Jordan Balazovic’s DFA Points to Pitching Development Complexities

Pitchers are always the hardest to project, and to predict long term success. Some pitchers will be one of best in league for several seasons then after one off-season they become one of the worst.  Then some will go the other way, or the flip happens in the season too. 

This can happen to hitters too, but hitters generally have a bell curve to their career numbers, and rarely have a fall off the cliff.  Pitchers, generally have a cliff they fall off, except for HOF type guys. Not saying Balazovic is done for a MLB career, but he fell off a cliff at a young age, before MLB debut, and he needs to make some changes quickly.  

This is also why you can never have too much pitching because year to year you never know what you will get. 

Some guys have the talent and the inner drive to succeed while even fewer have the drive to be the greatest. Some guys have all the talent in the world and don’t have that inner drive.  It seems like our FO is getting better at finding the right guys but it’s a never ending job of over thinking. JB is going to get his shot somewhere if he focuses on whats right. 

Duran's case is a little bit different; he didn't exactly flunk out as a starter (4 starts in AAA in an injury-filled season isn't enough for me) and he basically never got his AA development season in 2020 as a starter at all because of the pandemic. So the team just made the call that his lightning bolt of an arm played up immediately as a reliever and might also keep him healthy. We'll never really know if he could have still made it as a starter.

I think missing out on a key developmental year in 2020 hurt Balazovic considerably. (as I recall, he scrapped the changeup in 2021 and started working on a split in AA; starting that process sooner would almost certainly have helped) The injury year in 2022 set him back significantly as well. And this is where drafting teenage pitchers starts getting to be a problem: he's now spent 7 seasons in our system, has to be on the 40-man or possibly get snapped up by someone else, but he's still not ready. You end up having to make the decision on those young pitchers faster than maybe you want to, but in this case you had a lost development year on top of it.

The missing 2020 minor league season messed up some careers, and I think Balazovic's was one of them.

I'm just curious how we can claim to have developed Joe Ryan? He came up to the ML with the Twins but did we develop him? Varland, we still don't know whether he'd be an SP or RP at this point either. I'm not sure  if at just under 100 IP if he's developed or not. Ober imo is very much a success story at this point.

25 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Balazovic's DFA refects his immaturity and inability to adapt.

How does one come to this conclusion? 

A DFA is a choice of the potential production of one player over another; there are 40 positions.

There doesn’t have to be a reason per se or fault assigned. Prospects fail. Frequently. At all levels. Until they are actually performing well in the show it’s always wise to withhold judgement. It’s human nature to get excited about prospects but most of that excitement is usually pre-mature. 

2 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I'm just curious how we can claim to have developed Joe Ryan? He came up to the ML with the Twins but did we develop him? Varland, we still don't know whether he'd be an SP or RP at this point either. I'm not sure  if at just under 100 IP if he's developed or not. Ober imo is very much a success story at this point.

No we didn't develop him but who cares.   Getting a SP like Ryan for a rental is an incredible boost to the team for basically free.

Baseball is a tough racket. Balazovic has undoubtedly put in plenty of work to get to where he is at. He may still find his place among the best of the best. The Twins couldn't get him ready in time and now will most likely lose him. Them's the breaks. 

Baseball is definitely  a great game but there are alot of very good players trying to fulfill their dreams ...

Players have usually 4 steps to move up and develop  , A ball to AAA  and then possibly the majors ...

Balazovic has had some good seasons in the minors to create excitement up until his debut in AAA  , the 2020  missed season of development was costly I'm sure then moved up to AAA  in 2022 and 2023 didn't go good in 2022 and was better in 2023 , Balazovic  made it to the show , did he really deserve it with the 2023 numbers at AAA  ...

I'm sure he lost confidence  on the way , another prospect that will have to figure it out with another team ...

17 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

One last go at this.  Here's the Balazovic evidence from one year ago:

Balazovic:  “I went out, it was our last off day before spring training, and then the next thing I know, I got hit,” Balazovic said of the punch to his face that required surgery and an overnight hospital stay. “There wasn’t really an altercation. I didn’t say anything to the guy. I don’t know the guy. And I ended up getting hit twice. They’re looking for him and that’s all I can say.”  And later:  “I didn’t see it coming,” Balazovic said. “I wasn’t paying attention. I was walking, and the next thing I know, I got hit. Like I said, I don’t know who the person is. Never spoke a word to the person. I can’t say a whole lot on it, but it’s a pretty s—– situation.”

