Minnesota’s Farm System May Be Tapped Out by 2023

Can't sweat it yet.  I'm sure we'll have some redundant players in positions of depth that we will swap for new, younger talent that can develop down the road.

Interesting premise, but I’m not sure how much it’ll matter in a couple of years. As long as you have young, inexpensive, and controllable talent, you’re in a great spot. Whether the players are at AAA or in their 2nd season in the Bigs, they still have a fistful of controllable years and we can either play them or package them for even more, higher-end talent. 
 

Also, who knows who the next Jose Miranda is going to be. Last year, he wasn’t on many of our radars, yet we’re now talking about him like he’s of the same ilk as Martin and Lewis. 

The hope is will not need to get into the minors depth because the young core will be good to go for a few years.  This gives time to rebuild the depth in the minors. Of course if there is a bunch of injuries, or poor performances it could be a few long years. 

Honestly, this doesn't make much sense to me. If the wave of prospects we have moving along right now all graduate to the MLB club this season, then it's cause for celebration and we're not going to worry about whether we have a dip in minor league depth. If several of them aren't ready in 2022, then they're at the top of the list for 2023, along with the A & AA-ball guys that should be advancing.

It's not like we're going to give up on Josh Winder if he struggles in his first year in MLB and ends up spending a good chunk of the year at AAA. From a prospect perspective, we're in solid shape where we have a significant wave of prospects arriving around the same time; the risk to our system is if too many of these guys bust all at once. but 2023 isn't where the "problem" is: it's 2024, and only if 80% of these guys flame out on us.

If only 1 of Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Strotman, and Enlow makes it as an MLB starter in the next two seasons, we're in trouble. If three of these guys graduate from prospect to rotation (along with Ryan & Ober), then...we're insulated.

If Martin, Lewis, Miranda, Steer and Wallner all fall down while neither Kirilloff or Larnach seize jobs...then yeah, we're in trouble. (since Miller, Cavaco, Soularie, and Urbina all look a little farther off)

but this is the way it always is for small to mid-market teams: if guys don't develop and graduate into being quality starters and you don't develop any all-stars internally...then yeah, you're in trouble. but I'm not worried about whether guys use up their rookie eligibility, I'm worried about whether or not they're quality players. If they do, then it's easy enough to supplement your roster with a free agent or two to fill in holes where you don't have prospects (catcher and SS being the hardest).

There is no reason to be concerned about this. Jose Miranda a year ago was left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft and was looking like a utility player at best. Prospects develop every year. There are quite a few names mentioned in the article and in the comments section that have the potential to be top 100 prospects. 

There is a draft every single year. It helps to be drafting higher in the first round, but plenty of our top prospects were drafted in rounds 2-7. The Twins have actually been terrible on hitting on their first round picks.

Teams also sign international prospects every year. Every single year teams have the opportunity to improve/restock their farm system.

 

9 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Options... the players you list have options.

Too my knowledge... Celestino is the only player that will run out of options and force a put on the 26 man roster or risk losing him scenario.   

However, there will be some 40 man roster decisions that need to be made this off-season with Centerino, Richardson, Varland and Wallner (I'm sure I'm missing others) that could produce some spillage, 

It's the hopeful continued progression of Centerino, Richardson and Varland being players that we don't wan't to lose via R5 that could produce spillage.

That is the main reason why Bundy and Archer gobbling up innings instead of Winder and Balazovic can cause a chain reaction bottleneck... IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED.   

We really have to start getting some major league miles on the mound out of our 40 man candidates this year. 

There are 3 prospects I like in the Twins system that might be under the radar but I'm really intrigued how they will do this year.

Cade Povich - Pitcher with nice mix
Edouard Julien - Super good eye at plate. Really good on base .pct. Will play 2nd base at 2A to start season. 
Christian Encarnacion - Strand - Lots of pop in the bat. Comparable might be Jose Miranda. 

No way. The guys they drafted last alone will be prime players in 4-5 years of minor league service time. By then, you are starting to think about trading the Ryan Ober Lewis guys because they might be overpriced.

The problem the Twins MAY face is 40-man roster issues. They kinda have that right now, too many NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME guys, and those that need a shot aren't fulltimers yet because of lack of innings, or because the Twins keep filling the upper levels with minor league castoffs.

