Article: Should Twins Offer Bronson Arroyo A Third Year?

[LaBombo]

So when considering expensive upper-tier pitchers who are 30, we're told that Terry Ryan would be, in his own words, "very cautious". But when shopping for an affordable back of the rotation starters, a three year deal for a 37 year old with weak peripherals is Kool and the Gang?

 

Lately Ryan has seemed bent on eroding his credibility, and in that sense a three year deal for Arroyo is a perfect fit.

[mnfireman]

Alright sports fans, how about we look at things with a dose of reality.

 

Gibson might make the team out of spring training, Meyer should be here around the all-star break, maybe sooner. Mays might get a September call up, but probably 2015, along with Darnell. The big guns, Stewart, Berrios & Gonsalves arrive 2016, and there are other names on the prospect list that will get shots during this time period.

 

Okay now, the team has to get to these kids and maybe have some veteran leadership to help guide them along. 3 year contracts would be best, but then you are getting Arroyo, Capuano, etc... older type pitchers that (hopefully) eat innings.

 

To get Garza, Nolasco, Santana, or Jiminez they would have to go 4 or 5 years, thereby postponing the arrival of prospects or putting the team in the position of having to try to trade them after 3 years, which sends a bad message to future free agents about signing here.

 

If the team (and I mean Ryan) sticks to past protocol, we'll see one (or two) of Kazmir, Floyd, Pelfrey, Hughes, Capuano and maybe Narveson on a one or two year make good deal and Arroyo or whoever will take 2 or 3 years guaranteed.

 

I personally would like to see Garza for 4 or 5, Arroyo for 3 and Kazmir or Pelfrey (preferably Kazmir because he is LH) for 1 or 2. This gives the team a veteran presence for a few years and allows a rehab project a chance to rebuild value while not holding back any prospects.

[jorgenswest]

Arroyo had a FIP of 4.49 leading to a WAR of 0.8. While it helps to change parks, he would have to face a DH in the AL.

 

This is a pitcher who over the last 3 seasons had a cumulative WAR of 1.7. Correia has the same total in fewer innings. It is not reasonable to expect he will do better over the next three at his age.

 

Steamer does project him for 1.7 next year (Correia 1.6).

 

Which pitcher will have more WAR over the next three years? Worley or Arroyo? I would bet on Worley though it will likely be Arroyo in the first of the three years. The Twins could DFA Worley while paying Arroyo millions.

 

Note: WAR numbers are from fangraphs.

[Trevor0333]

Hudson would be a fair comparison but he is going to a NL team with a pitchers park on the west coast who is a WS contender. If the Twins had wanted Hudson they would have had to go 3 years.

 

I think a 3/36 with a 5 mill buyout on the last is probably what it would take to get him. Whetehr you think that is an overpay or not I can't see it being less to get them to come to MN.

[Brandon]

Another way to structure the contract is as a 2 year 24 million with the 3rd as an option with a 4 million buyout or 12 million salary. that would make the contract a 2/28 which is going to be the highest 2 year average he is gonna find or a 3 year 36 million which he is gonna have to be real bad and have internal replacements ready to go for us not to pick up the option.

[jay]

Arroyo had a FIP of 4.49 leading to a WAR of 0.8. While it helps to change parks, he would have to face a DH in the AL.

 

This is a pitcher who over the last 3 seasons had a cumulative WAR of 1.7. Correia has the same total in fewer innings. It is not reasonable to expect he will do better over the next three at his age.

 

You're capitalizing on the one outlier and worst season of his career in 2011 by using 3 seasons. You'll say that's relevant because they are talking about a 3 year contract, but it's still an arbitrary cutoff that captures his one and only negative WAR season.

 

In a different light, I could tell you he's averaged 2.2 WAR every season for the last decade.

[jorgenswest]

I used baseball reference play index to find all 36 year old starters who started at least 28 games.

 

I found 28 pitchers. Those 28 pitchers averaged 3.2 WAR with 21 pitchers over 2. (I used BR WAR as it is tied to their play index).

 

[TABLE=width: 395]

[/TD]

G

IP

W

L

K

BB

>2 WAR

Age 36

[TD=align: right]32

[TD=align: right]204[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]147[/TD]

[TD=align: right]64[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

Age 37

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]176[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]125[/TD]

[TD=align: right]57[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

Age 38

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]137[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]97[/TD]

[TD=align: right]43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

Age 39

[TD=align: right]18[/TD]

[TD=align: right]103[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]69[/TD]

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Even in the first season of the contract there is a significant drop in pitchers who baseball reference values at 2+ WAR. By age 39, only 25% of the pitchers are at that level.