Possible?  Sure.  Plausible?  Nope.  Here's Rocco, from the implausible camp: “You can read into this and say whatever you guys want to say: It’s disappointing. Maybe that’s actually better than me actually trying to put words to it."  I've never met Rocco either, but it's clear he's not a believer.

I have met Falvey, in a group tour at the stadium.  Shook hands, small talk in a group and a wave good-bye.  I can argue with his FO decisions, but he struck me as a button-down organization-first guy.  Here's Falvey one year ago: “We talk to all of our guys about some of the situations that lead to outcomes off the field that get you in some trouble. We all have to be aware that the decisions we make, where we go, what we do at different times can have ramifications, and I think we just want to make sure here that we are being clear that we need to prioritize baseball and what’s going on going forward. That’s the message that we collectively delivered in this case.”  Pretty clear that Falvey would prefer players in bed reviewing the first day's schedule rather than out sampling all that Ft. Myers has to offer after twilight.

Here's Falvey yesterday:  "Jordan obviously has had some ups and downs along the way. Has been on a good track at times and then has struggled at different times. That doesn't mean that there isn't a great future ahead for him and you never know how this shakes out. Ultimately [we] still really think highly of Jordan's mix and things that he can continue to do but at this time, it didn't fit as well on our 40-man."

The FO signs Jackson same day they cut Balazovic, mid-30s journeyman who's touted as a character guy.  They keep Farmer, also mid-30s, pricey, but widely touted as a character guy.  The FO promotes Wallner, Julien and Lewis into significant playing time and cite their character and work ethic.  They cite Jeffers work ethic and character developing behind the plate and as a hitter.  But, they cut Balazovic, also highly-ranked, after he spent a couple months with the team with mixed results.  I think it's pretty clear character and maturity count with this FO.  There's enough evidence out there not to be confused about why the FO cut Balazovic.  There's a road back to the big club for Balazovic, but he needs to grow up as well as refine his pitching approach.

 

 

Long post, nothing in it that anyone who follows the Twins didn't already know, and zero evidence. Perhaps someone will have direct evidence of a reason that Balazovic got popped. Until then, he didn't do anything except exist. Thousands of people are attacked and killed every week just for existing, including infants. S**t happens and bad people do bad things just for fun. 

Balazovic was DFA'ed because the Twins felt that he would not offer as much production as another guy. Trevor Larnach is a great guy. Don't expect him to bat fourth and get 600 PA. Going further, if Trevor Bauer was as good as Gerritt Cole he would be signed already. There are a dozen players from where he played last year who are as good. Baseball is a cut-throat business.

It ain’t sex that’s killing these guys it’s staying up all night looking for it. 
 

Casey Stengel

19 minutes ago, Danchat said:

While true, it seems like hitting prospects pan out at a much higher rate than pitching prospects, at least from watching years of the Twins organization churn out players.

That’s not my perception but it would be interesting to see some research on it. 

9 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I'm just curious how we can claim to have developed Joe Ryan? He came up to the ML with the Twins but did we develop him? Varland, we still don't know whether he'd be an SP or RP at this point either. I'm not sure  if at just under 100 IP if he's developed or not. Ober imo is very much a success story at this point.

I don't agree with this take.  Development doesn't just magically stop at the MLB level, that is just the point where players can START to get MLB hitters out consistently.  They have developed Joe Ryan considerably over his career.  They developed Lopez plenty last year.  A true pitching pipeline has a strong development process in place at the major league level.  

It just goes to show that most of the hype we read about concerning " prospects"  is just that:  hype.  And I find it strange, almost amusing, that people criticize other people for their assessment that JB was somehow immature.  People criticize the comment with well have you ever met him?  I'm sure not.  Just the same as the person's that criticize that person who critiqued his maturity level.  Had they ever met JB either?  Likely not.  Anyway good luck JB.  Who knows he may clear waivers and wind up in st paul.