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We knew coming into this year that the Minnesota Twins were going to have a bad bullpen. When you trade all of your best relievers and do little to replace them, that's inevitable. But it also seemed like there was a good chance this inevitably lackluster relief corps was not going to matter.
The Twins lost 90 games last year and their Vegas over/under this year had them in the same vicinity. If the team was going to be flat-out bad, then there wouldn't be many leads to protect, no postseason race in the balance.
Alas, here we are. As we head into July, the Twins are firmly on the radar of contention, four games below .500 but within spitting distance of playoff position. Through 88 games, Minnesota's offense has outscored every other American League team. Their rotation, if Bailey Ober can return at the level of a decent back-end starter, is solid one through five with a legitimate ace at the top.
That is, theoretically, the makeup of a club that should be fancying itself a contender in one of the weakest AL competitive landscapes we can remember. But, that bullpen, whew. We knew it would be bad but it's been worse than bad, with the highest ERA in the majors at 5.43 and an egregious 6.94 mark in June.
In some ways, the impact of this this run-hemorrhaging relief corps has been muted, because a lot of their ugliest moments have come in lopsided games that were already more or less decided. That's why the Twins look relatively better by Win Probability Added, ranking 23rd in the majors versus dead last. But this unit is direly short on dependable options, and there's little doubt it will torpedo any chance of a legit second-half push as currently comprised — especially with the offense likely to come back to earth. The loss of Anthony Banda, who'd shaken off a slow start to post a 2.45 ERA in his past 30 appearances, is a devastating blow.
Is there anything they can do? The trade deadline will represent an opportunity for modest additions and upgrades (I'm not expecting much more), but the Twins also need to sort out what they have and optimize internally for the final three months. Here's a look at their current relief corps and how they might proceed, in order of confidence level to play a valuable role.
Yoendrys Gómez
He looks like a true find amid a sea of waiver claim flops. Certainly I'm not expecting him to keep up at his current level — the 3.4% HR/FB rate is a glaring regression red flag — but he's got a quality arsenal and he's thrived after being thrust into a high-leverage role. In an ideal scenario he's probably pitching in the seventh rather than closing, but he's a viable late-inning arm. That's one at least.
Andrew Morris
The most promising success story in Minnesota's bullpen so far. In contrast to Gómez, Morris' surface numbers actually understate how well he's pitched: his 2.79 FIP and 2.97 xERA are well below the 3.89 ERA, and his Statcast sliders are blazing red. This looks like the prototype scenario for transitioning a marginal starter to a standout reliever, and the Twins will have to make it happen several more times.
Eric Orze
Big drop-off from the top two to number three on this list. Orze, like Morris, has underperformed his peripherals (3.18 FIP and 3.97 xERA vs. 5.08 ERA) but I'm less convinced there is a credible back-end relief arm here. His K-rate is under 20%, his control has been poor and to the extent his numbers are adequate, it's in large part because he's allowed only one home run in 39 innings. That's not sustainable. Nevertheless, the 28-year-old worth keeping around as a lower-leverage option.
Taylor Rogers
I'm torn on Rogers. At times he has looked completely cooked, including last Tuesday when he got clobbered by the Dodgers for five earned runs in one inning. But he's sort of a microcosm of the Twins bullpen at large: very bad overall, less so situationally. Many of his worst outings have come in situations like the Dodgers game, where the Twins were already down 7-2 when he entered. His experience and left-handedness are worth keeping in the mix with Banda down, but again, you'd much prefer if he was your third lefty relief option versus your first.
Travis Adams
Another guy I'm a bit torn on. Adams throws reasonably hard and his 29.9% K-rate outranks all Twins pitchers (including Joe Ryan) dating back to last year's trade deadline. At the same time, his fastball is crushable as a Coors Light, and he's got a 7.23 ERA and 5.22 FIP in 55 MLB innings. Adams had a mediocre 4.50 career ERA in the minors. He's the kind of guy who you'd be interested in seeing more of in a non-competitive season but a clear liability if the Twins are trying to consistently win.
