Roki Sasaki, Veteran Trades, and Other Big Questions Facing the Twins This Offseason

Roki Sasaki is an extreme long odd worth any or all of the time invested. Can't get him if he doesn't receive notice of our interest. This is just hope, pure hope and luck.

Pete Alonso is a true slugger that any team would love to slot into the middle of a lineup. However, in fact, his market is super restricted. He has already been bypassed by most of the few clubs whose markets allow for a big contract for his type of player. Alonso is not out of an owner imposed limit, he is out of a market size limit. Teams in mid markets won't have any interest unless a deal is very creative. Likely, Alonso resigns with the Mets or goes to the Angels; limited choice.

The Twins will not have any difficulty trading either Chris Paddack and/or Willi Castro. Both have value to a number of clubs. Perhaps the roster payroll allows the Twins to retain both with Paddack in a swing role and Castro as a utility player. Christian Vazquez requires a replacement not currently within the organization, so it is a little less likely that he is moved in a deal, but certainly the Twins will be open to what another team has in mind.

The Twins have talent. The opportunity still exists for several trades if the front office feels a need to upgrade the talent on the roster. I'm sure there are teams willing to discuss transactions with the Twins. The question is whether the front office feels positive about the ideas and exchanges discussed. Perhaps many teams, including the Twins, are waiting out a decision from Roki Sasaki.

15 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Doogie mentioned yesterday the Twins really like Ryan Mountcastle. He would be really good for this lineup. 
Moves will be made in the next 6 weeks. Multiple. Should be interesting

Baltimore makes for an interesting but somewhat shaky trading partner. The Orioles may have an eye on Pablo Lopez. They have been very reticent at giving up either Sam Basallo and/or Coby Mayo in trades. These guys are both highly regarded but also potential busts due to K-rates and positional questions. I prefer Lopez but sometimes gambling works. No idea what the Twins would need to send for Mountcastle. The Orioles would likely want a starting pitcher.

I can see the Twins trading Paddack but don't expect to get much back for him. I can't see them trading Castro with his versatility and the number of injuries we seem to get every year. I would keep Vasquez unless we are overwhelmed with a deal. The talk of trading Lopez and/or Duran or Jax is just stupid for a team as thin as we are. I'd wait and see how the first part of the season goes before making any of those moves. There are a few sluggers out there still and secondary starters and relievers. I guess we'll see. Alonso is a good one but is a big hit or (mostly) miss in key situations which is why teams aren't paying the big bucks for him yet. Mountcastle would be a good fit. Despite what his agent says, I don't see Sasaki signing with the Twins. And what about Santander who nobody mentions? So we give up a draft choice. Who cares?

Happy New Year.

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Did the Twins meet with Roki before he went back to Japan? Has it come out that he's had a zoom call with them since being back in Japan? Are there rumors they're scheduled to meet with him upon his return from Japan? Why exactly should we remain hopeful the Twins could land Roki?

His agent's personal thoughts that Roki may want a "soft landing" in a smaller market were blown up immediately. He reportedly met with 7 teams while he was here (Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Rangers, Padres), none of which share a whole lot in common with the Twins. 

Are there reports out there about the Twins "making a serious push?" I don't recall seeing them connected to him in any way besides them saying they're interested and were putting together a presentation for him. Like at least 19 other teams did. Until the Twins get an actual meeting with Roki Sasaki there shouldn't be any hope or excitement for their chances because they don't have any chance. They very well may get a meeting, but I haven't seen any talk of it at all so I'm very confused why the news of him meeting with 7 teams that spend at a whole different level than the Twins or have one of his closest friends on the team (Darvish on the Padres) should give Twins fans hope that he's calling Target Field home in 2025.

I don't think the Twins pursuit of Sasaki is too much different than buying a lottery ticket. They spent a little time to show interest (bought a ticket) and now hope that luck works its magic. One should not expect Sasaki in the organization, but it can't hurt to minimally wish and hope. The market on trades may be held up until Sasaki makes his decision. Hard to read what happens next across MLB much less for the Twins.

