Exploring Five Twins Extension Candidates

What about Garver ? Too risky because he is a catcher?

Because he isn’t a FA until after 2023. He will turn 33 before the start of the 2024 season. Maybe you lock up salary for his arb years. But I sure wouldn’t extend him beyond 2023. And, of course, right now he is at peak value so the Twins have little to lose by waiting.

In what world is Rosario a replacement player? He's not a star, but he has had a pretty good career thus far. I'd likely go year to year with him. I've defended him in other places, but there's a decent chance a replacement may be available at some point this or next year.

 

I doubt Buxton, Berrios, or Sano sign one.

 

Rodgers makes good sense. I could see extending Garver, but given his age, it's likely simply to lock in his arb values and give the team an option year or two. Tyler Duffey's emergence in the pen might make him a candidate as well.

In the world where he just posted a 1.2 fWAR.

The problem with Rosario is his defense just doesn't look like it's going to be very good going forward (two of the last three years his defensive runs saved/total zone rating metrics have put his dWAR into the tank) and with his plate discipline collapsing again he's become a decent player, not a cornerstone. If he could add one more BB per week and get his defense back to par, sure he's a plus starter. But the odds of his defense improving with his speed declining aren't great and he's had more years where he's a pure hacker at the plate than not. He's not a replacement level player, but he was a below average starter and there's legitimate reason to be concerned he's trending in the wrong direction.

Much as I think relievers can be pretty fungible from year to year, Taylor Rogers is right in his prime. He looks like a perfect candidate to one of those old school "buy out the arbitration years for cost certainty" deals and maybe tack on one extra year. Rogers gets security and doesn't have to go through arbitration, the Twins get cost certainty and don't have to go through arbitration (and maybe another year of team control) and everyone is happy.

I'd try for an extension with Sano; even if he can't stick at 3B long term, there's no question that he can play there for at least the next couple of seasons; 1B could be open by then, DH will almost certainly be open after Cruz's contract ends and his power absolutely plays. Yes, there are going to be big K stretches, but come one: the power plays. Sano isn't a juiced ball guy, he hits moonshots. He will get the walks, there's plenty of value there and the injury at the start of the season was a fluky thing. Yes, I want him extended; he might hit 50 dingers next year.

Buxton...oh, Byron Buxton. Tough one. I love the guy, his D is amazing and it looked like he was figuring some things out at the plate. The health is a HUGE concern. I suspect he won't go for an extension because he'd be buying low on himself and I don't think his representation would advise it or he would accept it. It's worth exploring, but I don't see him accepting a deal that's based on his actual performance and with his health concerns and lack of MLB track record as a hitter, so I don't see an agreement.

Berrios: absolutely extend him. He's a #1 starter in my mind (are there 20 starters out there you'd take over Jose Berrios?) and is a terrific anchor for the rotation. He makes his starts, he eats up innings, he gets Ks and is a tough pitcher. I want him in the rotation for the next 5 years minimum. Hopefully they can get it done, but he seems awfully willing to bet on himself.

No on Rosario as the Twins have prospects who can replace him that should be ready within two years. 

No on Rogers as he's a relief pitcher and has 4 more years of control. Maybe after next season if he's lights out again.

Buxton is a ? to me. How do you even get an appropriate value for him with how much time he's missed. I'd probably wait until next offseason as he also has 4 more years of team control.

I'd look to get something done for Sano. Can MLB contracts be incentive based? If so I'd want to put in extra incentives that will motivate him.

Berrios is a no doubter in my mind. He seems like a great teammate and is very hardworking. I'd look to lock him up as long as possible.

 

 

Rodgers makes good sense. I could see extending Garver, but given his age, it's likely simply to lock in his arb values and give the team an option year or two. Tyler Duffey's emergence in the pen might make him a candidate as well. 

The only reason IMO it would make sense to extend Rodgers is to try and buy out his abitration years for less money. I would't though. I feel like there is a much better chance he washes out than he is still a dominant reliever by the time he is into his 30s. Just a feeling... If he is still dominant at the end of arbitration, you can use him as a trade chip that season if needed, make a decision about signing him then. 

I'm a fan of Rosario. I think he's probably my favorite player on the team. I hope they extend him. 

Of the Twins outfielders, I think Rosario has been the most productive over the last three seasons:

Byron Buxton:  G- 255    R- 125    RBI- 101    HR- 26    BA- .245

Max Kepler:     G- 437    R- 245    RBI- 217    HR- 75    BA- .239

Eddie Rosario: G- 426    R- 257    RBI- 264    HR- 83    BA- .284

The fangraphs 2020 projections have Kepler and Rosario nearly identical, with the exception of BA and BB rate. But when you add their hits and walks they both come out around 200.

It seems like many commenters are placing a high value on plate discipline and on base percentage, which generally equates to more walks and fewer hits, (evidently the case with Rosario and Kepler). They both hit a comparable amount of extra base hits; the difference is that Rosario hits more singles, and Kepler draws more walks. So which is more valuable, the walk or the single? It depends on the percentage of those singles that come with runners on base or runners in scoring position. If the amount of times that you are on base is comparable, then your opportunity to score is comparable. But if the way you arrived on base is by hit, rather than walk, you have a higher chance of having driven in a run. So, to me, all other things equal, the natural hitter is more valuable than the plate discipline guy. 

Obviously a plate discipline guy helps run up the pitch count, and free swinger is prone to a quick out. So that's a point for the plate discipline guy. Frankly, the more I talk about it, the more I think you need both types, and the Twins had a nice balance and maybe that's why they were so good. 

