Twins Sign Ricky Nolasco?

[DaveW]

I'm glad you are happy Dave. I am as well. I won't be that thrilled if we don't sign another front end guy and settle for Arroyo/Pelfrey unless we saved that money to add a legit bat/catcher to go along with a guy like Arroyo.

As Rocket Pig said, they have a whole nother off-season to sign some guys as well, 2014 isn't a "go for it year" maybe the best approach is signing a low risk back end guy, shoring up the C position and seeing how Meyer/Gibson/DeDuno/Worley pitch, then sign a top guy heading into 2015.

 

I still would LOOOOVEEEEE to snag Bailey in a trade.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Well if we are acting like it doesn't really matter, then hold your horses. We have the 2016 and 2017 off-seasons as well to try and add a nice piece. I'm not calling this a "go for it" year. I'm calling it a "go be freakin' competitive for the first time in 3 years" year. Adding two pitchers of good quality helps this team flat-out compete. I guess I am confused what you think we need to save all this money for? As the next two years go by, we are going to hopefully have some very good, young cheap players in a Twins uniform. Most of those players are not going to be starting pitchers. That is why it is completely fine to have a couple solid starters signed for the next 4+ years. I'm not sold on the idea that by 2017, Gibson, Thorpe, May, Meyer, Stewart, Gonsalves are going to be stud fixtures in our rotation. Are you?

[DaveW]

Well if we are acting like it doesn't really matter, then hold your horses. We have the 2016 and 2017 off-seasons as well to try and add a nice piece. I'm not calling this a "go for it" year. I'm calling it a "go be freakin' competitive for the first time in 3 years" year. Adding two pitchers of good quality helps this team flat-out compete. I guess I am confused what you think we need to save all this money for? As the next two years go by, we are going to hopefully have some very good, young cheap players in a Twins uniform. Most of those players are not going to be starting pitchers. That is why it is completely fine to have a couple solid starters signed for the next 4+ years. I'm not sold on the idea that by 2017, Gibson, Thorpe, May, Meyer, Stewart, Gonsalves are going to be stud fixtures in our rotation. Are you?

If your expectations are to have Garza, Nolasco, and Hellickson as our 1/2/3 next year, you are going to be dissapointed.

 

Can't please everyone I guess

[beckmt]

Well if we are acting like it doesn't really matter, then hold your horses. We have the 2016 and 2017 off-seasons as well to try and add a nice piece. I'm not calling this a "go for it" year. I'm calling it a "go be freakin' competitive for the first time in 3 years" year. Adding two pitchers of good quality helps this team flat-out compete. I guess I am confused what you think we need to save all this money for? As the next two years go by, we are going to hopefully have some very good, young cheap players in a Twins uniform. Most of those players are not going to be starting pitchers. That is why it is completely fine to have a couple solid starters signed for the next 4+ years. I'm not sold on the idea that by 2017, Gibson, Thorpe, May, Meyer, Stewart, Gonsalves are going to be stud fixtures in our rotation. Are you?

I am sure that they will take several of the rotation spots, along with this years #1 pick. Go for it.

[Jdosen]

Like the move, don't love it until I see details on years and dollars.

 

He's had a low HR/FB rate the past 3 years, and I think pitching in Target Field will only help sustain that. One thing that somewhat alarms me is that he is always seeming to underperform his FIP and xFIP, as Seth stated earlier, but his ERA seems to be getting closer and closer to those numbers in recent years, so it may just be regression.

 

Any way, he is the best pitcher in the organization immediately, and it certainly is a step in the right direction to fixing this abomination of a pitching staff. And I would imagine we didn't get a bargain, so it's a clear sign the wallet is open.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins are a better team. It is encouraging that they were willing to take on a contract.

 

If they sign another pitcher, I hope it is a high upside guy. Meyer needs to be up early next year. Gibson needs to be in the rotation. If we are going to close the door to out of options guys like Worley or Diamond getting a longer look, it must be for a high upside guy. Not a Pelfrey or Arroyo.

[TheLeviathan]

4/52 would be great just as a change of pace for this team's approach to contracts.

