Twins Video
Box Score:
Bulk Pitcher: David Festa: 4 2/3, 12 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (96 Pitches, 65 Strikes, 67.7%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton 2 (17), Ryan Jeffers (6), Ty France (6)
Bottom 3 WPA: Festa (-.498), Matt Wallner (-.204), Trevor Larnach (-.180)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
Another day, a new rock bottom for the Minnesota Twins. With their pitching in a slump, and their lineup cooling off after a decent start to June, it was the defense's turn to revert to early-April levels of performance ,as the Twins lost the first two games of the series against Milwaukee 26-6. It marks the longest stretch of losing baseball with Byron Buxton available and hitting well that I can remember.
The day began with Danny Coulombe acting as an opener for David Festa. After two quick outs to begin the day, the red-hot Christian Yelich got on top of a hanging cutter from the lefty and laced it into the right field corner. He would score on a bloop single from William Contreras.
The Twins would answer this time! First, Buxton rammed a sinker 411 feet into the bleachers in left-center to get the offense going. And it did, with four consecutive singles off of fungible Milwaukee starter Quinn Priester. That left the bases loaded with one out and two runs in, but Kody Clemens lined out hard to second baseman Brice Turang, and Ryan Jeffers tapped out, limiting the damage.
With Festa starting his day, he was greeted by a home run from Rhys Hoskins, tying the game and flipping the momentum of the ballgame. Festa would stop the bleeding there, but would not be so fortunate in the third inning.
Sal Frelick began the inning with a dribbler that Brooks Lee bobbled, and was scored an error (but later reconsidered and called a dubious infield single). Jackson Chourio, fully capable of crushing 450-foot home runs, bunted right to Lee, who missed the barehand play, putting a second runner on base. Yelich then hit a chopper that bounced over Lee's outstretched glove to score Frelick and regain the lead. Chourio also took the extra base on said single, which would prove crucial as he scored on Hoskins' sacrifice fly. So two ground balls, a bunt and a fly ball led to two runs for the Brewers.
Were it the Twins, that sequence would lead to zero runs and a 6-8 week injury.
The Brewers weren't done with Festa. Caleb Durbin legged out an infield single, and Joey Ortiz poked a single through the right side, with Durbin taking third on the play. Once again, Festa made his pitches, but the Brewers had a game plan and they executed it. Festa even managed to strike out both Chourio (great slider) and Yelich (excellent changeup) to end the inning, but a wild pitch during the Yelich at-bat scored Durbin, and the Brewers were suddenly up three.
Jeffers did manage a long home run off a fat cutter from Priester, who was not impressive and ended up going 3 1/3 innings with three runs allowed, two home runs and four strikeouts.
Festa finally caved in the fifth. He walked Contreras on four pitches, but then induced a ground ball from Isaac Collins to Carlos Correa, who nimbly tagged second for a forceout. Festa got another grounder, although a hard-hit one-hopped, from Hoskins, right to Lee. However Lee, perhaps ruminating over the numerous close calls and misplays he had already made, didn't get his glove down and the ball deflected off his body and under the tarp, allowing Hoskins what was technically a double. Festa then grooved a changeup to the nitro zone (down and in) of Turang, who smacked it 412 feet for a three-run home run that effectively ended the series. Three more singles would follow, and before you could blink the score was 9-3 and Jonah Bride was probably starting to get his arm loose again.
Buxton would deliver another home run as part of a 3-5 day with a steal that raised his OPS above .900 (.928 to be exact).
That made the score 9-4, and the Twins would threaten again in the seventh.
Facing lefty D.L. Hall, Ty France drew a walk in front of Lee's third single of the game. Correa singled, and Bride came in to draw a gutty walk. All of a sudden, the tying run was at the plate in Jeffers. Nick Mears was brought in to face the Twins' catcher, and fell behind 3-1. He did induce a run scoring dribbler that made the score 9-6. Harrison Bader was then brought in to pinch hit for DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and flied out to right field.
The Twins would add in the eighth, facing lefty Jared Koenig. After Buxton struck out, Wallner beat out an infield hit. Larnach popped out, and Ty France fell behind in the count before leaning out and flicking a curveball inside the left field foul pole for a home run to make the score 9-8. Lee and Correa each delivered their fourth singles of the game, bringing up Bride with the tying run 90 feet away.
That prompted the Brewers to insert their closer, our old dopey friend Trevor Megill, who has flourished in Milwaukee. He made mincemeat out of Bride, dotting a 98 MPH fastball on the outside corner for a called strikeout to end the frame.
Megill was brought out for the ninth, an unfamiliar position for him, and gave up a screaming double to Bader with one out. Buxton was intentionally walked, and Wallner came to the plate with the winning run on first base. He would pop out, leaving the game for Larnach, who was caught looking after grimacing on some swings early in the at-bat, his hand appearing to still affect him after sitting the past few games.
Stray Observations:
-Maybe the Brewers, Rays and Guardians are onto something with the way they approach hitting. The way I view it is that those teams will do anything possible to score one run, even if that means sacrificing individual at-bats. Once they have put pressure on the pitcher, that is when they start waiting for mistakes. Those teams are the most analytically-driven in the game, and maybe its time to throw away the dinosaur stats of mid-2010's sabermetrics and approach the game more in the moment, rather than big-picture. At least some of the time.
It's similar to how the most efficient way to score in basketball is to shoot three pointers. But if the other team completely sells out to stop you from taking them, you have to make an adjustment. I just don't understand why that is so easy to understand in the NBA while being mocked mercilessly in MLB as backward and anti-intellectual. I would say the strict adherence to stuff we figured out in 2005 is far more anti-intellectual.
-Buxton is about to have the most trade value he has had since he was the number one prospect in baseball. Despite certain fan ignorance surrounding his contract, he is on an extremely (and I can't stress this enough) cheap deal while performing as the best center fielder in baseball. Seriously he makes the 106th most money per year, right in front of Alex Cobb. Buxton wants to be here, and surely the front office wants him here, but if they are approached with a trade proposal of multiple top-50 prospects and some major league ready talent, they would have to at least entertain it.
-Lee had four or five plays that he didn't make. Most were difficult, but with each successive play not made, it looked like Lee was affected mentally. He did have four hits, though.
What’s Next: Bailey Ober (4-4, 4.54 ERA) faces Brian Woo (6-4, 3.12 ERA) as the Twins continue their homestand against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have been struggling, though not to the level of the Twins, with their offense crashing back to Earth after a strong start. Ober has been piecing it together, but is clearly not 100% physically and will need to out-smart the Mariners (not that difficult) if he wants to pitch deep into the game.
Postgame Interviews:
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
| Sands | 0 | 13 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 44 |
| Topa | 0 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 44 |
| Wentz | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Coulombe | 0 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 39 |
| Stewart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 29 |
| Durán | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 21 |
| Varland | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| Jax | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 |
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