Road trip

I guess, if I try to look for a strategy behind it, Vazquez at DH instead of catcher allows Rocco to easily pull Vazquez for Larnach/Wallner/whomever the moment a rhp enters the game for the Giants. But yeah... Vazquez at DH is just a strange move.

Cruz was great, but it was $39 million for 3 years, where he produced 8.4 WAR (a stat that in this case perhaps doesn't measure his total worth to the Twins organization, as he clearly had a mentoring role for some other young players). Add in that the Twins flipped him in a trade for Ryan, and yes, to be certain it was a great signing. Castro has thus far cost a measly $5.1 million for 2 years, and has accumulated a coincidentally matched 5.1 WAR so far through 1.5 years of play. From an ROI standpoint, this was an even better signing.

Castro is a strong candidate for the best free agent signing for the Twins in recent history, especially if measured in terms of return on (a very small) investment.

What's real is his total OPS for the year, not an arbitrary June 1 to July 3, which you conveniently cut off before his 1 for 13 streak since July 3. Oh, and he was a below average fielder and hitter last year too. Last year we watched the FO hang on to Joey Gallo for far too long. It's a pattern at this point, holding on to veterans who are past their prime. Gallo at least contributed a very low .5 WAR for the year. It will take a minor miracle for Margot to get to 0 WAR because his defense is far worse than Gallo's was. Unfortunately better players will be sent to the minors soon enough so that Margot can stay.... likely the moment Austin Martin comes off the IL. While Martin also has his flaws, he's young enough to have upside and he's been better than Margot this year.

My takeaway is that while there were some brutal stretches of play, overall it was a pretty decent 1st half for the Twins. 13 games over .500 just before the All Star break? Yeah, I would have taken that back on April 1. Can't help the crazy hot 1st half for Cleveland, although part of the blame falls on the Twins who played poorly vs the Guardians. Cleveland might last, might not, but at least the Twins project to make the playoffs. Enough of the young players are hitting and improving, mostly, even if there are some disappointments like Kirilloff. That's good and needed because the vets we have are already at their performance ceiling, and for some the ceiling isn't very high. Injuries have hurt, but that's a league-wide problem and at least they haven't yet affected starting pitching where the Twins have very limited depth. But the starting pitching.... yeah, we need Pablo to find his 2023 form. Without that it is hard to envision significant playoff success unless the offense just catches fire in October.

Yet still better than Gladden doing play by play, after only 2 game of experience. 😉 I actually kind of enjoyed having Span in the booth with Morneau. They had a good rapport.

Couple of nice defensive plays in the 9th by some guys that aren't known for their gloves.

Well, maybe Lee can get on base to start the 9th. Only 2 guys hitting today and Wallner is 2nd man up.

It's not new. He was a good outfielder for years but the drop off showed up in the stats already least year. Year Age Tm Pos Lg G GS CG Inn Ch PO A E DP Fld% Rtot Rdrs Rtot/yr Rdrs/yr RF/9 RF/G lgFld% lgRF9 lgRFG Award 9 Seasons OF 802 678 572 6216.0 1630 1591 18 21 2 .987 53 36 10 6 2.33 2.01 .986 2.12 2.10 2023 28 TBR CF AL 55 49 44 435.1 104 100 1 3 0 .971 -8 -5 -22 -14 2.09 1.84 .990 2.54 2.51 2023 28 TBR RF AL 43 32 28 299.1 70 70 0 0 0 1.000 1 2 4 8 2.10 1.63 .987 2.17 2.14 2024 29 MIN OF AL 70 37 19 394.2 92 90 0 2 0 .978 -2 -5 -6 -15 2.05 1.29 .988 2.29 2.26 2024 29 MIN LF AL 45 9 6 171.1 37 35 0 2 0 .946 -2 -2 -17 -14 1.84 0.78 .987 2.07 2.04 2024 29 MIN RF AL 32 24 10 185.0 41 41 0 0 0 1.000 1 -2 7 -13 1.99 1.28 .986 2.14 2.11 2024 29 MIN DH AL 6 1 2024 29 MIN CF AL 5 4 3 38.1 14 14 0 0 0 1.000 -1 -1 -18 -31 3.29 2.80 .990 2.65 2.62 I didn't paste all of his early years when he was very good. Look at the very bad rtot and rdrs numbers the last two years, yet he still has positive #s for his career totals. The FO must have thought 2023 was an aberration... but it wasn't. He appears to be in steep decline mode, at least on defense.