[johnnydakota]

As Rocket Pig said, they have a whole nother off-season to sign some guys as well, 2014 isn't a "go for it year" maybe the best approach is signing a low risk back end guy, shoring up the C position and seeing how Meyer/Gibson/DeDuno/Worley pitch, then sign a top guy heading into 2015.

 

I still would LOOOOVEEEEE to snag Bailey in a trade.

 

Dont we have like 6 back of the rotation guys already? Nolasco is a #3-4 guy, now if we can add a #2 we have a good chance at .500+, as of now we have a shot at finishing once again in 4th place in the central , unless we have some luck ..Ham rebounds, Waldo and pinto step up,and Worely,DeDuno are healthy, but by adding another better pitcher who knows, sooner or latter our luck has to change ...doesnt it?

[johnnydakota]

If your expectations are to have Garza, Nolasco, and Hellickson as our 1/2/3 next year, you are going to be dissapointed.

 

Can't please everyone I guess

 

We are Twins fans....only in 87 and 91 ,we wernt disappointed =)

[notoriousgod71]

Now get Garza. He is the only starter (aside from Tanaka) that I wanted out of this FA class, but I'm pleasantly surprised that Ryan did something through FA to improve our team. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

[notoriousgod71]

I do like that baseball reference's similar pitchers include: Rick Reed, Joe Blanton, Joe Saunders, and Gil Meche.

[TheLeviathan]

I do like that baseball reference's similar pitchers include: Rick Reed, Joe Blanton, Joe Saunders, and Gil Meche.

 

If the budget or something else was a factor, there would be plenty of reasons to be down about this move. But frankly, we should all just throw those concerns out the window and be thrilled that the team's mentality it changing. They're actually using the resources at their disposal. They're doing more than sitting on their hands. They're using an avenue that is pretty much unprecedented.

 

They could have given him 7 years and 150M and I'd still be praising it. It's so refreshing to see them climbing out of their self-imposed box. Keep it up!

[Kwak]

A positive move! Dealing with the top priority of starting pitching first--and not being distracted by other positions--excellent. I am pleased, but my bar for being thrilled is much higher--and unrealistic. This is a start​, but only a start, this process must continue.

[Jim Crikket]

He's had a low HR/FB rate the past 3 years, and I think pitching in Target Field will only help sustain that. One thing that somewhat alarms me is that he is always seeming to underperform his FIP and xFIP, as Seth stated earlier, but his ERA seems to be getting closer and closer to those numbers in recent years, so it may just be regression.

 

I suspect that if the Twins sign a pitcher with a history of ERAs that "overperform" their FIP/xFIP, some would claim that guy isn't as good as his ERA would indicate. If someone wanted to give the Twins some credit, they might think that Jack Goin may have had some influence with TR in this case.

[Trevor0333]

I bet its 5/70 with a buyout on the 5th year essentially making it a 4/56 deal. Hopefully the buyout isnt too substantial on the 5th year.

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure why the money matters, if they have the budget.

[Dman]

This deal makes sense for the Twins he was one of top pitchers available so we can breath easier now. I doubt that the Twins go for Garza as he is likely to start a bidding war and the Twins never get involved in those. My guess is they go for Arroyo or Pelfrey maybe Kazmir. At least the Twins can negotiate from a position of strength now because they got one of the decent pitchers so anything beyond this will be icing on the cake and they don't have to be desperate. I hope they continue to surprise me.

[Brad Swanson]

4 years, 48 mil, 1 mil buyout in 2018 with some sort of vesting option. Very reasonable.

[Hugh Morris]

Well if we are acting like it doesn't really matter, then hold your horses. We have the 2016 and 2017 off-seasons as well to try and add a nice piece. I'm not calling this a "go for it" year. I'm calling it a "go be freakin' competitive for the first time in 3 years" year. Adding two pitchers of good quality helps this team flat-out compete. I guess I am confused what you think we need to save all this money for? As the next two years go by, we are going to hopefully have some very good, young cheap players in a Twins uniform. Most of those players are not going to be starting pitchers. That is why it is completely fine to have a couple solid starters signed for the next 4+ years. I'm not sold on the idea that by 2017, Gibson, Thorpe, May, Meyer, Stewart, Gonsalves are going to be stud fixtures in our rotation. Are you?