 

There were 8 pitchers who aged well and account for most of the age 38 and 39 stats. Those pitchers were Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Jamie Moyer, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells.

 

If the Twins put Bronson Arroyo in that class, they should absolutely give him a multiyear contract. If not, anything beyond a one year deal would be a foolish investment to appease the fans in hopes of generating interest and ticket sales.

 

Edit: Baseball reference has a similar pitchers through age 36 on Arroyo's page. While none of the 8 mentioned above landed on his list, several were on the original list of 28. John Burkett(#1) and Tim Belcher(#3) should be of particular interest to any team considering signing Bronson. They both signed 2 year deals following a solid 36 year old season. Burkett had two seasons worthy of a #5 starter and retired not making it to 39. Belcher was awful in his 33 starts for Anaheim posting ERAs above 6 at age 37 and 38 before retiring.

[TopGunn#22]

Not high on Arroyo, never really have been. I'd rather see the Twins target Kazmir and Hughes. (My pipe dream is Tanaka , but...it will never happen). I've got no problem with 3 year contracts for FA SP's. I just don't want to mess with 36-37 year olds that will be 40 by the end of their contract. We need S-Pitching...NOW. We will still need it 2-3 years from now when the young guns are either already up with the big club or soon to arrive. I realize that Target Field would play far more favorably to a pitcher like Arroyo than Cincy's. Still, I'd much rather spend my hard earned money on younger, American League pitchers like Kazmir and Hughes. Would Arroyo be better than what we currently have? Heck yes! But how low does Terry Ryan want to set the bar???

[Guest USAFChief]

I'd rather put the money into Garza. Arroyo has no chance of being a difference maker.

 

And I completely disagree with any theory that depends on Target Field somehow making any pitcher better than he actually is.

[old nurse]

Age 37 and 38 might not be a problem. The only way the third year should be added if it were of less value and had incentives, or if the total contract of three years gets you a bit above those contracts that are for two years.

[old nurse]

I'd rather put the money into Garza. Arroyo has no chance of being a difference maker.

 

And I completely disagree with any theory that depends on Target Field somehow making any pitcher better than he actually is.

 

No field can make a pitcher what they are not unless the fence is so far out so as to hinder the ability to hit a HR. Then you would need faster outfielders than Willingham and some of the others being played out there recently.

[howieramone1406390264]

I'd rather put the money into Garza. Arroyo has no chance of being a difference maker.

 

And I completely disagree with any theory that depends on Target Field somehow making any pitcher better than he actually is.

 

Arroyo has no chance of not being a difference maker.

[goulik]

The best thing about America is that Everyone is entitled to an opinion...

[Brandon]

I think a three year should result in an average annual value less than a 2 year contract just like the Vargas 4 year contract has a lower value then he could get on a 2 or 3 year deal.

 

I would prefer the 2nd pitcher be a lefty. I am ok with Kazmir or even Campuano. I think these 2 pitchers (Arroyo and Campuano) give the rotation a chance to be average with the bullpen making the overall staff slightly better than average. now if we can get average to slightly better than average offense so we can be a winning team remains to be seen.

[jay]

And I completely disagree with any theory that depends on Target Field somehow making any pitcher better than he actually is.

 

You make blanket statements like this, but also make statements about how the Twins should find guys who just haven't been successful in their current environment for some reason. Seems pretty contradictory.

 

I don't understand why you wouldn't want the Twins to find guys who maximize the physical characteristics of their home playing environment. It's pretty easy to see how those players can represent greater value to the Twins than other teams.

[jorgenswest]

You make blanket statements like this, but also make statements about how the Twins should find guys who just haven't been successful in their current environment for some reason. Seems pretty contradictory.

 

I don't understand why you wouldn't want the Twins to find guys who maximize the physical characteristics of their home playing environment. It's pretty easy to see how those players can represent greater value to the Twins than other teams.

 

Target Field will make Arroyo's personal numbers look better. It really doesn't help much in the win column. While Arroyo will be saved of giving up a few home runs, Twin left handed batters like Arcia and Mauer will also lose a few home runs. The net will be insignificant. If Arroyo's numbers are better because of Target Field, that illusion may help if the Twins are able to flip him in a trade. It won't help in the win column.

 

As always, USAFChief put it much more succinctly.

