Article: Should Twins Offer Bronson Arroyo A Third Year?

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2491-Should-Twins-Offer-Bronson-Arroyo-A-Third-Year

[Winston Smith]

It would seem better to add the extra year to a pitcher like Garza or Nolasco guys that are around 30 rather than to a guy that is 37. Even if that means offering 5 to the younger guys instead of 3 to Arroyo. The odds of getting your money back out of a 37 year old don't seem good, imo.

[diamondlars]

Well when the Twins are SERIOUS about signing Arroyo, then yes why wouldn't they sing him to a 3 year deal, would be dumb not to, but Twins can't afford him! He made over $16 million last year, so your looking at a 3 year/$50-$51 million just to talk with him! ain't gonna happen, other decent pitchers, Vargas signed a 4yr/$8 mil, johnson signed a 1yr/8 mil. Could have went with both those, but johnsons numbers looked terrible last year, so who knows how much the other good arms are going to cost. It's gonna get spendy, would be easier and cheaper for a trade with our great minors.

[Thrylos]

Common sense says no. But for one who signs Correia to a two year contract might make sense to do it.

A couple things about Arroyo (and the numbers in detail are here - at the end) : Compared to SPs in his draft class, like Halladay and Washburn, he went a relatively small number of games over 100 pitches and only in 13/385 games over 120. Also, he is not throwing hard. These two things make me think that there might be more life in his arm that in those of his draft classmates.

 

But 3 years? And (even scarier) would Arroyo be treated as the anchor of the pitching staff and the big offseason acquisition? He is a solid number 3 pitcher in a competing team. Nothing much. No thanks. If that's the best pitcher the Twins could get, I'd rather see Alex Meyer pitch.

[Thrylos]

but Twins can't afford him! .

 

Sure they do. Math:

2013 Revenue ($215M) plus $25 M in additional media revenue is $240 M

52% of that is $125 M.

The Twins have about $60 M committed including arbitration increases

Thus they have $65 M a season to spend.

 

They can afford him, but the question is, should they?

[pierre75275]

No. Give it to Kazmir instead

[SDTwinsFan]

I don't have anything against the Twins signing Arroyo. He would be our top starter today. That said, it seems that if you want to find success sometime in the future, it would be more wise to take a shot at an arm that may be dominant. If they are willing to spend over $10 million (12 or more even) over the next three years on Arroyo, I wish they would pump the brakes a little and consider using that money for Garza or Tanaka (disclaimer: I know nothing of Tanaka). No pitcher is a guarantee, but a ceiling above "back of the rotation starter" would be welcomed.

[twinsfan34]

I like how teams are starting to put together contracts on if you missed time, this year is voidable, etc.

 

I'm sure the Twins are smarter than me.

 

But I'd have something like, if Bronson pitches 200+ IP with ERAs under 4.00 for 2014 and 2015, aka his cumulative 2005 to 2013, then he gets a guaranteed 3rd year. If he doesn't, Twins can void/buyout that last year for $500k type of scenario.

[nicksaviking]

They shouldn't sign him to one year. The Twins need to deviate from their reliance on contact heavy pitchers, this stubbornness is really frustrating. Even if he is an upgrade, there are better upgrades available.

[Rick Niedermann]

I'd like to have Arroyo in the rotation. But a 3rd year is an awful lot of risk. I'd assume that if they sign Arroyo then a second pitcher of Pelfrey's ilk would also be added. I would rather the Twins combine the cost of those two pitchers and sign 1 above average pitcher like Matt Garza. He is young enough, dominant enough, throws hard enough to be a factor when the wave of studs starts coming up in June. And could be a 2 behind Meyer in 2015 and beyond. If we were going to go bargain basement soft tossers we should of been in on Vargas. 8mil/total commitment of 32 mil would of been better then say Arroyo 3 yr -36-38 mil. Guess I am beginning to think the Twins will do very little and Pelfrey will be back on a 2 year deal. Hope I am wrong.

[TheLeviathan]

They shouldn't sign him at all, but if that's the guy they're focused on and he's the one they want. Do what it takes. Even if he's a disaster by the third year it won't impact this team's ability to add or retain players.

