Week in Review: Coming Undone

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/2 through Sun, 9/8
***
Record Last Week: 2-5 (Overall: 76-67)
Run Differential Last Week: -13 (Overall: +38)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB) 

Game 137 | MN 5, TB 4: Key Hits and Clutch Relief Lift Twins
Game 138 | TB 2, MIN 1: Bats Unable to Awaken Against Springs
Game 139 | TB 9, MIN 4: Varland Implodes, Defense Flops
Game 140 | MIN 4, TB 3: Lopez Leads the Way to Salvage Split
Game 141 | KC 5, MIN 0: Twins Go Quietly in Opener at Kauffman
Game 142 | KC 4, MIN 2: Bullpen Blows Up, Ober's Gem Wasted
Game 143 | KC 2, MIN 0: Embarrassing Sweep Ends with Shutout 

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NEWS & NOTES

It's all hands on deck for the injury-ravaged Minnesota Twins, who now find themselves just 3 ½ games in front of Seattle for the final playoff position. Last week Max Kepler joined Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa on the injured list, with DaShawn Keirsey Jr. called up to try and help fill the growing veteran void in the lineup. Michael Helman had been promoted from Triple-A days earlier, bringing into the fold two players with zero major-league experience in the heat of a postseason race.

Correa remains sidelined indefinitely, and Buxton's return is now very much in question after he experienced a setback while rehabbing from his hip injury in St. Paul on Wednesday. Kepler's timeline is unclear, but he's been dealing with this knee issue for the entire season. If the Twins aren't confident he can give them more than he has over the past couple of months, then there's no real point in bringing him back. It would be a sad end for the franchise's longest-tenured player.

Louie Varland was recalled to serve as bulk pitcher in Wednesday's game against Tampa Bay, with Diego Castillo optioned to the minors. Varland got through two perfect innings against the Rays before falling apart in his third, where he allowed eight runs while recording one out. With that, the inevitable became official: On Friday, the Twins announced Varland will be formally transitioning to a bullpen role. 

HIGHLIGHTS

If the Twins are able to hang on and reach the playoffs, they've got the makings of a formidable short-series rotation. Pablo López and Bailey Ober delivered strong outings in their latest turns and both went deep, which the team is counting on them to do in support of a depleted bullpen. López struck out nine over 6 ⅔ innings in a win over Tampa on Thursday, and Ober hurled seven shutout frames against Kansas City on Saturday to slay his Royals demons. 

Since the halfway point of June, Ober and López rank eighth and 12th respectively among qualified MLB pitchers in ERA. That's what you want in your 1-2 starters.

Meanwhile, David Festa is quickly solidifying his standing as third in line for any potential postseason scenario, missing bats at a fantastic rate while continuing to showcase surprisingly sharp command. Facing Tampa on Tuesday, the rookie fanned seven with only one walk over five frames of two-run ball, leaving his ERA at 3.13 in 37 ⅓ innings since his latest call-up after the All-Star break. 

Unfortunately, this trio of starting pitchers essentially represented the extent of positives in what was – all things considered – probably the worst week of the season for the Twins.

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins lineup isn't producing enough to win games. Plain and simple. There are many other contributing culprits you can point toward in this ongoing backslide to submediocrity – ill-timed meltdowns from pitchers, questionable managerial decisions, consistently poor defensive play – but the lack of run-scoring overshadows it all. 

They are without their two best hitters and the Twins are just going to need to get used to it. In all likelihood, Correa and Buxton aren't coming back, at least not until the very end of the season. Kepler is also probably down for the year. 

In the absence of these lineup cornerstones, the Twins need the rest of their key bats to step up. That's been a recurring call to action that is perpetually not being answered. 

Slumping Royce Lewis is at the forefront of the team's struggles. Without his spark the Twins seem completely bereft of energy or life. He went 4-for-25 (.160) with seven strikeouts and has homered just once – barely – in his past 24 games after going deep 15 times in his first 40. Lewis looks less like a hitter who's going through a standard slump and more like a guy who is physically depleted and grinding. He has more or less admitted as much. That makes it difficult to trust there's significant improvement on the way unless he can somehow find a second wind. 

