Ranking the Minnesota Twins’ Top Pitching Prospects: Who’s No. 1?

Loved this piece, Cody, thanks.

Must disagree, however, with your comment that Soto has the highest ceiling as a true #1.  Although this is his first full season, Hill appears to be doing everything Soto has with even better secondary pitches.  Granted he hasn't been healthy in the past, but Prielipp appears to have put his health issues behind him.  If so, he has the same high ceiling, at least in my opinion.  He also is several levels ahead of the others and still could be pitching at Target Field come September.

Like Morris, alot.  But just don't see him in the same league as the above trio.  [Note: I continue to hope that one of these lefties is the Twins next Liriano.]

(This is not meant as a complaint, just an observation and what I heard this weekend from Drew MacPhail)

They seem to be limiting the innings and exposure to get better results and keep them healthy, but it hard to envision this guys as top end big league starters when they aren't given the chance in the minors to work though seeing guys multiple times. Soto, Prielipp and Hill do seem like they have some impressive stuff.

Seems like Jackson Jobe was treated pretty similar and he seems to run the pitch count up pretty quickly limiting his depth into games (we will see how it goes, Good Luck young men)

I tend to rank on upside, so I'd go with Hill, Soto, Prielipp, Morris. Morris looks like a 5th starter or middle reliever. Prielipp looks like an excellent reliever, but I doubt his arm survives 160-180 innings a season as a starter. Soto and Hill have top of the rotation upside but are a long way off.

Fun to watch all four of these pitchers. One could make an order on ceiling or where they are at the present time. Based purely on my views of their games: Prielipp, Hill, Soto, Morris for ceiling. I would go Morris, Prielipp, Hill for performance to date based mostly on the level of competition and considering I have not seen Soto enough times.

Morris has usually been around 94 MPH and has hit 98 MPH in the games I have seen him pitch. I have watched Morris 8 times. It seems like Morris works quite a bit on his pitches for development as opposed to just trying to get outs. The number of poor plays behind him has been discouraging to watch with Miranda and Julien being particular bad.

Prielipp should be ready for AAA by July. I agree with the careful approach at this time. There are times when he just toys with AA batters. I have watched 5 of his starts.

I have only watched Soto once. He looked really good but I would like to see him more times before jumping all in.

Dasan Hill looks really good too. He is an exciting prospect. I have only seen him pitch four times.

Pretty cool to watch and know the Twins have some fun talented players to watch in their minor league system.

MacPhail did talk about a new pitching cadence plan in the minors. But not of these pitchers are on that new cadence. These four are in the same 6 day starter cadence they have used in the minors for a while.

Of the four I think Prielipp is their best pitching prospect. He has shown success above A-Ball. The difference between his strike out rate and walk rate is elite like Hill’s but he is so much closer.

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Fun to watch all four of these pitchers. One could make an order on ceiling or where they are at the present time. Based purely on my views of their games: Prielipp, Hill, Soto, Morris for ceiling. I would go Morris, Prielipp, Hill for performance to date based mostly on the level of competition and considering I have not seen Soto enough times.

Morris has usually been around 94 MPH and has hit 98 MPH in the games I have seen him pitch. I have watched Morris 8 times. It seems like Morris works quite a bit on his pitches for development as opposed to just trying to get outs. The number of poor plays behind him has been discouraging to watch with Miranda and Julien being particular bad.

Prielipp should be ready for AAA by July. I agree with the careful approach at this time. There are times when he just toys with AA batters. I have watched 5 of his starts.

I have only watched Soto once. He looked really good but I would like to see him more times before jumping all in.

Dasan Hill looks really good too. He is an exciting prospect. I have only seen him pitch four times.

Pretty cool to watch and know the Twins have some fun talented players to watch in their minor league system.

Who would you put next on the list? Any sleepers taking a big step this year?

Can’t wait to watch them pitch 4 to 5 innings with the big club and get taken out because they have thrown 72 pitches.

I like Dasan Hill as the #1 Twins pitching prospect.

Prielipp should be up now piggy backing SWR's starts. Opponents load up lefties vs. SWR, he pitches 4-5 innings. Prielipp comes in for 3-4  innings temptingthem to pinch hit their lefties out of the game. Advantage Twins for Jax or Duran to face right handed batter if he's needed. His stuff will play in the bags, why wait?