[Rosterman]

Let's look at some reality.

 

Bronson CAN get a one-year deal from someone. The price...anyone will give him$6-8 million. You might not see anyone give him $14-16 million. So we have a good idea of a one-year deal going on.

 

X-amount of teams will jump at a one-year offer with an option on a second year.

 

Have any teams made a solid two-year deal, and if so, is that deal in the $8-12 million range for each year. Probably so.

 

One or three teams may be dangling an option year, but then the salary goes down.

 

So we are looking at a high of probably $36-40 million for Arroyo over three years (unheard of) and a low of $16-24 million over two years.

 

If the money is right, he signs for one or two years. If the money isn't, he is trying for that third year for some reason.

 

It is a game, folks.

[twinsfan34]

Arroyo is an annual leader among Gopher-ball Pitchers (HR allowed)...

 

I guess part of that is pitching 200 innings each year.

 

But who else has pitched 200 innings annually...how are his HR allowed numbers?

 

Home Runs

2006 NL 31 (2nd)

2007 NL 28 (8th)

2008 NL 29 (6th)

2009 NL 31 (2nd)

2010 NL 29 (3rd)

2011 NL 46 (1st)

2012 NL 26 (5th)

2013 NL 32 (1st)

 

Adam Wainwright...15-17 HR for 230+ innings

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml

 

Felix Hernandez...17-19 HR for 200+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml

 

Justin Verlander...14-24 HR for 200+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

 

Tim Lincecum...10-23 HR for 186+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml

 

Cole Hamels...19-28 HR for 200+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml

 

Roy Halladay...10-26 HR for 230+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml

 

 

I'd personally take a pass on Arroyo, unless it's $6-8M annually, max 2 years, unless there's an option, like I mentioned before. Has to pitch 200+ innings, ERA under 4, for the 3rd year.

[jay]

I'd personally take a pass on Arroyo, unless it's $6-8M annually, max 2 years, unless there's an option, like I mentioned before. Has to pitch 200+ innings, ERA under 4, for the 3rd year.

 

An IP requirement of some type is certainly reasonable, but 200+ each year is a lot to ask and I'm not sure the Twins could get under 4 ERA written in with that type of option either. Some level of decent productivity is assumed if the guy hits an IP mark that high.

 

I really like the vesting option idea and would be fine with a third year on those terms.

[jay]

I'd maybe consider 350 IP over 2 seasons for the third year to vest. Only 50 pitchers accomplished that over 2012-2013. Of that group, only 13 of them had ERAs over 4, but their average xFIP was below 4. I'd be fine with a third year if he hung with that crowd.

 

Interesting observation: that list of 13 includes 6 guys that are or were set to become FAs this offseason: Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Lincecum, Jimenez, Saunders, and Volquez.

[Brandon]

Arroyo is an annual leader among Gopher-ball Pitchers (HR allowed)...

 

I guess part of that is pitching 200 innings each year.

 

But who else has pitched 200 innings annually...how are his HR allowed numbers?

 

Home Runs

2006 NL 31 (2nd)

2007 NL 28 (8th)

2008 NL 29 (6th)

2009 NL 31 (2nd)

2010 NL 29 (3rd)

2011 NL 46 (1st)

2012 NL 26 (5th)

2013 NL 32 (1st)

 

Adam Wainwright...15-17 HR for 230+ innings

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml

 

Felix Hernandez...17-19 HR for 200+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml

 

Justin Verlander...14-24 HR for 200+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

 

Tim Lincecum...10-23 HR for 186+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml

 

Cole Hamels...19-28 HR for 200+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml

 

Roy Halladay...10-26 HR for 230+ innings...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml

 

 

I'd personally take a pass on Arroyo, unless it's $6-8M annually, max 2 years, unless there's an option, like I mentioned before. Has to pitch 200+ innings, ERA under 4, for the 3rd year.

 

The homers are not a big deal if they are solo shots. you can limit the runs by limiting walks and runners on base.

[twinsfan34]

The homers are not a big deal if they are solo shots. you can limit the runs by limiting walks and runners on base.

 

Yea. Agree.

