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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Julien probably goes back down first, he's got an option and need to play every day. Castro goes down when Polanco comes back. Garlick is probably the next to be dropped; with his contract he will likely slide through and can come off the 40-man again, and I don't see him sticking unless Larnach is still slumping. With no options, Gordon gets more rope, same with Kepler. Twins fans need to get right with the idea that teams simply won't toss away an asset for nothing unless they have no other choice. Looking forward to having Kirilloff back on the squad, I'm a huge fan of his ability at the plate. Any time his wrist has been ok he's stung the ball, and hopefully his Kirk Gibson operation has fixed it for him.
  2. jmlease1
    very happy to see Noah Miller off to a good start at the plate. That "HR" is inflating his SLG a bit, but he's still off to a very nice start at the dish, getting hits and taking some walks. The glove looks pretty smooth with him, so it really comes down to how much his hit tool develops. If he can keep making consistent good contact I think we'll all be pretty pleased. (I'm less concerned about his power production at age 20) Enlow is off to a good start as well. It'll be interesting to see where he finishes the season. Maybe he's finally all the way back from injury. Dude has had some tough breaks: missed a key developmental year in 2020, major injury in 2021 after starting the season looking strong, tough year breaking back in as a pitcher in 2022 while also moving up a level, to getting left off the 40-man this season. He's 24 and we've been waiting and hoping for a long time with him, but if he's able to get it back together for the full season then he's an interesting player to watch.
  3. jmlease1
    With the top or the red Sox order featuring 3 LH hitters in the next 4 (including the first 2) projecting Thielbar to take the 7th makes a ton of sense. So really you're talking about maybe flipping Lopez & Jax for 6th v 8th...unless you wanted to put Pagan or Moran out against the Red Sox in the 6th, but that puts you in a different kind of problem where you're "saving" one of your best relievers for a 10th inning that might never happen. Did the manager really make an error here or did things just get weird in the 8th with Jax on the mound and it went sideways? Gray was really struggling last night, but did a fine job gutting through 5. Scattered a lot of baserunners and wriggled out of trouble. Offense needs to do better, that's just a reality. But sale was taking everything the ump was giving him...and he got a fair amount.
  4. jmlease1
    Winning road trips are great. If you go 41-40 on the road and 51-30 at home that's a nice 92 win season.
  5. jmlease1
    Feeling generally positive about the Twins chances in Boston. Would love for them to jump all over Sale a player I've never liked. Playing Boston right now is a great reminder of just how wrong i was about Trevor Story being a perfect fit for the Twins that they should have gone all in on.
  6. jmlease1
    I think it was a fine trade for both teams. Twins needed a starter, badly. LA needed bullpen help, especially cheap bullpen help. Both teams got what they wanted. Maeda's injury keeps this from being a total unqualified success for the Twins; instead of getting 4 seasons of a quality starter with the ability to be a front-line playoff pitcher, we're looking at more like 2 1/2, which is a bummer. But he was gold in 2020 and a key performer on a division winning team. Graterol hasn't been the lock-down flamethrower that can anchor the back of a bullpen like LA hoped, but he hasn't been bad either. more of a solid guy that a star, he's missed some time and arguably under performed his stuff a little, but as is more and more clear: 100mph doesn't mean that much in MLB if it's flat and straight. He's a bit too hittable for me. I think both teams are fairly happy with the results of the trade. If forced to pick a winner, I'd say it's the Twins because starters are just more valuable and harder to find than relievers.
  7. jmlease1
    This year's efforts could significantly change their FA signing track record; Correa (he was a FA after all), Vazquez, Solano, and Gallo (even if I'm still queasy about Gallo) are all FA signings that are looking pretty smart so far. We'll see. I definitely like the extension for Lopez, feels very different than say the one we made for Hughes.
  8. jmlease1
    Very exciting news! The numbers are very good for the twins, IMHO: Lopez is a quality starter and has already shown he's worth that kind of money. Whether you like fWAR or bWAR (I tend to like bWAR more for pitchers as showing what they actually did and their value, and fWAR for trying to get a feel for future value) Lopez has already been worth that kind of contract that last two seasons, and that's even with him missing substantial time in 2021. I'm frankly amazed that it's only a 4 year deal at this money; I honestly would have expected 5-6 years as more likely, or higher money at fewer years. That's really good business for the team. At the same time it's life-changing, generational money for Lopez and his family, so I can understand his desire to get locked in and guaranteed. He'll still have an opportunity to test free agency at an age where guys can still command huge money if he performs anywhere near his capacity over this contract. Locking in Lopez long-term feels like a great move. The interesting comp is Berrios, who was a more accomplished and consistent pitcher when Toronto acquired him than Lopez was when the Twins acquired him. Lopez might have been seen as having a higher ceiling, but Berrios had been both consistent and healthy. Twins got an extra 1/2 season in control by acquiring Lopez in the off-season, but otherwise...lots of similarities. Berrios got a longer and higher AAV for his extension (which to date has been not so great), so this is interesting. the Rodon comp is interesting as well: Rodon had probably more significant health risks, but had also proven that ceiling after 2022. He also had more negotiating power as a free agent, but it's a huge difference in years and dollars. If that's the going rate for starting pitchers...this looks like good business indeed.