[TheLeviathan]

Target Field will make Arroyo's personal numbers look better. It really doesn't help much in the win column. While Arroyo will be saved of giving up a few home runs, Twin left handed batters like Arcia and Mauer will also lose a few home runs. The net will be insignificant. If Arroyo's numbers are better because of Target Field, that illusion may help if the Twins are able to flip him in a trade. It won't help in the win column.

 

As always, USAFChief put it much more succinctly.

 

That may be true on the macro level (I'm not convinced, I think that takes more analysis to determine), but in this context we're talking about Arroyo and the possible bang he brings for the bucks we shell out.

 

It just makes sense to target players that might thrive better than their skill-level because it represents money better spent. No one is arguing it's going to magically transform him. Just that he might get better results in this ballpark because of his tendencies.

 

It's just a smart thing to do. Utterly ignoring your home park tendencies is a good way to make bad player acquisitions if the fit isn't right.

[Guest USAFChief]

Target Field will make Arroyo's personal numbers look better. It really doesn't help much in the win column. While Arroyo will be saved of giving up a few home runs, Twin left handed batters like Arcia and Mauer will also lose a few home runs. The net will be insignificant. If Arroyo's numbers are better because of Target Field, that illusion may help if the Twins are able to flip him in a trade. It won't help in the win column.

 

As always, USAFChief put it much more succinctly.

Concur.

 

I'd add that you only play half your games at home, so even if there is some benefit, cut it in half.

 

I also don't think TF is the pitchers ballpark some assumed it to be based on SSS.

[Major League Ready]

Another way to structure the contract is as a 2 year 24 million with the 3rd as an option with a 4 million buyout or 12 million salary. that would make the contract a 2/28 which is going to be the highest 2 year average he is gonna find or a 3 year 36 million which he is gonna have to be real bad and have internal replacements ready to go for us not to pick up the option.

 

I had the same train of thought. $4M for nothing might seem like a bad business decision if it played out that way but it would be better than having $12M on the books if he just simply is no longer a compeitive SP. The same kind of deal might also work with Kazmir. You have to be a little skeptical of his resurgence but he might be a better bet given the age difference.

[Guest USAFChief]

You make blanket statements like this, but also make statements about how the Twins should find guys who just haven't been successful in their current environment for some reason. Seems pretty contradictory.

 

I don't understand why you wouldn't want the Twins to find guys who maximize the physical characteristics of their home playing environment. It's pretty easy to see how those players can represent greater value to the Twins than other teams.

And for the record, I don't think I've ever made the argument the Twins should pursue player X because of Target Field.

[Brandon]

I had the same train of thought. $4M for nothing might seem like a bad business decision if it played out that way but it would be better than having $12M on the books if he just simply is no longer a compeitive SP. The same kind of deal might also work with Kazmir. You have to be a little skeptical of his resurgence but he might be a better bet given the age difference.

 

After seeing the Vargas contract you have to wonder if there is a new trend developing going forward with 2nd or third tier players getting longer contracts at a lower annual average or if the bloated option fee to make for a higher AAV should the option not get picked up. I agree that Kazmir would be a better short term gamble based on talent but Arroyo is still more likely to throw 200 innings next year which is what the Twins are going to value over the talent level. Especially since the Twins overworked their bullpen so much last year.

[jay]

Target Field will make Arroyo's personal numbers look better. It really doesn't help much in the win column. While Arroyo will be saved of giving up a few home runs, Twin left handed batters like Arcia and Mauer will also lose a few home runs. The net will be insignificant. If Arroyo's numbers are better because of Target Field, that illusion may help if the Twins are able to flip him in a trade. It won't help in the win column.

 

Arcia and Mauer are already Twins. The impact of TF on them is completely independent of trying to sign a free agent pitcher whose batted ball profile would benefit from the characteristics of TF. The decision is Arroyo vs another FA.

 

As Levi pointed out, it's money better spent compared to signing a comparable pitcher with a different profile. No, the difference isn't going to win the World Series next year, but you certainly can't rule out a potential win difference.

[jay]

I'd add that you only play half your games at home, so even if there is some benefit, cut it in half.

 

I also don't think TF is the pitchers ballpark some assumed it to be based on SSS.

 

I'd argue the Twins need any benefit they can find... why would you ignore it?

 

No one here is saying TF is a pitcher's ballpark. It's actually pretty neutral across most categories -- except HRs for LHB. Hence, a right-handed pitcher with flyball tendences such as Garza, Arroyo, or Hughes might be a little better fits.

 

And for the record, I don't think I've ever made the argument the Twins should pursue player X because of Target Field.

 

No, but there's a pretty solid case to be made that you should...

