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    Twins Being Overwhelmed By Underperformance


    Nick Nelson

    The quotes provided by Twins owner Jim Pohlad in a much-discussed Chip Scoggins column that appeared in the Star Tribune last week included some controversial and heavily scrutinized comments.

    In my mind, the general sense of bewilderment and cluelessness conveyed by the team owner in his answers was utterly uninspiring, and representative of leadership that is largely ambivalent to the product on the field.

    But to be fair, the core points Pohlad was making were not wrong.

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    Expressing unequivocal confidence in the general manager who has already dropped four of the 25 players that were on his Opening Day roster, or the second-year manager whose team has looked remarkably unprepared to compete most nights, in the face of an 8-23 start is not a great look. However, it is understandable to an extent.

    As Dan Wade astutely pointed out here on Friday, the Twins aren’t really well served by putting anyone on the hot seat publicly right now. And really, trying to heap mountains of blame on either Terry Ryan or Paul Molitor misses the point.

    While there have been plenty of questionable decisions, this WAS a talent-laden roster. This WAS a team on the rise. This WAS unanimously viewed as one of the best prospect pipelines in the game.

    If even half the players on this club were playing up to their established ability level, things would not be nearly so dire. This is especially frustrating with the veterans, who were asked to fill a leadership void that emerged with Torii Hunter’s retirement. Instead they have helped set the tone for this miserable stretch of baseball with repeated gaffes and failures.

    Let’s take a look, position by position, at the contagious underperforming that has plagued this Twins roster.

    Catcher: The Twins have made their own bed here by continuously miscasting Kurt Suzuki as a starting player, but he’s playing drastically below this standard. The veteran has a .679 career OPS, and a .670 OPS in two years with the Twins. His current mark is .560, and he's hitting .176 with runners in scoring position. Of course, there’s no need to even remark on the subpar production from John Ryan Murphy prior to his demotion.

    First Base: The lone bright spot. Joe Mauer has had a sensational season and of course it’s going largely unnoticed because the team has been so crummy. The same goes for Byung Ho Park, although his novelty as a foreign star and rookie has enabled him to enjoy some nice attention.

    Second Base: Brian Dozier has picked up where he left off, and that's not a good thing. His current .220/.309/.385 slash line bears disconcerting resemblance to his .210/.280/.359 after the break last year. Fortunately, he has been showing signs of heating up lately.

    Shortstop: Eduardo Escobar landed on the disabled list after suffering a groin strain on Friday, and maybe that's just as well. He could use a reset after a first month that saw him fail at the key things that made him an effective player over the last two years. Specifically, I'm talking about hitting for power and playing reliable defense. His .289 slugging percentage is down 150 points from 2015 and he has already committed five errors at shortstop after totaling four last year.

    Third Base: Although Trevor Plouffe has been hitting for decent power when he's been on the field, his plate approach has deteriorated. The 29-year-old has drawn only two walks in 65 plate appearances, resulting in a hideous .277 on-base percentage. He's hardly stepping up in the way you'd hope as one of the roster's cornerstone vets.

    Left Field: A demotion can't be far off for Eddie Rosario, who is batting .196 with a .534 OPS. He's swinging at a whopping 40 percent of pitches outside the zone, and despite his reputation as a "bad ball hitter" he's not doing anything with the garbage he's hacking at, as illustrated by a .222 BABIP and only five extra-base hits in 98 trips.

    Center Field: What is there to be said about Byron Buxton? It was tough to set expectations for him coming into this year given his lack of experience, but no one could have anticipated a sub-.500 OPS with strikeouts in half of his plate appearances. Even accounting for the expected sophomore slumps and rookie learning curves, what we've seen from Rosario and Buxton at the plate has been disheartening.

    Right Field: Miguel Sano's .707 OPS is down more than 200 points from the mark he posted as a rookie. Oddly he hasn't been hitting for power even though he leads baseball in line drive percentage. I fully expect him to come around and get hot at some point soon but there's no doubt that he has let the team down thus far.

    Rotation: You've got Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes, two veterans who signed long-term contracts to be foundations in the rotation, failing to complete even four innings in their latest starts, at a time where the team is desperately in need of a spark. Tommy Milone was about as bad as he's ever been before his demotion. Kyle Gibson, a guy who was trending up in every way, pitched horrendously before going on the shelf.

