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  • Joe Mauer’s Cooperstown Case: Examining the 2024 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot


    Cody Christie

    Joe Mauer is a newcomer on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot that was announced on Monday. The hometown hero had detractors during his illustrious career. Let’s dive into the ballot and take a look at his candidacy.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

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    On Monday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame announced the candidates for the 2024 ballot, which includes 12 newcomers and 14 holdovers from last season. Twins legend Joe Mauer is among a strong rookie group on the ballot, including Adrian Beltre, Chase Utley, and David Wright. Beltre is a lock to be elected on the first ballot, while Mauer and Utley also have strong cases to join him in Cooperstown. Here’s a look at Mauer’s candidacy and how the rest of the ballot impacts his election chances. 

    Mauer’s Cooperstown Case
    Mauer played his entire 15-year career for his hometown team after the Twins drafted him with the first overall pick in the 2001 MLB Draft. For his career, he hit .306/.388/.439 (.827) with a 124 OPS+ on his way to winning three batting titles and five Silver Sluggers. He was the first American League catcher to win a batting title and the only one to win three batting titles. Defensively, he won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2008-10 and was elected to six All-Star Games. 

    His 2009 MVP season is arguably the best offensive season from a catcher in baseball history. He missed the season’s first month with a back injury but quickly made his presence felt with a home run in his first game back. Mauer finished the season hitting .365/.444/.587 (1.031) with a 171 OPS+. He set a major league record for highest batting average by a catcher and became the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade. Keizo Konishi of Kyodo News, a member of Seattle’s BBWAA chapter, gave Miguel Cabrera a first-place vote, which was all that kept Mauer from being a unanimous selection. 

    Catcher is an underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame, which makes Mauer’s candidacy even more interesting. JAWS is a system to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness by averaging their career WAR with their 7-year peak WAR. Using JAWS, Mauer is the seventh-best catcher in MLB history, with every catcher ahead of him already elected to the Hall of Fame. Mauer is one of the best catchers of all time, and the only question is whether or not he will be elected on his first ballot. 

    Breaking Down the Ballot
    Among the newcomers to the ballot, Beltre is one of the top all-around players in baseball history. He recorded 3,166 hits and 477 home runs and won five Gold Gloves, including two Platinum Gloves. There is a genuine possibility that he will become the second player in history to be elected unanimously (Mariano Rivera). JAWS ranks him as the fourth-best third baseman of all time behind Mike Schmidt, Eddie Matthews, and Wade Boggs. Utley’s case is more up in the air because his JAWS total ranks just outside the average of the Hall of Famers at second base. He was a six-time All-Star and won four consecutive Silver Slugger awards from 2006-09.

    There are also some likely inductees among the holdover candidates from last year’s ballot. Todd Helton received 72.2% of the vote last season, which fell just short of the 75% needed for induction. In his career, he was a .316 hitter with 2,519 hits and 369 home runs. According to JAWS, Helton ranks 15th among first basemen, which is ahead of the average of the 24 players at his position. Billy Wagner landed on 68.1% of the ballots in 2023 and is down to his final two ballot cycles to reach 75%. His 422 saves are sixth on the all-time list, and he was a seven-time All-Star. Relievers are among the least represented groups in the Hall, and Wagner ranks sixth all-time in JAWS. Every reliever ahead of him has already been elected to Cooperstown. 

    Prediction
    Beltre, Mauer, and Helton will be elected during the current voting cycle. Utley will do well in his first year on the ballot but will need multiple years to be inducted. Wagner will climb over 70% this year before being elected in 2025, his last year on the ballot. 

