Twins Daily 2018 Awards: Pitcher of the Year

Front office will probably give it to Belisle.

I just looked at Max Scherzer's age 24 season, 4.12 ERA (Berrios - 3.84), 3.87 FIP (3.90), 9.2 K/9 (9.5) 2.76 SO/W (3.31) 174 SO (202), 170 IP (192.1).  Similar, if not slightly better numbers, he could, and with his work ethic, should improve throughout his career.  As long as he stays healthy I think he will be good for an extended period of time.

Excellent year for Berrios, no question he should be a mainstay at the top of rotation.

For those thinking "he's still not an ace!": he was Top 10 in WHIP, K/9, and IP in the AL. He was just outside the Top 10 in bWAR and ERA. He's a #1 starter on most teams in baseball.

Love watching him pitch. I love the fact that he not only increased his number of starts this season but also his innings per start. H/9, K/9, BB/9 have improved three years in a row. He's a pitcher on the rise and if we can improve the back end of the rotation behind him, find a consistent bullpen, and settle on a lineup that gives him the run support he deserves, next year could be delightful.

So, what should the FO do with him (or all three with Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi) contract wise?

Gibson had a better year than Berrios.  He just did.  Doesn't mean he's a better pitcher than Berrios...doesn't mean that all of the underlying numbers will lead to the same type of results over time...just means he had a better year than Berrios in 2018.

Also, as a reminder...in 2018 all Twins pitchers benefited from nearly 60 starts...more than a third of the schedule...against White Sox, KC, and Detroit.  Truly awful teams/lineups.  And those lineups can only be getting better over the next few years.

For those that think Berrios's numbers stand up as 'no. 1' numbers...look at his splits for results against under/over 500 teams this year.  Downright ugly numbers against the top half of the league.

I don’t think Berrios is an obvious choice. Gibson pitched more innings, had a better ERA, and was far more consistent. Anecdotally, it seems to me that Gibson had more starts against the elite teams in the AL and fared well against the best. Yes, Berrios has a brighter future, but for today it was a very close call and I’d pick Gibson because of less poor starts and the ability to adjust when he came out with something short of his best stuff.

Edit: Honest I didn’t see the post above when I made my post! Nice post jkcarew.

Gibson pitched 4 1/3 more innings. It's a push. Gibson had a better ERA, Berrios had a better FIP. Berrios had a better K/9, BB/9, H/9, WHIP...the peripherals around Berrios are just a bit better. They had similar overall seasons and their bWAR is almost identical (fWAR thinks Berrios was significantly more valuable, but that's a different story) but I think most teams around MLB would take Berrios over Gibson and not just on age.

For those that think Berrios's numbers stand up as 'no. 1' numbers...look at his splits for results against under/over 500 teams this year.  Downright ugly numbers against the top half of the league.

Took the time to look at this.  Compiled manually from Baseball Reference.com...so I may have a mistake in here somewhere, but the theme was real for Berrios in 2018...

Berrios against better-than-500 teams (finished better than 500) in 2018...

16 starts; 88.1 IP; team record 5-11; Berrios record 2-8

ERA:  5.71; WIP:  1.49

He's 24 years old.  Definitely showing signs of having a better upside than this.  But, the Twins need to be thinking about improving the staff...including improving it at the top end...if they want to contend in 2019.

Berrios was a good choice.  Had you selected Gibson, that would also have been a good choice.  Both had very good seasons.

Expect Berrios to take another step next year...becoming a true ACE.  Those who commented above are probably right and if he has 4 years control remaining signing long-term can wait a year.  Is he arbitration eligible next year?  If not, the Twins should reward him with more than what they could cram down his throat.

If I were in the FO, I would sign Gibby to 3-4 years.  That gives them 2 front line starters to build around.  Add Romero, Thorpe and Graterol over the next year or year and a half and they should have the best starting rotation in a long time, one that you just might be able to win with. 

I'd say Berrios, but Gibson had a great season also. I give it Berrios because he has more left to improve. I honestly don't see Gibson being any better than he was this past year. In fact, I'd plan on him trending down from here on out if I was running the show. 

Contractually, I wouldn't do anything with any of them. If Berrios makes it the next couple of years and keeps improving, go ahead and extend him then. There is too much that can go wrong to give him big money right away.

Gibson, we have seen him capable of being good yes, but have also seen him be pretty poor as well. Make him prove it again next year. Unless he would be willing to sign an extension that locks him up for 2019-2021 at a reasonable price, then I guess I'd listen. 

Odorizzi has to average more than 5 innings a start. His overall numbers are fine, but it weighs on the bullpen too much to go short as often as he did. If you have three or four guys that average six or more, then you can get away with an Odorizzi at #4 or #5. 

 

I would like to see the Twins stick with 12 pitchers all year and maybe juggle a little and have 11 for some period of time. That would require having guys that more often than not work into the seventh inning. I'm hopeful Pineda and Meija (or Stewart or Gonsalves) are able to go deep pretty often. 

i Agree too many short starts, but I was surprised he was 26th in innings pitched in the AL.

The Twins had 3 pitchers in the top 26, that is above average.