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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    Against a tough right handed starter I wouldn't be surprised to see Castro get the start in Center Field over Taylor. That has happened semi-frequently the past few months. Of course, this assumes that Lewis is able to come back healthy and Castro isn't needed at 3B. I suspect Castro will start at least one wildcard game somewhere, position to be determined.
  2. Road trip
    Well, sure, as professionals the Rays will try. Hitters will try to hit, and pitchers will throw as well as they can, but unless Baltimore loses their next four in a row the AL East race is over (magic # is 1). Management will be different though. I seriously doubt the Rays start Eflin on Sunday, which would be his normal rest. They will save him for game 1 or 2 of the wildcard round. Likewise, any regular who is nursing a minor injury will get a day or two off this weekend. Bullpen workloads will also be managed carefully on Saturday and Sunday, because a manager must put his own team's interest first. We would expect Rocco to do the same. Having said all that, could the Jays blow it anyway? Sure, it could happen. Just not real likely.
  3. Road trip
    FanGraphs has the Jays at 95% in the playoffs, using more advanced math than I have. It's possible for the Jays to miss out, but they'll have to flop pretty badly. Their last 5 are at home against the Yankees (who are a depressed mess...love it) and the Rays (who will likely be resting starters for the playoffs), so it seems likely the Jays should win at least 2 out of 5.. Then, the Astros and Mariners almost inevitably will lose a game or two given their difficult remaining schedules against teams fighting for playoff spots (one will certainly lose when they play each other tonight).
  4. Road trip
    I'll second comments choosing Funderburk over Paddack, especially if we draw the lefty-heavy Astros (Alvarez, Tucker, and Brantley) or Rangers (need a spare lefty for Seager). The Mariners don't have many scary left handers, nor do the Jays... so maybe you consider leaving Funderburk off the roster if either of them are the opponent. I'd really want to see two good appearances from Paddack before adding him. As nice as it was to see him throw hard last night, the 2nd inning was a pretty rough. Too many pitches down the middle that got hit very hard.
  5. Road trip
    Ober struggling? Last 5 games... Aug 15: 2 runs in 5 innings Aug 22: 2 runs in 5 innings Aug 27: 5 runs in 4 innings (yup, I'll give you this one) *** arm rest / reset*** Sept 15: 2 runs in 5 innings Sept 20: 2 runs in 5 innings Seems to me Ober has been remarkably consistent, in a pretty good way. The Twins were in a good position to win all of his starts except Aug 27. Even Lopez has a clunker in his last 5 starts. I can see why some consider Ober our 5th best starter. It's close after the top 2. However, I also think Ober (or Maeda, or Ryan) is likely the best 5th starter in MLB this year, and would be a solid #3 on most teams.
  6. Road trip
    The Twins alternating their catchers this year has been... genius (didn't expect that adjective, did you?). The Twins have only two major league caliber catchers in the system, and they managed to keep them both healthy for the entire year. That's remarkable, and lucky. They had depth everywhere else, but not at catcher. Just think about the injury list this year, based on the anticipated starting lineup back in March (going around the diamond): Kiriloff, Polanco, Correa, Miranda (and Lewis), Gallo, Buxton/Taylor, and Kepler. Every one of these players missed time on the IL, and many of them missed substantial time. Thankfully depth payed off everywhere else, while the two catchers stayed healthy and fresh. Partly this was due to the rotation plan, and partly due to luck. When do we ever get luck? This year at the catcher spot. As for the playoffs? I'd like to see more of Jeffers, but it is still a defense-first position and if there are starting pitcher(s) who really prefer throwing to Vazquez I'd be willing to consider that.
  7. Road trip
    Agree with Woof Bronzer. Great starters, but arguably the least reliable bullpen north of Arlington. Maybe Maeda will strengthen the pen. Maybe Varland will be great in his new role. But I can't head into the postseason confident that the Twins bullpen can consistently pitch 4 good innings, especially if it is the Pagan & Jax show for a good hunk of it. If starters are going to be pulled after 5 innings... well, hopefully the Twins offense continues to score..
  8. Road trip
    Regarding day games, MLB and the networks may choose wildcard game times depending on the size of the fan base of the road teams. Tampa will be the other host team in the AL (unless Baltimore falls apart and finishes 2nd). Tampa's fan base is even smaller than Minnesota's. In the NL, Milwaukee will host, another small fan base, probably smaller. The other host will likely be Philly or the Cubs, which I agree will be strong contenders for a prime time spot. There is also a chance Arizona hosts, which would be another small fan base. If the Twins were to draw Toronto... yup, almost guarantee a day game. If they draw Houston though? I'll bet that ends up at night.
  9. Road trip
    I suspect Floro loses his spot, if Twins need to add Paddack or Alcala (and I'm skeptical on both). Funderburk would be claimed immediately if he were removed from the 40 man roster. We aren't deep in lefties, so he's absolutely a must-keep for next year, even if he may not make the post season roster this year (although I'd be tempted to roster him depending on how much left-handed power our future opponent turns out to have). The other potential 40 man cuts would be Celestino (possible) and Gallo (too obvious, so it won't happen).
  10. Road trip
    There was a lot of angst on this site when the Twins traded Rortvedt. Unfortunately he isn't even coming close to Drew Butera level offense. Still young enough to improve, but I'm starting to doubt he will ever hit enough to even be a backup MLB catcher.
  11. Road trip
    I've said this in other threads, but I'd take Ober instead of Paddock if we are converting another starter to a relief role. Paddock has never relieved in MLB (the same is true of Ober), is recovering from surgery, and has an inferior career track record to Ober (and frankly it isn't that close). I simply don't get the fascination with including Paddock as a relief option. I know some think we need to save Ober to potentially start game one of the next series, but that's putting the cart before the horse. Worry about the next series AFTER winning the first one... Take your best 10 or 11 pitchers for the first series.
  12. Road trip
    Yes, good list. I remember many wishing for McKay (perhaps I did too...not sure). He looked like a Ohtani type of player, but it appears he may neither hit nor pitch much in the majors. I think I'd take Lewis over Greene again... but as good as Lewis has been this year it isn't an no-brainer call. Greene has the stuff to be great if he can improve his control. I suppose Varsho is the best so far in terms of accumulated WAR, but he's already 27 and probably won't get much better anymore. A career OPS+ of 95 for a guy that is mostly a corner outfielder is... uninspiring. Pretty confident both Lewis and Greene will surpass him easily unless their health fails completely.
  13. Road trip
    My heart wants to believe. My head says no, he hasn't been healthy or very productive all year. It's the playoffs. Listen to your head.
  14. Road trip
  15. Road trip
    arraez.jfif
  16. Road trip
    Nice job Polanco!
  17. Road trip
    Arguably worse...
  18. Road trip
    Yeah, I guess I can see that. They are probably going to be a bit more careful after last night. But it also begs the question, if Julien's legs are that shaky, why is he DHing in a semi-unimportant game when there are a wealth of other options on the bench (Larnach, Wallner, Kiriloff)?
  19. Road trip
    I'd blame Rocco.... but of course he isn't on the bench today. Yes, I'd like to see Wallner hit in the 9th rather than any of the scheduled hitters.
  20. Road trip
    Glad to get one run back, but another missed opportunity to add more. Bats are just not quite there today. One more inning...
  21. Road trip
    While Hawk and Dick can't seem to wrap their brain around the concept, the call reversal was correct based on the rule book. We are all focused on the fact that the Twins got an out from the (non) play. But the correct call is a strike. He offered at the pitch (which makes it a strike), and then got hit on the fingers. The play was dead at that point. We may not like the rule, or like the outcome, but it is correct based on the rule book. If he had bunted more successfully to score the runner, I suspect our bench would have reviewed the replay and may have asked for a review/reversal, hoping to change it to a strike.
  22. Road trip
    Yes, I am not more than mildly concerned about Correa, unlike our other injured players. I've struggled with Plantar Fascitis off and on for the past five years. I'm no longer an athlete in any sense of the word, but I've had plenty of athletic injuries over the years. Plantar Fascitis is absolutely the strangest injury I've ever experienced. Bad pain for one to five days, then maybe a little less, and then a good day or tthree where it is almost absent. But then it comes back... Rinse, repeat, over and over and over. Sometimes it will even disappear for several months, but it is always lurking. In my case at least, it is apparently chronic. There are a hundred tricks, stretches, massages, remedies and treatments, none of which work for everyone, or even work consistently from one bout of Plantar to the next. Rest helps, somewhat, but when it is bad just getting out of bed and taking that first step is pretty painful. It is just odd.. Correa is a gamer. He'll play through pain in the playoffs. He may be less effective though, which is likely what we have been witnessing all season.
  23. Road trip
    Also somewhat anecdotal... take a look on BRef sometime at MLB team roster stats from the 70s, 80s, and 90s. In a typical year a team would utilize 15 -18 pitchers over the course of a year. A few teams would be more fortunate, and only need a dozen! For example, 40 years ago, a bad Twins team trying out youngsters, but only used 14 pitchers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/1983.shtml That's unthinkable today. The Twins currently have a half dozen pitchers on the IL. They've used 28 pitchers this year, and this was a low number. Last year they utilized 39.
  24. Road trip
    I'm absolutely taking Ober. One poster called him one of the Twins "10 Best" pitchers. I'd probably put him in the top 5 or 6. (Duran plus the other 4 starters) I'd roster him, simultaneously hoping events play out to allow Ober to be saved for game 1 of the next series (if the first round goes 3 games), but keeping him available. Ober is the "break glass in case of emergency" pitcher... like an early line drive off of a starting pitcher's ankle. Or an extra inning playoff game. Look, we know Rocco is going to burn through relievers pitching one inning or less. He's done it all year, and he will likely give starters less leash in the postseason. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where it's the top of the 10th, and Varland, Pagan, Jax, Thielbar, and Duran have all been used already. I'd want Ober available for that scenario alone. He can go multiple innings in a potentially long game. Remember, no "ghost runners" in post-season MLB games...
  25. Road trip
    Yes, I suspect this math is correct. My order of preference is pretty much the same, but I fear we will get Gallo. There isn't much time to get Buxton ready, but I suppose it could still happen. I mean, Dick Bremer puts out a daily public service announcement that "The Twins still hope to have Buxton back in center field this year", generally no later than the 4th inning of the game. Hope is not a plan for managing a team, but perhaps these seemingly scripted statements keep some casual fans interested.
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