Marco Raya
Called up last week, he's only made two relief appearances for the Twins but Raya has avoided melting into a puddle, and that's an accomplishment for a 23-year-old with a history of yips, getting his first taste of the majors. Raya has solid long-term potential but is a shaky bet to produce at an above-average level or deliver in key situations right now. Another guy best suited for taking lumps in a lost season versus pitching meaningful innings down the stretch.
Kody Funderburk
He can't throw strikes. Seventeen walks versus 11 strikeouts in 20 innings this year. Yuck. He's gotten decent enough results when in the strike zone, so Funderburk is maybe not worth giving up on, but you can't count on him under any circumstances at this point. We've reached the tier of the bullpen where the Twins have absolutely got to upgrade if they want to be any kind of threat.
Cody Laweryson
I've got nothing against Laweryson but I also haven't been given any real reason to believe. His velocity is lowest of any bullpen righty. He lacks a legit secondary pitch. Laweryson looks like a minor-leaguer pitching in the majors, which I guess is what should be expected from someone who made his MLB debut at 28, out of sheer need last September, and got designated for assignment by two bad teams during the offseason, passing through waivers the second time.
There's your Twins bullpen. There are two remotely dependable options for late innings or high leverage, and even they carry a certain degree of blow-up potential. It's not impossible that Orze and Rogers could round into respectable form, but the bottom half of the relief corps needs major improvement if this team is going to make a push. Here are the possible reinforcements from within worth tracking:
Kendry Rojas: Easily the most intriguing figure on the farm. He's shown electric stuff in six appearances for the Twins, even while struggling to command the zone. There's no bigger wild-card in the system with regards to the rest of this season, but the Twins have to decide how they want to proceed with the lefty. Can they afford to not have him stretched out when he's their only remaining line of defense in the rotation?
Cole Sands: He experienced a setback with his forearm two weeks ago, stalling his rehab, but threw an encouraging bullpen session on June 27th, and could return this month. Aside from Rojas, Sands is likely the best hope for a difference-making internal add.
David Festa: Higher potential impact than Sands but much lower odds of returning for a substantial portion of the second half. Dealing with a persistently balky right shoulder, Festa was still multiple weeks from facing live hitters at last check. He hasn't pitched in almost a full year.
Mike Paredes: With Ober on track to rejoin the rotation, shifting Paredes into a relief role would be an option. He's performed admirably as a rotation plug, albeit with ugly underlying numbers. I'm not sure he's got the stuff to be anything more than a Laweryson-caliber piece out of the bullpen.
C.J. Culpepper: A sleeper in Triple-A. He's got relatively high-caliber stuff with a 3.20 career ERA in the minors and a track record of keeping the ball in the park. But he has made only seven appearances above Double-A and strike-throwing can be an issue. Probably more of an interesting candidate for 2027 than this year.
John Klein: The Twins liked him enough to protect him on the 40-man last offseason, but haven't shown much inclination to deploy him in their MLB bullpen this year. He's made three appearances for the Twins, two of them as an opener. In Triple-A he has allowed 13 home runs in 45 innings. Like Culpepper, he's being treated as more of a future-looking option.
The Twins are thin on upside in their current bullpen and there's not a whole lot more looming in the minors, although Rojas is a notable exception and Sands has the capability to move the needle if he comes back healthy. What becomes clear through this exercise is that they need outside help if they're going to support a contention effort versus sabotaging it.
And it brings us to the defining question of this season, which the next several weeks may sort out: Is this a team worth investing in, at its core? There are major implications in trading away from the future value pool, even as light buyers, rather than adding to it as sellers. You don't want to end up severely regretting your decision by mid-August.
If they're leaning in the "buy" direction, the front office would be wise to try and act sooner than later, because they are going to have a hard time staying in the range of competitiveness with this current assortment of relief arms.
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