  9. jmlease1
    MLB will do nothing. Rocco probably gets no more than a token fine for the ejection, since he didn't cross any lines or get abusive. I expect the umpiring crew to do nothing about Cole today. Will Cole try to get a little advantage with extra rosin or whatever rosin compound NY may or may not be using? Dunno, but nothing would shock me. But I would be watching his spin rates pretty closely if I were the Twins...
  10. jmlease1
    The change in spin rates certainly is suspicious. Can't say I'm surprised to see pitchers still trying to push the limits and bend the rules. Rocco handled this pretty well, putting a spotlight on likely cheating by the Yankees but without crossing any lines on integrity. By couching his ejection based on a violation of procedure (from his perspective) he's standing up for his side without questioning the ump's ethics. Offense didn't get it done, Mahle struggled and it wasn't a great game for the Twins. But a win today washes it all away. And going in to the series I'm pretty sure most of us would have been perfectly ok with a split.
  11. jmlease1
    I'll give you Paddack, whom I rate, and I think will be in the rotation next season. But I think those bastards at Rice ruined Canterino's arm and he'll never be able to stay healthy enough to start. He's probably going to have to go to the 'pen, and it's a damn shame.
  12. jmlease1
    Seriously. With Varland, SWR, and Ober in AAA we might even have 8. Rocco has done a fine job with the pitching staff this season but more importantly the starters are a) deserving of the longer rope, and b) much more talented. Could this be the Year of Lopez for the Twins? Jorge is looking back to form and Pablo has been a stud. Really liked Jorge's work against the Yankees last night. Velocity was great, he worked guys, he's not giving free passes, and he's trusting his stuff.
  13. jmlease1
    Really, really good win last night. Liked how every time a big question was asked the Twins had an answer. Varland looked wobbly to start and just when you wondered if he was going to get rocked against the Evil Empire, he cleans it up and settles into a quality start. Offense looked like it might have gone silent after the big explosion the other night, and then it just started chipping away. Big question on whether Pagan could handle an important inning and he got it done. Jorge Lopez is in a good run of form right now and looks like the reliever we were hoping for when we traded for him. That's going to be huge. And just a great game by Correa. He really looked like the all-star SS. Some very nice defensive plays, the bat was cooking, he was the full package last night.
  14. jmlease1
    I think our rotation last season was totally adverse to the way anyone wants to manage, LOL.
  15. jmlease1
    After 2 starts last season, Sonny Gray landed on the IL. Ryan wasn't bad, but was struggling to get deeper into the games because of his pitch counts. Archer only pitched into the 5th one time in the first two months. Bundy did well the first 3 outings, but it was unsustainable. Ober only stayed healthy for 3 weeks. No question that the rotation is deeper, stronger, and more reliable this season.
  16. jmlease1
    Alex Isola is off to a nice start at AA. Be interesting to see where the Twins have him as a catcher by the end of the season, because if he can hit consistently and be solid behind the plate I'd feel a lot better about our short-term catching depth.
  17. jmlease1
    They did make a rule change to try to put some guardrails on it, since it was happening so much more. YMMV on whether they should tighten it up more? (I don't think ending it completely is ever going to happen, and that's ok by me) Joe Ryan had an excellent game last night. He was aggressive in attacking the zone and used that huge lead like a hold 'em player with a huge stack bullying the small stacks. The Rizzo HR was the only flaw and it was a good AB by a good hitter. I love what we're seeing from pretty much every aspect of Ryan's game right now. The WHIP is fantastic, the K/9 are up, the HR/9 is very manageable, and he's chewing up the innings. Amazing job by the offense in jumping all over the rookie pitcher. Great work in grabbing that early lead and then going into overdrive to make the game feel out of reach in the first dang inning. Great start to the series, and really fun to watch.
