Road trip

No real disagreement. He's a 6th starter, but that still has some value. I can't identify a clearly better alternative waiting in AAA. Ryan rather desperately needed a reset/rest. There are innings to eat in August and September. If the Twins can find a way to win a few of his starts, and they've already won one, it's all good. Now if Keuchel makes an appearance in a playoff game... then we have a problem.

Agreed, so long as he doesn't fall apart over the next two months. If Kepler finishes somewhere around his current OPS+ of 108, he would likely get around 12 - 15 million as a free agent on a one year, and likely could find a 3 year offer somewhere. He's still a good fielder, and the list of potential free agent outfielders is rather slim. He's a bargain at 10M. I think we all look at his average/power numbers and think, "this is all we get from a corner outfield spot?" Truth is, his production is above average. Pitchers are still dominating the game. We've got to forget about the video game numbers that hitters put up a few years ago.

Keuchel is unlikely to be very good for the duration of this year. Varland is the alternative 6th starter, and he is also unlikely to be very good (at the MLB level) for the duration of this year. As noted by others above, perhaps a half dozen starts will be needed from the 6th starter. I'm ok rolling with Keuchel, even if I don't expect much. He will likely have some success like yesterday, as well as some games where he gets lit up. The same would be true with Varland, but I might trust him even less for the duration of 2023. His last 3 June starts with the Twins were pretty brutal. Now, I'll be very annoyed if Keuchel turns this into a MLB contract for 2024 (unless he is unexpectedly awesome). For '24 I'd much rather give Varland a chance. But for this year, in the few starts remaining, I'm ok with the path chosen.

I'm with you. I think it's unlikely that Gray retires, but not impossible. He's already unimaginably wealthy by an average person's standards. 62 million in major league salaries according to Baseball Reference, plus whatever he made in bonus money as a first round draft pick. His future grandchildren are already set for life, barring some really bad spending habits. Gray will be 34 next year. He wouldn't be the first ballplayer to retire when he was still wanted. Buster Posey would be one recent example of a player who retired when he clearly was still productive.

Doing nothing is not an option. Somebody goes.... today... by 6:45. Barring a setback Polanco is scheduled to be activated prior to tonight's game. Options: 1. Return Wallner or Julien to AAA. Sending down either is absurd, as they are the two hottest hitters on the roster. There are no other optionable position players. 2. Trade (or DFA) somebody 3. (Theoretically) a DL stint for someone. It won't be Buxton, who just returned from leave. I suppose it could be Kirilloff if his shoulder is worse than originally thought. Barring some large deal it seems logical to try to get something, anything, for Joey Gallo. The front office has known this day was coming for awhile. Hence, the "Hey, look! Gallo can still play centerfield" advertisements in recent lineups.

Yeah, Kaat and Tiant. Just a hair before my time of following the Twins, but wow, talk about epic bad decisions to save paltry sums of money! As much as we may complain about current ownership, the Pohlad family is much better than Griffith!

With another nice game yesterday Wallner now has .8 BWAR in only 39 at bats. That's more than Gallo has accumulated in the last two years combined! Maybe rather than considering Wallner a trade candidate the Twins should just give him all of Gallo's playing time..

The Carew trade was bad, but the Twins were somewhat stuck. Carew wanted out, as Griffith was dismantling the team and refused to pay anyone in the early free agency era (see Hisle, Bostock, etc). Of course, under these circumstances the Twins were going to be terrible anyway. Had they not traded him Carew would almost certainly have left as a free agent. It hurt emotionally to lose Carew, but the late Griffith/Met Stadium era was going to be hopeless regardless simply due to the owner's refusal to recognize the reality of rising player salaries in the new free agent era. Now, Tom Brunansky for Tommy Herr... oof, it still hurts decades later. That trade was totally unnecessary and self-inflicted. The Twins were coming off of their 1987 title, and *thought* that Tommy Herr would thrive on the MetroDome's turf. They made the trade in late April, and it disrupted team chemistry very badly. Turned out that Tommy Herr HATED leaving St Louis (where he was a fan favorite) to play in Minnesota, and his performance reflected that. Bruno had also been a fan favorite at Minnesota, and his leadership, bat, and glove was sorely missed. The Twins sort of seemed to be in a collective funk all year, in part because Herr was brought in to replace the popular (but offensively subpar) Steve Lombardozzi. They finished a very distant 2nd place. Herr was essentially done as a productive player (note: don't trade a 27 year old outfielder entering his prime for a 33 year old middle infielder). The Twins flipped Herr the next spring for an even more past-his-prime Shane Rawley and went into full tailspin mode in '89. Rawley went 5-12 with an awful ERA and retired following the season. I'm sure from a perspective of lost WAR there were worse trades, but the '88 Twins were potentially primed for another playoff run. This trade derailed them.