If I’m Roki Sasaki I look T the Twins and I see they have acquired Mickey Gasper as their main off season acquisition. why wouldn’t he have us at the top of his list?

Some teams with only an inkling that Sasaki would make that jump, were quick to reach out to Sasaki. That makes a difference to see the teams that had interest in him, to let him know he's wanted. MN has a lot to offer Sasaki. This isn't a Sasaki sweepstake, it's a beauty contest with teams to see which team will be the most attractive to Sasaki. It's Falvey job to convey to Sasaki that we really want him & highlight to him all the good qualities of the Twins & how we can make him into the best SP of all time & a good person at the same time. Chpetit19 has a heartbeat for where Falvey is at, it seems that we shouldn't get our hopes too high. But I'll still hope against hope.

We're not getting Roki, as awesome as that would be. Twins need to trade Paddack to open up a little wiggle room money and then trade for a legit major league first baseman. I'd go for Diaz, Bohm or MountCastle. I do like Miranda's bat, but not as our starting 1b. I think he's better as the first man up as injury replacement for Lewis. We also need a good lefty for our pen. Something needs to be done, and soon.

I'm with chpettit19 on his Sasaki take.  What I was hoping to read in this article was something deeper than the "we have interest" that Falvey uttered some time ago.  Have we actually met with him???  I understand that we have some positives going for us. 

#1  a soft media with minimal acrimony or criticism. 

#2  an organization that has made pitchers BETTER. 

#3  despite the late season collapse, the Twins have a talented roster that, with a couple of adjustments could be even stronger. 

#4  New Ownership is on the way.  While it is an unknown at this time, the current ownership would not have inspired Sasaki to cast his lot with us.  But if, as it's been mentioned, Sasaki is taking a longer term view, the prospect of new and a much more proactive ownership would bode well. 

I agree with tony&rodney that any BIG moves will come after the Sasaki sweepstakes are completed.  Whoever WINS the Sasaki sweepstakes will be in a much stronger position.  Everybody who doesn't will need to re-assess. 

For example, if the Twins won the Sasaki sweepstakes, they could roll with a rotation that would be Lopez, Sasaki, Ryan, Ober, SWR & Festa.  I'm going with a 6 man rotation because that's what Sasaki is probably accustomed to.  SWR & Festa would be just entering their 2nd seasons.  It's arguable that one or both could use a little more time in St. Paul, but Sasaki, while technically a rookie, is no rookie.  That would be a heck of a rotation.

But it could also open a trade possibility.  Like Lopez (47.8 BBTV), Kaelen Culpepper 8.2 and Julien 16.5 (64.3 total value) to the Orioles for Jackson Holliday 56.6 and Ryan Mountcastle 8.7 (65.3 total value).  Anyone who doesn't think Baltimore would do this doesn't realize how desperate their rotation looks without Burnes and how many prospects they have screaming for an opportunity.  Holliday was the #1 prospect in baseball a year ago but Gunnar Henderson has been Rookie of the Year and an All Star at SS in his first 2 seasons.  And the Orioles have Westburg, Mayo, Bassalo and others as IF prospects.  Holiday allows the Twins to play him at 2B for a couple years and then move him to SS when Correa moves to 3B.

Doc Gast had posted a trade to BBTV on Dec. 30th that was interesting.  He traded Eddie Julien (16.5) and Billy Amick (7.0) to the Brewers for 21 year old catching prospect Jeferson Quero (22.7).  I like that deal and the Brewers could be shuffling their IF with Willie Adames no longer their SS.

I won't pay BBTV for the privilege to post trades anymore, but from what I've been able to discern from player values in other suggested trades the Twins could do a couple deals that would look like this:

Ryan Mountcastle has an 8.7 value.  If you didn't want him as part of a huge trade involving Lopez and Holliday you could trade a AA/AAA pitcher to Baltimore, OR, given their glaring rotational needs offer Paddack (3.7 BBTV) straight up with the Orioles taking on all $7.5 million of Paddack if we take the entire $6 million for Mountcastle.  That trade fills an acute need for each team.

