Don't trade prospects

[Marta Shearing]

What sense does it make to trade prospects for pitching right now? Berrios, Meyer, and Stewart are on the way. Don't create new holes. Don't split up this promising group. Whether its LF or 2B, there will be a spot for Rosario. Sign free agent pitchers and flip them for prospects. The only time you trade prospects is when you're contending and looking to add the final piece ala Hicks & Ramos for Cliff Lee.

[Major League Ready]

Meyer is on his way but Stewart and Berrios won't be here for what might seem like an eternity. The FO is feeling the pressure from the media and declining attendance. They might appease the media short-term until the story turns to the obvious. The obvious being one good starting pitcher is not going to make us a contender anytime soon.

 

Let's hope they don't sell out our potential for a nice long run of good and potentally great teams for the sake of putting a passbale product on the field now. Pay big on 2-3 year deals or 4 years if absolutely necessary or go after a Tanaka. Our system is deep with very young talent. We will have the opportunity to trade prospects to fill holes 3-5 years from now.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sometimes people in here discuss our prospects as if they are going to be 100% success rate.

When you mention Meyer, Stewart, and Berrios, please keep in mind that with the average success rate of prospects, especially pitching prospects, that likely gives us one good pitcher, if we are lucky, not 3.

[Marta Shearing]

I'm well aware not all of these guys will turn out, but I dont trust Ryan to trade the right ones. Besides, it makes little sense to trade prospects for pitching, because you're just solving one problem and creating another. Sign free agent pitchers. Over pay if you must. Flip them for more prospects at the deadline. The only time I'd trade prospects is when the team has reached playoff contender status.

[howieramone1406390264]

I agree with the OP, that one out three "can't miss" starting pitching prospects ends up being a solid Major League starter and that is the area of the rebuild I'm uncomfortable with. I don't believe Ryan is anywhere near done accumulating starting pitching prospects and hope the Butera trade is a sign of things to come.

 

As far as trading prospects for starting pitching, I believe it's too early, but Ryan recently inferred the Twins have few if any untouchables, which is as it should be. IMO the only thing that can hold us up is starting pitching.

[Shane Wahl]

There is no reason to trade the top prospects. Some lower ones used to add in value to Doumit or Willingham would be a different story. I have a lot of confidence that the very top prospects: Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Rosario are going to make it and make it quite successfully.

[mnfireman]

Meyer, May, Rosario, Gibson, Wimmers, Stewart, Berrios, Gonsalves, plus a few others look like real prospects. So if 1 of 3 develop, the Twins are looking at 3 or 4 good major league starting pitchers in the next 3 years or so. It will be a crapshoot, but I think they could deal from amongst this group.

[Mr. Brooks]

Meyer, May, Rosario, Gibson, Wimmers, Stewart, Berrios, Gonsalves, plus a few others look like real prospects. So if 1 of 3 develop, the Twins are looking at 3 or 4 good major league starting pitchers in the next 3 years or so. It will be a crapshoot, but I think they could deal from amongst this group.

 

Alex Wimmers? Yeah, his 4.31 ERA and 77 minor league innings over 4 seasons scream "legit prospect".

I'd say ANYTHING the Twins ever get from Wimmers at the ML level would have to be considered a pleasant surprise.

Rosario is a 2B prospect, not a pitching prospect.

Gonsalves looked good over a small sample size, but he's not even a top 100 prospect, he doesn't even come close to having a 3:1 shot at this point, he's more like a 10:1 shot, if that.

That leaves us Meyer, May , Gibson, Stewart and Berrios that realistically fall into the 30% territory. Most likely we'll get 1 legit starter from that bunch, if we get 2 it will be a wild success.

The 3 or 4 like you say would be 75% or 100%, which would be pretty unprecedented.

[ashbury]

Sign free agent pitchers and flip them for prospects.

 

I always cringe when flipping is mentioned as part of the strategy. How many pitchers moved for prospects this year? Scott Feldman is the only FA pitcher I recall being traded, and he fetched a 27-year-old reclamation project starter and an OK 28-year-old reliever. If you're hoping for a Span-for-Meyer caliber of trade by signing a FA pitcher, it would be odds-against, IMO.

 

I'd like to see the team strengthened through FA signings, period. Roster management after that point should occur organically, not because the plan is to flip a particular acquisition.

[Mr. Brooks]

I always cringe when flipping is mentioned as part of the strategy. How many pitchers moved for prospects this year? Scott Feldman is the only FA pitcher I recall being traded, and he fetched a 27-year-old reclamation project starter and an OK 28-year-old reliever. If you're hoping for a Span-for-Meyer caliber of trade by signing a FA pitcher, it would be odds-against, IMO.

