The Time For A Buxton Extension Is Now

Buxton has yet to establish a baseline or floor on his production. Is he a career player like the first half or second half? You can't offer a long term extension based only on half a season's worth of production. He won't accept a contract based on his first half and the team cannot offer a contract based only on the second half.

If you wait until numbers are exchanged in the first year of arbitration, you will find out what kind of numbers the player is looking for. At worst the team will be on the hook for a single year contract based on his actual production in comparison to other players of similar age and skill. A long term extension can then be negotiated with an idea of what both sides are looking for.

Buxton also ended the year with an injury. It would be hard to sign a long term contract with an injured player without seeing if that injury had affected his play.

I won't even begin to try and put numbers on a Buxton extension. But as a general point, if I was going to extend anyone, maybe anyone in MLB, it would be him. His ceiling is stratospheric. And his floor is only going to be determined with an injury, which is unforseeable. His defense is already elite, as is his speed and baserunning. His hitting may not end up elite, but I bet there will be a lot of guys on the stat sheets looking up at him. As for whom, Buxton or Sano to tie down first? I don't see that as much of a decision. Injuries and other issues have riddled Sano with question marks. He, not Buxton would be the one I let settle in for a year. Btw, I totally agree with the poster that said without some more quality pitching, this whole conversation may be irrelevant.

I don't see how those are even comparable. Gibson is 30 and his brief periods of success basically amount to league average performance for a month or so at a time. He's never going to cost a fortune if he finally clicks, so there's not much of an advantage for the Twins to lock him up. He doesn't even have a ceiling as an all star.

 

Buxton is 24 with a crazy high ceiling and already is elite on D and the basepaths. If he starts hitting consistently over a full season then his contract demands will skyrocket 6 months from now. By the time you've waited for him to prove it he's got the leverage to jack his price up 50%.

 

I don't think you'll ever get Sano to sign an early deal like that. There's a reason he went to Roc Nation as soon as he could. He's got his sights set on big things and taking a cheap deal to get locked up in Minnesota through his prime isn't part of that. That, and I have a suspicion he sees himself as more like Harper/Machado than as the "3 true outcomes" injury-prone slugger he's shown to be so far. The value gap between those two types of players is too enormous to close right now.

You just made a great case for why it makes sense to trade Sano as soon as trading him makes sense.  Unfortunately, with the injury and his off field problem it is going to be July at the earliest that the Twins may be able to get fair value.

"$100-110 million for 7 years or $80-90 million for 6 "

I'm in the IDK Camp.  I'd like to see another year of improvement at the plate to seal the deal.  But you can't ignore the improvements at the plate over the years.  If Buxton's improvement continues next season, he could be a very sought after commodity around the All Star Break.  

Twins have got to resign him, that's a given.

Moneywise, much better to give Buxton a gradually increasing long-term deal than shoot the wad on a free-agent that will command top dollar from start to finish. If he busts, which is unlikely, your losses will be much easier to recoup than 25x6 type deals, which a logical extension for BB would never approach. 

If he plays up to expectations, you got a deal.

It's probably already too late to get a reasonably priced extension done. But if Buxton is willing, Falvine better be all iver this.

EXACTLY! People who are saying "wait and see" don't seem to realize that Buxton may already be out of the Twins' price range.

If the Twins don't extend him now, they may never have a chance. He's a 24 year-old gold glove CF, folks. Who by the way was also voted best defensive player OVERALL in baseball, given the Wilson Award. Buxton stole 29 bases and got caught once. He even drove in a run and swiped a base in the playoff game against the Yanks.

I was a Buxton detractor last April during his slump. But his play since then has completely turned me around. Buxton is the real deal, think Andrew McCutcheon with better defense. We should all be clamoring for an extension, immediately.

If ya ain't clammorin', stop yer yammorin'!

If I were Buxton, I would not sign an extension. If he performs, he can make plenty of money through the process, and set himself up for a maximum payday when he hits free agency. I like it when a player takes the risk upon themselves, instead of living life to be paid even when they can't do the job. Not so good for the team economics, perhaps, if they do become the consistent superstar, but better for the player. Sure he can get hurt. So can we all.

Your post exemplifies everything I hate about professional sports. 

I am not sure either party has much of an understanding of what to expect from Buxton in the future.  Injuries, regression at the plate in 2018 instead of improvement would have a great affect on his leverage and value to the team.  At some point he will have to quit diving for balls.  When is that and how will it affect his defense.  Pay this guy $20M per year and maybe I am ok with him not diving for everything. 

On Dozier, I think we should expect him to leave upon free agency.  Gordon, or whomever better be ready.  

Count me in the extend him now camp.  He will never by cheaper, and if it is $7/140 or even a little more I am OK with it.  He is the next face of the franchise, pay the man. It will never be cheaper than now. 

What recent comps are there for younger players signing away their arbitration and maybe a few free agency year away?

The Altuve deal was 2013. Singleton 2014. Astros haven’t been able to make similar deals with Springer or Correa.

I would think Buxton would need to blown away by a deal to sign. In any case, the Twins can afford to pay for play in arbitration. They can’t afford to commit significant money towards poor performance.

SHows the joys of having players start their careers at an early age. Development time. And the outfield: who from the current trio do you keep - Kepler, Buxton, Rosario. Rosario has put up some pretty fine numbers, might prove to be a better bat than Sano overall. Speaking of: Sano. Hoe much, how long.

Of course, a decent contract doesn't always work out. Seems you could hardly give away Dozier going into last season. Now he's a real bargain and, unless he totally tanks (think Plouffe) could garner bigger bucks going forth.

Who are the real prospects in the wings. For the sake of the team, knowing that you have control of a player for 3-4 years is wonderful news. Of course, arbitration also gives you that comfort, sometimes at a greater cost. Some players are worth more than their arbitration price in the longrun, some are worth...less.

I'm hoping Buxton shows his stuff as a lead-off batter (replacing Dozier, who should be deserving of a 2-3 year extension with the Twins -- of course, depending on monies). 

But this might be the perfect front office. We will know for sure when the Mauer decision is made at some point. And if they vastly empty the vault for Davish.