 

Sorry, but I find this unrealistic and very shortsighted. There are few good options available for one year contracts at this time-especially in positions of need (which I'll go ahead and define in this post as SP and SS-whereas C and 2B are unsettled and could use upgrades, and COF has questions beyond 2014). I'll go ahead and say that if you're looking for "superior to Nolasco", there are no players available on 1 year deals for 2014.

 

Which means that any signing will limit flexibility in signings for future years. Looking at the 2014 offseason (When the Twins have ~17m coming off the books between Correia, Doumit and Willingham, a young and minimum salaried core already in/shortly joining the bigs and the need to sell tickets without the ASG as an incentive), the following players are available (as of now. Any players with options have been redacted):

 

SP: Claytons Kershaw and Richard, Lester, Shields, Peavy, Scherzer, Bailey, Beckett, Josh Johnson

SS: Hardy, Asdrubal, Lowrie, HanRam

3B (if Sano can't cut it?): Sandoval

OF: Cuddyer, Torii, Aoki, Hammer, Rasmus

C: Russ Martin

 

I'm not stating the Twins would, or should, pursue any specific name on that list. I'm not saying that money not spent this year will increase the budget for 2015 and on. I am saying money not committed to 2015+ this year will be available for that purpose next year.

 

I'd much rather pursue Kershaw at the ridiculous sum he expects, or Bailey/Scherzer/Shields/Lester tier at 115/5 than Garza at the minimum 80/4 I expect him to get. I'd rather see the Twins be aggressive at getting one of the SS candidates and pick up a Peavy/Beckett type in addition than pay Garza that minimum 80/4.

 

And if you'll tell me that with the Payroll Ceiling and TV Money and absolutely accurate Forbes/Bloomberg numbers, the Twins can afford to sign Garza and one of these guys, I'll preemptively reply that while that's true, not signing Garza would allow for a premium arm and bat next season-when the contention window has clarified and team needs have become more evident.

 

The Twins made a nice splash with Nolasco (and finally quieted the "it can't happen because it hasn't happened yet" crowd when it comes to TR's spending), but with the number of teams looking for top of the rotation help this offseason and only Garza left fitting that category-I'd prefer not to hamstring the future free agency efforts by paying Garza whatever exorbitant sum he'll require. Even if it means 5 extra losses this season.

[Alex]

The Twins are a better team. It is encouraging that they were willing to take on a contract.

 

If they sign another pitcher, I hope it is a high upside guy. Meyer needs to be up early next year. Gibson needs to be in the rotation. If we are going to close the door to out of options guys like Worley or Diamond getting a longer look, it must be for a high upside guy. Not a Pelfrey or Arroyo.

 

This is exactly why I think the a team should never ignore FA or punt seasons. If Nalasco pitches similar to what he did last year, the Twins are a better team. Add another good FA pitcher and some things go right (like Meyer is up and Gibson pitches better), you suddenly are a very competitive team still with plenty of money to spend.

[TheLeviathan]

4 years, 48 mil, 1 mil buyout in 2018 with some sort of vesting option. Very reasonable.

 

Yup, really nice to see them throw that kind of money around.

[jcphitman]

Today is a day to celebrate! Not only did the Twins not go dumpster diving for once, they went out and got someone who was coveted. They set a record today for spending on an external FA no matter what the contract comes out as.

 

Ricky Nolasco may have not been the first choice of everyone. He wasn't my first choice (Garza is/was). However, he was up there. He was in the top 5 ... he wasn't even the 5th ... more like 3rd (I'm a Hughes apologist). Even though he wasn't the top name, he is by far the BEST pitcher the Twins have signed as an external FA since what ... Jack Morris?

 

The Twins did something today nobody ever thought they had it in them to do. They spent money. Maybe they had to pull it from TR's cold dead hand, but they did it. Kudos to Jim Pohlad for doing something that might make Carl turn over in his grave. Kudos to the organization for realizing the same formula won't cut it anymore.

