Road trip

The Carew trade was bad, but the Twins were somewhat stuck. Carew wanted out, as Griffith was dismantling the team and refused to pay anyone in the early free agency era (see Hisle, Bostock, etc). Of course, under these circumstances the Twins were going to be terrible anyway. Had they not traded him Carew would almost certainly have left as a free agent. It hurt emotionally to lose Carew, but the late Griffith/Met Stadium era was going to be hopeless regardless simply due to the owner's refusal to recognize the reality of rising player salaries in the new free agent era. Now, Tom Brunansky for Tommy Herr... oof, it still hurts decades later. That trade was totally unnecessary and self-inflicted. The Twins were coming off of their 1987 title, and *thought* that Tommy Herr would thrive on the MetroDome's turf. They made the trade in late April, and it disrupted team chemistry very badly. Turned out that Tommy Herr HATED leaving St Louis (where he was a fan favorite) to play in Minnesota, and his performance reflected that. Bruno had also been a fan favorite at Minnesota, and his leadership, bat, and glove was sorely missed. The Twins sort of seemed to be in a collective funk all year, in part because Herr was brought in to replace the popular (but offensively subpar) Steve Lombardozzi. They finished a very distant 2nd place. Herr was essentially done as a productive player (note: don't trade a 27 year old outfielder entering his prime for a 33 year old middle infielder). The Twins flipped Herr the next spring for an even more past-his-prime Shane Rawley and went into full tailspin mode in '89. Rawley went 5-12 with an awful ERA and retired following the season. I'm sure from a perspective of lost WAR there were worse trades, but the '88 Twins were potentially primed for another playoff run. This trade derailed them.

Steer and Encarnacian-Strand could hit before they were traded (probably, in the minors at least). But then you have to account for LaMont Wade. And Luke Raley. And Brent Rooker. None of them good enough to keep, and given away. All very good hitters now, assisted greatly one would assume by the coaches in their new organizations. I'll certainly place some blame on the current Twins players themselves, but it should be very apparent that the hitting coaches aren't succeeding.

I'd add Balazovic's knee injury, which pretty much derailed him last season. He dropped from the Twin's top pitching prospect to a maybe prospect. It's not just the prospects either. The major league squad suffers from an alarming injury rate. I'm not saying the players aren't just as tough today as they were a generation or two ago, but I do wonder if something has changed with their training which has led to more muscular explosiveness, but less overall health.

Gosh, I'll just strongly disagree with any takes on here that essentially say "Arraez isn't that good" as a way to justify a trade that the Marlins would make 10 times out of 10. Currently Arraez is #5 among all NL position players in bWAR. Don't like bWAR? He's #3 in OPS, which obviously includes slugging percentage. Don't like OPS? He's #2 in Adjusted OPS+. He's not only the best 2B in the NL, this year he's one of the NL's best players at any position! He even leads the NL in intentional walks received... so perhaps the opposition respects him even if some fans don't. Arraez likely won't win the MVP because Acuna is otherworldly awesome and plays on the best team in the NL, but if the season ended today Arraez would almost certainly finish in the top 5. Will he age badly? Sure, he might... but so might Lopez. I'll take the "aging badly/injury" odds on a position player over a pitcher any time (see: Mahle, Tyler)...plus Arraez is a year younger. Maybe the prospect sent along with Lopez will even things out, but right now the Marlins are laughing about the theft they pulled off.

Um... Ryan Pressley says hello. LaMont Wade was given away. He'd be handy to have about now. The return on Jose Berrios may end up being a zero as well, although it is too soon to know.

Well, I'll give ChatGPT a "B" on this assignment. Nishioka at #1 on the list seems an obvious call. David McCarty was perhaps the most disappointing Twins prospect in my memory. So much was expected, and it just didn't work out at all. Felton and Worely are deserving of spots, although I could also name a dozen other equally deserving pitchers (Ron Davis being the obvious omission). Drew Butera... as a hitter, for sure, but I don't believe anyone expected him to hit much. Teufel is a strange choice, as he was a fairly productive hitter for the mid 80's (and they got his playing dates wrong. He left in 1985). OPS+ of over 100. My recollection is that the Twins were not enamored with his defense. Ron Coomer... I remember him as being one of the better players of those late 90's Twins teams... which probably says a lot about how bad those teams were. 1.4 career WAR in over 3000 career at bats? Perhaps a better definition would be mediocre, rather than struggling.

Bring on the robo umps. I HATE the human error element in officiating. HATE, HATE, HATE. If robo umps are wrong, they will be equally and blindly wrong for all, home and road, veterans and rookies, superstars and journeymen, all ethnicities, all uniforms (I will swear to my grave that the Yankee uniform is worth a few calls a year, if not per game). I've been watching egregiously bad calls ruin close games for nearly 50 years. We have the technology...fix it!

