Minnesota Twins Week in Review: St. Louis Blues

Weekly Snapshot: Thurs, 3/27 through Sun, 3/30
***
Record Last Week: 0-3 (Overall: 0-3)
Run Differential Last Week: -13 (Overall: -13)
Standing: T-4th Place in AL Central (2.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 1 | STL 5, MIN 3: Pablo Unsharp in Opener, Offense Stifled by Sonny

• López: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 R (2 ER); Bader: 2/4, HR, 2B

Game 2 | STL 5, MIN 1: Lineup Unable to Find Spark, Bullpen Struggles

• Twins 1-3 hitters: 0/12

Game 3 | STL 9, MIN 2: Shaky Ober Obliterated as Cards Complete Sweep

• Ober: 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 HR

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NEWS & NOTES

The Twins opened the season with four players on the injured list: Royce Lewis (hamstring), Brooks Lee (back), Michael Tonkin (shoulder) and Brock Stewart (hamstring). All were injured over the course of spring training. We don't have specific timelines on any of these sidelined players yet, but presumably we'll receive some updates when the team returns home on Thursday for their first series at Target Field.

HIGHLIGHTS

The most positive thing you can say about this opening series in St. Louis is that, at least on Thursday and Saturday, the Twins didn't look as bad as the results indicate. There were plenty of good at-bats and plenty of quality pitches thrown. It was one of those series where the ball always seemed to find grass for the opponent and never for the good guys. The Cardinals also, to their credit, played exceptionally well, repeatedly making big plays in the field and coming up clutch at the plate. 

But in terms of actual performance and output for Twins players, there weren't many high points over these three games. One of the few bright spots was Trevor Larnach, who appears ready to build on last year's success in his new apparent fixed role as cleanup hitter. The biggest factor in Larnach's 2024 breakthrough was a drastic reduction in strikeout rate; he showed an increased tendency to fight off breaking balls and go the other way with outside pitches. This adaptation was back on display in a series where he went 3-for-10 with a walk and just two strikeouts.

Newcomer and fellow left fielder Harrison Bader made a nice first impression on Opening Day, going 2-for-4 with a double and a two-run homer against the team that drafted him. His one swing accounted for a full third of Minnesota's total run production in the series. Bader started twice in left field in St. Louis series, pushing Larnach to DH. 

Willi Castro, fresh off being named Twins 2024 MVP at the Diamond Awards, definitely looked the part as the lineup's biggest standout. Starting all three games at second base, Castro flashed serious pop, with all four of his hits going for extra bases, including three doubles and a homer. That's a very welcome sight after his power vanished in the second half last year, when Castro's slugging percentage dropped from .420 before the break to .329 after.

LOWLIGHTS

The offense picked up where it left off following last year's season-ending collapse. They scored just six runs in 16 hits in 27 innings against the Cardinals, with far too many prolonged stretches of nothingness. And yeah, there were some good at-bats here and there, but there were also a lot of really poor ones. Honestly this series just felt like a continuation of last September: hitters going to the plate without much of an evident plan, failing to make in-game adjustments, and falling into bad habits. 

The shortcomings start at the top: Minnesota's No. 1 through 3 hitters – Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton – went a combined 2-for-34, making it almost impossible for the offense to catalyze. The total lack of production from this trio was a major drain on a unit that couldn't muster a fruitful rally all weekend. Minnesota posted one crooked number in the entire series, when they scored two (on Bader's homer) in the fifth inning of the opener. Otherwise they were scarcely able to generate a threat, and couldn't capitalize when they did, going 3-for-20 with runners in scoring position.

The lineup's struggles are what they are. While discouraging, it's only three games, and run-scoring was not expected to be this team's calling card. Instead, the pitching staff was to be the signature strength on this roster, led by a stable of accomplished veterans in the rotation and bullpen. Namely: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax. What most concerned me about the opening weekend is that none of those guys, with the exception of Ryan, looked much good at all.

López struggled on Opening Day, both with executing pitches and executing plays on the mound. He gave up eight hits in five innings, committing a costly balk and throwing error on the way an 0-1 record. At least his velocity and stuff looked relatively intact. 