 

There are questions about Nolasco. He's an NL pitcher. He's on the wrong side of 30. He clearly had a very good season in his walk FA year and you wonder if he's going to start regressing now that he has a major contract set. Those are all good concerns. However...

 

He's durable. He isn't a K master, but he's better than what we have. He's proven. He's a name other teams wanted. Most of all ... he's HOPE!

 

Another poster suggested Garza will get the Twins into a bidding war and they don't do those kind of things. Do you not think the Twins got into a bidding war for Nolasco? I think they for sure had to out-bid other teams in money, years, or both to get him. Why would Nolasco sign this early if the Twins didn't out-bid other teams right off the bat? Nolasco could have waited for Garza to sign and then really made a team over-spend maybe even more than the Twins had to here. Make no mistake other teams WERE in on Nolasco and the Twins needed to win the auction in order to get him to sign before Thanksgiving.

 

We're in new territory today. Like many, I agree we need to do more. We need one more pitcher. I'd love Garza as anyone else would. I'd even as close to as ecstatic if we got Hughes. However, being a Twins fans, I'm used to not expecting much. Most likely, Nolasco is our ace next year. I am convinced we WILL get another SP, but it'll likely be Arroyo, which honestly isn't that bad when you think about it. He's under Garza, Hughes, Kazmir, and maybe even E. Santana. However, he's better than Pelfrey, Capuano, and others like that IMO.

 

If we walk away with Nolasco, Arroyo, and Salty/AJ as our haul this year, it will be the most exciting offseason in Twins history bar none ... even more exciting than when we got Thome (who still had a lot to offer), O-Dog (who was a proven 2b and we got him when we knew we were close), Pavano (re-signed), and traded for Hardy.

 

We need hope. We need something to make us care. Nolasco represents both of those. He probably has no idea what his signing means to the fans of the team. I hope he understands. Had he re-upped with the Dodgers or went to a team like the Red Sox or Yankees, it would be a ho hum signing for those fan bases. For us, it's a whole other level!

 

We should thank Ricky Nolasco for signing here. We should thank him for saying he'd play here after 3 losing seasons. We should thank him for being living/breathing proof the team figured out how to spend money on a proven big time player for once (big time enough by our standards).

 

The Twins now have joined the other 3 teams in town for at least TRYING to win (not saying the other 3 teams are successful, but nobody can accuse them of not spending money to try and win). Welcome to the party, Twins. Never thought I'd see you here in my lifetime.

[Oxtung]

Like many others, I am happy with what this signing means more so than I am with Nolasco himself. On a championship caliber team, which is what I expect the Twins to strive to achieve every season, he is a #4 starter. That said, it is a nice upgrade to our rotation.

 

If the Twins acquire another pitcher it should be someone with #1 or #2 starter upside. The Twins have several candidates that could be back of the rotation filler at this point so it makes little sense to bring in an aging vet to fill out the rotation unless he also brings exceptional stuff to the table as well.

[glunn]

This thread is an example of what makes TD great. Lots of good ideas and friendly, respectful discussion.

 

I am especially impressed by some of the posts by Rookies. Keep it up guys. New voices and different perspectives are always appreciated, so long as you are respectful to those who may disagree.

[Oxtung]

Sorry, but I find this unrealistic and very shortsighted. There are few good options available for one year contracts at this time-especially in positions of need (which I'll go ahead and define in this post as SP and SS-whereas C and 2B are unsettled and could use upgrades, and COF has questions beyond 2014). I'll go ahead and say that if you're looking for "superior to Nolasco", there are no players available on 1 year deals for 2014.

 

Which means that any signing will limit flexibility in signings for future years. Looking at the 2014 offseason (When the Twins have ~17m coming off the books between Correia, Doumit and Willingham, a young and minimum salaried core already in/shortly joining the bigs and the need to sell tickets without the ASG as an incentive), the following players are available (as of now. Any players with options have been redacted):

 

SP: Claytons Kershaw and Richard, Lester, Shields, Peavy, Scherzer, Bailey, Beckett, Josh Johnson

SS: Hardy, Asdrubal, Lowrie, HanRam

3B (if Sano can't cut it?): Sandoval

OF: Cuddyer, Torii, Aoki, Hammer, Rasmus

C: Russ Martin

 

I'm not stating the Twins would, or should, pursue any specific name on that list. I'm not saying that money not spent this year will increase the budget for 2015 and on. I am saying money not committed to 2015+ this year will be available for that purpose next year.