    Bullpen: Glen Perkins has been unavailable. Kevin Jepsen has been ineffective. That 1-2 punch was the source of whatever confidence this unit could have justified. Multiple relievers (Casey Fien, Ryan O'Rourke, J.R. Graham) pitched poorly enough in one of month of the season to essentially erase themselves from the team's plans.

    Each year, invariably, some players step it up and excel to the max of their ability while others come up short. Right now the scale is tipped so far in the wrong direction for the Twins that they barely look like a competitive team most nights.

    While it's a cliche to point out that the manager can't go out and swing the bat or throw pitches from the mound, it's true. It might be tidier to pin these horrible results on the skipper, or the hitting/pitching coach, but the messy truth is that it's the players who are wearing this and only they can stem the tide.

    These guys know how to play ball. It's about damn time they started.

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    I would add that he also can't seem to figure out when (at at what terms) to offer extensions. Suzuki, Hughes and Dozier were all questionable extensions. 

     

    I was counting the second Suzuki signing as a FA move.....but agreed on the Hughes extension for sure. That was just not a good idea. I have no issue with the Dozier extension.

     

    Sorry Nick, the odds of this many players on the same team "slumping" being unrelated are astronomical.   =========

    I'd say there has been some bad luck. They won't lose at this clip all year.
    But mostly they are reaping what they've sewn with decisions that were completely predicted to be mistakes.

    I have been echoing what you've said time and again.  Those are all valid comments.  Yes, too many players are hitting a terrible patch at the same time, and that kind of stuff feeds on itself.  

     

    The blame for the on-field product belongs to Ryan.  He created this roster sausage.  But the on-field performance I put squarely on Molly.  Another member commented that he looks over his head- and he has, not only this season, but last year, too.  You've got to, as a field manager, put your players in a position to succeed, and his mind-boggling lineups and head-scratching game decisions on an every day basis are most certainly not helping the overall situation.  I'm not going to go on a litany of them, there's just not enough bandwidth.  He, most of all, has got to get the ship righted- yet another day, another bewildering lineup, another wtf game call, it's so counter-productive.

     

    And--- I have no idea who in that clubhouse is offering anything in the way of leadership, but with such cluster of young'uns, somebody's got to take the damn reins in there.  I was not a big fan of Torii's field performance last year, and I have no idea what he specifically exerted in the clubhouse, but it does seem, without him, this rowboat has no coxswain.  How about somebody step up, huh?

     

    (Sidebar:  John Hicks, 8 games at Erie AAA:  .929 OPS)

     

     

    IMO, the issues are with the youngsters:

    • The prospects aren't ready to play in the majors (Buxton, Kepler, the relievers)
    • Rosario and Murphy need more AAA at bats
    • Arcia and Sano are still learning the game
    • Polanco and Santana need experience
    • Duffey and Berrios are just beginning their MLB careers

    All of these players need time. It sucks that they're not ready, but they are not flops or failures. Santana, Duffey, Arcia and Murphy are 25 years old. The rest are younger. They will all get better. Until that happens, the Twins will be bad.

     

    It will get a bit better when Gibson and Erv are healthy and the rust is knocked off.

     

    Also - Why no love for Nunez? He's been a bright spot. Hopefully, he continues to play well and is traded for a prospect.

     

     

     

     

    Edited by dbminn

    Others have said it, and I will say it.  The Twins have a lack of good baseball players on their roster.  

     

    So, who is to blame.  Manager or GM?

     

    A GM's job is to assemble a roster full of talent.  Well, the GM has had years to put this roster together so, if we lack talent now, that problem is on him.

     

    A manager's job is to get the most out of the talent on the roster.  Essentially, ensuring that more players than not are playing at or above their historical numbers.  If we have a roster of players who aren't doing so, then the manager is not doing a good job.

     

    To me, it seems to be pretty evident that both Ryan and Molitor are failing to do their jobs.

    Honestly this is exactly what can happen when your GM manages a baseball team with no understanding of what wins baseball games and hope.

     

    A smart baseball mind would have looked at last year and said, this was a good year but one where the team clearly over-performed for about 6 weeks in May. Take that stretch out and we were not a very good baseball team. Instead Ryan seems to do the opposite. He filled none of the obvious holes like bullpen, didn't plan at all for the fact that his closer was a disaster for 2 straight 2nd halves, and made one of the most asinine decisions in the history of the game to move the organizations best prospect to the OF because he could be bothered to trade an league average 3rd baseman.

     

    The "total system failure" was engineered by one person, Terry Ryan.

