Edouard Julien is On the Clock

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

With Lee going 4 for 5 at ST. Paul and Lewis healthy, I’d say it’s time to call them both up now. And I’d call up Keirsey as the main Buxton backup and 4th OF while I’m at it. Keirsey had .400 OBP s OPS about .846 vs lefties last I checked.

Seems like the first 2 moves over the next 2 weeks or so are relatively easy. First, Lewis up for Julien, with LEWIS playing 2B. Give Lewis 3-4 games at 2B in AAA to get ready and keep Miranda at 3B for now. Second, bring up Keirsey to play LF against RH pitching and CF when Buxton is off or the DH. Castro or Larnach can play LF against LH pitching. DFA/trade Margot. He adds nothing and has had his chance to show what he can do. Which turned out to be very little. 

The hard one is what to do in about 2-3 weeks to a month when Lee is ready and back up to speed. I would consider trading or DFA'ing Farmer, but only if we're confident Lee or Castro can play SS once or twice a week. If not, one of Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff needs to go. Frankly, we'll probably have an injury to create space. Lee plays 2B, Lewis moves to 3B, and Miranda becomes a 1B/3B/DH. We will need Miranda at 3B since Lewis will be sitting or DHing at least twice a week, and we need to keep Miranda's bat in lineup. If that means Santana becomes a late inning defensive replacement, starts twice a week guy, so be it. Miranda is one of the more consistent hitters we have. Castro becomes more of a 4th/5th OF than a super UTL, and only plays in the infield occasionally. So, absent injury, this is what I would do;

Lewis for Julien (this weekend, Friday in Houston)

Keirsey for Margot (next week, meets team in Pittsburgh on 6/7, or in MN on 6/10)

Lee for Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff, whoever hits worse (week of June 10). 

Starting lineup by ASB is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Kepler in RF, Jeffers at C/DH, Larnach at DH/LF, Buxton in CF, Lee at 2B,  Miranda/Santana at 1B, Castro and either Keirsey or Kirilloff in LF.  Farmer/Keirsey/Kiriloff - 2 on the bench and on the team, Vasquez the #2 Catcher. 

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

With Lee going 4 for 5 at ST. Paul and Lewis healthy, I’d say it’s time to call them both up now. And I’d call up Keirsey as the main Buxton backup and 4th OF while I’m at it. Keirsey had .400 OBP s OPS about .846 vs lefties last I checked.

Seems like the first 2 moves over the next 2 weeks or so are relatively easy. First, Lewis up for Julien, with LEWIS playing 2B. Give Lewis 3-4 games at 2B in AAA to get ready and keep Miranda at 3B for now. Second, bring up Keirsey to play LF against RH pitching and CF when Buxton is off or the DH. Castro or Larnach can play LF against LH pitching. DFA/trade Margot. He adds nothing and has had his chance to show what he can do. Which turned out to be very little. 

The hard one is what to do in about 2-3 weeks to a month when Lee is ready and back up to speed. I would consider trading or DFA'ing Farmer, but only if we're confident Lee or Castro can play SS once or twice a week. If not, one of Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff needs to go. Frankly, we'll probably have an injury to create space. Lee plays 2B, Lewis moves to 3B, and Miranda becomes a 1B/3B/DH. We will need Miranda at 3B since Lewis will be sitting or DHing at least twice a week, and we need to keep Miranda's bat in lineup. If that means Santana becomes a late inning defensive replacement, starts twice a week guy, so be it. Miranda is one of the more consistent hitters we have. Castro becomes more of a 4th/5th OF than a super UTL, and only plays in the infield occasionally. So, absent injury, this is what I would do;

Lewis for Julien (this weekend, Friday in Houston)

Keirsey for Margot (next week, meets team in Pittsburgh on 6/7, or in MN on 6/10)

Lee for Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff, whoever hits worse (week of June 10). 

Starting lineup by ASB is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Kepler in RF, Jeffers at C/DH, Larnach at DH/LF, Buxton in CF, Lee at 2B,  Miranda/Santana at 1B, Castro and either Keirsey or Kirilloff in LF.  Farmer/Keirsey/Kiriloff - 2 on the bench and on the team, Vasquez the #2 Catcher. 

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

Dream on.

You're probably right. Makes too much sense. 

Julien's line, literally only 13 days ago .228/.342/.433 OPS .781 wRC+ 125. He's had a bad 10 game streak. I'm not a huge advocate or believer in Julien, but a bad 10 games isn't going to get me on board the demotion train.

Brooks Lee, OMG!!!!!! Brooks Lee!!!!!! has no business near the Twins' roster until at least after the ASG.

Julien has had a miserable month, so has Kirilloff, Jeffers has fallen off quite a bit. That's baseball. Great players have slumps, but by the end of the year, things almost always balance out. It's super hard to be patient watching Julien take strike three almost once a game, but if/when it turns into a 15% walk rate with decreased strikeouts, it will be acceptable again. 

It is the coaching staff and front office's job to determine if a player can cut it or whether they will never get to the point where they will be a trusted regular. So far, they are sticking with Julien, but I believe their patience is wavering a bit. I truly don't believe they want to cut bait on a single position player on the active roster. I would bet on a minor injury trip to the IL for someone before any of the current 13 are sent to the minors. Further, I think it puts Keirsey on the back burner despite a really good run hitting and perceived skill as an outfield defender.

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

Great Players ---------- no one mentioned here meets that standard.