  18. jmlease1
    My guess on the multi-inning aspect is that they're looking at seeing if a longer outing will let him settle in and refine his command in a way that going out to get 3 outs won't? I don't know if that's going to work, but it's an interesting idea. I really think Alcala just needs innings and appearance to get on track. He basically didn't pitch at all last season, and I think what we're seeing from him is a lot of rust from a guy who wasn't a fully developed pitcher in the first place. With Jorge Lopez and Griffin Jax both looking good on the right side, there's room for him to stick to mostly lower-leverage outings and get the rust out. The biggest problem Alcala is having right now is with his changeup, a pitch he was just starting to get a handle on to neutralize lefties when he got hurt. I don't think he's found a comfort level with it yet this season and he needs it to be effective against lefties. The slider and sinker both look good, even if his command isn't there yet and the velocity is down a little on the fastballs. We'll see where he is at the end of May.
  19. jmlease1
    But last season we'd already lost Gray after his second start and Alcala after his second appearance. (and Archer was Archer) The good health of the pitchers to date is a real boon.
  20. jmlease1
    Seriously. You'd think the Twins were 4-8, not 8-4. Every game thread there's people jumping in after a WIN declaring that the other shoe is about to drop and they can't possibly win the next series. Sweep KC on the road? "Who cares, it's KC, doesn't count." Win a series against Houston? "They weren't healthy, doesn't count." Win the series against division rival ChiSox? "It's unsustainable, we're going to get destroyed in NY." This team is probably going to play more close games with lower scoring this season: the pitching is (much) better, but the offense isn't there (yet). Gray did a solid job on a day where he was sick and fighting it. Still gutted his way through 5 and got it done. We're 12 games in and the starters have gone 5+ in every single game. When was the last time that happened? And for all the complaints about injuries...no injuries to date on the pitching staff. Still the exact same 13 guys, and they're all healthy.
  21. jmlease1
    Castro is filler for me, only reason he started with the team was it might be better from a developmental side to let Julien & Wallner ease in with some time at AAA and the Twins absolutely don't care about his options. I was skeptical about the Gallo signing, but so far that's worked out excepting for injury. Solano was a surprise for me, but with Polanco and Kirilloff being behind, it makes even more sense, and after last season where we had some many fringe players get significant time, a deeper veteran group doesn't offend me at all. Still not sold on Pagan, though. but as good as the depth has been to get us through several early injuries, the offense still needs some gas. Polanco is a bigger loss than I think some people realized and Nick Gordon has disappointed so far.
  22. jmlease1
    I'd say Lopez is the story from this game. My goodness, he dominated once he got rolling. Nice to see that he and Vazquez to get a grip on things when the 1st inning wasn't going to plan, and they got it done. The changeup looked really good, he was spotting the curve, and then later the sweeper got back into play as he got deeper into the game and was more comfortable out there.
  23. jmlease1
    There's nothing unreasonable being said here. He's a pitcher who has had slightly reverse splits for his career, but has also performed like a #2 starter. He's added a new pitch to his arsenal that looks like it may be more effective for him against same-sided hitters, and his velocity is up. If he was already a number #2 and may have improved...how is he not looking the part of a ace? If your criticism is just that he's only had a couple of starts, I hope you're patrolling the boards smacking down the people raging at every hitter who has started out slow too, because you can't have it both ways.
  24. jmlease1
    Lopez has looked really good to start the season, exactly what the twins were hoping for I think. If the sweeper is a for real pitch for him and lets him completely drop the less effective cutter from his arsenal that could be a big advantage. It'll be interesting to see if it mostly replaces the curveball he's thrown (with good success) or if both pitches stick around. the changeup he has still looks pretty fantastic as well, so if he's able to get a little more mileage out of his fastball and backing it up with 2 really tough swing & miss offerings in the sweeper and the changeup, he could be in for a pretty big season. I'll admit that the velocity increase will be more meaningful if he's able to keep it up at midseason.
  25. jmlease1
    This should be interesting. ChiSox have hit pretty well to start the season, but their vaunted rotation has let them down. A split with Houston is a fine result, especially on the road, but losing 2 of 3 against the unimpressive Giants at home, then dropping 2 of 3 against the always pathetic Pirates on the road is not good. Cease is an absolute beast, but the Twins rotation should be able to keep the team in the game. Hopefully Gallo is able to play in this series to add a little more LH thump to the lineup and Nick Gordon is able to break out from his slow start. I still feel like Chicago is the 3rd team in this division; I don't like their depth and I think they're going to miss Abreu's bat more than they will be helped by fixing some of the defensive issues. That bullpen looks much more vulnerable without Liam Hendriks (good luck to him on his cancer fight, and congrats on ringing the bell on his way out of hospital!). On the other hand, no LaRussa to exploit is something I will miss.
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