[Guest USAFChief]

 

No one here is saying TF is a pitcher's ballpark. It's actually pretty neutral across most categories -- except HRs for LHB. Hence, a right-handed pitcher with flyball tendences such as Garza, Arroyo, or Hughes might be a little better ...

They might. Or we might learn TF really doesn't suppress HRs for LH batters.

 

I would rather wager on talented pitching suppressing runs.

[TheLeviathan]

They might. Or we might learn TF really doesn't suppress HRs for LH batters.

 

I would rather wager on talented pitching suppressing runs.

 

I think we'd all rather just go and sign Robbie Cano or someone whose talent speaks for itself. But when you're dabbling in the middle of the pack, identifying tendencies in players that might better fit your park (like Willingham fitting better than Kubel), then it makes sense to make better use of your money in that way.

 

You "only" play half your games at home, but that half can make a very big difference for many players. Home/Road splits are important to look at for that very reason.

[jay]

They might. Or we might learn TF really doesn't suppress HRs for LH batters.

 

And we might also learn that the moon landing really was a farce after all these years. We can choose to be skeptical of everything for ever, but I'd think we could commonly accept most things.

 

Four seasons of data says that it is true. If that's not enough, I'm really not sure what would satisfy that inner-skepticism of everything. 2020? 2040? Maybe global warming will shift the wind currents by then and you'll be right after all.

[kab21]

Alright sports fans, how about we look at things with a dose of reality.

 

Gibson might make the team out of spring training, Meyer should be here around the all-star break, maybe sooner. Mays might get a September call up, but probably 2015, along with Darnell. The big guns, Stewart, Berrios & Gonsalves arrive 2016, and there are other names on the prospect list that will get shots during this time period.

 

Okay now, the team has to get to these kids and maybe have some veteran leadership to help guide them along. 3 year contracts would be best, but then you are getting Arroyo, Capuano, etc... older type pitchers that (hopefully) eat innings.

 

To get Garza, Nolasco, Santana, or Jiminez they would have to go 4 or 5 years, thereby postponing the arrival of prospects or putting the team in the position of having to try to trade them after 3 years, which sends a bad message to future free agents about signing here.

 

If the team (and I mean Ryan) sticks to past protocol, we'll see one (or two) of Kazmir, Floyd, Pelfrey, Hughes, Capuano and maybe Narveson on a one or two year make good deal and Arroyo or whoever will take 2 or 3 years guaranteed.

 

I personally would like to see Garza for 4 or 5, Arroyo for 3 and Kazmir or Pelfrey (preferably Kazmir because he is LH) for 1 or 2. This gives the team a veteran presence for a few years and allows a rehab project a chance to rebuild value while not holding back any prospects.

 

I think you need to take a different dose of reality. I would be absolutely shocked if the Twins had TOO MANY good starters at any point in the future. Good pitching prospects close to the majors still have high bust rates. And a lot of those prospects that you named aren't even close to the majors.

[Guest USAFChief]

And we might also learn that the moon landing really was a farce after all these years. We can choose to be skeptical of everything for ever, but I'd think we could commonly accept most things.

 

Four seasons of data says that it is true. If that's not enough, I'm really not sure what would satisfy that inner-skepticism of everything. 2020? 2040? Maybe global warming will shift the wind currents by then and you'll be right after all.

 

Many were convinced TF suppressed HRs and offense for all hitters after a season or two as well.

 

If you believe TF will make certain pitchers appear better than they are, fine. I don't think that will happen, but even if I grant you that as fact, it doesn't address the primary issue spelled out above...it won't result in more wins becaus opposing pitchers will get the same benefit when they pitch in TF.

[bphat1]

People seem to be lumping a lot of pitchers into a couple of categories. Just because Vargas and Arroyo both soft toss does NOT mean they are the same pitcher. I'd MUCH rather have Arroyo at 3yrs for more money than Vargas for any amount of time at any amount of money. 3/$36M would be a steal for the Twins, consideriing it does not appear pitchers are lining up to come here. Now, this assumes we're still in on Nolasco, Kazmir (preferrably) and others. If we pick up Arroyo and then fill out the rest of the rotation with Diamond, Pelfrey et al I will be mighty disappointed. I wish those that are commenting negatively about Arroyo would actually watch him pitch. He would also be a great leader and teacher for our young pitcher(s) coming up...

[Tibs]

Would a third year of Arroyo at age 40-41 be better than some of the guys we have in the minors? Not the top prospect guys, but guys like Darnell, Baxendale, etc. I would rather see what those guys can do than have a pitcher over the age of 40. I'm not in favor of a third year.