Should the Twins Emulate the Royals?

If the Twins have a chance to add a guy like Shields, for more than a rental, I think moving unproven young prospects makes sense. It might be hard to handle, giving up a prospect and his potential, but you're getting a proven "ace" who has already realized his potential. Prospect hype is fun to hope on, but established players need to be a big part of any successful team.

Don't trade them all, you need young, cost-controlled players to round out a roster, but you have to be willing to give some talent to get some back. It might hurt to trade Sano and watch him become a 30 HR guy for the better part of the next decade, but if the return was 2 seasons of Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, or some other front of the line guy, wouldn't you make that deal?

Would you have traded Mike Trout three years ago for CC Sabbathia? Its ok if you say yes, I'm just saying there is the possibility that Buxton or Sano rocket to the top and the rental doesn't perform or gets hurt. The problem I have with pointing to the Royals is that they are just a team that a rebuild through the farm system didn't work. San Fran built their team the same way and won two world series. Tampa built their team the same way and got to the WS once and the league championship 3 more times playing in the East. The Twins did it back in the early 80's and again in 2002 and enjoyed good stretches of winning. Not all prospects pan out but all all stars were top prospects at one point. No need to trade any of it. I am all for pulling the trigger on one AL blue chip pitcher such as Shields or Lester. The Twins had a good offensive season and should just get better. The cupboard isn't bare for pitching either like it was the last three years. I believe there is the talent that could make up a supporting cast or better with the addition of just one good pitcher. Shields, Hughes, Gibson, and two of Meyer, May, Milone, Nolasco would suit me just fine with Barrios and Stewart among those on the fast track to help in a couple years.

"A batter is considered successful if he gets a hit one out of every ten trips to the plate."

Hmm, ah, No.

I am in favor (in principle) of trading prospects for proven talent.  Though, each possible trade must be scutinized--not many are worth it.  Top talent makes a huge difference.  In the rotation, acquisition of a #1 pushes every one else down a spot to face (theoretically) a weaker opposing pitcher.  I firmly believe that Johan Santana transformed the Twins from a contender to a consistent winner by being a true #1.  But a trade for a sound #2 would be a huge boost.  Vargas made a huge impact on the offense when he was promoted.  Remember Willingham in '12? Then compare his next two seasons with '12--huge!  Adding the equivalent of either a true #2 or a hitter who produces like Willingham in '12 substantially changes the Twins.

KC is a wildcard team and Shields is a free agent.

I don't want to copy that formula.

If you want a Ace, then sign Lester or Shields as a free agent.

Only trade a top prospect for a young cost controlled player.

Think long term (6-8 years) not short term (2 years).

 

 

Think long term (6-8 years) not short term (2 years).

 At some point you have to stop thinking long term and start thinking short term and take a team that is rebuilding to a team that is performing. If the team keeps building for the future, the future will never be more than a dream for next season.

Short term moves are used to go from a playoff team to a world series team.

Not from a below 500 club to a wild card team like KC did.

Unless the Twins sign Lester or another ace, the pitching staff will be in transition in 2015 but the staff should be good for 5-6 years after that.

It worked forKC this year. I did  not work last year with a better ptching staff. How many teams have added players to no avai

I thought 4 straight losing seasons was emulating the Royals.

ba-dum-tiss.

Emulate KC? What the twins have to do is stop playing it safe. They almost did it this year, signing Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey. Wish they had signed anyone else but Pelfrey. But the years before the added Willingham instead of keeping Cuddyer (yes, Cuddyer was worse than Josh that first year) and Correia. Two able-bodied, yet flat players. 

Since '91 the Twins have been content to field a competitive team, looking at what the division holds and hoping everyone else plays flat or bad and they could win the division. In the 2000's they did that quite a bit.

Prospects are just that...prospects. Who would've thought Joe Benson, Terry Ryan's five-tool guy, would be a bust. That Aaron Hicks would be less than average. Who saw Danny Santana making the successful freshman jump? Can he sustain it as a rookie. Pinto and Parmelee had shining callups but flat-lined. Parmelee the man without a true position and Pinto the man not given his position. Vargas and Arcia are promising works in progress. Dozier was a half-year sensation, but is he a longterm fix?

Will Buxton, Sano, Michael, Rosario, Koch, etc. be in the lineup fulltime in 2016. Will they be crushing the ball in 2017/2017, of be like the rookies of lore of the Royals? o you trade them anyways, hoping someone else is in the pipeline come 2017/2018/2019.

Do yousign a free agent. Giving Mauer money and 5-6-7 years and down-the-line regretting it?

Do you keep your own free agents. Would Cuddyer have hit the same in Minnesota dn be worth the extra $10 million they saved with Willingham. Did the Twins totally lowball Morneau, who was lowballed by the Rockies, too.

Can the Twins figure out line-up construction, bullpen construction, and the Billy Beane way of trading guys when they have more value (Willingham, Burton, Fien, Delmon Young, pretty much anyone) than wait another year expecting them to shine even more. Kinda like keeping a pitcher in the game for one batter or one inning too much, or not knowing to bat someone third or second when they are slumping and should probably be batting sixth or seventh, but wait, you don't have a leadoff guy, let alone a cleanup hitter, so everyone can't bat low in the order, right?