 

I'd much rather pursue Kershaw at the ridiculous sum he expects, or Bailey/Scherzer/Shields/Lester tier at 115/5 than Garza at the minimum 80/4 I expect him to get. I'd rather see the Twins be aggressive at getting one of the SS candidates and pick up a Peavy/Beckett type in addition than pay Garza that minimum 80/4.

 

And if you'll tell me that with the Payroll Ceiling and TV Money and absolutely accurate Forbes/Bloomberg numbers, the Twins can afford to sign Garza and one of these guys, I'll preemptively reply that while that's true, not signing Garza would allow for a premium arm and bat next season-when the contention window has clarified and team needs have become more evident.

 

The Twins made a nice splash with Nolasco (and finally quieted the "it can't happen because it hasn't happened yet" crowd when it comes to TR's spending), but with the number of teams looking for top of the rotation help this offseason and only Garza left fitting that category-I'd prefer not to hamstring the future free agency efforts by paying Garza whatever exorbitant sum he'll require. Even if it means 5 extra losses this season.

 

There were pitchers better than Nolasco available this offseason on short term deals. Josh Johnson, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson have all signed already. That's a minor nitpick though.

 

2014's FA SP class looked much better before Adam Wainwright, RA Dickey, Jake Peavy and Matt Harrison signed extensions. It also looked better before Josh Johnson fell apart and Lincecum had another down year.

 

Off the top of my head I know that Cole Hamels and Matt Cain both signed extensions before becoming FA's in 2013.

 

Just because next year looks good now doesn't mean it will when it's actually time to start signing pitchers. Many people made the argument that there was no need to sign Greinke or Sanchez last off season because there was always 2014. Well here we are and now there isn't anyone in their class available.

[howieramone1406390264]

Like many others, I am happy with what this signing means more so than I am with Nolasco himself. On a championship caliber team, which is what I expect the Twins to strive to achieve every season, he is a #4 starter. That said, it is a nice upgrade to our rotation.

 

If the Twins acquire another pitcher it should be someone with #1 or #2 starter upside. The Twins have several candidates that could be back of the rotation filler at this point so it makes little sense to bring in an aging vet to fill out the rotation unless he also brings exceptional stuff to the table as well.

 

Nolasco is a solid #3 on any team not named the Dodgers and Tanaka and Garza would have a hard time squeezing into the #2 for a championship caliber team.

[Oxtung]

Nolasco is a solid #3 on any team not named the Dodgers and Tanaka and Garza would have a hard time squeezing into the #2 for a championship caliber team.

 

He wouldn't even crack the playoff rotations for the Tigers, Cardinals or Rays. He would be the number 4 starter for the Red Sox and Dodgers. It's questionable if he'd be a starter for the A's or Rangers as in the playoffs last season.

 

To be a championship caliber team in 2014 you need to have 3 pitchers who fit that "#1 or #2 starter" description. Then you're fourth starter can be a 3/4.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sorry, but I find this unrealistic and very shortsighted. There are few good options available for one year contracts at this time-especially in positions of need (which I'll go ahead and define in this post as SP and SS-whereas C and 2B are unsettled and could use upgrades, and COF has questions beyond 2014). I'll go ahead and say that if you're looking for "superior to Nolasco", there are no players available on 1 year deals for 2014.

 

Which means that any signing will limit flexibility in signings for future years. Looking at the 2014 offseason (When the Twins have ~17m coming off the books between Correia, Doumit and Willingham, a young and minimum salaried core already in/shortly joining the bigs and the need to sell tickets without the ASG as an incentive), the following players are available (as of now. Any players with options have been redacted):

 

SP: Claytons Kershaw and Richard, Lester, Shields, Peavy, Scherzer, Bailey, Beckett, Josh Johnson

SS: Hardy, Asdrubal, Lowrie, HanRam

3B (if Sano can't cut it?): Sandoval

OF: Cuddyer, Torii, Aoki, Hammer, Rasmus

C: Russ Martin

 

I'm not stating the Twins would, or should, pursue any specific name on that list. I'm not saying that money not spent this year will increase the budget for 2015 and on. I am saying money not committed to 2015+ this year will be available for that purpose next year.

