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Now that kitchen stoves are cooling down after a long weekend of roasting and baking, baseball's Hot Stove is about to heat up. The Winter Meetings will get underway in Washington DC next week, and this is annually the most active period of the offseason.
Last year, Terry Ryan and the front office struck unusually early, completing a trade for Yankees catcher John Ryan Murphy just 10 days after the conclusion of the World Series. But in 2012, the Denard Span deal went down on November 29th and Ben Revere was sent out a week later. Two years earlier, the regrettable JJ Hardy trade was announced on December 9th.
With these precedents in mind, it's probably time to start honing our antennas for reports and tidbits relating to the Twins, and especially Brian Dozier. Unsurprisingly, the slugging second baseman's name has already been floating around in rumors. At the GM Meetings earlier this month, MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported that Dozier received interest from multiple teams.
In the Offseason Handbook, we extensively examined Dozier's most likely trade suitors, focusing on three different clubs with a distinct need and the means to get something done.
One of those teams is now likely out of the running. The Mets extended a qualifying offer to incumbent second baseman Neil Walker and he accepted it, so he'll be coming back on a one-year pact.
Another team, the Pirates, could enter the bidding but I have seen no public reports indicating that has happened yet.
It's the Los Angeles Dodgers that have been linked to the Twins and Dozier most substantially, and this comes as no surprise. They led off the "Dealing Dozier" section in the Handbook because they are clearly the most logical match.
Why Dozier Makes Sense For The Dodgers
Now that the Cubs have finally ended their infamous drought, you'd be hard pressed to find a club more desperate for a championship. The Dodgers fell just short of the World Series this year, and haven't appeared in the Fall Classic since 1988. They're bankrolling the highest payroll in baseball. Clayton Kershaw, the game's best pitcher, turns 29 next March and can opt out of his contract after the 2018 season.
It's go-time, and Dozier represents exactly what LA needs. Howie Kendrick has been traded and Chase Utley is an aging free agent, leaving second wide open. Meanwhile, their best right-handed power hitter, third baseman Justin Turner, may land elsewhere as he explores the open market.
For all of these reasons, the fit is unmistakable. There is also this wrinkle: facing a mandate to reduce debt, the Dodgers are apparently focused on cutting down spending significantly over the next couple of years. With his relatively affordable contract ($15 million through 2018), Dozier could carry added appeal.
Why The Dodgers Make Sense For The Twins
They are motivated buyers with some quality assets on hand. The Dodgers have reportedly had talks with the Tigers regarding Ian Kinsler, but Minnesota might be a preferable partner since they wouldn't require as much MLB-ready impact talent in return. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are transparently taking a long-term view, which would enable them to justify flipping Dozier for prospects who are a bit further out.
With that said, this trade can't happen without at least one player who is in the majors or extremely close.
Who To Target In A Trade
Mike Berardino (whose Twitter account has been a steady stream of Twins updates and notes, always appreciated during the slower stretches of winter), relayed a suggestion from an AL scout that Cody Bellinger might make sense as a centerpiece for a Dozier deal. The idea, evidently, is that the power-hitting prospect could eventually replace Joe Mauer at first base.
Berardino has also dropped names like outfielder Yasiel Puig and shortstop Gavix Lux.
They're intriguing possibilities. But, does it really make sense to build a Dozier return package around anything other than pitching? I would say no.
In our Twins Daily offseason blueprint within the Handbook, one of the moves we suggested was trading Dozier to the Dodgers in exchange for a package featuring Jose De Leon.
Presuming the Dodgers deem Julio Urias – who became the youngest pitcher ever to start a postseason game in October – untouchable, but De Leon is a worthy target. Like Jose Berrios, he is a Puerto Rican right-hander with a hard, spinning fastball and quality secondaries. Ideally, the two would form a potent young combo at the head of Minnesota's resurgent rotation. De Leon ranked 32nd on MLB.com's midseason top prospect update, and 25th per Baseball America.
Berardino, for his part, opines that De Leon's shoulder inflammation scare this year presents too much risk. However, there is little reason to think those issues, which hindered his early-season workload and contributed to him totaling fewer than 100 innings, were still affecting him in any way by the latter portion of the summer, when De Leon was eviscerating Triple-A lineups prior to his first MLB call-up. Alas, finding a premium arm with zero health concerns might be impossible.
If the Twins could strengthen their odds by adding a couple of other high-ceiling prospects to the mix, this move would seemingly be a no-brainer. But of course, it takes two to tango. So, just how motivated are the Dodgers?
We might find out next week. Or even sooner.
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