Report From The Fort: Jake Odorizzi Is Better Than You Think

“Below average,” replies Odorizzi. “I built a rapport of being better than that. I guess it comes with the territory. I guess when you decline a little bit, people just automatically say it’s a horrible year.”

It was a decline from the 3.69 ERA the year before, which was a decline from the 3.35 ERA in 2015. But his 3.71 ERA over that stretch would be a welcome addition to the Twins. So would the 500.1 innings which would make him one of the most durable starters on the staff.

Getting away from just ERA, some of his other numbers were more alarming. His walk rate climbed while his strikeout rate held steady. That 4.14 ERA is fortunate given those. So how would he explain his “below average” year?

“I pitched through a back strain for the majority of the year,” explains Odorizzi. “Then I took some time off in July. When I came back, my numbers were back to normal.”

He’s right. Odorizzi went on the disabled list July 26. He was back just two weeks later on August 9. His ERA before the move was 4.47. Afterward, his ERA was 3.51. His strikeout rate was up a bit, too. But the biggest improvement was in his weakest area: he gave up a lot fewer home runs.

That’s been a perceived weakness for the flyball-prone Odorizzi for the last two years. Even after the time on the DL, he gave up a home run about every seven innings. That’s about average for a major league pitcher last year. But before the injury, it was every four(!) at-bats. Odorizzi is convinced that the injury had him changing his mechanics and that was affecting the control of his fastball.

“My fastball location was way below what it normally is. Just part of the mechanics. I was trying to open up my front side earlier to take some pressure off [my back],” explains Odorizzi. “It was more of a side-to-side pitch and rotational instead of straight down through pitches. Usually my pitches are on target but miss up and down, but now they were missing left and right, and that lead to balls being left over the plate more often, which I’ve done in the past and it affects my home run rate. So I know exactly why stuff happened.”

Odorizzi says there shouldn’t be any carryover. He hasn’t had back injuries in the past, and this one was coupled with a strained hamstring on the same side, which may have been a contributing factor. This offseason he was far more careful with lifting that could affect his back, and took up Pilates regularly to work on his flexibility and core.

If he’s right, and Odorizzi is back to “normal” that’s very good news for Twins fans. Odorizzi’s career ERA is 3.83, which is the lowest of any probable starting pitcher in the Twins rotation. It certainly is a lot more promising than the tandem of Hector Santiago and Bartolo Colon who combined for a 5.39 ERA in the 29 starts they made last year. Even if Odorizzi duplicates his "bad" 2017, he represents a 20-run improvement over those two.

The Twins brain trust might not have been able to convince Yu Darvish to come to the Twins Cities, but the 27-year-old Odorizzi has the pedigree, the history and now hopefully the health to make a very positive impact on the Twins rotation.

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