The same could not be said for Ober, who once again delivered a dud in his first start of the season. This one, to my eye, was much more worrisome than what we saw from the righty last year in Kansas City. It didn't seem like the Cardinals necessary "had something on him," as Rocco Baldelli theorized with the Royals. Instead, Ober just had really underwhelming stuff and brutal command coming off a spring where his velocity was noticeably down. He surrendered two three-run homers in the game and both came on straight-up meatballs hung out over the plate. You don't need a lot of in-depth scouting research to crush those things. 

Hopefully Ober can flush this clunker and get on track in similar fashion to 2024. For what it's worth, Baldelli mentioned after the game that Ober had been dealing with a virus leading up the start, so perhaps that was a factor. 

On the relief front, Jax – who allowed just four home runs all of last season – gave one up to the second batter he faced in 2025, with Nolan Arenado taking him deep to pad a one-run lead in the eighth inning of the opener. Outside of that, Jax looked fine. More alarming was the performance of Jhoan Durán, who entered with a deficit on Saturday to get some work in and, well, got worked. 

Like Ober, Durán flashed diminished velocity in camp. He had a little of it back in his first regular-season outing, touching 101 a few times, but the big righty simply had no command, throwing 13 of 24 pitches for strikes. He allowed the first three batters to reach, two on free passes, before getting pulled from the game with just one out recorded. 

Look – all of these guys have made one appearance apiece. There's no reason for dramatic extrapolations. But the bottom line is that these five pitchers represent the biggest reason to believe in the 2025 Twins, from my view, and aside from Ryan they all have started their seasons on the wrong foot. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

How are the Twins going to get their offense going? You don't want to overreact to a three-game sample in the first series, but at the same time, it's difficult to have a lot of patience after what we saw from this (largely unchanged) offense at the end of last year.

There are a few small and straightforward adjustments I can see that might help give the lineup a jumpstart. The first and simplest would be getting Edouard Julien into the lineup against right-handers – potentially at second base with Castro moving to third and José Miranda to the bench. 

It's clear to me that the Twins don't have a great deal of faith in Miranda's bat based on the fact that he's been batting eighth in the lineup. The lack of faith is justified based on what we've seen: really low-quality at-bats characterized by the same overaggressiveness and persistently weak contact that defined his second-half slump in 2024. You've got to think Julien is a better option against right-handed pitching. If not, why in the world is Julien – who made zero plate appearances in the opening series – on the roster? (It does sound as though Julien like Ober has been dealing with an illness.)

The other opportunity that sticks out is to steer away from using Bader against right-handed pitchers. Bader's strong performance on Opening Day notwithstanding, this just isn't a good idea if the objective is to maximize run-scoring. The 30-year-old has a .672 career OPS against righties, yet drew starts against two of them in Minnesota's first three games.

In each of those cases, the decision was understandable – the Twins wanted to showcase their biggest offseason acquisition on Opening Day, and Sunday's starter Andre Pallante has extreme reverse splits. But if this becomes a pattern, while the offense continues to sputter, it's going to turn into a point of contention. While I recognize the value of having Bader's glove in the outfield alongside Buxton, putting him into your starting lineup against a right-hander means sacrificing the ability to use a bat-first lefty swinger like Julien or Mickey Gasper. 

LOOKING AHEAD

This season has started in exactly the way the Twins needed it NOT to, as a franchise. They're already clearly having a hard time igniting fan interest, which I suspect will be reflected by the crowd size and energy for Thursday's home opener. They can't afford to dig a deep early hole. These boys need to get going, and in a hurry. A three-game showdown against the lowly White Sox in Chicago, ahead of, will provide an opportunity to regain some composure before the Twins welcome Houston to Target Field.

MONDAY, MARCH 31: TWINS @ WHITE SOX: RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Martin Perez
TUESDAY, APRIL 1: TWINS @ WHITE SOX — RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Shane Smith
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2: TWINS @ WHITE SOX — RHP Pablo López v. RHP Sean Burke
THURSDAY, APRIL 3: ASTROS @ TWINS — RHP Hunter Brown v. RHP Joe Ryan
SATURDAY, APRIL 5: ASTROS @ TWINS — RHP Spencer Arrighetti v. RHP Bailey Ober
SUNDAY, APRIL 6: ASTROS @ TWINS — RHP Ronel Blanco v. RHP Chris Paddack