I'm not certain this is the case, assuming Lewis has a full recovery and is physically sound. He will be 24 next year, and while he doesn't have a normal amount of game time above High A that is largely due to injuries and the lost Covid minor league season. He looked very capable this year at both AAA and the majors. Had he not gotten hurt, he very possibly would have been up for good this year. The Twins will likely be somewhat conservative and will start Lewis at AAA next year, but if he looks solid after 30 or so games I suspect they won't hesitate to bring him to the majors again. Whether he can stay at shortstop is unknown, especially after another knee injury. However is bat, glove, and arm will play somewhere.

I'm a little shocked to see he was never selected for the All Star game while with the Twins, but Mike Marshall was an extraordinary reliever for them in the late 70's. His '79 numbers are unthinkable today: 90 games, 142 innings, 32 saves, 10 wins, 2.65 ERA. Finished 5th in Cy Young and 11th in the MVP. Likely need a 6th reliever anyway...although maybe not if Marshall is there to suck up the innings.

Day 2 is almost always a crap shot if you look at history. Not many players make it to the majors after the first few rounds. Take a look at the 2015 draft. Most players taken in 2015 would have contributed at the major league level by now if they were going to....especially the college guys. What do we see? Round 5 - One player with more than 1 WAR - Ryan Helsley Round 6 - Two players with more than 1 WAR - Steven Duggar and David Fletcher Round 7 - Two players with more than 1 WAR - Dylan Moore and Jake Cronenworth (I'll even throw in Jovani Moran, who is at .5 and probably makes it over 1 eventually) Round 8 - One player, Chris Paddack...hopefully he makes it back from surgery. Round 9 - Nobody over 1 WAR, although LaMont Wade is getting close. Round 10 - Nobody over 1 WAR. Contrast that to round 1 of 2015. 19 of the players selected have accumulated more than 1 WAR. Many are already stars (Bregman, Tucker, Swanson, Buehler). Unfortunately the Twins drafted Tyler Jay. The lesson: Get the first couple of picks right, and after that you are just praying to hit a lottery number.

Oh, yeah, I totally understand that Morgan > Puckett. The quotes were my attempt at sarcasm....should have found an emoji I guess. If Rodriguez had 1/4 of the career of either Morgan or Puckett we will call it a win..

I was thinking the next Kirby Puckett, but I'll "settle" for a Joe Morgan. Actually, lots of great power hitters weren't all that tall, headlined by Aaron, Mays, and Mantle....all under 6 ft.

Dobnak sent down? Seriously? I know he has had a couple of rough starts in a row, but this is a surprise to me. Fifteen days ago he was considered our 2nd most reliable starter.

Oh, sure, I'll play. Joe "Emory Board" Niekro Doug Mientkwzrzchzwskch (I refuse to look up the proper spelling, but everyone knows who I mean and remembers his glove work) Jose Morales, pinch-hitter extraordinaire. Chip Hale, pinch-hitter extraordinaire, part 2. Butch Wynegar Mike Cubbage Shannon Stewart...saved a season...what a great trade that turned out to be. Bobby Kielty Don Baylor Christian Guzman. Never became as good as we hoped he would be, but boy it was fun to watch him run when he hit one into the gap.

"His original contract gave him the right to wear #18. That’s currently worn by Silver Slugger catcher Mitch Garver." Garver has worn three different numbers in three seasons with the Twins (43, 23, and 18). Gave up 43 for Addison Reed in 2018. Gave up 23 for Nelson Cruz last year. So {shrugs}, it seems like Garver may not care much what number he wears.

Tagging on to this, Kirby Pucket had little power in his early 20's. He was a pure slap hitter. At 22: 3 HRs in Rookie ball At 23: 9 HRs in single A At 24: 0 HRs in Minnesota, and 1 at AAA At 25: 4 HRs in Minnesota And then he got his man muscles, changed his swing a bit, and the rest is history. Arraez probably never hits 20 HRs, but he will get stronger as he gets older.

Love having Dozier for 2018. Pretty certain I'd like having him for 2019, and probably for 2020. Take a look at the top Baseball Ref comps for Dozier though, and what they have done after their early 30's. It isn't pretty. Dan Uggla Kelly Johnson Damion Easley Rickie Weeks Neil Walker Bret Boone Jose Valentin With the exception of Jeff Kent, power hitting second basemen don't age well at all. Father Time is tough to beat. If Dozier is willing to take a 3 year deal (and he probably won't be) then sure, sign him. I think after 2021 you can't expect him to be better than replacement level on his offense, and his defense is unlikely to be adequate.