 

I just think homers, with the Twins, can be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

 

Another angle if I may...I wonder how many of those HRs are from LH bats?

 

If a lot...those numbers likely would drop some at Target Field.

 

This makes a worse market for the pitcher, but better value for the Twins. As they can 'knock off' x amount of homers for LH each year that another team couldn't.

[noah_t]

I think it is easy to say that a free agent pitcher will get paid too much or will get one more year than they should. That is the nature of free agency. I think you need to accept a series of facts and sign a pitcher to the least bad deal you can find. The first fact is our starters had a 5.25 ERA last year. Alex Meyer is the only pitcher within our system that is likely to help us next year and that won't be until June. Correa should be average or a little below average and hopefully Deduno stays healthy. But we have 2-3 holes. The second fact is 25 teams finished with a better record than us for the third year in a row. So we aren't the most compelling destination. In addition, we need to get to .500 before we can realistically think about luring a very good pitcher here. Two guys at the level of Arroyo may help us get closer to that mark. Third, we aren't signing Tanaka or Garza, we should but it is not happening. Fourth, $8M three years from now for Arroyo maybe too much. Maybe it is $8M or $4M too much depending on what he has left, but signing Gavin Floyd for $4 or $5M next year will be $4 or $5M too much next year just as Pelfrey provided no value over PJ Walters last year. When you accept these facts, we need to spend more than a guy is worth. The price for free agent pitchers is not forecasted to fall anytime soon.

[jay]

Another angle if I may...I wonder how many of those HRs are from LH bats?

 

If a lot...those numbers likely would drop some at Target Field.

 

This makes a worse market for the pitcher, but better value for the Twins. As they can 'knock off' x amount of homers for LH each year that another team couldn't.

 

Agree -- 100%!

 

23 of his 32 HRs in 2013 were vs LH batters. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=978&position=P&season=2013

 

To account for home and away, we can look at the park factors for HRs as a LH hitter on the Twins vs the Reds: 89 vs 110. Reds were 5th highest, Twins were 3rd lowest. Even RH shows a difference: 97 vs 114. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&season=2013&teamid=0

 

You could reasonably assume Arroyo would have given up 5-7 fewer HRs as a Twin. I'm sure the Twins have noticed this. It also makes me like the idea of Phil Hughes for the same reason -- right-handed flyball pitchers.

 

They seem to have been targeting groundball pitchers even as recently as last offseason, but their playing environments say they should tweak that focus and maybe they've noticed that.

[Brandon]

Also Moyer is another comp for a soft tosser lasting past 40. He is a good comp because like Arroyo he didn't have the 200 inning seasons till his late 20's. meaning he had years to build up his arm and hasn't had too much stress on it. I think he'll last the 3 years, the question is if he looses 1 - 2 mph off of his already slow pitching will he still be effective enough to get the job done. He walks 1.5 per nine innings his strike out to walk ratio is way in his favor. I think he'll be fine.

[Brandon]

Also Moyer is another comp for a soft tosser lasting past 40. He is a good comp because like Arroyo he didn't have the 200 inning seasons till his late 20's. meaning he had years to build up his arm and hasn't had too much stress on it. I think he'll last the 3 years, the question is if he looses 1 - 2 mph off of his already slow pitching will he still be effective enough to get the job done. He walks 1.5 per nine innings his strike out to walk ratio is way in his favor. I think he'll be fine.

[JP3700]

Agree -- 100%!

 

23 of his 32 HRs in 2013 were vs LH batters. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=978&position=P&season=2013

 

To account for home and away, we can look at the park factors for HRs as a LH hitter on the Twins vs the Reds: 89 vs 110. Reds were 5th highest, Twins were 3rd lowest. Even RH shows a difference: 97 vs 114. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&season=2013&teamid=0

 

You could reasonably assume Arroyo would have given up 5-7 fewer HRs as a Twin. I'm sure the Twins have noticed this. It also makes me like the idea of Phil Hughes for the same reason -- right-handed flyball pitchers.

 

They seem to have been targeting groundball pitchers even as recently as last offseason, but their playing environments say they should tweak that focus and maybe they've noticed that.

