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Reptevia

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Everything posted by Reptevia

  1. Reptevia
    Our OF is great??? We have a huge question in left. Two guys with injury histories who have too small of a sample size to really evaluate if they’re any good. CF, when you combine Buxton and whomever’s numbers is average over the whole season. RF is missing a MLB hitter. That’s “great”? Infield was not average last year. They were well below average, even with Correa. Catcher is missing a MLB player or two. Oddly, the only thing that looks ok is the starting rotation.
  2. Reptevia
    I don’t see this lineup scoring enough runs to be above .500. Too many bad or hugely questionable players.
  3. Reptevia
    Like we’re finding with all aspects of this team: roster construction matters! Way too many flyers. How many Hyundai’s do you have to watch being towed before you buy a Toyota?
  4. Reptevia
    I would rather stand pat on SP and go get an actual MLB catcher.
  5. Reptevia
    None of it makes sense for this team. Correa or some “Ace”. It only makes sense for a small market team if they’re one or two players away. The Twins are at least 6 players away. Most on here are ready to pencil in Larnach, Kiriloff, Lee, Lewis et al on a minuscule sample size. On the other hand, most want to keep Kepler despite a substantial sample size indicating his decline. None of it is realistic.
  6. Reptevia
    The same ‘ok on the forums…”They need to go buy an ace or #2”!!!! When has that ever happened? Should the current staff stay even a little healthy, they should be an average staff. That’s more than a lot of teams have. Bottom line is, we’re not one pitcher or one SS away from playoff contenders. We are sub-par at RF, LF, 1b, C, SS and probably CF. Without a competent backup to Buxton, CF over the whole year is roughly League replacement level. Given all the current lineup needs, is it a wise time to be trading away all their potential replacements?
  7. Reptevia
    How much can we get for a defensive replacement type fielder? I’ve said it before, Billy Hamilton can do what Kepler does for league minimum. We will be unable to get a ML player for Kepler even up. Having good defensive “metrics “ at the 2nd least important position isn’t going to bring anything back. Maybe a former prospect that hasn’t so far panned out…
  8. Reptevia
    If the rules go out the window when it’s most important to win, how much value do those rules have?
  9. Reptevia
    Well, batting average always used to be a big part of it…
  10. Reptevia
    It’s essentially a lottery ticket. Twin’s “Win” if Correa sticks at short for 3/4 of the contract, doesn’t regress due to age, doesn’t get hurt etc. Any of those thing go wrong, and you have an overpaid 3b. The albatross people are referencing is Mauer. Remember him? The most overpaid 1b in the league? If buying lottery tickets is the only small market strategy, better off gambling on young guys like Miranda and Ryan etc. Lock them up for 8-10 years now when it’s affordable.
  11. Reptevia
    Probably my favorite lineup I’ve seen so far. I think your payroll is off by about $50M though. The thing I like the most is you got rid of the players I want gone.
  12. Reptevia
    I really can’t get on board with any roster with Kiriloff or Larnach pencilled into the starting lineup. Neither has proven anything at MLB level, and Kiriloff is a huge question mark. Correa will not sign with Twins and FO will not sign a high dollar SP. Celestino is not a MLB player.
  13. Reptevia
    The old betting adage is: “Always bet the trend”. That said, the Twins are not going out and signing or trading for a true #1 or #2. They will probably roll with Kepler which I think is a mistake. We need a real backup to Buxton. We need a proven LF. We need a MLB catcher. We need a SS who can field. I’m not sure it’s realistic for Lewis to spend significant time at short ever again. Hard to say what they will do, but trading away half the team seems very unlikely.
  14. Reptevia