Gallo's at .5 WAR, that's enough to show he has been bad, for those who prefer advanced stats. For those that like traditional stats he is nearly 50 pts below Sano's career batting average, and many on here though that Sano struck out too much! I've moved past the point of worrying whether Gallo helps the Twins win or not. I just know as a fan I am sick of watching Gallo take strikes down the middle every single at bat. I would rather see any other Twin at the plate with a runner on 3rd base and less than two outs... and that may include the pitchers.

Steer and Encarnacian-Strand could hit before they were traded (probably, in the minors at least). But then you have to account for LaMont Wade. And Luke Raley. And Brent Rooker. None of them good enough to keep, and given away. All very good hitters now, assisted greatly one would assume by the coaches in their new organizations. I'll certainly place some blame on the current Twins players themselves, but it should be very apparent that the hitting coaches aren't succeeding.

I was kinda thinking lineup spots 1 - 9 looked a little rough, but I'm slow to adjust to this new era of (non) offensive baseball. Let's go win 2 - 1.

I'd add Balazovic's knee injury, which pretty much derailed him last season. He dropped from the Twin's top pitching prospect to a maybe prospect. It's not just the prospects either. The major league squad suffers from an alarming injury rate. I'm not saying the players aren't just as tough today as they were a generation or two ago, but I do wonder if something has changed with their training which has led to more muscular explosiveness, but less overall health.

Gosh, I'll just strongly disagree with any takes on here that essentially say "Arraez isn't that good" as a way to justify a trade that the Marlins would make 10 times out of 10. Currently Arraez is #5 among all NL position players in bWAR. Don't like bWAR? He's #3 in OPS, which obviously includes slugging percentage. Don't like OPS? He's #2 in Adjusted OPS+. He's not only the best 2B in the NL, this year he's one of the NL's best players at any position! He even leads the NL in intentional walks received... so perhaps the opposition respects him even if some fans don't. Arraez likely won't win the MVP because Acuna is otherworldly awesome and plays on the best team in the NL, but if the season ended today Arraez would almost certainly finish in the top 5. Will he age badly? Sure, he might... but so might Lopez. I'll take the "aging badly/injury" odds on a position player over a pitcher any time (see: Mahle, Tyler)...plus Arraez is a year younger. Maybe the prospect sent along with Lopez will even things out, but right now the Marlins are laughing about the theft they pulled off.

Um... Ryan Pressley says hello. LaMont Wade was given away. He'd be handy to have about now. The return on Jose Berrios may end up being a zero as well, although it is too soon to know.

It's hard this year. My interest dropped in the off-season when Arraez was traded, as he was easily my favorite player to watch live. Interest dropped again when it was apparent that Buxton's body had betrayed him and he was no longer much fun to watch, at least this year, quite possibly forever. The starting pitching has been great, and that is welcome after years of struggle. However with the possible exception of Royce Lewis, there's hardly a batter that I look forward to watching. The lineup just turns over and over, a long sequence of sub-mediocrity. I'll give the FO some credit for the starting pitching staff, but beyond that I'm pretty much done with their approach to roster-building. At his point I'm not even considering a road trip to watch a game this year.

Yeah, the Oliva comp is a little scary, and hopefully not accurate yet for the remainder of Buxton's career. Buxton gained/gains far more value from his legs and glove than Oliva did, and Oliva was a significantly better pure hitter. Add in the fact the Oliva was several years older when his knee injury effectively ended his career as an outfielder and... well, ouch. Sure hope Buxton can return to semi-regular outfield duty at some point in the future, even if it isn't this year.

A mistake? No, more like a calculated risk that may or may not work out. You have to take calculated risks as a GM, understanding that not all will work out. The contract price was right, but Buxton has always been a high ceiling/low floor guy due to his injury history and the streaky nature of his hitting. We may still get the high ceiling: "All Star centerfielder who can do everything", although his age and injury history probably make this at best a 20% proposition. We may get the low floor, which would be (strangely) a "Miguel Sano with a little more speed" kind of player: Abundant power, low average, lots of strikeouts, no defensive position, hurt frequently. That's not what anyone dreamed about when evaluating Buxton's potential a few years ago, yet here we are. A realistic hope is probably that we end up somewhere in between the two.