You want a younger 1B with BIG offensive potential but so-so defense?  Eddie Julien (16.5) and Zebby Matthews (16.0) 32.5 total to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas (29.9) Ceddane Rafaela (-- 5.1) and Dave Sandlin a 23 year old SP (5.2) total value 30.0.  Rafaela has a negative 5.1 value because the Red Sox signed him to an 8 year, $50 million dollar contract that runs thru 2032 with a club option.  He swings and misses too much and doesn't walk enough, but he's actually a steal at that contract.  He's tremendous defensively at both SS and CF and he's already a strong candidate for 20 HR/20 SB seasons.  His defense, at 2 crucial positions for the Twins with the Correa and Buxton health risks going forward would be a key for the Twins.  It could also be a pre-cursor to another trade...

Jhoan Duran (24.7) and Willi Castro (value unknown)  to the Dodgers for catching prospect Dalton Rushing 36.3 and oft injured but HIGH potential RHP Dustin May (value unknown).  Without knowing the values of Castro and May it's hard to quantify this trade.  But May could be a SP or could replace Duran as closer or, be the 8th inning guy if Jax becomes the closer.  Castro is expendable due to the acquisition of Rafaela who is far superior to Castro at SS and CF.  Rafalea can also play 2B.  

It's fun to speculate on all of this, but I agree that none of this takes place unless AFTER the Sasaki sweepstakes is decided.  If the Twins get him, they will have a stud, All Star Ace for years and either just add him to an already strong rotation.  Or this could open up trade possibilities that otherwise wouldn't have been considered.  

Has there been anything reported about the Twins being an option for Roki?  A whiff, a puff of smoke, an off-hand comment from Falvey's second cousin, twice removed... anything?  If not, why put him in the same article as the rest of these questions.  Everything else is a true question this team faces, Roki is a beyond a lottery ticket.

I am watching to see if they dismantle this team. A healthy SP trio of Lopez/Ryan/Ober will give them at least a puncher's chance at the offseason.  Trading one of these 3 says a lot about the future, regardless of what they get in return.

11 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Doc Gast had posted a trade to BBTV on Dec. 30th that was interesting.  He traded Eddie Julien (16.5) and Billy Amick (7.0) to the Brewers for 21 year old catching prospect Jeferson Quero (22.7).  I like that deal and the Brewers could be shuffling their IF with Willie Adames no longer their SS.

The Brewers aren't looking for prospects like Amick except as filler. Jeferson Quero is a concern due to his shoulder surgery. He projects as a serious top flight defensive catcher almost out of the box with an unknown hit tool. I have been high on him for. couple of years. As such, I'm willing to trade Brooks Lee for Quero. I do not think either Falvey or Twins Daily likes that idea.

55 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'm with chpettit19 on his Sasaki take.  What I was hoping to read in this article was something deeper than the "we have interest" that Falvey uttered some time ago.  Have we actually met with him???  I understand that we have some positives going for us. 

#1  a soft media with minimal acrimony or criticism. 

#2  an organization that has made pitchers BETTER. 

#3  despite the late season collapse, the Twins have a talented roster that, with a couple of adjustments could be even stronger. 

#4  New Ownership is on the way.  While it is an unknown at this time, the current ownership would not have inspired Sasaki to cast his lot with us.  But if, as it's been mentioned, Sasaki is taking a longer term view, the prospect of new and a much more proactive ownership would bode well. 

I agree with tony&rodney that any BIG moves will come after the Sasaki sweepstakes are completed.  Whoever WINS the Sasaki sweepstakes will be in a much stronger position.  Everybody who doesn't will need to re-assess. 

For example, if the Twins won the Sasaki sweepstakes, they could roll with a rotation that would be Lopez, Sasaki, Ryan, Ober, SWR & Festa.  I'm going with a 6 man rotation because that's what Sasaki is probably accustomed to.  SWR & Festa would be just entering their 2nd seasons.  It's arguable that one or both could use a little more time in St. Paul, but Sasaki, while technically a rookie, is no rookie.  That would be a heck of a rotation.

