jmlease1

eh. Phillies were league average in Ks this season and made the World Series. Top 8 teams this season in OPS+ were all playoff teams. 6 of top 8 in OPS+ in 2021 made the playoffs. 2019: 6 of the top 8 in OPS+ made the playoffs. 2018: top 6 in OPS+ all made the playoffs. (I skipped 2020 because the smaller sample size and expanded playoffs made it an outlier and a poor comp to the other seasons, but 6 of the top 8 in OPS+ made the playoffs then too) So I think OPS+ still says plenty about team success. If Gallo gets back to his Texas form, he'll be a useful player and could add more to the team than Kepler, whose spot he appears to be taking. There's good reasons to think he'll have a better chance than JD Martinez to recover his form (I think it's very possible they'll be close to each other in production at the plate, with Martinez having a small rebound and Gallo having a significant one) and he does add value in the field and Martinez does not. (Martinez might also be a detriment in the clubhouse?) But Martinez would potentially fill a need for right-handed slugging that the Twins are still short on. I'm not sure I want Martinez, but I would have understood it. I still don't understand the Gallo signing very well outside of a "$@*%&, we need to sign someone!!!" move.

I really don't know if Gallo can rebuild his shattered confidence and actually be a productive player at the plate again. I don't know if struggles at the plate this season will follow him into the field again (as they apparently did in NY). I'm not all that optimistic, but he has hit before and it is possible. Probably the best thing I can find about Gallo coming here is that he's ruined pitchers in the AL Central for his career. His OPS is great against the entire division. Of course, the unbalanced schedule is going away, so that's a bit less appealing...

Gallo might be better defensively than the young guys...or he might not. He wasn't particularly good defensively last season, and there's a reasonable chance we've already seen the best of Gallo as a defender. (he was bad with the Yankees in every possible way, including defensively. Dodgers he was better defensively) You're correct that Kepler is a different variant of Gallo when it comes to production, except that Kepler's floor seems to be higher (Kepler didn't have a good year and still produced 2.1 bWAR and Gallo fell apart so badly he clocked in at 0.5 bWAR. That's not a small difference). But despite Kepler's still solid overall production, we've all been talking about trading Kepler...so why would we pay more money for a higher-risk version? Wallner is a poor defender, but we really don't know what he is in MLB for sure. But if he's Joey Gallo at the plate, then he'd be doing it for a lot less money. Kirilloff and Larnach have been good when healthy, but if you wanted to hedge your bets against their health, you'd still want to do it with a RH bat, not another lefty. I'd much rather have Wil Myers at 2/$20M or even 3/$28M than Gallo at 1/$11M. Good grief, we're giving Gallo more money than he's ever made in a single season coming off a rotten year when he's a redundant player with significant risk (and injury history of his own). Gallo's a 2-time all-star, but in both years he had a hot start and did nothing in the second half (once because of injury, once because he was awful after the trade to the Yankees) so it's difficult to get too excited about that aspect as one to hang your hat on.

what does Rocco have to do with this moronic signing? Does anyone actually think that Rocco was agitating for the front office to sign Joey freakin' Gallo?!?

I hope Royce recovers quickly and completely from the ACL and Brooks hits so much that it's a real question. I do think Lee's bat is special and he's got that same kind of makeup that Lewis has where the stage is never too big for them. I hope Royce Lewis still has that special speed that makes his bat even more exciting. Force me to bet, and I go with Royce, just because I think the Twins won't rush Lee just for funsies, and I'm thinking that the infield will be relatively healthy the first half of the season. But I wouldn't be shocked at all if Lee goes full Miranda on us, destroys minor league pitching, and becomes the guy who gets called up when one of our middle infielders goes down for extended time.