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Prielipp is the closest with #1 potential so he'd be my #1 ranked. I don't know if he'll be able to stay healthy, but I don't know that he won't be able to. He's been healthy this year so I'll say the 2 surgeries worked and he's good moving forward.

After that it'd be Hill and Soto 2A and 2B. Both have really nice ceilings but are really far away. Hard to separate them at this point.

I don't see it with Morris so he's not even close to these other guys. Not in the same universe when it comes to ceiling as far as I can see.

If we are talking absolute ceiling only then you are likely correct, which is what I also suggested. However, pitchability is still a thing and for now I'm sticking with Morris until such time as Prielipp gets past 60 pitches and resides in St. Paul as successfully as he has in Wichita. No doubt that Hill and Soto have loads of potential but they are a ways away from MLB conversation. Morris will almost surely never rise above a mid to back end rotation piece in the majors but there is real value in a guy who gets outs and stays off the barrel. I will continue to tune in every time he pitches

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Who would you put next on the list? Any sleepers taking a big step this year?

Not Raya.

Paddack will be gone next year so we’ll need some guys ready or near ready. Like to see Prielipp hit AAA this year and with the Twins sometime next year. Keep him on the starter path as long as possible. 
 

2026 pitching depth - we’ve used 8-9 the past few seasons

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Festa, Zebby, SWR, Adams,  Morris, Prielipp, Lewis

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't disagree with any of that. I just prefer ceiling in prospects. It's why I was never as high on Lee as so many others. Even the "high floor" guys have a low probability of being successful major leaguers. It's just the nature of the beast. And difference makers are needed to win in the playoffs. So ceiling is the first thing I look at. Then it's proximity to the majors. 

But any major leaguer you can produce out of your system (whether you drafted them, signed them, claimed them, traded for them, however you acquired them) has value. Lots of value. I wasn't trying to say Morris has no value and could've worded things differently. But, like you said, Morris isn't likely at all to be more than a mid to back end guy. That is very valuable. But not in the same universe as a front end guy. The other 3 all have top of the rotation type stuff. The chances of them actually reaching that lofty potential is incredibly small. Again, just the nature of the beast. But if your 100th percentile outcome is #1 starter then you can miss that and still end up a Morris. If Morris' 100th percentile outcome is #3 starter and he misses by too much he's fighting for a pen spot or an MLB career at all.

The other 3 may never even reach AAA (Prielipp should be there pretty darn soon, though). But I just prefer ceiling. I'll take the extra risk of them being farther away for the added reward of them potentially being org changing arms. This is what makes these discussions so interesting to me. So many ways to look at these guys. And so many ways to prioritize them. Organizations need to take it all into account and it can really effect how teams are built.

We are probably on the same page. I wanted the Twins to be aggressive trading a few guys (Lee, Julien, even Lewis and Wallner, but of course not all) the last few off seasons to target more talent. Naturally that is difficult to pull off and Falvey is risk adverse to the max. To be fair, one never knows how things would turn out.

When I watch Hill and Soto I can see the potential but they clearly need time. Prielipp is closer and ready for AAA. I wonder when that move will come. I do like how the Twins are having Prielipp use/ develop all of his pitches as opposed to just mowing down the weaker part of the AA lineups. Certainly he goes to AAA in July if the next couple of starts go well. The Twins may wind up trading Morris this coming winter if Adams and others develop. I think Morris could easily slot in as an above average #4/5 starting pitcher next year and a pile of teams could use that skill. The Twins may be content to hold their top 3 and let Festa, Matthews, and Woods Richardson fill the bottom. It should be interesting to see where Prielipp is a year from now. I don't see Raya in the SP picture or anyone else. The pitching has been enjoyable to watch. The bats and defense, not so much.

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'd have a healthy Culpepper next on my list. I think some have forgotten about him since he's started this season late. 

I really tuned in to C. J. last season. He looked good and was coming along. The one quibble i had with him is that he throws 6 or 7 pitches and he was not developing at a rate which I would expect from his arm. That may be unfair but it takes quite a while to command and control any offering. Starting pitchers hope to harness 2-4 pitches. The ability to master twice the number of offerings is a huge task for a young pitcher. He had a very nice outing yesterday though and we will need to see how he does going into the summer once he (Culpepper) transitions back to AA and possibly AAA by August.