But it could also open a trade possibility.  Like Lopez (47.8 BBTV), Kaelen Culpepper 8.2 and Julien 16.5 (64.3 total value) to the Orioles for Jackson Holliday 56.6 and Ryan Mountcastle 8.7 (65.3 total value).  Anyone who doesn't think Baltimore would do this doesn't realize how desperate their rotation looks without Burnes and how many prospects they have screaming for an opportunity.  Holliday was the #1 prospect in baseball a year ago but Gunnar Henderson has been Rookie of the Year and an All Star at SS in his first 2 seasons.  And the Orioles have Westburg, Mayo, Bassalo and others as IF prospects.  Holiday allows the Twins to play him at 2B for a couple years and then move him to SS when Correa moves to 3B.

Doc Gast had posted a trade to BBTV on Dec. 30th that was interesting.  He traded Eddie Julien (16.5) and Billy Amick (7.0) to the Brewers for 21 year old catching prospect Jeferson Quero (22.7).  I like that deal and the Brewers could be shuffling their IF with Willie Adames no longer their SS.

I won't pay BBTV for the privilege to post trades anymore, but from what I've been able to discern from player values in other suggested trades the Twins could do a couple deals that would look like this:

Ryan Mountcastle has an 8.7 value.  If you didn't want him as part of a huge trade involving Lopez and Holliday you could trade a AA/AAA pitcher to Baltimore, OR, given their glaring rotational needs offer Paddack (3.7 BBTV) straight up with the Orioles taking on all $7.5 million of Paddack if we take the entire $6 million for Mountcastle.  That trade fills an acute need for each team.

You want a younger 1B with BIG offensive potential but so-so defense?  Eddie Julien (16.5) and Zebby Matthews (16.0) 32.5 total to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas (29.9) Ceddane Rafaela (-- 5.1) and Dave Sandlin a 23 year old SP (5.2) total value 30.0.  Rafaela has a negative 5.1 value because the Red Sox signed him to an 8 year, $50 million dollar contract that runs thru 2032 with a club option.  He swings and misses too much and doesn't walk enough, but he's actually a steal at that contract.  He's tremendous defensively at both SS and CF and he's already a strong candidate for 20 HR/20 SB seasons.  His defense, at 2 crucial positions for the Twins with the Correa and Buxton health risks going forward would be a key for the Twins.  It could also be a pre-cursor to another trade...

Jhoan Duran (24.7) and Willi Castro (value unknown)  to the Dodgers for catching prospect Dalton Rushing 36.3 and oft injured but HIGH potential RHP Dustin May (value unknown).  Without knowing the values of Castro and May it's hard to quantify this trade.  But May could be a SP or could replace Duran as closer or, be the 8th inning guy if Jax becomes the closer.  Castro is expendable due to the acquisition of Rafaela who is far superior to Castro at SS and CF.  Rafalea can also play 2B.  

It's fun to speculate on all of this, but I agree that none of this takes place unless AFTER the Sasaki sweepstakes is decided.  If the Twins get him, they will have a stud, All Star Ace for years and either just add him to an already strong rotation.  Or this could open up trade possibilities that otherwise wouldn't have been considered.  

1yr of May at 6.8 + Rushing 36.3= 43.1             Duran 24.7 + Castro 8.9 = 33.6   Sorry TopGun Castros value has dropped a lot at BTV since all the trade talk. But Rushing is a great target.

Thanks Doc !  It looks like I'd have to drop Dustin May from that trade to have a chance.  I'm not sure how the Dodgers feel about May.  He's kind of their Matt Canterino except he's actually pitched in the major leagues and was VERY IMPRESSIVE while he was healthy.  

But this information and example shows how expensive Dalton Rushing would be.  You've been on the BBTV's web site, so you've probably seen a number of trades where the White Sox trade newly acquired catching prospect Kyle Teel away.  Teel's value is 32.  The Twins could get him for Julien (16.5) and Zebby Matthews (16.0).  I'd do that in a heartbeat.  We have Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis to play 2B/3B and Festa, SWR and possibly Andrew Morris.  We are bereft of catching prospects who could help in 2025.  Teel will play this year in MLB.