I hate everything about this deal. I hate the fit. I hate the player. I hate the money. I hate the reek of desperation on it. I hate the fact that it pushes younger players down on the depth chart for no discernible reason. I hate the fact that it literally addresses none of the team's actual problems. I hate having to bet on a bounce back year from a player that's shown zero ability to do well with a new environment. (disaster when dealt to the Yankees. Disaster when dealt to the Dodgers) I hate spending millions on a player who hasn't been good in a year and a half. I hate adding in such an all or nothing bat. I don't know what they are doing here, and right now I don't care if there's a "plan", because this is just an idiotic move. It doesn't matter if they deal Kepler. It doesn't matter if they package together 2-3 of their many LH corner OF. We made a bad signing because we missed on all the big names and star power we thought we might be able to land. I don't care that's it's only 1 year, because a bad 1 year deal is still a bad deal. There are few singular moves that are truly fireable offenses in baseball...but this is close. This is validating every criticism of the front office this offseason. Right now, this is indefensible. Embarrassing.

Signing Nelson Cruz was also an excellent move. Maybe they just need to find a way to include Nelson Cruz in all Twins transactions. ?

Good grief, that was an elite trade. We got back a starting pitcher who is already a core part of the rotation for half a season of Nelson Cruz.

You sound like you're listening to Dan Barreiro too much. Never take your cues from a guy who targets players based on whether they come on to his show or not, thinks that walks don't matter for hitters, and uses RBIs as his most important hitting statistic.

It doesn't matter how long it took Gordon to become a full-time MLB player, he's still a better hitter than Farmer. And proven or not, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner are still better hitters than Farmer. You're adding new criteria to try and push Farmer into that top 5. Also? If you're using RBIs as your metric for who the best hitters are, I really can't help you.

Rodon wasn't the target I wanted; the injury history scares me more with him than basically any other player, especially after seeing the Twins squad get wrecked by injuries 2 years in a row. But since he cost only money, I think I would have gone for it with Correa off the board...but if he had his mind set on going to NY, then what are ya gonna do? I wonder where the Twins were sitting on this from a numbers perspective? Not that it really matters, but I'm always a little curious to see how high they might have been willing to go. Maybe we're better off not knowing, since it will likely only infuriate the people that hate everything about this front office even more... Down to Swansby. Looking like a poor off season to date: Farmer and Vazquez are not enough.

there's more value in having guys who can hit well at positions where most guys can't, though. It's part of why Mauer was so awesome at catcher. As long as Trout keeps hitting, yeah he'll still be hugely valuable even if he slides to a corner OF spot, but maybe he's no longer a perennial MVP. Part of what made Judge's season so special this year was he played most of it in CF, not RF.

Your hindsight is 20/20. Well done. Literally NO ONE offered Rodon anything close to that last year. Because, of course, he hadn't pitched a fully healthy season basically ever and his own team was apparently so concerned about his health that they declined to make a qualifying offer. Better fire every other front office than the Giants for not giving Rodon a 5 year deal in 2022!

At a certain point when you pay everyone SS money and only one of them is playing SS any longer it starts to get insane, though. Tatis is worth more at SS than he is in RF. If Bogaerts can't play SS in 3 years and ends up at DH, he better not lose anything off his bat.

I would go the 7/$150M if that's what it took to get it done. I think Swanson can be a good defender at SS well into his 30s and still hit enough to be value added and get to around that average of 3 bWAR, and that's worth the money. league average hitter at SS is better than people realize. If Lewis & Lee play well enough to force their way on the roster, there are all kinds of ways to find room, as you've noted. It doesn't ruin the payroll, either at that AAV. If Atlanta is trying to hold the line at $18M per year, and only 5 years...offer 6 at $125M and make him say no.

LA is trying to get under the luxury tax, though. Atlanta sounds like they have limits on their payroll lower than we might expect (remember, they let Donaldson go when he wanted to stay too, and it seemed $$ related). Atlanta may be regretting the $9M they owe Eddie Rosario right now... I think Lee is going to be a stud too, but he's barely played above A-ball. Royce is coming off a huge injury. Look, if we actually sign rodon...great. Patch it together at SS and hope the lineup stays healthy. but I wouldn't be ashamed at all at landing Swanson and figuring out where to play lee & lewis later.

sure, why not have 5 SS? New baseball strategy: stockpile all the best SS so that no other team has anyone good playing there. Lose to the Dodgers. Who is actually going to play SS for them out of Kim, Bogaerts, Tatis, and Machado anyways?