    The 2024 inductees will be named on January 23rd, 2024, on MLB.com and MLB Network. The induction ceremony will occur on July 21st, 2024, starting at 1:30 PM in Cooperstown, NY. Should Twins fans start planning their trip? Will Mauer be elected on the first ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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    Catchers are rarely elected on the first ballot. I believe only Ivan Rodriguez and Johnny Bench have been elected their first opportunity and Mauer is not as good as either of them. Yogi Berra didn't get elected his first ballot and neither did Carlton Fisk. The Hall of Fame has not inducted as many catchers as players at other positions. Mauer has a lot in common with Ted Simmons and it took Simmons nearly 30 years to get elected. Bill Freehan made 11 all-star teams and has a ring and he died without being elected.

    Quote

    Relievers are among the least represented groups in the Hall

    I feel like this quote was put into the article just to troll me. Relievers are pitchers and there are plenty of pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Most relievers who have been elected shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame because there are several starting pitchers better than them from the same era who haven't been elected. The only relievers who deserve induction based on the standards set for starting pitchers are Rivera, Wilhelm and perhaps Gossage. Eckersley deserves his honor because he was a damned good starting pitcher before he went to the bullpen. I'd much rather David Cone get honored than Billy Wagner because Cone was a much, much better pitcher. Relievers are the MOST overrepresented group in the Hall of Fame.

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    34 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    Mauer should be elected on the first ballot. I'm not sure that the writers understand how difficult being a catcher is and it is has only become more challenging in the 21st century due to the reams of information. 

    I think the national media and baseball writers from other parts of the country hold Joe Mauer in greater esteem than some of the locals here in the Twin Cities (Dan Barreiro, are your ears burning?) and even (sadly) quite a few Twins fans. I would not be shocked for Mauer to make it on the first ballot, especially since many of the "not on the first ballot" or "if Player X wasn't unanimous, Imma make sure no one is unanimous!" guys are either gone from the voting ranks, have changed their ways, or are simply minimized.

    Mauer was a truly great player, an elite catcher who could do damn near everything. His swing was spectacular, his eye at the plate impeccable, and he was a leader in the clubhouse as well. (I think his mentorship and leadership late in his career was notable, handing out game balls and so forth) I wish he'd gotten the Gold Glove he deserved at 1B; having that kind of additional singular trait (winning a Gold Glove at two very different positions) would have helped the narrative, but Mauer is worthy regardless.

    He's one of the best catchers of all-time, and was awesome to see him play his whole career as a Twin.

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    I sincerely believe he would be a first ballot HOF IF he didn't have injuries move him to 1st base.  But, with that said, nothing wrong with going in on the 2nd ballot either - as long as he gets in.  Glad he's voted on by national media and not only Twins writers and fans where he was never looked upon as favorably as he should have been.

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    12 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    If Joe Mauer played for the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.  there would be no discussion here.  He would be flying in on the first ballot.  The fact that this is even open for discussion continues to show how political the HOF is.

    Thurman Munson played for the Yankees and he didn't get elected. There is no pro-Yankee bias among recent players, in fact it may hurt players in the voting.

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    6 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    If Joe Mauer played for the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.  there would be no discussion here.  He would be flying in on the first ballot.  The fact that this is even open for discussion continues to show how political the HOF is.

    Completely agree with this. 

    A factor that makes his candidacy more complicated is that Mauer is definitely viewed in more favorable terms outside of the Twins market than within it (but without getting the big market bounce).  Here, he suffered from unrealistic expectations after he signed his long term contract, which hurts his image immensely, even if he didn't deserve it.  Somewhere along the way, some Twins fans decided that since he wasn't perfect and immune to injury, he wasn't any good.  That's unfortunate.  

    Bottom line, I think he gets in along with the aforementioned Beltre and Helton.  I personally think (and others don't, I get that) that the "first ballot hall of famer" designation is ridiculous.  Hall of Famer is Hall of Famer.  Period.  Either he deserves to be in or not, and Joe Mauer is a Hall of Famer.

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    7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    Thurman Munson played for the Yankees and he didn't get elected. There is no pro-Yankee bias among recent players, in fact it may hurt players in the voting.

    A player that died about 45 years ago is not "recent" in my book.