Ted Williams once went 0-17, in his worst year, the only year his OPS dropped below 1.000 he still only had 27 K; his rookie year he had 64 Ks, worst ever,  that is a great player .

The term great should not used when speaking of Julien, Kirilloff or Jeffers.

Great players like Mike Trout, who had surgery while in a 4-35 slump. Perhaps my thought could be misunderstood. I didn't say that Kirilloff, Jeffers or Julien were great players, but even great players have slumps. I know Killebrew went through some skids in his career, as did Puckett. 

Strikeouts are far more common in today's game. That is a fact of life. Mentioning Williams numbers of 60+ years ago doesn't make much difference. Yes, Yogi Berra hit more homers in a season than he had strikeouts. I believe Joe DiMaggio did the same.

6 hours ago, RpR said:

Julien is a Gallo with an iron glove;

Never mind the Gallo comp, Gallo has always been a good glove but I'm wondering if this is still true for Julien.  He's legitimately made himself a decent defender in a matter of months.

That's impressive in it's own right and one of the reasons I'm willing to be patient with him. He learns so much so quickly, including the english language, I'm wondering if he spent too much time on defense over the offseason.

Whats the chances he's spend too much time working on the glove and is behind on the adjustments the league made to him?  A AAA reset might be in order but he's not on the clock by any means.

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Pretty sure Lewis isn't playing 2nd base when he returns.

 

Probably not, but it does make sense as a way to keep Miranda in the everyday lineup. So does playing Lewis in LF, but that makes too much sense to actually happen. 

18 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Who goes?

DFA Margot is an easy one.

Option Kirilloff?

DFA Santana?

This probably won't happen, but they need to release Santana so Miranda can play first when Lewis comes back. His defense has been solid, but I don't know how they can justify keeping him in the lineup. A major league first baseman having trouble staying above the Mendoza line isn't going to cut it. He's had a good career, time to start thinking about the next phase of his life.

17 hours ago, twinstalker said:

This is just a guess, but it appears that Julien sees the ball's path much better than he sees it out of the hand.  Problem with that is the path is misleading if you aren't sure of the pitch itself, which seems to be the issue.  And that could be total bunk, I don't know.

The best hitters flirt with a 15% K rate in the minors.  Julien's was never less than 24% in any year-level.  EmRod's similar or worse than Julien in that respect.  Take even a power hitter like Pete Alonso, his K rate was between 15-20%.

So it's not surprising that MLB pitchers get Julien out.  To strike out 25-30% in the minors means there's a hole in your swing.  MLB pitchers inevitably find it.

So last year during spring training when certain people were talking up Julien, you might have found a couple scoffing comments from yours truly.  K rate doesn't lie, generally.  25-30% K rate in MiLB means there's a hole in your swing, and MLB pitchers will find it.  15-20% K rate in MiLB means you likely can pay attention to other predictors, such as exit velocity and such.  No hard and fast rules, but that's my take from years and years of determining predictors of MLB success.

Royce Lewis is going to be an interesting case study for many reasons.  His K rate wasn't great, and it wasn't horrible, but his barrel rates and exit velocities are likely excellent.  Nobody's had time to find his weaknesses.  That portends early success, and from there it's all about his smarts, work ethic, and ability to adapt, which is far more likely than it is with Julien or EmRod, because he probably doesn't have a pronounced hole in his swing like they do.

Honestly, if they could get real value (and $$$ efficiency), trading EmRod this year is probably the smartest move they could make.  The question is if they could find that perfect player in return.  I think a superb defensive CF like Ceddanne Rafaela has hitting chops that haven't been shown in MLB, but I doubt the Red Sox would give him up for EmRod, even with his slow start.

Note on re-read:  I've always like Julien and think he has a chance to be good.  There are a lot of things to like and seemingly only one thing to figure out.  He has power, speed, eye, and doesn't chase much.  I just didn't think he'd slide seamlessly into MLB.  On the other hand, I grabbed him early (years ago) on my dynasty teams.

Biggest hole in Julien's swing is his refusal to swing at all.  Last I saw he had an equal number of swinging and looking strikeouts in his absurdly high number of total strikeouts.

3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

This probably won't happen, but they need to release Santana so Miranda can play first when Lewis comes back. His defense has been solid, but I don't know how they can justify keeping him in the lineup. A major league first baseman having trouble staying above the Mendoza line isn't going to cut it. He's had a good career, time to start thinking about the next phase of his life.

Agreed. I also think we will know a lot when Lewis starts playing the field in AAA. It will be interesting to see if it's anything other than 3B. If it's 2B, Julien on the edge of a demotion. If it's 3B, the choice is probably between Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff unless the FO is really ready to DFA Margot. I hope so, but it seems unlikely. If Lewis is playing LF, more likely Margot is on the edge. Having said that, highly unlikely that Lewis plays the OF. 

Question - would anyone pick up Margot's contract if he was DFA'd? If I remember correctly, his salary for the year is $10 million and the Dodgers sent $6 million of that cost so his cost to the Twins is $4 million.  Anyone picking him up on waivers would have to eat the remaining portion of his contract but I'm not sure if it's the full $10 million or just a prorated share of the $4 million Twins portion.  I'm not sure how that works. In either event, it seems unlikely that anyone will pay that so maybe the Twins could DFA him and sent him back to AAA. Margo may not want to elect free agency because then he forfeits the contract, again if I understand this correctly. It seems to me that if I'm understanding this right, there may be a real possibility that the Twins could DFA Margo and keep him at the AAA level.

All of this though is probably wasted space because someone will get hurt and that will open up the roster spot.