You wonder how much physical wear-and-tear has also taken a toll on Willi Castro, who's known to have battled back troubles this year, and has seen his production plummet in the second half. He went 1-for-18 with seven strikeouts last week, and since the All-Star break is batting just .206 with 11 extra-base hits in 45 games.

In the same category as these two (unproductive, possibly unhealthy) you've got Brooks Lee, who came back after missing time with a shoulder injury but looks much the same as he did before going down: punchless at the plate. Lee went 3-for-21 with no walks, and he had some rough rookie moments in the field at shortstop.

I mean, that's just a lot to withstand. No Correa, no Buxton, no Kepler. Lewis, Castro and Lee all offering next to nothing at the plate. Even with the occasional flashes from guys like Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and even Edouard Julien, the lineup isn't going to function with so many of its core fixtures either literally or figuratively absent. As more at-bats start getting directed to the likes of Helman and Keirsey, the Twins will be at risk of a fully fledged 2022-style collapse unless their remaining hitting talent can step up.

Overall, this team is in a miserable state. The defense has been utterly atrocious, in terms of both execution and decision-making. This is costing a pitching staff that's already stretched and lurching. Tommy Watkins has been repeatedly making inexcusably bad calls as third-base coach, windmilling slow runners to the plate and costing an offense that's already stretched. On top of that, the Twins have just been horribly unlucky, with low-quality contact leading to runs for the opposition in key spots over and over again. 

You add this litany of compounding factors on top of the challenging circumstances this team already faces, and you've got the recipe for an all-out free fall. We're seeing it. 

By virtue of their stellar mid-summer run, and the widespread mediocrity in the middle of the American League pack, the Twins are still highly likely to reach the playoffs. But this is not a group that currently inspires any confidence as a legitimate contender. They're shrinking as the weight of the moment continues to grow.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Where do we go from here? Will there be a shakeup of some kind in the wake of this pitiful series in Kansas City? Uncontained frustration was the theme of the week for the Twins, and understandably so. Buxton got ejected from a minor-league game for barking at an ump on Wednesday. Around the same time, Varland exploded with screaming rage on the mound as his starting career likely reached an end.

When met by reporters following Sunday's lifeless loss, Rocco Baldelli declined to take questions or offer comment other than: "That was an unprofessional series of baseball we played and that’s all I’ve got for you.” He reportedly held a team meeting afterward.

There are three weeks and 19 games remaining on the schedule. The math is still in favor of the Twins, who miraculously maintain an 87% chance of making the postseason according to FanGraphs. But those playoff odds don't mean squat if they can't win some ballgames and hold their ground. If this team keeps playing the way they have, they are very much at risk of getting passed.

You wonder if some sort of significant last-ditch gambit to disrupt the stuffy status quo might be in play. I'm not sure what that would look like, although an Emmanuel Rodriguez promotion has been thrown out there as one far-flung possibility. (He's in Triple-A and on the 40-man roster.)

Everything should be on the table. You can't take for granted when you get a real shot at October, and while the Twins are far from the shape they hoped they be in at this stage of the game, they still very much have that shot. The front office and coaching staff should be aiming to do anything and everything in their power to avoid the catastrophic scenario where they miss out.

LOOKING AHEAD

This is a get-right week if I've ever seen one. The Twins return to Target Field for a six-game home stand against sub-.500 teams, starting with three against an Angels club with the fourth-worst record in baseball. The off day on Thursday will be very welcomed – Minnesota's first break in two weeks. 

It is imperative that the team get on track and fatten up a bit in these two series, because afterward looms the most critical gauntlet in the remaining schedule: a seven-game road trip through Cleveland and Boston.

MONDAY, SEPT 9: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Reid Detmers v. RHP David Festa
TUESDAY, SEPT 10: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Griffin Canning v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, SEPT 11: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Jack Kochanowicz v. RHP Zebby Matthews
FRIDAY, SEPT 13: REDS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Bailey Ober
SATURDAY, SEPT 14: REDS @ TWINS – RHP Nick Martinez v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
SUNDAY, SEPT 15: REDS @ TWINS – RHP Rhett Lowder v. RHP David Festa