 

I'd much rather pursue Kershaw at the ridiculous sum he expects, or Bailey/Scherzer/Shields/Lester tier at 115/5 than Garza at the minimum 80/4 I expect him to get. I'd rather see the Twins be aggressive at getting one of the SS candidates and pick up a Peavy/Beckett type in addition than pay Garza that minimum 80/4.

 

And if you'll tell me that with the Payroll Ceiling and TV Money and absolutely accurate Forbes/Bloomberg numbers, the Twins can afford to sign Garza and one of these guys, I'll preemptively reply that while that's true, not signing Garza would allow for a premium arm and bat next season-when the contention window has clarified and team needs have become more evident.

 

The Twins made a nice splash with Nolasco (and finally quieted the "it can't happen because it hasn't happened yet" crowd when it comes to TR's spending), but with the number of teams looking for top of the rotation help this offseason and only Garza left fitting that category-I'd prefer not to hamstring the future free agency efforts by paying Garza whatever exorbitant sum he'll require. Even if it means 5 extra losses this season.

 

Good job digging up that 2014 free agent list. Will be interesting to see which SP sign extensions and who tests the market after next year. I'm also on board with your idea why Ryan should not pursue any other long term Garza type contracts this offseason (and definitely won't pursue Garza himself in my opinion-- now there's a guy who can shake up a clubhouse and maybe not in a healthy way).

 

I'm not sure why you consider SS a position of need or what questions you have about center field beyond 2014 (which is Buxton's isn't it?) -- or maybe I read that 1st graf wrong. I am warming to the idea of signing a free agent catcher, however. Warming to it but not quite there. It would be ideal to see a younger guy win the job.

[johnnydakota]

Just remember if we dont spend it , they put it in there pockets and dont return it to the team the following year,Also by putting a quality team on the field you regain some of that 700,000+ fans that stopped coming, basically every 100,000 fans equal about 5 million dollars.

So if we can regain 600,000 ticket sales we will have an extra 15 million (1/2 of 30 million)

to spend on payroll in 2015 ....

[jokin]

Good job digging up that 2014 free agent list. Will be interesting to see which SP sign extensions and who tests the market after next year. I'm also on board with your idea why Ryan should not pursue any other long term Garza type contracts this offseason (and definitely won't pursue Garza himself in my opinion-- now there's a guy who can shake up a clubhouse and maybe not in a healthy way).

 

I'm not sure why you consider SS a position of need or what questions you have about center field beyond 2014 (which is Buxton's isn't it?) -- or maybe I read that 1st graf wrong. I am warming to the idea of signing a free agent catcher, however. Warming to it but not quite there. It would be ideal to see a younger guy win the job.

 

I'm there. Diomer Navarro would fill the bill as the FA catcher quite nicely, and well within budget (without the long-term encumberance), while waiting to see how significantly and quickly that Pinto makes his own impact felt.

 

I'm not on board with Half Measures, though. The poster you responded to re-stated the long-time fallacy that the Twins accumulate "rollover" money- while it's readily apparent that they do not do so-there's no such thing as saving up in 2013-14, for purposes of taking a shot at bigger names in 2015. The money is there, the commitment by Pohlad is there, this offseason, right now.

 

Now that Nolasco is in the fold, why not double down....roll the dice.... doing whatever it takes in insuring the winning bid on Tanaka?.....makes a lot of sense compared to trying to compete for more known quantities, Kershaw, et al, one year later. At least 3/5ths of your rotation would be set up for the arrival of the next wave. If Meyer and Gibson come around and establish themselves in rounding out the rotation sometime during 2014, the Twins could actually be a fringe contender as early as this coming season and can realistically plan to hit the ground running as a full-blown contender in 2015.