    Munson is probably one of the most egregious omissions from the HOF, but the scuttlebutt is that writers did not like him because of his personality.  That, and he never led the league in any offensive category, hurt him in a time when writers were more concerned about counting numbers.

    Coast bias is real.  That is why Derek Jeter is considered a god and George Brett is just really good. 

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    This year's returnees...

    It's a strong group of returnees, with Helton (6th year this year, 72.2% last year), Wagner (9th, 68.1%), Andruw Jones (7th, 58.1%), Sheffield (10th, 55.0) and Beltran (2nd, 46.5%). Of those...

    • I think Helton gets in -- virtually everyone who is that close makes it the next year.
    • Wagner will get close, if not in, for the same reason.
    • Jones has been climbing particularly quickly. He only had a little over 7 percent his first two years. I think he will take another big jump. 
    • Last-year guys almost always have a jump, so that will boost Sheffield, though I doubt he gets all the way to 75%.
    • I think Beltran will take a significant jump as he gets further away from the Astros scandal.

    Exiting from last year...

    • Only Rolen (76.3%), Kent (46.5%) and five single-vote guys left the ballot, so there were not a lot of votes freed up.
    • Virtually everyone who voted for Rolen (and more) will vote for Beltre.

    This year's newcomers...

    • Beltre is a given. If he gets even 90 percent, he will have used up the Rolen votes and a significant number of the Kent votes by himself. 
    • Besides Mauer, the rest of the newcomers are Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Victor Martinez, James Shields and Brandon Phillips. That's a much stronger group than last year's first-year guys (Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and then guys like John Lackey, Huston Street and R.A. Dickey).
    • For example, Lackey had the second-highest WAR of last year's newcomers, but nine of this year's first-year guys had a higher WAR than Lackey. 

    Conclusion...

    I think Mauer belongs in, but because of all those factors, I don't think there are enough votes available to get him in this year.

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    Last night on MLB Network, the talking heads compared the five-year peak of Mattingly with the five-year peak of Mauer and noted that Mattingly didn't get close at all. Then one said, "Mauer will get some points because he did this as a catcher." 

    "Get some points" because he was a catcher? That he did this as a catcher is his point!

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    Just my very humble opinion, but I have lost all respect for the BBWAA.  Morneau didn't even get a second year ballot?  So, although I  respect the HOF, I don't think it's as glorious as it should be.  And yes, I do think the flyover America teams are ignored to a degree vs. east coast and west coast teams.  Jim Kaat,  Bert Blyleven, Tony Oliva?  What took so long?

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    1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    Coast bias is real.  That is why Derek Jeter is considered a god and George Brett is just really good. 

    That must be why they elected Bernie Williams, Don Mattingly, Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens so quickly.

    The only bias I've seen in HoF voting seems to be an anti-Detroit bias. There are a lot of Tigers who deserve to go in who can't get any traction.

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    15 minutes ago, Heiny said:

    Just my very humble opinion, but I have lost all respect for the BBWAA.  Morneau didn't even get a second year ballot?  So, although I  respect the HOF, I don't think it's as glorious as it should be.  And yes, I do think the flyover America teams are ignored to a degree vs. east coast and west coast teams.  Jim Kaat,  Bert Blyleven, Tony Oliva?  What took so long?

    Justin Morneau would be like 100th in line to be elected to the Hall of Fame among eligible first basemen. Kaat and Oliva took so long because there were (and still are) better players from their era to induct instead of them.

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    3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    Justin Morneau would be like 100th in line to be elected to the Hall of Fame among eligible first basemen. Kaat and Oliva took so long because there were (and still are) better players from their era to induct instead of them.

    So, are you saying that Kaat and Oliva should not be in the hall, or that there are other players not in that should be?  Either way that's on the BBWAA.