FWIW as of today Prielipp is back on the IL.  Hill seems to have the highest ceiling.  Baseball America has a nice write up on him and very positive views of his potential to be a number one type starter.

A couple of these guys appear to wear their baseball glove on the hand closest to the 3rd base dugout.  Seems odd for Twins pitchers.  Are they facing the wrong direction?  Is this even allowed?  Perhaps a followup article is in order.  

6 hours ago, mark sills said:

Andrew Morris on top. for me. Disagree about the lot of hard contact comment, fielding has been a  issue for the amount of hits he's been given up. Last six starts, five or more innings. Prielipp  number two hope he continues to increase pitch count and call up to aaa soon. Hill number three for me . Adams would be the next after the top five. I think they sent him back down to go back to being a starter in triple a in case the possibility of more injuries to our starting pitchers.

Adams is going to get a lot of frequent flyer miles crossing the river over the next few months.

A nice group that hopefully stays healthy, as TJ surgery is way too common with young flamethrowers these days. The TWINS haven’t had a true number one starter, like a Verlander, for a long time, maybe since Liriano. I don’t think you are a serious playoff contender without an ace or at least two number 2’s, who can prevent long losing streaks. Hopefully one of these guys can emerge to fill that roll. 

Of all the pitchers mentioned, I've only seen Prielipp and Morris in person and came away with these observations.   In his two starts I saw, Prielipp really caught my attention with the quality of stuff, that pop, his nasty slider, a lot of people mentioned his lack of innings pitched (a valid arguement along with the length of his starts), but what's hard to believe is that last season was his only complete season he pitched in college or the minors...since the 2020 COVID year...and he only tossed 23.1 innings in 2024.  He's already surpassed that with a career best 31.2 this season.   This kid is a real diamond in the rough IMO, albeit with the caveat "if he stays healthy" always next to his name unless proven elsewise (which it looks like he is certainly working on.)  Prielipp is #1 on my list.

Andrew Morris I've seen make three starts and while his stuff is not as eye-popping as the others, his final stat line always seems impressive with only 1 or 2 runs allowed in 5-6 innings, more Ks that IP, and very few walks.   He's not over powering, but really seems to know how to pitch and use what he's got to give his team a chance to win, pretty much every start.  Morris is not my #2, but I think his name needs to be included in the top 5 or so.   He has the potential to fill out the end of a starting rotation.

It's exciting to read about Soto, Hill, and the others; I'll be following on Twins Daily of course to see how they continue to develop.

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't disagree with any of that. I just prefer ceiling in prospects. It's why I was never as high on Lee as so many others. Even the "high floor" guys have a low probability of being successful major leaguers. It's just the nature of the beast. And difference makers are needed to win in the playoffs. So ceiling is the first thing I look at. Then it's proximity to the majors. 

But any major leaguer you can produce out of your system (whether you drafted them, signed them, claimed them, traded for them, however you acquired them) has value. Lots of value. I wasn't trying to say Morris has no value and could've worded things differently. But, like you said, Morris isn't likely at all to be more than a mid to back end guy. That is very valuable. But not in the same universe as a front end guy. The other 3 all have top of the rotation type stuff. The chances of them actually reaching that lofty potential is incredibly small. Again, just the nature of the beast. But if your 100th percentile outcome is #1 starter then you can miss that and still end up a Morris. If Morris' 100th percentile outcome is #3 starter and he misses by too much he's fighting for a pen spot or an MLB career at all.

The other 3 may never even reach AAA (Prielipp should be there pretty darn soon, though). But I just prefer ceiling. I'll take the extra risk of them being farther away for the added reward of them potentially being org changing arms. This is what makes these discussions so interesting to me. So many ways to look at these guys. And so many ways to prioritize them. Organizations need to take it all into account and it can really effect how teams are built.

This is my view as well. Floor can make you competitive but ceiling wins championships.  As a draft strategy I would target ceiling constantly as you can pick up floor guys relatively easily. 

Great article...well written!

I like the 2 lefties! Lanky frames especially hill he's got a sale vibe to him! We've been starved for left handed SP since Johan i think the worm has finally turned!