If the MLBTR analysis is right, I hope the twins are pushing hard, especially if Atlanta is only sitting around 6/$100M. They have plenty of space to drop 6/$120 with room to go up if Atlanta goes higher, and the deal should still be a good one towards the end. Swanson is a clear step below Correa & Turner (and Bogaerts). he's unlikely to consistently put up the kind of year he just had. But he is likely to be a 3+ bWAR player on average. I'd be quite happy to bring him in and not worry about SS for years.

Better bats than farmer on the twins roster right now: Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Larnach, Gordon, and Wallner. That's 7 even without considering Kepler (who even in a relatively poor year out-hit Farmer), Kirilloff (who is healthy, and it's fair to be skeptical, is a significantly better hitter), and Garlick (who should only have a part-time role). Let's not be hysterical here. I'm sure Gray & Maeda are drawing interest; I expect Mahle is as well. I wouldn't expect the twins to move any of them. But I would listen to offers, especially if the team is looking at the trade market for pitching because they might be able to get some of the prospect capital they need by moving Maeda, for example, to get someone better. Gray is not going anywhere unless the team stinks out the gate and is out of it by midseason, same with Mahle. but of course teams are asking. I'm also fairly certainly we're getting low-ball offers, especially from big market teams who think we should be grateful to send players to them for a used ball rack and the changes in their couch cushions.

yeah, we ain't getting both. odds aren't great on landing one of them. We're probably talking at least 6/$180M to get Rodon? (Yankess reportedly refused to do 7/$210M and "weren't close") I honestly have no idea what the deal looks like for Swanson any longer. I'd believe anything from 8/$180M to 10/$270M at this point. Would people be happy if we landed one of them at the top end of the salary range? They're both impact players. Or would the same people who are absolutely crushing the Twins front office right now for failing in the Correa hunt immediately turn and scream at them for throwing money away on overrated players and dooming the franchise? Personally, I would go 6/$180M on Rodon and roll the dice. But even that might not be enough.

A non-starter. He's not going anywhere; I'm 100% certain he would veto any trade, even if the Giants approached him with one. I can't see why the Twins would really want him; he's likely to be worse than Farmer and for a lot more money. You'd basically be acquiring a guy for leadership and hoping that his bat isn't trash. The Twins need offense more than anything else right now, and betting on Crawford is a terrible bet, even if you could somehow pry him out of SF, which again sounds nigh-impossible.

There seems to be this strange idea that the twins are this very dogmatic team that insists that every player do things only one way, and there's very little evidence that this front office and on-field staff operate that way. They'll ask player to make significant changes when a player is doing poorly at something, and tinker with their approaches to try and generate improvement...but where exactly is it that they've changed a player's approach that's been very successful? Who exactly have they ruined by having someone try something new or different?

i suspect Ted wrote the piece before the Vazquez signing was announced and an edit was missed after it had been queued up for publication. Happens.

I see 2 markets, then. One for teams in big markets with the ability to spend $200-250M+ annually while still being profitable, and one for everyone else. That's also real.

last year they signed an elite SS. it's a little unfair to say they "passed" on the SS; it's not like they weren't in the game? Part of the problem for the Twins is that the market re-set this off-season...possibly. Deals like Correa, Judge, Turner, Bogaerts used to be maybe 2 guys in an off-season, and 10+ years was even more rare. there's only been 22 contracts over 10 years in MLB history, and we just had 4 of them signed to kick in next year. There's only been 8 contracts in MLB history longer than 10 years...and half of them have just happened. That says to me that some teams are changing the market, but it's unclear whether this changes it for the whole league. If the new "market rate" is 12-14 year contracts at top of the scale AAV...then yeah, Twins probably won't be paying market rates for great players. But I suspect only about 8 teams in baseball will. So what's the real market?