Well, I'll give ChatGPT a "B" on this assignment. Nishioka at #1 on the list seems an obvious call. David McCarty was perhaps the most disappointing Twins prospect in my memory. So much was expected, and it just didn't work out at all. Felton and Worely are deserving of spots, although I could also name a dozen other equally deserving pitchers (Ron Davis being the obvious omission). Drew Butera... as a hitter, for sure, but I don't believe anyone expected him to hit much. Teufel is a strange choice, as he was a fairly productive hitter for the mid 80's (and they got his playing dates wrong. He left in 1985). OPS+ of over 100. My recollection is that the Twins were not enamored with his defense. Ron Coomer... I remember him as being one of the better players of those late 90's Twins teams... which probably says a lot about how bad those teams were. 1.4 career WAR in over 3000 career at bats? Perhaps a better definition would be mediocre, rather than struggling.

Bring on the robo umps. I HATE the human error element in officiating. HATE, HATE, HATE. If robo umps are wrong, they will be equally and blindly wrong for all, home and road, veterans and rookies, superstars and journeymen, all ethnicities, all uniforms (I will swear to my grave that the Yankee uniform is worth a few calls a year, if not per game). I've been watching egregiously bad calls ruin close games for nearly 50 years. We have the technology...fix it!

I'm not certain this is the case, assuming Lewis has a full recovery and is physically sound. He will be 24 next year, and while he doesn't have a normal amount of game time above High A that is largely due to injuries and the lost Covid minor league season. He looked very capable this year at both AAA and the majors. Had he not gotten hurt, he very possibly would have been up for good this year. The Twins will likely be somewhat conservative and will start Lewis at AAA next year, but if he looks solid after 30 or so games I suspect they won't hesitate to bring him to the majors again. Whether he can stay at shortstop is unknown, especially after another knee injury. However is bat, glove, and arm will play somewhere.

I'm a little shocked to see he was never selected for the All Star game while with the Twins, but Mike Marshall was an extraordinary reliever for them in the late 70's. His '79 numbers are unthinkable today: 90 games, 142 innings, 32 saves, 10 wins, 2.65 ERA. Finished 5th in Cy Young and 11th in the MVP. Likely need a 6th reliever anyway...although maybe not if Marshall is there to suck up the innings.

Day 2 is almost always a crap shot if you look at history. Not many players make it to the majors after the first few rounds. Take a look at the 2015 draft. Most players taken in 2015 would have contributed at the major league level by now if they were going to....especially the college guys. What do we see? Round 5 - One player with more than 1 WAR - Ryan Helsley Round 6 - Two players with more than 1 WAR - Steven Duggar and David Fletcher Round 7 - Two players with more than 1 WAR - Dylan Moore and Jake Cronenworth (I'll even throw in Jovani Moran, who is at .5 and probably makes it over 1 eventually) Round 8 - One player, Chris Paddack...hopefully he makes it back from surgery. Round 9 - Nobody over 1 WAR, although LaMont Wade is getting close. Round 10 - Nobody over 1 WAR. Contrast that to round 1 of 2015. 19 of the players selected have accumulated more than 1 WAR. Many are already stars (Bregman, Tucker, Swanson, Buehler). Unfortunately the Twins drafted Tyler Jay. The lesson: Get the first couple of picks right, and after that you are just praying to hit a lottery number.

Player A Age 22 season: OPS+ 124 Age 23 season: OPS+ 113 Age 24 season: OPS+ 105 Age 25 season: OPS+ 152 Player B Age 22 season: OPS+ 95 Age 23 season: OPS+ 134 Age 24 season: OPS+ 152 Age 25 season: OPS+ 107 Which hitter do you want? Can't tell much difference, can you? One is Luis Arraez. One is a Twins Hall of Fame infielder. Now, player B truly became elite from his age 27 to 32 seasons. Let's hope Arraez can make a similar jump.

Oh, yeah, I totally understand that Morgan > Puckett. The quotes were my attempt at sarcasm....should have found an emoji I guess. If Rodriguez had 1/4 of the career of either Morgan or Puckett we will call it a win..

I was thinking the next Kirby Puckett, but I'll "settle" for a Joe Morgan. Actually, lots of great power hitters weren't all that tall, headlined by Aaron, Mays, and Mantle....all under 6 ft.