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    I do not know if Joe gets in first ballot.  I think he should, but I think many writers will look at the end of his career as not close to his peak, and want his counting numbers higher.  I think he will get in, but some writers feel passing on year 1 and building up sends some sort of message as to they were HOF but not as dominate kind of thing.  It actually might be he has to get in on a committee vote.  He had a stretch as not just best hitting catcher, if he had more power, ever, but one of best hitters in game at the time. If he played his whole career at catcher he would be first ballot, but writers will use his transition, due to injuries as a reason to slight him. 

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    Kirby and Joe were similar in that both had injuries that impacted their career length, but both were absolutely fabulous for a period of time.

    I think Kirby got in first ballot in part due to his infectious personality.  Writers from all cities just loved him.  He also had the playoff success that Joe does not have.

    I believe Joe will get in, but it may take a few years, and that's OK.

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    1 minute ago, Heiny said:

    So, are you saying that Kaat and Oliva should not be in the hall, or that there are other players not in that should be?  Either way that's on the BBWAA.

    I look at Hall of Fame voting using the question - "Are they the best player from their era not inducted?" For both Kaat and Oliva the answer is No and has always been No. I'm fine if they want to honor them but there is a list of players who are better choices who are still left out.

    For Mauer, he's clearly NOT the best player on this ballot but he's probably in the top 10 which means there should be room for him to get a YES vote. IndianaTwin is correct that voters generally keep voting for someone who they voted for previously so they aren't likely to add Mauer and drop Helton, for example.

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    1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Last night on MLB Network, the talking heads compared the five-year peak of Mattingly with the five-year peak of Mauer and noted that Mattingly didn't get close at all. Then one said, "Mauer will get some points because he did this as a catcher." 

    "Get some points" because he was a catcher? That he did this as a catcher is his point!

    If you looked at just his numbers as a hitter he would not get in, but I agree, the voters should look at that in the scope of him being a catcher for his peak career.  Had he been moved off catcher to play a different position it is likely he would have started his career earlier.  I remember Tom Kelly said if he was not a catcher he could have hit MLB pitching at 19, but he was not ready to catch MLB pitching at 19.  He also would have likely had less injuries and played more total games.  The voters should not just look at his numbers, but look at them in light of catching.  

    One thing that will hurt Joe is his lack of personality, lack of post season success.  Neither should play a factor, but voters vote for all kinds of reasons. 

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    45 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    That must be why they elected Bernie Williams, Don Mattingly, Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens so quickly.

    The only bias I've seen in HoF voting seems to be an anti-Detroit bias. There are a lot of Tigers who deserve to go in who can't get any traction.

    Mattingly and Williams are in the Hall of Very Good - stats no better than Mauer and don't play catcher.  If Mauer is only a maybe, they become no way.   A Rod and Clemons are the steroid poster children, that's a different argument but one I'm not willing to have.   Andy Pettitte is a guy with solid counting stats that benefited from pitching on a bunch of really good teams - a little like Jack Morris, who probably wouldn't have gotten in were it not for the 1991 WS.  Good players all, but probably not hall of famers.  Your mileage may vary.

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    2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    If Joe Mauer played for the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.  there would be no discussion here.  He would be flying in on the first ballot.  The fact that this is even open for discussion continues to show how political the HOF is.

    Political????

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    3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

    This year's returnees...

    It's a strong group of returnees, with Helton (6th year this year, 72.2% last year), Wagner (9th, 68.1%), Andruw Jones (7th, 58.1%), Sheffield (10th, 55.0) and Beltran (2nd, 46.5%). Of those...

    • I think Helton gets in -- virtually everyone who is that close makes it the next year.
    • Wagner will get close, if not in, for the same reason.
    • Jones has been climbing particularly quickly. He only had a little over 7 percent his first two years. I think he will take another big jump. 
    • Last-year guys almost always have a jump, so that will boost Sheffield, though I doubt he gets all the way to 75%.
    • I think Beltran will take a significant jump as he gets further away from the Astros scandal.

    Exiting from last year...