The Royals, overall, have been cheaper than the Twins because of attendance. They were in first place and drawing flies.

The Twins still had decent attendance, they have the bucks, they have the payroll space to not only spend, but absorb $15-20-25 million of worthless salary. They did it this year, with Pelfrey, basically Mauer was stagnant, Nolasco can't be that bad. Man, close to $40 million right there. Whew! 

Where did the extra $20 mill go from this year. Where did the extra monies from last year end up? Again, the Twins are playing the safe game. Like hey are anticipating loss in games AND revenue. "We will field a payroll of only $70 million because our attendance may dip even lower next year" is the thought instead of "let's really go and spend and if we win, they will come, and we can return to sellouts in the beautiful outdoor world of baseball at Target Field, the fun and entertainment of the new Saints stadium be damned and come and enjoy family-priced sports as you drive by that grand church of Sunday-only sports on your way to good food, good seats, wonderful skyline, TC Bear, and a winning team in 2015 that not only makes the wildcard, but goes deep into the playoffs in...well, stay with us thru 2015...in 2016."

Can the Twins trade prospects? Can they sign real free agents? Can they play smart baseball? They sign draftees within budget. They get minor league free agents that perform. They trade or grab others that fill holes well for a time. But they don't do well on free agents, and they don't do well on trades, overall. Not that anyone does. But the Twins "scores" seem to diminish in the eyes of what other teams successfully do.

I would be all for a Shields/Lester type of guy right now. They have the space and it is the kind of short term move that does not require giving up anything. Of course prospects don't always pan out but all "proven players" were at one point prospects and we have enough good ones to hang our hats on and wait for them to develop. Short term thinking got us Young for Garza and Capps for Ramos. It doesn't have to be choose 1-2 years or 6-8. I am thinking 2-4 but certainly never give up on any team. Anyway, Shields would theoretically give us several more wins and innings which will save the bullpen which if you remember a month ago cost us about 5 games from overuse. Add in development from Meyer and May and we are getting back to where we should be. As USchief said "its difficult to predict next year" we are becoming used to predicting prospects won't develop but that isn't a given. Hicks and Benson not developing (yet) has no bearing whatsoever on Sano, Meyer and Buxton.

Emulate KC? You mean by pushing your biggest chips "all in" before you actually have a good hand to play? KC may be playoff bound, but are they deep enough to actually make a run - to actually win a World Series? I have my doubts. Is that the goal? Just to make the playoffs? Or should we be focused on not just building a team that gets in, but a team that can make a run? I'd pick the latter.

KC went all in and grabbed a wildcard this year. If Shields walks in free agency, they'll be back to where they were before the trade - a solid core but not quite having the pieces to contend...except they won't have a young core of well regarded prospects, those went to Tampa Bay so they could make the playoffs...once.

There are sound elements to want to duplicate - building an offensive core around your young prospects as well as building a great bullpen with multiple flamethrowing power arms but the exact execution of their plan was botched. Dayton Moore was on the hot seat, panicked and made a splash to save his job. It worked, but the long term cost may have done more harm than good.

So no, I don't want to the Twins to emulate the Royals. I want the Twins to see the Royals hurt a long, patient rebuild by going big a bit too soon. Hopefully the Twins learn from the Royals and manage to pull off their rebuild a bit more efficiently.

I think the Royals this year are a bit better than just Shields. He may walk after this year, but I don't think they are going to lose that much talent compared to what they currently have.

The Royals probably have a shorter shopping list than most of the AL Central.

The Tigers need to re-build their bullpen (again) and will probably need to replace Scherzer and V-Mart;

Cleveland needs major offensive and defensive upgrades in the infield, and RF, and DH.

The Sox are a mess.

The Twins are still a mess.

The Royals? They probably will need to replace James Shields and find a bench bat or two with Willingham and Ibanez likely retiring.

Short term moves are used to go from a playoff team to a world series team.

 

Not from a below 500 club to a wild card team like KC did.

 

Unless the Twins sign Lester or another ace, the pitching staff will be in transition in 2015 but the staff should be good for 5-6 years after that.

Couldn't say it any better.

Another nit to pick with the original article is four consecutive rebuilding years. I was thinking playoffs in the spring of 2011, as were most of us. Everyone got hurt, those that didn't get injured didn't perform and the season was a spectacular failure, but not a rebuilding year.

 

Agree - 2011 was a face plant, 2012 and 2013 were denial.  2014 the Twins finally embraced the rebuild, and even then is was somewhat reluctantly.

So we've only really been rebuilding for a year or so.

Wil Myers had an OPS of .614 this year and a fWAR of -.1.  Even if you only count the pre-injury numbers and assume his wrist injury and layoff caused an end of year slump he had an OPS of .666.  The fact is that prospect often don't work out and that hoarding them isn't always the right tactic.  

I'd float Dozier and Plouffe for trade.  Actually, anyone on the current roster with a few exceptions.  The Twins [and fans] need to see the true value of what we have.  Which ain't much.  When you tout a guy with .240 as your pick for next years advertising poster, there's obviously a problem with perception.  Adding a little here, a little there won't help this team.  Go all in with the kids.  I'd rather fail on hope than no hope.

Hicks is this poster child for trading when his value is considered high in the minor leagues.