Hayes: "Minnesota Twins are believed to have $5 million [to spend]"

tony&rodney · January 31, 2025

Hard decisions to make and Falvey gets the big bucks.

Sounds more or less like what has already been discussed at some length - Cease for 1)SWR or Matthews, 2)Larnach, 3)a prospect like Raya or K. Culpepper, and 4)Castro. Can the Twins substitute Julien or Miranda for Larnach or Castro?

Same questions apply: Do the Twins feel Emmanuel Rodriguez is ready now? How confident are the Twins in receiving production from Brooks Lee and host of others (Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Eeles, and Keaschall)?

Preller knows he isn't getting the top 3 prospects or either Ryan or Ober. The discussion with the Cubs contains mostly top 100 prospects with high risks. That doesn't help the Padres whatsoever. Likely everyone just rolls with what they have into the season.

miller761 · January 31, 2025

Not Castro. Versatility, speed and being a switch hitter bring too much to this team that is already very confined to what they can do on a baseball field, Castro can be easily dealt at trade deadline if need be, Management needs to see which of these young players are going to produce at the MLB level. Cease plays once every 5 days. His production can not be disputed but is the difference between him and the pitcher that great to warrant giving up that much. You need to get into the playoffs first before Cease can really help your team but the team plays a game every day,

nicksaviking · January 31, 2025

There is not a 5M free agent I want.

I'd rather the Pohlad's just tip that amount to their server at Modist Brewing after their farewell party after the sale of the team.

IndianaTwin · January 31, 2025

No, it's about $15M more than "we originally thought Derek Falvey had to play with," at least if we were accepting the narrative that "there won't be a further cut" means "we're going to spend what we did last year, so we have to cut $10M from the projection -- adios Vazquez, Paddack or Castro." Some of us weren't accepting that narrative, but unfortunately, that's virtually the only message we heard on TD all winter.

I said in another post that Falvey tends to operate below the radar, so if there's speculation on Cease, it seems unlikely to happen. I also see that this one only links him to the Cubs and Mets: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/the-opener-moniak-yates-cease.html And now that the Padres signed a catcher, their interest in Vazquez goes away.

I don't have a good handle on what's left, but I see a Solano/Taylor/Santana-type signing, a veteran presence who can play 1B or play CF. Less likely is a lefty reliever.

(Oh, but it's a Friday evening -- please let me wake up to the out of the blue surprise that the Polar Bear is a Twin, kinda like happened a couple years ago on a Saturday morning with Correa.)

thelanges5 · January 31, 2025

Can we just set it aside for the trade deadline?

nicksaviking · January 31, 2025

13 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Can we just set it aside for the trade deadline?

Six months interest on 5M dollars? Now you're talking their language.

Doctor Gast · January 31, 2025

Only FA I was hoping for is now gone. Polanco at 1B would have been a win/win. Polanco & Twins could have been better off.

Cory Engelhardt · January 31, 2025

I'd be curious if this means there would be MORE to spend (than 5 million) if they were to trade Paddack (for example) in a salary dump? My guess is the 5 million more to spend is if they don't sell off anyone at this point, right?

tony&rodney · January 31, 2025

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd be curious if this means there would be MORE to spend (than 5 million) if they were to trade Paddack (for example) in a salary dump? My guess is the 5 million more to spend is if they don't sell off anyone at this point, right?

Since the statements last Fall that the Twins were not going to make further cuts to player payroll, my take is that the budget was at the very least a bit fluid and not anything to get all crazed about this offseason.

The primary issue as far as the Twins roster is concerned is and has been a question of what Falvey views as the best combination of players. The hesitancy to complete trades can be seen as fear of failure (not a good thing in baseball), which seems unlikely, or that Falvey has a high degree of confidence in the team currently assembled. I just looked again at the list of nearly 100 players still available as free agents and cannot justify adding any of them ahead of our current team. I do feel that there are possibilities for transactions with other teams and if the Twins trade away more players than they receive the need or use of one of the available free agents can be revisited at that time.

Parfigliano · February 1, 2025

1.5 dollar off the price of a hotdog and or beer

Jocko87 · February 1, 2025

Quote

There’s another easily imagined reality in which the arbitration-eligible players made a collective $5 million more than they did in this reality. They no longer have to guess.

@Greggory Masterson

Gregg pretty much had this wired a few weeks ago when he wrote about the arb savings being meaningful. If they came in 2.4 under their projection, they would have also planned for a similar overpay variation.

It adds up perfectly. Is it enough for Mark Cahna?

IndianaTwin · February 1, 2025

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd be curious if this means there would be MORE to spend (than 5 million) if they were to trade Paddack (for example) in a salary dump? My guess is the 5 million more to spend is if they don't sell off anyone at this point, right?

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Since the statements last Fall that the Twins were not going to make further cuts to player payroll, my take is that the budget was at the very least a bit fluid and not anything to get all crazed about this offseason.

The primary issue as far as the Twins roster is concerned is and has been a question of what Falvey views as the best combination of players. The hesitancy to complete trades can be seen as fear of failure (not a good thing in baseball), which seems unlikely, or that Falvey has a high degree of confidence in the team currently assembled. I just looked again at the list of nearly 100 players still available as free agents and cannot justify adding any of them ahead of our current team. I do feel that there are possibilities for transactions with other teams and if the Twins trade away more players than they receive the need or use of one of the available free agents can be revisited at that time.

I'll combine a response. I read the statement as saying that they can go about $5M above where they are now.

I agree with Tony & Rodney that there is fluidity. Budgets in an organization of this size in an industry with this level of volatility will ALWAYS have some wiggle room. You're always looking for value. It's an extreme example, but when Correa became available at what was perceived as a bargain, they went for it. I joked about the Polar Bear above, but if his agent called and said that he was available for some ridiculously low number, they would find a way to make it work. Then, add the wiggle room that may have been added if arb-eligible guys did indeed come in lower than expected and we're starting to generate a few bucks.

I also agree with Tony & Rodney's read on how Falvey may be thinking about the current roster. I'm not sure if this is what you were saying, but you seem to be suggesting that Falvey seems to have a lot of confidence in the current roster. If so, that's my read as well. (And I agree with that, though they haven't asked me).

I'll nuance my agreement with Tony & Rodney's next statement in saying that when I looked this afternoon, I didn't also see anybody that I like better than the parallel person already on the roster. There were a handful that I could see as additions (i.e., depth) to the mix, however. Without digging too deep, Bader is one that comes to mind as an MAT-type addition from a few years ago that could be helpful. There are a few relievers that could be a worthy additional arm to add to the mix. I think (and hope) they won't spend $5M just to spend it, but if they find a guy that they can pay $5M and reasonably hope to get $8M in value, go for it.

Finally, at this point, I think any trades are most likely to be talent-for-talent at the major league level (and reasonably cost-neutral), trading from an area that feels a little deeper to bolster another area that seems a little shallow. Arraez for Lopez would be the prime example from the past. Because Paddack has been one of the easy targets, I'll use him as the current example. If they truly believe in their rookie starting pitchers, I could see them trading Paddack for some team's similarly priced (or even slightly higher priced) RH batting outfielder.

ashbury · February 1, 2025

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Is it enough for Mark Cahna?

Probably, but.

Do-not-want-dog.jpg.90ae1df74e92bbbd9467c97cbe825c3b.jpg

Danchat · February 1, 2025

I'd like to think they could spend that on a reliever on the market who could be an upgrade from Tonkin... so when we get to the halfway point of the year and have been churning through the backend of the bullpen, we can at least have one more passable reliever. And maybe a lefty? How much is Danny Coulombe going to require?

ashbury · February 1, 2025

8 minutes ago, ddubbl1 said:

send Paddock, Vasquez and Julienn to San Diego for Dylan Cease. Easy Peazy!!

Yeah, no chance this offer gets outbid by one of the big boys such as the Mets who are also said to be kicking the tires on Cease. 😀

Doctor Gast · February 1, 2025

Spend $5M on a Margot or Gallo to block our players' playing time. No, save the money for something significant.

DJL44 · February 1, 2025

9 hours ago, ddubbl1 said:

send Paddock, Vasquez and Julienn to San Diego for Dylan Cease. Easy Peazy!!!!

Ah, the famous our garbage players we don't want for your ace pitcher trade. I'm sure they'll go for that.

DJL44 · February 1, 2025

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Spend $5M on a Margot or Gallo to block our players' playing time. No, save the money for something significant.

Somebody needs to block the playing time of Michael Helman, Eddie Julien, Austin Martin, Mickey Gasper and Dashawn Keirsey. Those are AAA depth players, not MLB-caliber starters.

LambchoP · February 1, 2025

Mildly exciting move could be to use the cash and sign a lefty for our pen. I'd be fine with Columbe or Andrew Chafin. Both would be a good reliever that would be able to out pitch both lefties currently on our roster.

More exciting move would be to salary dump Paddack or Vasquez then use the cash to sign the polar bear. Give him a 3 year offer with some options outs. Then maybe use some combo of Julien/Miranda as trade bait for more pitching.

Won't happen, but it's fun to speculate. I actually think someone nicknamed the polar bear would be a great fit in MN. Plus, he's the big RH power bat that we need. A lineup with Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Alonso and Wallner?! That's intimidating actually!

Riverbrian · February 1, 2025

20 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Can we just set it aside for the trade deadline?

5 Million on an innings eater or Short Side platoon bat. Or two of them. Please... No... Don't do it.

Just take that 5 million and keep it in your pocket until the trade deadline. I honestly don't believe that a Bundy type or Margot type is going to bring this thing home for us.

If the club is in the running maybe we can get a decent addition for the stretch run. Two years in a row of nothing added at the deadline while the team is in contention has to STOP.

Waiting for the deadline... that will give the club ACTUAL real time health and performance data. It will give the club a chance to figure out what they ACTUALLY really need based upon ACTUAL health not projected health. The club can assess ACTUAL performance not projected performance. The club can look at the actual July context. Buxton's hurt again... We could use some CF help for this contending team. Let's take on the rest of that Luis Robert contract and make a deal with the White Sox. I got this 5 million right here... let's go find a couple million more and get it done. Why blow the money now for an innings eater or short sider?

If the club isn't in the running at the trade deadline. Sell... there are not many sellers these days. Might get some value out of a lack of sellers market.

Anything but the continued kicking the can down the road year after year looking for the next Margot instead of looking for the next capable player making the minimum. No more filling holes with below average hole filler, no more keeping the door shut on developing hole filler because we keep thinking the below average hole filler is just fine.

Riverbrian · February 1, 2025

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Somebody needs to block the playing time of Michael Helman, Eddie Julien, Austin Martin, Mickey Gasper and Dashawn Keirsey. Those are AAA depth players, not MLB-caliber starters.

Let's just cut them all then. They serve no purpose. Their value will never increase.. you have declared it. Done deal.

OK... You've just cleared five 40 man roster spots. At least three current 26 man roster spots.

You've got 5 million to work with.

Bring in 5 guys.

DJL44 · February 1, 2025

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

Let's just cut them all then. They serve no purpose. Their value will never increase.. you have declared it. Done deal.

OK... You've just cleared five 40 man roster spots. At least three current 26 man roster spots.

You've got 5 million to work with.

Bring in 5 guys.

One of those "The roof is leaking so we should burn down the house" arguments.

They do serve a purpose: AAA depth. That's a real need. MLB players who are free agents usually don't have options remaining. They can't be AAA depth.

The problem is one of those 5 guys is currently GUARANTEED a spot in the starting lineup. That's how little depth there is for position players on the 40-man roster. They should absolutely be looking to add another position player to the roster. They should try to trade Paddack for another one. There should be no worries about "blocking" anyone.

tony&rodney · February 1, 2025

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The problem is one of those 5 guys is currently GUARANTEED a spot in the starting lineup

I was wondering which of Helman, Julien, Martin, Gasper, or Keirsey Jr. were "currently GUARANTEED a spot in the starting lineup"?

Doctor Gast · February 1, 2025

55 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Somebody needs to block the playing time of Michael Helman, Eddie Julien, Austin Martin, Mickey Gasper and Dashawn Keirsey. Those are AAA depth players, not MLB-caliber starters.

I agree with Julien & Gasper, They'll end up playing far too much. but not the rest. Gasper was projected 0 zero playing time w/ BOS this season. But because he's Falvey's new acquisition, he's on Nick's active roster. It doesn't matter if they're good or not they'll get every opportunity to play. That's what I'm talking about. & that's what I like to avoid.

DJL44 · February 1, 2025

28 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I was wondering which of Helman, Julien, Martin, Gasper, or Keirsey Jr. were "currently GUARANTEED a spot in the starting lineup"?

I am also wondering. They have to pick one of them. I suppose they can just rotate and play a different one each day, but they're still guaranteed to split 650 plate appearances between them. It's more likely that those 5 guys share 1500 total plate appearances.

All it takes is one position player on the injured list and they're forced to play one of those 5 guys. There is ALWAYS someone on the injured list.

Steamer Projections are out for each player

Gasper .247/.343/.372 715 OPS

Julien .222/.332/.365 697 OPS

Martin .246/.339/.345 684 OPS

Keirsey .237/.294/.358 652 OPS

Helman .221/.286/.355 641 OPS

Keirsey is the only one who can really play defense. Why do people want to "let these guys play" when the most likely outcome is 1500 PAs below 700 OPS and below average defense?

They could go with Keaschall and Rodriguez instead. The outcome for 2025 isn't likely to be any better but at least they would be developing someone who could contribute in the future.

OR they could use the resources they have to get someone who can put up an OPS > 750 or someone with a 700 OPS who can play premium defense. That's a 2 WAR improvement for this roster at a very low price.

Riverbrian · February 1, 2025

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

One of those "The roof is leaking so we should burn down the house" arguments.

They do serve a purpose: AAA depth. That's a real need. MLB players who are free agents usually don't have options remaining. They can't be AAA depth.

The problem is one of those 5 guys is currently GUARANTEED a spot in the starting lineup. That's how little depth there is for position players on the 40-man roster. They should absolutely be looking to add another position player to the roster. They should try to trade Paddack for another one. There should be no worries about "blocking" anyone.

AAA depth that won't perform according to you is not depth. They are just jerseys with names on the back of them. They are just going to be called up and slaughtered so what's the point. We will sign another Margot instead and keep doing it year after year.

Manual Margot has a .626 OPS last year. Kept his job all year.

Here are a list of rookies (over 100 AB's) who had a higher OPS than Margot had in 2024.

Blue Jays:

Spencer Horwitz

Leo Jimenez

Orioles:

Colton Cowser

Rays:

Junior Caminaro

Red Sox:

Ceddane Rafaela

Wilyer Abreu

David Hamilton

Yankees:

Austin Wells

Guardians:

Daniel Schneeman

Jhonkensy Noel

Angel Martinez

Kyle Manzardo

Tigers:

Colt Keith

Wenceel Perez

Parker Meadows

Justin Henry-Malloy

Trey Sweeney

Twins:

Austin Martin

A's:

Kyle McCann

Angels:

Nolan Schanuel

Astros:

Joey Loperfido (Also on the Blue Jays List of Rookies)

Rangers:

Wyatt Langford

Evan Carter

Marlins:

Otto Lopez

Connor Norby

Nationals:

Jacob Young

James Wood

Jose Tena

Andres Chaparro

Dylan Crews

Brewers:

Jackson Chourio

Joey Ortiz

Cards:

Maysn Winn

Pedro Pages

Cubs:

Michael Busch

Pete Crow-Armstrong

D-backs:

Blaze Alexander

Dodgers:

Andy Pages

Giants:

Tyler Fitzgerald

Jung Ho Lee

Padres:

Jackson Merrill

Rockies:

Hunter Goodman

I believe that is 42 total

Here's a list of rookies (over 100 AB's) who didn't have a higher OPS than Margot had in 2024.

Blue Jays:

Addison Bargar

Joey Loperfido

Orioles:

Jackson Holliday

Rays:

Curtis Mead

Yankees:

Ben Rice

Guardians:

Brayan Rocchio

Royals:

Nick Loftin

Twins:

Brooks Lee

White Sox:

Dominic Fletcher

Brooks Baldwin

A's:

Max Schuemann

Darell Hernaiz

Brett Harris

Nationals:

Trey Lipscomb

Cards:

Michael Siani

Victor Scott

Reds:

Noelvi Marte

Giants:

Grant McCray

Rockies:

Jordan Beck

I believe that is 19 total

So if you read through the entire list. That is a total of 60 Rookies (Loperfido took 2 spots) who received at least 100 AB's in 2024.

41 out of 60 were better than Margot. That is 68%. I'll take those odds at the major league minimum opposed to 4 million spent on below average production. Actually I would take those odds if it was 33% just for the possible discovery of someone who might help us out next year.

Now let's look at that number 60. That's how many Rookies got at least 100 AB's last year. 439 Players were given at least 100 AB's in the majors in 2024. So... 14% were Rookies. 14% is the opportunity afforded to Rookies to clear the low bar of 100 AB's while Manual Margot stays on the club all damn year.

There were 86 Players with less AB's than Margot got and a lower OPS than Margot produced.

There were 20 Players with more AB's than Margot got and a lower OPS than Margot produced. Only 2 were rookies.

That's 106 players - 19 of those players are rookies. 18% of those sucking below the Margot line were rookies.