     

    Molitor's issues seem to be he is pressing for answers and is constantly changing everything. He just needs to calm down and and decide what line up he's going to go with and just ride them for a couple of weeks. That lineup yesterday was a disgrace. Molitor may need to sit Mauer and Dozier down and say, guys we need you in the lineup everyday. We need our best players on the field every game to even have a chance.

     

    I put less than 10% of this mess on the players. This organization has no mission, purpose, or plan. Jim Pohlad sounded like a baffoon in that interview. He isn't going to lead in any meaningful way the direction of this organization. Terry Ryan is a dinosaur. The game isn't played the way he thinks anymore. Every decision he makes sets the team back even further. Molitor I think could be a decent manager but not when he's in panic mode. Organizations need leadership and this team is getting none of it for the Twins this season. 

    Just a gut feeling:  I think some of the young players have a sense of entitlement.  They've had their 1 year in the MLB's and think the job is theirs no matter what. 

     

    Tom Kelly would never have allowed that to happen.

     

    Why do you let a guy like Chris Herrmann go. He hit two home runs yesterday and has 4 in 42 at bats. He can also play the outfield. And yes I know Palko is tearing up AAA. We have a bottomless hole at catcher. No one have ever said Stuart a Turner will eventually hit major league pitching but the guys we have now can't either.

     

    Wow, somehow I hadn't been paying attention to Chris Herrmann this year. .844 OPS.

    I think the coach and GM have made too many poor roster decisions to put it on the players.  Certain guys need to step up, but some guys shouldn’t be on our roster and others have not been put in the best position by the Twins.

    Sano is on pace for a negative dWAR of 3 this year.  The move has definitely impacted his hitting.  All of this for Trevor Plouffe?  Who we keep hitting 4th for some reason.

     

    May to the pen has been beaten to death.  But it is costing this team wins.

    And going back as far as I can remember, TR has extended mediocre relievers and looked to the dumpster for help.  Every year.  Here are the Twins pen rankings from 2011 to 2016:

     

    29th in WAR (8.8 total)
    27th in ERA (3.88)
    30th in k/9 (6.95)

     

    The kicker is these numbers were padded by a few really good seasons out of Glen Perkins, who was closing on terrible teams and should have been flipped. 

     

    And why would we DFA Ryan O’Rourke?  He is young, has options, and has been un-hittable against lefties.  This is a knee jerk, throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

     

    Just a gut feeling:  I think some of the young players have a sense of entitlement.  They've had their 1 year in the MLB's and think the job is theirs no matter what. 

     

    Tom Kelly would never have allowed that to happen.

     

    I don't necessarily agree with this statement, but if I did, these would be my thoughts.  Entitlement is created when roster spots are cleared for your young prospects rather than having to take them.  When you have a terrible team, and you look to your prospects to save the franchise.  The Twins gave the power and leadership to their young players, and now they have to deal with how they handle it.

     

    <snip>

     

    No accountability shows no credibility.  For both the front office and the owners.  I am not saying fire them all right now, but Pohlad could do one single thing without firing anyone right now:

     

    He can actually hire a baseball person who has never been associated with a Terry Ryan Front Office and has a record of building wining teams, give him the title of President of Baseball Operations and have Ryan report to him.  This person, with the help of any outside the organization advisers he needs, can assess the situation and the staff in the front office, on the field and in the minors for the next 4 months and come the off-season he would have a carte blanche to build the Twins baseball operations including the front office the way he wants to.   Also, he would have enough time to assess the personnel to lead the work on deadline trades and the draft.

     

    <snip> 

     

    This is an excellent suggestion.

     

    This is an excellent suggestion.[/quote

     

    Yes. Exactly what a struggling business does. Hire a consultant to come in and provide an unbiased report on all the issues plaguing the company.

     

    The only issue is you have to want to know what the issues are. I think they have a decent idea but don't want to face them.

    Tossing Aaron Hicks away for a Murphy, who was obviously going to be bad (not this terrible, but still) was an awful decision (Hicks has been bad offensively for the Yankees, but he had been playing one out of every three games for the Yankees until Ellsbury went down--every day PAs would help him). Banking on Kevin Jepsen (I really should dig up my history of posts on that guy for "I told so" moments) to be an anchor with Perkins instead of adding another high quality reliever was a mistake. Favoring a declining 3B over a likely superstar and putting that superstar out in the OF is a horrific mistake.

    If several of us morons on a sports jabbering site (no offense, TD) can see this ahead of time, what does that say about the GM?

     

    Just a gut feeling:  I think some of the young players have a sense of entitlement.  They've had their 1 year in the MLB's and think the job is theirs no matter what. 

     

    Tom Kelly would never have allowed that to happen.

     

    Well that's because Kelly never would have let them play, he did not like young players.

     

    What kind of evidence have you seen that says the young players act entitled? Arcia, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Santana, Duffey, Meyer and May have all been humbled by multiple demotions to the minors, pen or bench.

     

    This just sounds like an assumption based on our perception of Millennials. The only person we as fans can even presume to guess has an entitled attitude is Ricky Nolasco who through his agent made a stink about the prospects of him being moved to the pen.

     

    If several of us morons on a sports jabbering site (no offense, TD) can see this ahead of time, what does that say about the GM?

     

    Hey, most of us morons have led a team to at least(*) as many World Series as this GM the last 20some years.

     

    (*) never know who is jabbering here.

    Edited by Thrylos

     

    1) Players are bad

    2) Ryan signed/Drafted these players

    3) Ryan is responsible

     

    Are the players as bad as they are currently performing? That's a tough case to make. I named about 20 players in this article and a total of two (TWO) are playing up to their established career baseline or above.

     

     

    Perhaps all these "slumps" and "under performances" only look that way to an inflated set of hope-fueled expectations rather than reality?

    There's no "reality" that pointed toward a .250 winning percentage. I'm not sure how it's an inflated set of hope-fueled expectations to believe this team could hang around .500 this year after winning 83 last year. If the Twins were merely bad it would be a different story but this is beyond that. 

     

    Well that's because Kelly never would have let them play, he did not like young players.

     

    What kind of evidence have you seen that says the young players act entitled? Arcia, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Santana, Duffey, Meyer and May have all been humbled by multiple demotions to the minors, pen or bench.

     

    This just sounds like an assumption based on our perception of Millennials. The only person we as fans can even presume to guess has an entitled attitude is Ricky Nolasco who through his agent made a stink about the prospects of him being moved to the pen.

    Really.  Nolasco has an entitled attitude, but you wouldn't say the same thing about Rosario and Sano?

    I'd say this is an assumption on your part, not mine.

    Rosario is not hitting at all, yet gives off an air like he doesn't really care.  And I don't know what Sano is thinking the outcome will be with that article in the St.Paul paper and the constant attitude he's giving towards umpires.

     

    Would anyone be surprised if Brunansky lost his job in the next week or two?  I don't have a strong feeling on him one way or the other, but that seems like the easiest scapegoat for a team unwilling to change management.  

    I said it last week.  Is there some mechanic he is teaching these players or not teaching them that makes them look pathetic at the plate...not the right approach...striking out way too much.  Baffling....I am with you, something has to change and it could be Brunansky.  But then again we let some coaches stick around way to long before.  

     

    Hey, most of us morons have led a team to at least(*) as many World Series as this GM the last 20some years.

     

    (*) never know who is jabbering here.

     

    I have led multiple teams to multiple championships in MLB 2K and The Show. Ryan just needs to figure out how to turn down the difficulty settings, but you know how older people are with technology.

    Edited by Taildragger8791

    There is no player on this team over the age of 33. I find that to be a red flag. The fact that Dozier and Plouffe are two of the guys being leaned on as "veterans" on this team is crazy. Dozier has 3 full seasons to his name, and Plouffe only 4. They themselves should have an established veteran to turn to keep them in check.

     

    There's no "reality" that pointed toward a .250 winning percentage. I'm not sure how it's an inflated set of hope-fueled expectations to believe this team could hang around .500 this year after winning 83 last year. If the Twins were merely bad it would be a different story but this is beyond that. 

     

    No, they aren't THIS bad, but at that point we're splitting hairs about how bad is bad.   Even if half the things on your list were suddenly sunny side up we'd still be a bad baseball team. 

     

    The point is that if you're going to blame this all on "under-performing" you're giving the roster construction a pass.

    Edited by TheLeviathan

     

    There's no "reality" that pointed toward a .250 winning percentage. I'm not sure how it's an inflated set of hope-fueled expectations to believe this team could hang around .500 this year after winning 83 last year. If the Twins were merely bad it would be a different story but this is beyond that. 

     

    Pythag was exactly .500 last year (81 wins).  I think when you put a list together, a strong case could have been made for fewer wins this year.  I agree not a .250 clip, but we should not be shocked if we were a 4th or 5th place team

     

    Here are a few:

    Sano playing RF for 160 games. He is on a 3 loss pace out there defensively and it was bound to impact his offense. 