I'm not sure how willing the White Sox are to trade him, but it seems like White Sox fans are initiating some of the deals.  The White Sox would be focused on prospects or MLB ready prospects.  Julien and Matthews fit the bill.  

When it comes to Rushing, the Dodgers are in a posture to defend their World Series Championship.  They would want key contributors like Duran and Castro (and Dustin May if they didn't have to give him up) as part of any deal.  "Prospects" won't cut it for the Dodgers.

I'd much prefer Teel or Rushing.  Teel's defense is superior and while Rushing's offense is better, Teel seems like a Jason Varitek type.  Varitek couldn't hit like Mike Piazza, but he was clearly a better defensive catcher.  I'd much prefer to acquire someone like Teel or Quero for "prospects" rather than give up a Duran or Castro.  

A lot to talk about so I'll just limit this to Mountcastle. IMO I'd take Miranda over Mountcastle because both are simular but Miranda has a better bat & at 1B that's what we want. 3B is tough on Miranda's arm & should be kept at 1B. If we pick up Mountcastle, he'd be the mainstay at 1B. It is another wasted year for Miranda to become the 1Bman we want & need, stalling his value to the team. If Miranda played last year primarily at 1B his value & WAR would be much higher now. If we trade Miranda now for example we'd be selling very low on him. Mountcastle is pretty much a finished product at 1B with 2yrs of control. IMO Miranda has much more upside & we have 4 more years to work with him. I'd rather invest in Miranda at 4 yrs. than Mountcastle's 2 with 2 more years leaving Miranda undeveloped at 1B & more apt to get reinjured at 3B keeping his value lower than what it should be

44 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Thanks Doc !  It looks like I'd have to drop Dustin May from that trade to have a chance.  I'm not sure how the Dodgers feel about May.  He's kind of their Matt Canterino except he's actually pitched in the major leagues and was VERY IMPRESSIVE while he was healthy.  

But this information and example shows how expensive Dalton Rushing would be.  You've been on the BBTV's web site, so you've probably seen a number of trades where the White Sox trade newly acquired catching prospect Kyle Teel away.  Teel's value is 32.  The Twins could get him for Julien (16.5) and Zebby Matthews (16.0).  I'd do that in a heartbeat.  We have Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis to play 2B/3B and Festa, SWR and possibly Andrew Morris.  We are bereft of catching prospects who could help in 2025.  Teel will play this year in MLB.

I'm not sure how willing the White Sox are to trade him, but it seems like White Sox fans are initiating some of the deals.  The White Sox would be focused on prospects or MLB ready prospects.  Julien and Matthews fit the bill.  

When it comes to Rushing, the Dodgers are in a posture to defend their World Series Championship.  They would want key contributors like Duran and Castro (and Dustin May if they didn't have to give him up) as part of any deal.  "Prospects" won't cut it for the Dodgers.

I'd much prefer Teel or Rushing.  Teel's defense is superior and while Rushing's offense is better, Teel seems like a Jason Varitek type.  Varitek couldn't hit like Mike Piazza, but he was clearly a better defensive catcher.  I'd much prefer to acquire someone like Teel or Quero for "prospects" rather than give up a Duran or Castro.  

There's a lot of very good young promising MLB-Ready catchers out there. Teel is my favorite because of his defense and he's also a very good hitter who hits the ball hard & doesn't K very often & IMO the HRs will come, Rushing & Jefferson Quero (MIL) are next both are great. The list goes on Harry Ford (SEA), Edgar Quero (CWS) the most underrated is (SH) Drew Romo (CO) a very good defensive catcher who once given the opportunity can hit, his power will eventually come. (SH) Cole Carrigg (CO) has been put on the shelf for a while but IMO has the greatest potential of becoming an elite catcher. I get very excited at the possibility of trading for at least one of these catchers & see the need for 2. I have put in a lot of reasonable trade offers on many different catchers with good responses.