Louie Varland is Cleared For Takeoff, Poised for Full Starting Role

Louie Varland has been here before. Last season, the electric righthander wasn’t viewed as worthy of one of the five slots in the Opening Day rotation, but he found himself starting a bundle of games throughout the year, and then dominated in a cameo in the bullpen at the end of the season.

But now, he’s been granted an extended runway in the major-league rotation to start the year, and there’s reason to believe this time could be different for North St. Paul’s native son.

The Opportunity
Varland went into this offseason with as much clarity as the rest of us when it came to his role with the club in 2024. Was he going to stay in the big league bullpen after a masterful September and October stretch as a reliever? Would he have to spend some more time in the Triple-A rotation to begin the season? 

Varland didn’t know how the club’s plans would shake out, but he said all the right things in the meantime. 

“I’m going to pitch to the best of my ability, in either role,” Varland said in front of a few hundred beer-soaked patrons and a handful of tipsy Twins Daily writers at the annual Winter Meltdown in January. “Come Spring Training, I’m going to do my best to compete for a starting role. I want to make the decision on the coaches as hard as possible.”

As luck would have it, the decision to have Varland take hold of a spot in the Twins’ rotation out of spring training is looking like a rather easy call. Anthony DeSclafani, who was already looking like a long shot to join the starting five at any point in the first few weeks of the season, left his minor-league outing with more elbow discomfort and will seek the opinion of Dr. Keith Meister, who has performed Tommy John surgery on a handful of MLB stars in recent years. 

Now, instead of being tasked with fill-in duties until the club’s veteran acquisition returns to action, Varland has as open of a runway as he could hope for. He shouldn’t have to worry about the ticking clock that leads to a trip back to CHS Field. A bad start on any given night won’t hold the same weight. He can fine-tune his offerings on a macro scale at the game’s highest level. And from there, Varland’s success can speak for itself. 

What’s different?
This isn’t the first time we’ve felt optimism for Varland as he got an opportunity with the big league rotation. I wrote about this being Louie’s time to shine in early May last year, and he went on to have a 5.72 ERA across his next seven starts before being sent back down to Triple-A. 
But this time can be different, because of what the 26-year-old developed as a reliever late last year, as well as what he’s been tinkering with in the offseason. These new weapons can elevate him to a solid mid-rotation arm, and their usage will be under a microscope in the early going. 

Firstly, a boost in velocity when he transitioned to a relief role helped raise Varland's fastball to new heights. While he sat at a comfortable 94-96 MPH level with his heater as a starter in the first half of 2023, that number rose to 97-98 MPH as a reliever. This spring, he's been up to 98 while working as a starter, but his average velocity is still right around 95.

However, the more enticing development from that switch occurred with his cutter, which became one of the best raw pitches in baseball in a short sample size of seven relief appearances last September. That cutter became uncrushable, as opponents only mustered a .118 batting average and failed to get a single extra-base hit off of it. It also missed bats at an exciting clip, with a 45.7% whiff rate, which was enough for Varland to make it one of his most trusted tools to finish off a hitter late in at-bats. Inside Edge pegged Varland as having the second-highest percentage of strikeouts coming on cutters (32.4%), trailing only Corbin Burnes (44%). That’s very good company, as Burnes is known to have arguably the best cutter in the game. 

The hope would be that Varland’s effective cutter can stay that way in the rotation, proving his success in the bullpen wasn’t solely because of his four-seamer getting a velocity boost. If he can keep missing bats with the cutter, he instantly becomes a vital piece to the Twins’ rotation puzzle. 

Besides trying to keep that promising whiff rate up, Varland is also working to develop his sinker to jam right-handed hitters. Righty opposing batters crushed 11 home runs off of him last year and tuned him up with a .275/.317/.526 slash line. Those numbers need to come down if Varland is to stick in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Using the cutter to get more swing-and-miss, and mixing in his sinker in hitter’s counts to avoid major damage should help his cause. 

Varland’s opportunity in the rotation is going to paint a pretty good picture of his future with the club. If he’s shaky for an extended period, some more fine-tuning in the minor leagues could be on the table. If he takes off as a starting pitcher with a cutter that is anywhere near as nasty as it was out of the bullpen and a tinkered sinker to boot, he could be a potential building block as a mid-rotation arm with multiple years of club control. Whatever happens from here, it’s going to start on the extended runway that Varland has been granted.

What do you think? What are some realistic expectations for Louie Varland as a starting pitcher? Let us know what you think in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet.