Gabriel Gonzalez is a Great Hitter, but It Might not Matter

I somewhat don't get the "no power" and "he's slow" takes, but I'll admit I've not watched him.

His scouting grade was 45 speed, 50 power.  Neither is a strength, but we aren't talking Josh Willingham speed or Ben Revere power either, and they both played some corner outfield for the Twins.  In 400 minor league games he's stolen 39 bases and hit 44 home runs.  That shows some production.  He won't get faster, but his power may improve with age.

Every AA player who shows potential is a "maybe".  I look forward to seeing if he can continue to develop at AAA, and then hopefully the majors.

Kirby Puckett & Brian Dozier came up because they could play a premium position not that they could hit HRs or had the potential to do so. HRs came later. They are an exception not the rule. Many who even have high power rankings don't make it. Gonzalez's glove won't get him to the show to find out.

10 minutes ago, Dman said:

It's not a perfect comp as in he is exactly the same hitter. Just that like Arraez he is underrated primarily because of his defensive value.  Arraez had a very narrow path to the majors and he became an AL and NL batting champion. Not saying Gonzalez will do that, but I think his lack of defense is overblown at this point. All the top evaluators missed on Arraez because they didn't value the hit tool enough.

I think you can argue that the evaluators didn't really miss on Arraez, he just managed to exceed expectations for a couple of fun seasons.

I don't know the GG has it in him to be a batting champion, but it does look like he's got enough pop in his bat and ability to take a walk to put up an OPS in the .800 range, which is just fine for a corner OF, even if they're not a great defender. If you think his slugging is a mirage, and that he simply won't be able to rack up enough doubles and get to 10-15 homers...then yeah. He won't hit enough to play corner OF. If you think his OBP is propped up too much by minor league pitchers who miss the zone wildly and he'll be swinging at everything as he tries to make the last leaps...then yeah. He's not going to get on base enough to be a corner OF.

But the numbers he's put up in the minors to date suggest a different hitter. I value results on the field more than projection or even scouting evaluation of tools, but that's a personal preference.

It can be a challenge to find a good comp for a player like GG. I think it's fair that his tools are more limited, and most of the time with guys like that their strongest tools aren't usually good enough to overcome their deficiencies, which start to show more as they move up in competition. Usually guys who are slow but have a great hit tool tend to show out power production fairly early. Guys who hit for high average but don't have big home run power often have speed as an additional tool in their bag rather than a big arm. He's an unusual prospect that maybe doesn't fit the mold well, which could lead to him be undervalued...or have a difficult path to make it to and stick in MLB?

Right now, though, he's hitting up a storm in AA at 21 and looking like he can handle more. That feels worth the risk to me.

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

When young, Oliva couldn’t play the OF at all, he was 4-9 in his ‘62 cup of coffee ….. went 3-7 in ‘63……couldn’t catch a fly ball or get to a fly ball ………..won a Gold Glove in ‘66. OF skills can be developed - not saying he’s going to be great but could be adequate.

Bostock & Mack were pretty good hitting corner OF’s ……… not a bunch of power with either. Seems he’s earning the benefit of the doubt?

You are focusing on 2 opposite things. Oliva had enough raw defensive tools plus proven HR power, fine for RF.

Shane Mack & Lyman Bostock played a lot of CF & were very good hitters that qualified them w/o being HR hitters.

Gonzalez's glove at best is a RFer but doesn't hit HRs to profile there. Maybe he was adjusting to a new team so he was apprehensive in RF (which made him appear slow & lazy) maybe he can improve defensively to be a better RFer (not anything more) but I don't see him ever hitting enough HRs to qualify him for a MLB call-up there.

like Oliva, Wallner has a lot of raw defensive tools to play RF. How many years has he played professional ball & how much has he improved during those years? Oliva started proball in '61, it took him until '66 to obtain a GG. Wallner started in '19. I don't see the same raw defensive tools with Gonzalez.

It's sad that the game has gotten to a point where a guy is OPSing 946 in the higher levels of the minors at 21 yo, and the sentiment is basically "that doesn't matter, because he probably won't hit very many home runs"

I wonder what the OPS of the MLB Twins collective DH position is this year.  I'm pretty sure they would be better off with a guy with a .946 OPS and 7 homers.  That would be the 3rd highest OPS in the AL, but it wouldn't be achieved by hitting homers and doesn't allow guys to get their "off days", so Doesn't Matter.

2 minutes ago, Chris Hove said:

To me, his profile bears a strong resemblance to Dan Gladden, with a few notable differences. They both are corner infielders; they both are good contact gap hitters, and both of them were good fielders. I think Gonzalez has the edge in fielding and arm strength. Gladden was a great base stealer, and I think Gonzalez can be too with a different approach. His injuries have significantly hindered his progress in the SB department, and as a result, he has adjusted his approach. Neither player hit a lot of home runs, but Gladden went on to have a great career and was pivotal in the Twins winning the 91 World Series. I think Gabby could become a player like that. The power will be an issue for him, but I hope to see more at-bats and a healthier Gonzalez to realize his potential fully. Also, free swinger or not, he has a 9.8% K% rate, which would be the best in the league if he had enough at-bats, and considerably lower than last year and this year in High-A. His BB% is also higher. I'm still in on him to make an impact, but not all-star potential. The guy is 21, can't give up yet IMO.