Wichita has a great team. Cedar Rapids is full of promising players. There's a lot that will be getting reps at Ft. Myers, or still young in the FCL playland.

You ain't lying.  It's disappearing.  A testament to Falvine's inability to evaluate hitting prospects.  Don't be surprised in the future if the names that pop up prominently are acquisitions from other systems.

I'm not worried about there minor league talent. Only 4 to 6 players will be brought up next year. They are due to pick very high in the next draft. And they already are looking at three very good international players in that draft. The only way they loose some players is thru trades for good veteran players. I settle for that.

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

If they don't manage this skillfully. There will be spillage off the 40 man. 

Lots of people don't worry about this type of spillage but I do.

In the past 3 years, our farm system spillage has produced for other teams... nearly as much as our farm system has produced for us. 

 

 

I agree but there are quite a few guys coming off next year.    Dylan Bundy and Gary Sanchez are gone.  If they pick up Archer's option that mean's he worked out very well.  Carlos Correa is almost certainly gone.  If Sanó stays it means he was a beast this year.  I would think this year is Brent Rooker's last unless he steps up.  One of Luis Arraez / Gio Urshela should be traded and Kenta Maeda is also a trade candidate.  I bet 7 of those 9 are gone.  Then, we also have Rodgers / Duffy and Smith as free agents.   Obviously, they will need to replace these RPs but hopefully a couple internal candidates step up which would ease the 40 man burden.

I would love to see Miranda take solid hold of 3B by July 1 which is why I say Arraez or Urshela or even both could be traded.  That would be ideal. Gordon and Martin should be the bench players.  Hopefully Celestino and Larnach grow into a role this year as well.  Of course, all of these guys are already on the 40 man.   We all know how huge it would be if two of Winder / Balazovic / Sands / Duran fill the Archer / Bundy roles.  With a little luck we will be in decent shape where the 40 man is concerned.  If all of this came together could we keep Correa?  I doubt it but we can hope.

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree... if they skillfully manage things, having a 40 man full of solid choices is a good problem to have. Trading excess value gets more value in return and the system can hum along.  

My concern with the spillage is going to be the current crowding of the SP gate. We can only commit X amount of spots to the SP position on the 40 man and we are SP plump full now with guys who need to build up yearly inning totals and at least 3 more quality young arms that need to be added to the 40 man next year.  

If we don't graduate some of these arms into the rotation this year for next year it will cause spillage: Trading of players who haven't developed full value yet. Trying to get players through waivers, risking R5 exposure.    

If Bundy and Archer types stay healthy this year, eat innings and perform average to below average, it will limit how many of the young arms get a look see for Ober type MLB qualities or better.  

Without the look-see for Ober type abilities(or better)... it will be hard to trust fall with a young arm cold next off-season just to relieve the 40 man crowding. which keeps SP over stocked on the 40 and under stocked on the 26 which leads to more Bundy type 1 year deals just to be on the safe side and the cycle repeats itself. The can gets kicked down the road.   

I wish I could say that my scenario could never happen but... I've been watching this scenario play out for a few years now. 

There is large crowd of people waiting to get into the nightclub... if the bouncer doesn't open the door... someone is going to get hurt. 

 

I was thinking the same thing which is why I would have been ok with the 5th spot being used to stack prospects.  My guess is they were excited to see Archer's velo back so they signed him.  Here is my hope.  If Bundy or Archer suck, cut them.  What are the odds of both being good?  Point being cutting one or trading one of them by mid-year would create opportunity for the prospects.  If we are so fortunate as to have them both rebound, and our other starters remain healthy, trade Bundy or Archer.

Obviously, an injury does the same thing so I am hopeful they have ample opportunity to test those young arms.  I would love to see Duran stick in the pen and graduate to the rotation next year or even later this year.  he still has the highest ceiling of our pitching prospects, IMO.

Seth just posted the Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels roster and a lot of over 20 guys on that roster who should advance fast thru the system...if there is room for them at the major league level. 

Without Elizabethton, players are forced to stay in the Instyructional League (and there are close to 50 players at the complex) to play in-house games. But ALL the guys at Ft. Myers should be knocking on Cedar Rapids doors this season, and ALL should make the jump next season if they don't bomb out.

My concern would be the lack of difference makers. Don’t look now but Falvine has a pretty poor track record with their top picks. I know it’s still too early to make a final judgment but it ain’t looking good right now.