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Stylistically, baseball has changed in recent years. Besides the rare cases, gone are the days of players striving for a .300 batting average. Instead, batters have focused on increasing exit velocity and launch angle to drive the ball with power in the air. (To wit: last year nine qualified players had a batting average of .300 or better, in 2003 there were 40.)
Teams are also deploying power arms out of the bullpen earlier in games, as some starters aren’t given an opportunity to go through a lineup more than twice. Swinging for the fences comes with other downfalls as strikeout totals rise and teams attempt to balance the art of hitting home runs and avoiding strikeouts.
The Star Tribune’s Chip Scoggins asked Derek Falvey about the general acceptance of rising strikeout totals in baseball’s current landscape. "We never intend to hunt strikeout records. That's not a goal, I promise you,” he said. “Any fan that thinks that you need to tell them that is not the case. That was not our goal. That was never our mission."
The Twins weren’t alone in their strikeout futility last season. Minnesota set the record for most strikeouts in a season, but the Seattle Mariners also would have broken the all-time mark with 1,603 strikeouts of their own. Minnesota had seven players with 100 strikeouts or more, but two of the team’s top three strikeout leaders (Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor) won’t be on the roster for 2024. So, how did the team replace those hitters, and can we expect the strikeout numbers to decrease?
Joey Gallo Replacement: Carlos Santana
Last season, the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million contract to add him to the team’s options at first base. Many fans were happy the team had moved on from Miguel Sanó, but the club went and signed the only other player in MLB history with a higher strikeout rate. Gallo has a 37.5 K% for his career, but his 2024 rate was over five percent higher. He can obviously hit some towering home runs and draw walks, but he is prone to more slumps with his massive strikeout rate.
Santana is a very different player type than Gallo because they strike out at opposite ends of the spectrum. Last season, Santana posted a 16.8 K%, nearly identical to his career total. He’s only posted one season with a K% higher than 20%, which was back in 2011, his first full season in the big leagues. Santana is going to put the ball in play more regularly and he can hopefully avoid the prolonged slumps Twins fans witnessed with Gallo during the 2023 campaign.
Michael A. Taylor Replacement: Manuel Margot
Taylor outperformed many projections during the 2023 season with a career-high 21 home runs and an OPS more than 50 points higher than his career average. His jump in power came at a cost of 33.5 K%, his highest total since the 2019 campaign. For his career, Taylor has struck out in 30% of his plate appearances while also getting on base less than 29.5% of the time. Entering his age-33 season, it’s fair to expect age to impact Taylor on both sides of the ball.
Margot has dealt with leg and arm injuries over the last two seasons but is four years younger than Taylor. He also has far less swing-and-miss to his offensive profile. For his career, Margot has a 17.8 K%, lower than that during the 2023 campaign (16.4 K%). He has only crossed the 100-strikeout total in one season (2017) while averaging 64 strikeouts over the last three seasons. Margot doesn’t have Taylor’s home run potential, but being able to avoid strikeouts is going to be a welcome addition to the back end of the lineup.
Returning Players
There are returning players who will also impact the Twins’ strikeout totals. Correa saw a jump from a career 20.8 K% to a 22.6 K% in 2023, the worst offensive season of his career. He battled through a plantar fasciitis injury last season that impacted his swing because he couldn’t put pressure on his heel. Correa is healthy and revamped his swing this winter, so that should help lower his strikeout totals. Buxton is another player returning from injury and looking to cut back on the missed cuts. His K% has been above 30% over the last two seasons while he dealt with a nagging knee injury. If he’s more regularly available, it would benefit the team to have his K% drop back to where he had been from 2019-2021 (mid-20s).
Minnesota’s young core also includes some players to watch regarding strikeout percentage. Julien ranked near the top of the team in total strikeouts despite playing in 109 games. His 31.4 K% was significantly higher than his totals at Double- and Triple-A, so look for him to improve. Pitchers changed their approach versus Wallner later in the season, impacting his strikeout rate. Wallner’s offensive profile is full of swing and miss, so he must adjust and avoid falling into the Gallo realm. Like Julien, Gallo posted better strikeout numbers at Triple-A (28.0 K%), which points to potential improvement.
Strikeouts will continue to be part of baseball. However, the Twins don’t need to perennially be at the bottom of the AL in total strikeouts. Key veteran additions and slight changes in offensive approach should help the 2024 Twins avoid swinging and missing.
Do you think the team’s strikeout totals will drop this season? Which player(s) from 2023 can make the most improvements in the strikeout department? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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