 

Great post. It's not just the home runs with Arroyo though. He has always had a huge platoon split.

 

2013

Lefties OPS: .856

Righties OPS: : .602

 

Career

Lefties OPS: .831

Righties OPS: .665

 

So although Target Field may keep a few in the park, LH batters will still do a ton of damage on Arroyo. When you look in the division, as of now, the Royals have a few LH bats and the Indians are the platoon kings. Tigers and White Sox are RH heavy.

 

I love the idea of the vesting option on the third year. If I have to give three years guaranteed, I'd much rather sign Feldman.

[LewFordLives]

Tim Hudson got 2-years $23 million from the Giants. Why should the Twins give more to Arroyo? If they're going to focus on the 2nd tier pitchers, I'd rather they pursued Kazmir, Feldman, or Hughes.

[Alex]

I've seen that people say Target Field is hard on LHB. Can someone point me to data over time, and not just yearly park factors? Target Field has fluctuated each year in terms of overall park factors, and in the last two years they have been above 1.0 for runs scored and even for HR in 2012.

[halfchest]

Im not sure but i dont think u can use performance stats like era in contracts. They get around it with games played ip and bonuses for silver slugger cy young etc. i dont think u see any bonuses or vesting options based on era or homers etc. just games ip ab Im not a huge fan of arroyo but could handle him on a two year with vesting option

[lee_the_twins_fan]

Arroyo would make a good addition to the rotation in 2014, but hopefully by 2015 or 2016 we will have Meyer and May up, making Arroyo unneeded. A two year contract with a team option year for year 3 – or a combination player option and team option - or a vesting option for year 3 would be good.

 

I thought TR said he did not want longer contracts for someone on "the wrong side of 30"? Arroyo would certainly be on the wrong side.

[twinsfan34]

Agree -- 100%!

 

23 of his 32 HRs in 2013 were vs LH batters. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=978&position=P&season=2013

 

To account for home and away, we can look at the park factors for HRs as a LH hitter on the Twins vs the Reds: 89 vs 110. Reds were 5th highest, Twins were 3rd lowest. Even RH shows a difference: 97 vs 114. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&season=2013&teamid=0

 

You could reasonably assume Arroyo would have given up 5-7 fewer HRs as a Twin. I'm sure the Twins have noticed this. It also makes me like the idea of Phil Hughes for the same reason -- right-handed flyball pitchers.

 

They seem to have been targeting groundball pitchers even as recently as last offseason, but their playing environments say they should tweak that focus and maybe they've noticed that.

 

Great Research!

 

Thanks for doing that. Might be why the Twins seem to be so much higher on him than it 'seems' on other pitchers.

 

Because, that's an unreasonablely high amount vs LH...

 

Even that Batting average...

 

LH hit .292 off of him.

RH hit .215 off of him.

 

Versus RH...if his total splits...he'd be a top 5 pitcher in the game annually.

[jay]

I've seen that people say Target Field is hard on LHB. Can someone point me to data over time, and not just yearly park factors? Target Field has fluctuated each year in terms of overall park factors, and in the last two years they have been above 1.0 for runs scored and even for HR in 2012.

 

TF has indeed turned out to be pretty neutral overall despite the early concerns. LHB HR factor has been relatively consistent. BP doesn't give you 2013 data without an account, but here's 2010-2012:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1384402

[TABLE=width: 1032]

YEAR

TEAM

SIDE

Home PA

Away PA

Home HR

Away HR

FB Factor

GB Factor

LD Factor

PU Factor

1b Factor

2b Factor

3b Factor

HR Factor

Runs Factor

[TD=align: right]2012[/TD]

MIN

RHB

[TD=align: right]3220[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3133[/TD]

[TD=align: right]106[/TD]

[TD=align: right]90[/TD]

[TD=align: right]103[/TD]

[TD=align: right]102[/TD]

[TD=align: right]95[/TD]

[TD=align: right]90[/TD]

[TD=align: right]101[/TD]

[TD=align: right]99[/TD]

[TD=align: right]127[/TD]

[TD=align: right]107[/TD]

[TD=align: right]105[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012[/TD]

MIN

LHB

[TD=align: right]3023[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3047[/TD]