That means 82% of those worse than Margot were not rookies. Take that with the 68% of Rookies performing better than Margot.

And... Well... I'm not afraid of Rookies and I really don't understand why you are.

tony&rodney · February 1, 2025

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am also wondering. They have to pick one of them. I suppose they can just rotate and play a different one each day, but they're still guaranteed to split 650 plate appearances between them. It's more likely that those 5 guys share 1500 total plate appearances.

All it takes is one position player on the injured list and they're forced to play one of those 5 guys. There is ALWAYS someone on the injured list.

Steamer Projections are out for each player

Gasper .247/.343/.372 715 OPS

Julien .222/.332/.365 697 OPS

Martin .246/.339/.345 684 OPS

Keirsey .237/.294/.358 652 OPS

Helman .221/.286/.355 641 OPS

Keirsey is the only one who can really play defense. Why do people want to "let these guys play" when the most likely outcome is 1500 PAs below 700 OPS?

They could go with Keaschall and Rodriguez instead. The outcome for 2025 isn't likely to be any better but at least they would be developing someone who could contribute in the future.

OR they could use the resources they have to get someone who can put up an OPS > 750 or someone with a 700 OPS who can play premium defense. That's a 2 WAR improvement for this roster at a very low price.

Looking at multiple guesses across several sites or even making my own lineup for projected players as a starting lineup, I have not seen anyone use any of those five players as starters. Its ok if you want those five to start. That is your choice. I won't argue.

If you are trying to suggest that the five names used will be rostered at some point and actually play in games, I won't argue with that either, but wonder why you state them as guaranteed starters. Teams use as many as 50 or more players in a season and the Twins have used at least 20 position players each of the last two years. So taking that information we need to flesh out who are the other half dozen starters, in addition to your five, for 2025 that does not include Jeffers, Vazquez, Miranda, Lee, Lewis, Correa, Castro, Larnach, Buxton, or Wallner. We know all of those guys will start a ton of games. I will guess Camargo, E. Rodriguez, L. Keaschall, P. Eeles, W. Holland, and C. McCusker. I'm not too confident that all of those guys will wear a Twins uniform but history tells us that 20 position players will start games.

Riverbrian · February 1, 2025

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am also wondering. They have to pick one of them. I suppose they can just rotate and play a different one each day, but they're still guaranteed to split 650 plate appearances between them. It's more likely that those 5 guys share 1500 total plate appearances.

All it takes is one position player on the injured list and they're forced to play one of those 5 guys. There is ALWAYS someone on the injured list.

Steamer Projections are out for each player

Gasper .247/.343/.372 715 OPS

Julien .222/.332/.365 697 OPS

Martin .246/.339/.345 684 OPS

Keirsey .237/.294/.358 652 OPS

Helman .221/.286/.355 641 OPS

Keirsey is the only one who can really play defense. Why do people want to "let these guys play" when the most likely outcome is 1500 PAs below 700 OPS and below average defense?

They could go with Keaschall and Rodriguez instead. The outcome for 2025 isn't likely to be any better but at least they would be developing someone who could contribute in the future.

OR they could use the resources they have to get someone who can put up an OPS > 750 or someone with a 700 OPS who can play premium defense. That's a 2 WAR improvement for this roster at a very low price.

First off... Projections are projections. Some of those guys will do better and some of those guys will do worse. If the projections are accurate... The GM job is going to be tremendously easy.

But... OK... Let's say the projections are right on the money. Take it to the bank.

You have just listed 5 guys who are projected to out perform Margot and Vazquez at the plate. Two of those guys on the roster for 1.6 million as opposed to 14 million.

Go take that 12.4 million you saved and get somebody to knock Keirsay's .641 off your list.

tony&rodney · February 1, 2025

Going back to the actual article, the Twins are not tied as tight to Twins Daily's $130 million as touted here all winter long. That sure doesn't register as news for me. When the music stops and everyone has a chair in St. Louis, the 26 person payroll will be somewhere from $120-140M, about what was expected last October. Spending $5 million on a tired vet just to spend the money doesn't excite me at all. If it excites others ..... ok.

DJL44 · February 1, 2025

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

We will sign another Margot instead and keep doing it year after year.

Manual Margot has a .626 OPS last year. Kept his job all year.

Do you want a list of all the potential free agent players they could have signed instead of Margot who were better than Margot? It's really long so I'd rather avoid making it.

That's what I want them to do - sign someone decent. Crappy veteran vs crappy rookie is a false argument.

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