Gladden was a much better defensive player than GG has shown, and a much worse hitter. I'd argue that Gladden was a bit overrated on the basepaths, as he got thrown out more than you'd like (70% success rate just isn't enough), but GG really doesn't look like he'll be much of a threat with his (lack of speed) speed. GG is going to have to hit quite a bit better than Gladden to have a significant career, unless his defense improves a lot. I don't really see the comp here.

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I guess Trevor Larnach is the reason for the "negativity." I don't think this is really "negativity" in the first place, though. I think its people being realistic. I think most people on this board are saying he's a major leaguer, but not a star. Larnach was 22 in his first full year in professional baseball with a near .900 OPS in AA. Had questions about whether or not he could ever get to real power, wasn't fast, and couldn't field. He's a 1-1.5 WAR player, at his best, in the majors. 115ish OPS+ kind of corner bat with a bad glove and no speed.

Interesting comp, but the LH v RH change might impact the upside, as Larnach is a platoon bat. Larnach also has the missed 2020 minor league season screwing up his development and a litany of injuries that have held him back as well. GG had a bit of a lost season in 2024 because of injuries, but so far he's been healthy in 2025.

Larnach did have 23 homers in 2023 between 2 levels, and looks like a guy who can give you 15-20 homers in a full season? If GG can be Larnach with 50 more points of BA, he's probably a good enough hitter for your corner OF and more than a 1-1.5 bWAR player in a full time role. It'll be interesting to see how he develops. I feel like Larnach's development got messed up by the missing 2020 minor league season and nagging injuries (playing through turf toe can be done, but it's going to drag you down). If GG can avoid the injury bug, I think he can be better than Larnach?

If we need to comp him to an ex-Twin, I'd go with a right handed Robbie Grossman or Steve Braun.  Limited ability defenders with average speed, marginal HR power, good hit tools and good OBP.  They both had a few good years.  Braun especially was a useful player at his peak.  Hopefully Gonzalez can exceed them.

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

Perhaps someday we will have 'won' the Polanco trade.. and Justin Topa will have been long forgotten.

I'm amazed at the commentary around Polanco.  He certainly wasn't missed last year and this year, he would be another DH on a team full of them.  Polanco was a very good, and likeable, Twin for many years, but let's keep in perspective where he was at in his career for the trade.  

21 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I do wish we'd quit it with the subpar speed/defense prospects but I guess that's just what this front office loves. Maybe a move to 1B is warranted? I know his bat might not be quite good enough, but this organization needs depth at 1B and I'd rather have him there instead of as a mediocre OF who can't cut it once he makes it to the majors. We've had enough of those guys and give me Gonzalez over the next middling vet/Miranda/Julien at 1B, given he can handle it in the minors. He has yet to play even a single inning in the minors there so it's probably a longshot.

We just spent our first round pick on a glove-first SS and have added several prospects in the last couple of years with speed & defense as well. People need to get past the mindset that this front office has one specific type of player they draft, because there's pretty consistently guys that come along before or after that break that mold.

First it was they only draft slow college sluggers, then it's small college pitchers, then it's they won't draft high school pitchers, or they won't draft speed or defense, and then it's they like drafting injured players (right now it seems to be "they won't draft catchers" the most) but the reality is they simply don't appear to be dogmatic about anything in the draft other than going for what they perceive as the best value in the draft and that they don't draft for "need".

I mean this year they drafted a glove first college SS, a major college/conference starter coming off an injury, a hyper athletic high school kid, a smaller (southern) college starter, a major college starter, a juco starter, and a high school SS with their first 7 picks.

I'm quite certain they plucked GG from Seattle because he was the best prospect they thought they could get from Seattle in that trade, regardless of tools/background. They're all about value. Whether they always get proper value for their picks and players...YMMV. But I simply don't see a team that falls into those neat categories of "they don't value defense" or "they're obsessed with homers" or even "they don't care about strikeouts" that people like to put on the front office.

5 hours ago, BillyBallLives said:

Jury is still out on the trade that acquired Gonzales, but we do know the Twins traded away a proven, versatile MLB player in Jorge Polanco for two injured pitchers and a couple of maybe prospects.

Classic Falvey.

I hope Gonzales pans out, but it’s hard to see how this helps the big-league club anytime soon.

Insane take......every team in MLB would take GG for Polanco straight up right now and this is the best Polanco has played since the trade.  

Yeah, the article is on point.  If not for last year, though, I might have more of an argument against it.  He's definitely BABIP dependent, which is okay if your BABIP is consistently high and you don't strikeout much.  Wade Boggs!  That means line drives with high exit velocities.  What can affect the ability to output that consistently?  A lot.  Minor injury, stance, trying to get more lift, not seeing the ball as well, facing better command (hello, Jose Miranda).

So I don't know what happened last year, but I suspect the Twins had plans to build his hit tool into a hit/power tool.

FYI, I follow all prospects in all orgs, and Seattle's low A (Modesto?) is a huge hit factory.  All their good and decent prospects crush there then struggle thereafter, comparatively, so that does explain some, I think.  Also recognize that Wichita and St. Paul are hitters paradises, too.

I rank Gonzalez high among Twins hitting prospects, but I shake my head every time I do, because it's not really that I believe for sure he'll make it.  Twins hitting is just really bad, with only really Jenkins and Keaschall any good.  Culpepper has a chance, but he's older than Gonzalez and doing less, sort of.  EmRod, not really.  The only reason I keep EmRod in the top 10 Twins is the power and a few unknowns.

Don't get fooled by Wichita stats...or St. Paul stats, and be very cognizant of age and K rate.