[TD=align: right]61[/TD]

[TD=align: right]72[/TD]

[TD=align: right]101[/TD]

[TD=align: right]100[/TD]

[TD=align: right]97[/TD]

[TD=align: right]104[/TD]

[TD=align: right]101[/TD]

[TD=align: right]99[/TD]

[TD=align: right]155[/TD]

[TD=align: right]93[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

MIN

RHB

[TD=align: right]3265[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3213[/TD]

[TD=align: right]83[/TD]

[TD=align: right]78[/TD]

[TD=align: right]107[/TD]

[TD=align: right]101[/TD]

[TD=align: right]93[/TD]

[TD=align: right]100[/TD]

[TD=align: right]105[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98[/TD]

[TD=align: right]103[/TD]

[TD=align: right]102[/TD]

[TD=align: right]100[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

MIN

LHB

[TD=align: right]2868[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2884[/TD]

[TD=align: right]43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]60[/TD]

[TD=align: right]106[/TD]

[TD=align: right]101[/TD]

[TD=align: right]89[/TD]

[TD=align: right]94[/TD]

[TD=align: right]100[/TD]

[TD=align: right]94[/TD]

[TD=align: right]94[/TD]

[TD=align: right]86[/TD]

[TD=align: right]97[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010[/TD]

MIN

RHB

[TD=align: right]3143[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3282[/TD]

[TD=align: right]63[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98[/TD]

[TD=align: right]110[/TD]

[TD=align: right]104[/TD]

[TD=align: right]87[/TD]

[TD=align: right]99[/TD]

[TD=align: right]101[/TD]

[TD=align: right]106[/TD]

[TD=align: right]99[/TD]

[TD=align: right]84[/TD]

[TD=align: right]96[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010[/TD]

MIN

LHB

[TD=align: right]2987[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2951[/TD]

[TD=align: right]53[/TD]

[TD=align: right]83[/TD]

[TD=align: right]104[/TD]

[TD=align: right]101[/TD]

[TD=align: right]91[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98[/TD]

[TD=align: right]103[/TD]

[TD=align: right]105[/TD]

[TD=align: right]116[/TD]

[TD=align: right]82[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[Thrylos]

Agree -- 100%!

 

23 of his 32 HRs in 2013 were vs LH batters. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=978&position=P&season=2013

 

To account for home and away, we can look at the park factors for HRs as a LH hitter on the Twins vs the Reds: 89 vs 110. Reds were 5th highest, Twins were 3rd lowest. Even RH shows a difference: 97 vs 114. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&season=2013&teamid=0

 

You could reasonably assume Arroyo would have given up 5-7 fewer HRs as a Twin. I'm sure the Twins have noticed this. It also makes me like the idea of Phil Hughes for the same reason -- right-handed flyball pitchers.

 

They seem to have been targeting groundball pitchers even as recently as last offseason, but their playing environments say they should tweak that focus and maybe they've noticed that.

 

Check his HR/FB against LHB in that link. 18.9. This is too high and will regress towards 10-11% which would take care of 10 or so of those 23 HRs. So he would likely give fewer HRs that the 5-7 less you are thinking... But I agree, TF kills lefty HRs, unless they are Thome or Arseeya

[Physics Guy]

Arroyo is an annual leader among Gopher-ball Pitchers (HR allowed)...

 

I guess part of that is pitching 200 innings each year.

 

But who else has pitched 200 innings annually...how are his HR allowed numbers?

 

Home Runs

2006 NL 31 (2nd)

2007 NL 28 (8th)

2008 NL 29 (6th)

2009 NL 31 (2nd)

2010 NL 29 (3rd)

2011 NL 46 (1st)

2012 NL 26 (5th)

2013 NL 32 (1st)

 

I'd personally take a pass on Arroyo, unless it's $6-8M annually, max 2 years, unless there's an option, like I mentioned before. Has to pitch 200+ innings, ERA under 4, for the 3rd year.

 

FYI

Ballpark Factors for HR

Great American Ball Park - Cincinnatti - 1.338

Target Field - 0.802

 

This might have something to do with it. I would think Arroyo would like the change.