    The Twins Need Hitters

    Reptevia commented on Greglw3's blog entry in Greg Allen

    Agreed. Pitching is the actual strength of this team. There are questions marks at nearly every position. Also agree that keeping Hamilton over Kepler is a good call.
  15. Reptevia
    It’s even odds at best whether Kiriloff ever plays again. Larnach is about as sure. There’s always Wallner! Cave and Celestino do not belong on a MLB roster. Gordon is a 4th or 5th guy. I would add Kepler to the last two but for his defense, but Hamilton would be cheaper for defensive replacement.
  16. Reptevia
    I notice no one is mentioning Dobnak or Smeltzer for rotation or bullpen. Are the Twins just going to release those two?
  17. Reptevia
    I think they can afford to put a Gordon at SS until another option is ready. There are much bigger issues to hash out. We need 2.5 OF guys. Larnach May or likely may not ever amount to a dependable OF option. Without a better backup for Buxton, CF isn’t elite. Kepler is a 4th OF defensive replacement at this point. It would be cheaper to just keep Hamilton. There isn’t a legitimate MLB catcher on the roster or minors. IF defense was ranked 29th? The entire lineup is a mess or at least in flux. Time to rebuild.
  18. Reptevia
    Well written and well articulated.
  19. Reptevia
    Between Buxton and whoever else they were forced to run out there, Twins got about 2 WAR from CF. That’s worth about $15m, so probably correct, except whatever we paid Celestino was lost money because he was replacement level and has no other reason to be in the show except to spell Buxton.
  20. Reptevia
    I think it’s a little early to be penciling Lee into the MLB lineup. Didn’t Mauer spend 3 years in the minors? Do we really want to put Lewis with a twice surgically cobbled back together ACL at SS? Because of his “range”? I hope he has a full recovery, but he may be a bit of a ticking bomb, especially at short. Palacios clearly isn’t MLB ready. There does seem to be a bit of pitching that may pan out. I think pitching is this teams strength going forward. There are several questions that will need to be addressed if next year is to be better than this one. Sounds like there is some help in the minors in the next couple of years. Like I said to myself before the Vikings/Eagles game: this year feels different…
  21. Reptevia
    I’m not sure what you’re disagreeing with. For the most part, what I stated above is based on stats and performance. It’s not an opinion. Would left field be better if patrolled by Larnach or Kiriloff who have proved nothing at the MLB level? Possibly. I just take issue how many on here take prospects with extremely small sample sizes and place way outsized expectations on how they would perform. I’m just trying to look at it pragmatically. Larnach, Kiriloff and Lewis are not locks for the all-star team. All three may never contribute much at all. It is unknown at this early part of their careers. No, Buxton is not the best player in baseball. Far from it. With him and the backups we’ve run out there, CF has produced about 2 WAR. Not bad, but far from the best. “Not going to get into the specifics as I really don't want to write a lengthy text, but given good health I believe the only position really needing work is catcher...as I said previously.” I, and the stats, simply disagree with this statement. Unless the goal is a losing record.
  22. Reptevia
    You must be joking. We have legitimate questions at almost every position. CF-Buxton has a 4 War , but Celestino is at 0. Buxton had slightly more PA, so call it a 2. LF is a huge question mark because we really don’t have anyone reliable above average to play there. RF is slightly above average only because of Kepler’s defense. Huge falloff after him. Kepler’s offensive WAR has declined every year since 2019, and there’s really no reason to believe that won’t continue. Keep Kepler or Billy Hamilton? 3B is slightly above average with Urshela. SS is ok with Correa, but Palacios is not MLB ready. 2B is a crap shoot with an aging Polanco. 1B isn’t well patrolled by Miranda or Arraez, but it is what it is. Catcher is below league average with no help or reason to believe it will improve in-house. Ironically, the pitching staff is the strength of this club going forward. I think Miranda and Duran should be locked up with Dobnakesque contracts. That is how small market teams keep players. Low-risk high-reward contracts that are entered into before players really establish themselves. There needs to be answers as to why virtually everyone was hurt this year. There also needs to be a re-evaluation of how they are using metrics and how rigidly they are employed. The FO is not going to go out and sign a legitimate #1 and 2. They may go out and sign a few depth SP aka Bundy and Archer. It might even be them. They were signed to be 4 and 5 guys. They’ve actually done that at a reasonable level. Another legitimate RP will probably be signed. The big questions are on offense.
  23. Reptevia
    Wow! After only one start in the show! Was that you Jimbo that signed Dobnak to his contract?
  24. Reptevia
    Larnach, Kiriloff and Lewis have not played enough to be considered reliable. Kepler has been a 4th OF defensive replacement type player for 3 years. Re: the quote above- You have no business citing “counting categories “ in these forums! Don’t you know that the only thing that matters is potential??? “Nobody gets credit for what they should’ve done”?!?! Have you read the comments on here? EVERYBODY gets credit for potential! Correa’s offensive numbers are little better than Urshela’s, but on here, he has “earned” his contract. Now stop bringing up “reality”! It’s skewing the metrics!
  25. Reptevia
    What twinsdr2021 said.
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