    • Only Rolen (76.3%), Kent (46.5%) and five single-vote guys left the ballot, so there were not a lot of votes freed up.
    • Virtually everyone who voted for Rolen (and more) will vote for Beltre.

    This year's newcomers...

    • Beltre is a given. If he gets even 90 percent, he will have used up the Rolen votes and a significant number of the Kent votes by himself. 
    • Besides Mauer, the rest of the newcomers are Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Victor Martinez, James Shields and Brandon Phillips. That's a much stronger group than last year's first-year guys (Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and then guys like John Lackey, Huston Street and R.A. Dickey).
    • For example, Lackey had the second-highest WAR of last year's newcomers, but nine of this year's first-year guys had a higher WAR than Lackey. 

    Conclusion...

    I think Mauer belongs in, but because of all those factors, I don't think there are enough votes available to get him in this year.

    Catcher with....3 batting titles.  5 silver slugger.  3 gold gloves.  That alone should get him in on 1st ballot 

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    Joe Mauer was the best baseball player in the world in 2009 and he was very nearly the best player in the world for quite a few more years. He is deserving of being in the Hall of Fame. It's unfortunate that the Hall of Fame has a lot of undeserving members as well.

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    Arguably the best catcher in MLB for about an 8yr stretch, multiple All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Gloverz and did a couple things no catcher has every done in history, like 3 batting titles.

    Absolute 1st ballot HOF in my opinion.

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    Joe will get into the hall of fame  , it's just a question of when !!!

    He had great years as a catcher  and the concussions  ended his catching days , yes he should have won a gold glove that 1 season at first base but the voting doesn't always go the way it should ( see politics for an example ) ...

    Cody wrote Mauer as a hometown hero ,  I'm not so sure he was a hero but he was a good hometown boy  and I liked watching him play  ...

    His lack of personality  will hurt his voting some but it shouldn't  , he wasn't a rah rah guy in leadership  but he led by example  , that's Joe Mauer ... 

     

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    3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

    Catcher with....3 batting titles.  5 silver slugger.  3 gold gloves.  That alone should get him in on 1st ballot 

    I believe he has the record for the highest BA & OBP for a catcher in a season also

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    Catching is a premium position & Mauer is one of the best in most aspects at catching. He took a lot of pride in his defense because he had to work at it, hitting came more naturally. The Twins raked while he was catching until he got hurt (wish he hadn't). Catching is much more important than many care to believe. Unless you hit a bunch of HRs  you don't rate. I wish we had another Mauer right now.

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    6 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Last night on MLB Network, the talking heads compared the five-year peak of Mattingly with the five-year peak of Mauer and noted that Mattingly didn't get close at all. Then one said, "Mauer will get some points because he did this as a catcher." 

    "Get some points" because he was a catcher? That he did this as a catcher is his point!

    86uh1s.jpg

    86uhc3.jpg

    He clearly belongs in my HoF, but like others I suspect he won't be first ballot.

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    8 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

    Catcher with....3 batting titles.  5 silver slugger.  3 gold gloves.  That alone should get him in on 1st ballot 

    I agree. It should.

    My point is just that the math of the rest of the ballot can make a huge difference in how soon a guy makes it, and Mauer is hurt by the strength of this year’s ballot.

    Perhaps the classic example is Carlton Fisk. He’s still No. 4 among catchers in JAWS and one of those ahead of him is Pudge Rodriguez, so Pudge Fisk was No. 3 on that list when he retired. He’s a no-brainer first-ballot guy, right?

    Nope. He had the unfortunate situation of entering the ballot with Ryan, Brett and Yount. There weren’t enough votes available for Fisk, so he had to wait until the next year. 

    Circumstances like this are the argument for not being limited to 10 votes per ballot. As others say, a HOFer is a HOFer, no matter what the rest of the ballot looks like. Fisk shouldn’t have had to wait, just for having retired the same year as a bunch of legends.

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