     

    More innings devoted to Ricky Nolasco. 

     

    Jepsen not having a career run like he had for the Twins last year.

     

    Regression out of Rosario and Escobar.

     

    Byron Buxton was likely not going to come out guns blazin but still likely to see a majority of the reps in CF

     

    Perkins had a pretty solid first half last year and for all we know, may never piece together another healthy season

    Edited by tobi0040

    I think two things:

     

    1. yes, they are under performing in nearly all areas.......that tends to have a multiplier effect on scoring.

     

    2. I don't think the OP is absolving the FO, it is just pointing out another issue.

     

    One thing this board tends to do is take a comment about the FO as absolving the player, or a comment about a player absolving the FO......neither is true in most/any comments, I think.

    Look, at this point in the "rebuild" (just imagine that this is happening for a second) the Twins should have already found out basically who to build around and should already have added the real FAs to fill in the gaps.

    But they are rolling with the likes of Darrin Mastroianni, Juan Centeno, and Casey Fien and co. in the bullpen.

     

    Really.  Nolasco has an entitled attitude, but you wouldn't say the same thing about Rosario and Sano?

    I'd say this is an assumption on your part, not mine.

    Rosario is not hitting at all, yet gives off an air like he doesn't really care.  And I don't know what Sano is thinking the outcome will be with that article in the St.Paul paper and the constant attitude he's giving towards umpires.

     

    I'm not making assumptions, you made a blanket statement about how the young players act entitled. If hitting poorly is proof of entitlement, than mark Suzuki, Plouffe and Dozier as entitled as well, and as much as most of us would like a new catcher, Kurt Suzuki appears to be nothing short of the ultimate professional and team player.

     

     

    . Molitor may need to sit Mauer and Dozier down and say, guys we need you in the lineup everyday. We need our best players on the field every game to even have a chance.

     

     

    Mauer has played in every game all year, til yesterday.  Dozier could use a week off the way he looks.

     

    Tossing Aaron Hicks away for a Murphy, who was obviously going to be bad (not this terrible, but still) was an awful decision (Hicks has been bad offensively for the Yankees, but he had been playing one out of every three games for the Yankees until Ellsbury went down--every day PAs would help him). Banking on Kevin Jepsen (I really should dig up my history of posts on that guy for "I told so" moments) to be an anchor with Perkins instead of adding another high quality reliever was a mistake. Favoring a declining 3B over a likely superstar and putting that superstar out in the OF is a horrific mistake.

    If several of us morons on a sports jabbering site (no offense, TD) can see this ahead of time, what does that say about the GM?

     

    Aaron Hicks has only struck out 8 times in 41 AB's so far this year.

     

    This isn't the same Aaron Hicks under performance we saw in 2013 and 2014.

     

    During 2013 and 2014... We endured 2 years of 140 K's in 467 AB's (30%)

     

    2015... We watched him progress talent wise down to 66 K's in 352 AB's (19%)

     

    Then we move him... and replaced him with a guy who struck out 50% of the time.

     

    We endured the worst of Hicks and saw him get better and now we will watch another team display the best of him down the road. (I will be proven right later until then it's just my opinion).

     

    A potential 20/20 guy moved for a player who will most likely never be a 20/20 guy and most likely never a 10 home run guy. Just a guy who if everything breaks right... will be an average player at a position that is filled with average players.

     

    We overpaid for position scarcity. Only the Giants have a Catcher who produces big time at the plate. Every other team is putting average to below average players at Catcher.

     

    We could of signed JP Arencebia or Salty and kept Hicks.

     

    If you wanted to move Hicks because you didn't like him or believe in him because of work ethic or baseball sense or whatever reason you wanted him off the roster. 

     

    Should have asked for Justin Wilson instead. Should have traded for a position where you can clearly upgrade... like the BULLPEN. 

     

    BTW... If you did believe in Aaron Hicks and still traded him. This will end up as totally indefensible. 

     

     

     

    Wow, somehow I hadn't been paying attention to Chris Herrmann this year. .844 OPS.

     

    Look at his HR/FB rate. He's had quite a bit of luck there. But it's not like he never hit in the minors. He put up above average numbers in AA and AAA. Pretty good for a catcher, which to me always made his Drew Butera-ish hitting line perplexing. Drew Butera hit like Drew Butera in the minors. Herrmann didn't. 




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