Indeed. It seems an obvious solution, but Lee has yet to play an inning at 2b for the Twins, which is where so many of us had him penciled in. Perhaps there is a reluctance to ask him to play too many defensive positions this early in his MLB career. He has certainly been great at the plate, but I don't really recall Lee being tested yet by a difficult defensive play.

So, as a regular Wallner advocate, I actually agree with this. We don't know. Perhaps he can make adjustments, perhaps not. We can't know until he gets those few hundred MLB at bats. Right now he has 300. Let's give him a run of another 200-300 to see what we have? Thus far, its a career OPS+ of 131. Pretty good. Like, only Royce Lewis has a better career number on this squad (unless you want to count Brooks Lee). Wallner (and also Martin) is a completely different case than say.... Margot, because we have enough data to know exactly what Margot is. 2791 career MLB at bats and an OPS+ of 91. His hot June is just a tiny data point in his career at this juncture. Margot didn't suddenly figure out MLB pitching in June, any more than he completely forgot how to hit back in April. Now if Margot was still fast and could play CF, or even was an above average corner outfielder, well you could live with a below average bat. But he isn't, and yet this "platoon bat" has played more games in the OF than any other Twin this year (what a depressing statistic). He will be 30 before the end of the year. He will spend the remainder of his career as a placeholder at best. That's fine if your squad has places that need holding, but when Martin and Lewis come back from the IL the Twins need to free up some places to at least give the team a chance to improve.

I'm with you on preferring Wallner, and have been waiting somewhat impatiently since late June. If we are going to ignore April and May for Margot as many seem to want to do, can we not do the same for Wallner? Oh wait, we don't have to. Including the horrific April for Wallner, 2024 slash lines - .167/.333/.433 OPS+ 116 .2 WAR vs Margot .235/.302/.335 OPS+ 81 -.7 WAR There will come a time, hopefully quite soon, when Lewis and Martin are healthy and there will be a roster crunch. Not much question in my mind who needs to stay if these lines continue.

Indeed. But people are going to gripe and look for someone(s) to blame when things don't go well. I think the griping has decreased somewhat in recent weeks as the play has improved. As a fan base we are processing several relatively new realities, and change is hard. These new realities would include: 1. Players spending far more time on the injured list compared to a decade or two ago (this is a league-wide issue, but it is always more noticeable on the team you follow closely). This has led to the perception that the FO has signed/traded for injury-prone players. This is true, but so has everyone else. 2. Scoring being down dramatically compared to just a few years ago (which leads to the perception that the FO/Rocco can't evaluate and develop hitters, or that they pursue too many platoon bats in a desperate attempt to squeeze out extra runs). 3. The advent of the analytic/corporate Manager, vs the traditional Billy Martin/Earl Weaver/Lou Pinella passionate yeller-screamer. This is also a league-wide trend. If Rocco were fired tomorrow, the Twins would almost certainly hire a similar type of manager. It isn't, however, what many older fans are accustomed to. 4. The failed TV deal...which has just generally pissed off everyone in the Twins home territory, and for good reason. Overall, I'm content to slightly disappointed in this year's team. Things are trending upward, and perhaps the Twins really are the 6th best team as determined by FanGraphs. The problem is that it seems like there is a very wide gap between the very top teams (Yankees, Baltimore) and the Twins at #6. I've very much enjoyed seeing some of the youngsters progress (SWR, Miranda, and now Lee). Development is key for this franchise... gotta roll the dice on the kids because the Twins have almost never spent big $s, and certainly won't this year.

I've been sort of pleasantly surprised by Larnach this year, as my expectations for him had become quite low after last year. I still view him as sort of a high floor/low ceiling kind of player. There is value in that, but I'll be stunned if he ever becomes a star. Maybe he has a 25 HR season in him, but more likely is he gives the Twins an adequate or better platoon bat, sort of adequate corner outfield defense, and slightly below average base running. Kind of sounds like Randy Bush, for those of us who remember the 1980s? There is value in that kind of player, but I have a hard time penciling him in as a long term every day starter at LF or DH.

WAR is an incomplete story, agreed. It is hard to say what Steer or Enc-Strand would have done with the Twins. However it is also incomplete in another way... Steer is likely going to double or triple his current WAR going forward, as he looks like a long term part of the Reds plans. Thus, this trade will only look worse with time..