I am in favor of extending the top 3, Berrios, Sano, Buxton.  Buxton is the hardest to figure, but could be the least valuable and could be the most.  Will depend on what he wants.  Berrios will not be cheap, but get it done. After next year may well be too late.  Sano I would do, might have to have some weight clauses (if legal) or other ways to keep him in shape. Hopefully Cruz gets him straightened out before he leaves.

I can see scenarios where it would make sense to extend every one of these guys...

Maybe you trade (or plan on trying to trade) multiple outfield prospects; maybe you believe Sano/Buxton have what it takes to solve their lingering challenges, etc., etc. Of course, it won't play out that way. Among other things, it depends on what the player wants to do. And it's always worth remembering that extending any of these guys on anything close to reasonable terms (say, if you're not high on Rosario at this point) doesn't preclude trading them later...it could even help along those lines.

Rosario – Absolutely not. One of the prospects will be better than him by 2021. The dollars will be more productive spent elsewhere.

Rodgers – I think he is great but I would not extend a RP, at least not yet.

Buxton – Sure but I don’t know the two sides could agree at this point.

Sano – A year ago I would have said absolutely not. He proved something showing up in better shape and getting back the plate discipline that made him very good early in his career. My problem would be that his body type just does not hold up.

Berrios – Sure, if the amount is reasonable. He might have an exaggerated sense of his market value.  I would do it now if the number is reasonable. This can always be revisited at a later date.

In what world is Rosario a replacement player?

In the world where he just posted a 1.2 fWAR.

That is, by definition, better than a replacement player. 

It was a down year for him, I wasn't thrilled with it either, but there's little reason to expect him to get even worse next year given his age and history.  The projections will be for him to be a shade above a 2 WAR player, which is starter level.

There's probably a good portion of the fanbase that views him as better than he ever really was, but there seems to be a massive overreaction in the other direction too.

Go year to year with him.  I think he could definitely be a non-tender candidate next year, but he's still a reasonable value right now.  Even a powerhouse like Houston still has an averagish guy like Marisnick filling out their roster.

Berrios is probably the one where I might feel really motivated to get something done.

I tend to think that his career is going to be fairly Radke-esk, but hopefully productive for longer. By which I mean, very good, de facto #1 starter on the team, but never quite getting to that national ace level as one of the best pitchers in the game.  But I also tend to forget how young he still is given how many innings he's already pitched with the Twins.  If they don't work out an extension, he's going to be just 28 when he does hit the free agent market in a couple of years (younger than anyone this year), in which case he'll be in line for a really big contract.  Probably not necessarily the biggest AAV, but some team might easily think about going in on an 8 year deal for him.

It'd be nice to be able to lock him up for a few of those years where he's still in the middle of his prime, but it will probably also incentivise his side to drive a hard bargain, so I don't see them getting as incredible deals as they did for Kepler and Polanco.

I like Rosario. I'm not a big defensive guy (not that I think he's as bad as made out to be) and he seems to be really well liked in the clubhouse, so I think he brings more to the table than just a bat.

 

But the corner outfield is where you find all the free agent bargains.

 

And the Twins have about 50 corner bat prospects within two levels of the majors.

And that is also why when someone comes a callin for one of those prospects and is willing to give up something of value for them, you don't clench them with such a tight fist. 

I like Rosario and feel he should be kept here until he reaches free agency. That said, he is pretty much Jacque Jones and I kind of feel he should be treated the same way Jacque was. Pay him what he's worth when he's here, but when its time to part way, its time.  

Sorry Cody, you lost me at hello. 

Your evaluation of Rosario is unfair to the point of blind bias.

Rosie had, IIRC, 32 HRs and 109 RBIs. Those are MVP candidate numbers.  I don't think many Twins "replacement level players" tallied those numbers since they moved to Minnesota.  Those are almost Killebrew numbers, certainly Morneau numbers. 

So your comment that most Twins fans over value Rosie's contribution.... sorry. That is Fake News. And more than a little condescending. 

But anyways,

I'd extend Buck, Sano, and Jose. These guys are special. I'd consider extending Rosie too. But we DO have corner OF guys about to break in. 

I'd try to teach Taylor a new pitch and think of converting him to a starter. He has the mound presence and stamina to be a #1 or #2 starter. Seriously, you want to pull a rabbit out of a hat, make Taylor another Grienke. 

I'd wait on Garver. Catchers are tough to project, given the challenges of the position. 

And I'd ask Cruz to sign on for another year. 

Sorry Cody, you lost me at hello.

 

Your evaluation of Rosario is unfair to the point of blind bias.

Rosie had, IIRC, 32 HRs and 109 RBIs. Those are MVP candidate numbers. I don't think many Twins "replacement level players" tallied those numbers since they moved to Minnesota. Those are almost Killebrew numbers, certainly Morneau numbers.

 

So your comment that most Twins fans over value Rosie's contribution.... sorry. That is Fake News. And more than a little condescending.

 

But anyways,

 

 

I'd extend Buck, Sano, and Jose. These guys are special. I'd consider extending Rosie too. But we DO have corner OF guys about to break in.

 

I'd try to teach Taylor a new pitch and think of converting him to a starter. He has the mound presence and stamina to be a #1 or #2 starter. Seriously, you want to pull a rabbit out of a hat, make Taylor another Grienke.

 

I'd wait on Garver. Catchers are tough to project, given the challenges of the position.

 

And I'd ask Cruz to sign on for another year.

Two of the three finalists had over 40 HR. Both were also gold glove finalists. The third had roughly the same number of HR and RBI. But of course Marcus Semien is a shortstop. Also a gold glove finalist.

Eddie Rosario’s 32 HR barely cracked the top 40 in MLB.