While I agree that Varland is more likely a bullpen candidate than future rotation depth, I think it is way too early to determine a "solid no" on Festa. His underlying metrics weren't nearly as bad as his results (for example: 8 to 1 SO/W). Any organization unwilling to give young starters more than 2 starts will almost never be able to develop a starting pitcher. Sending Festa down now for further development is appropriate, but I certainly expect to see him get another opportunity this year or next.

Santana is 38, played nearly every game in June, and is on an 0 for 12 streak. Doesn't hit right handers nearly as well as lefties. Early day game after a night game. He likely needs a day off. Logical time to give him a break.

Very glad to see him get his chance. Hope he adjusts to MLB pitching and is up for good. Not quite certain where he is going to fit defensively. He's played SS almost exclusively in the minors. I know we have all been thinking of him as a future 2B guy... but he has played a grand total of 3 games there. 3B is really no better, with a dozen games played at that spot. Maybe they'll just DH him? It's asking a lot of him to learn to play new positions at the MLB level. With Correa entrenched at SS it's a little odd to me that he wasn't moved around the infield more often to prepare him for alternatives.

This is a game where I appreciate the Twins new-found depth of starting pitching, at least compared to the Tigers. Based on the stats, Montero looks like he really got rushed through the upper minors, likely because the Tigers have no better options. Maybe he has great stuff, but his stats (ERA, SO/W), at AA and AAA were nothing special at all. In two starts this year vs Pit and Philly Montero got lit up pretty good. I would hope the Twins can continue that trend.

Also significantly less awesome (but still good) on the road. At Tiger Stadium he's been pretty much unbeatable. Split W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W Home 6 0 1.000 1.74 8 8 0 0 0 0 51.2 33 12 10 2 12 0 58 3 0 0 203 0.871 10.1 4.83 Away 3 3 .500 2.98 8 8 0 0 0 0 45.1 39 16 15 6 7 0 54 3 0 0 182 1.015 10.7 7.71

Rosario was never boring, I'll give him that. The big moments always seemed to find him, both for good and for ill. His outfield play was both spectacular, and spectacularly bad, sometimes in the same game. He had a few productive years back in the teens...but it was back in the teens. I absolutely wish him well, but elsewhere.

Kind of unrelated... the 1980's called. They built a time machine and travelled to 2024. Their heads exploded when they saw Shortstops had a higher OPS across the league than First Basemen. Strange times. Of course, first we had to explain OPS. 😆

It looks to me like a classic strategy vs tactics question. Tactically, the Twins are likely better off in 2024 season with Kepler playing right field (assuming the player received in return for Kepler isn't more valuable, currently). If your goal is to put the best possible team out in 2024 you keep Kepler. Strategically, the Twins must consistently identify and develop young players and turn them into major leaguers. This must be done every season. Some current "AAA players" must become MLB players, or else this franchise is doomed long term given their somewhat self-imposed payroll limits. Simultaneously older, more expensive players must be shed at an appropriate rate and time, while receiving value back for them rather than just letting them go. Kepler certainly fits into the "expensive older player" category. You can keep him and let him walk for nothing, be marginally better in 2024, and leave the youngsters down in AAA to batter AAA pitching. The cost of doing this is that you are sacrificing the potential return on Kepler, and you aren't gathering much information about the possible MLB value of a variety of AAA players. So, do you want to keep Kepler and bet on 2024? As a fan I want the short-term gratification, but I also have to acknowledge the very real strategic cost of chasing this.

It's probably not too soon anymore. 9 games back of Cleveland, nearly July. It is possible to both try out some youngsters like Lee and/or Wallner with an eye towards next year, AND still stay in the race for the wildcard. Frankly, the Twins really need another left-handed bat right now. Will the FO pursue this route? I'm losing faith.

Nah, can't use Carroll, Twins would have him languishing in AAA and the fan base would've turned on him. Three players, 2024 slash lines, try to pick out Carroll: .207/.309/.367 .201/.270/.384 .211/.305/.313 *Hint* the other two are young Twins who had prior success, although not quite at Carroll's 2023 level. Of course, Arizona is playing the long game and letting Carroll work things out. They know they have limited resources, so young players are their future. Players 1 and 2 above are Julien and Kirilloff, Carroll is player 3, worst OPS of the bunch.