 

I'd like to see the team strengthened through FA signings, period. Roster management after that point should occur organically, not because the plan is to flip a particular acquisition.

 

Francisco Rodriguez.

[howieramone1406390264]

I always cringe when flipping is mentioned as part of the strategy. How many pitchers moved for prospects this year? Scott Feldman is the only FA pitcher I recall being traded, and he fetched a 27-year-old reclamation project starter and an OK 28-year-old reliever. If you're hoping for a Span-for-Meyer caliber of trade by signing a FA pitcher, it would be odds-against, IMO.

 

I'd like to see the team strengthened through FA signings, period. Roster management after that point should occur organically, not because the plan is to flip a particular acquisition.

Theo basically said the same thing in a recent interview. An interviewer asked Theo if the Feldman deals were a preview of future strategic moves, and he let him know that was not the case, it was just how it ended up.

[darin617]

Exactly never trade prospects! We love losing 90+ games every year. How else do you think the Twins will ever get an ace? I would not trade Sano or Buxton, maybe Rosario in a package to get a starter(ACE) in return. It is sad that KC is heading in the right direction and the Twins are sliding towards the bottom of the league.

[twinsfan34]

Even if we could land 2 Clayton Kershaw's for whatever combination of prospects, if our offense didn't improve, we'd still be just under .500 as a team. Trading Draft picks isn't going to bring back value that actually changes the team much.

 

If you want attendance to get better, they won't come to see "middle tier" Free Agents. I don't think signing Jacoby Ellsbury would bring up the attendance either.

 

It will take a big overall team turnaround. Getting impatient to try to 'compete' and turn attendance around in 2014 is only setting us up for long term failure.

 

High school prospects typically take 4-6 years to develop. Stewart, Berrios, et al. But they actually have higher payoff than college prospects as a whole. Also, most teams won't give away a 'significant' player for an A-level prospect.

 

.500 record or better in 2015 is a real possibility if their prospects develop. Our 2014 salary is already $68M. Irony is, we'll lose some salary by 2015 and probably be more talented (Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Meyer, May, Baxendale, Tomkin, Vargas, Hicks, Arcia, Berrios, Gonslaves, Stewart, et al).

 

The other hope is Willingham and a few other guys provide value at the trade deadline and bring back a AA prospect or higher.

 

The Tampa Bay Rays were built on the draft, it took about 6-8 years to make it happen though. 2014 will be year 4 of the Terry Ryan regime, and he got a gift from Bill Smith in his signing of Miguel Sano. Year 4 is when a GM's influence begins to take influence. As you start to see players he's acquired account for about 20% of the roster. By year 5 (2015), should be around 50%. Baseball is unlike any other sport, you need time. Football and basketball can see franchises turned around in one pick. In baseball you don't see a LeBron James or David Robinson or Tim Duncan or Andrew Luck or RG III type of affect.

 

But I love the game.

[ThePuck]

How is our 2014 salary already 68M?

[Oxtung]

Alex Wimmers? Yeah, his 4.31 ERA and 77 minor league innings over 4 seasons scream "legit prospect".

I'd say ANYTHING the Twins ever get from Wimmers at the ML level would have to be considered a pleasant surprise.

Rosario is a 2B prospect, not a pitching prospect.

Gonsalves looked good over a small sample size, but he's not even a top 100 prospect, he doesn't even come close to having a 3:1 shot at this point, he's more like a 10:1 shot, if that.

That leaves us Meyer, May , Gibson, Stewart and Berrios that realistically fall into the 30% territory. Most likely we'll get 1 legit starter from that bunch, if we get 2 it will be a wild success.

The 3 or 4 like you say would be 75% or 100%, which would be pretty unprecedented.

 

He might have been talking about Randy Rosario who pitched very well for Elizabethton this season. Though if he was then he probably should also have tossed Yorman Landa and Felix Jorge onto his list as well. Perhaps Lewis Thorpe too.

 

Gonsalves was not going to be a top 100 prospect because he wasn't a 1st round draft pick. It is still entirely possible he could end up there in future seasons.

[iastfan112]

How is our 2014 salary already 68M?

 

Actual obligations are lower, at 46 million. If the Twins only made move within the organization this offseason the payroll would be in that ballpark(68 is 2-3 million or so high imo).

[diehardtwinsfan]

This isn't the time to trade prospects. There is a time for that, when you know what you have and you are a piece or two short, but when you need to acquire 10 to 15 pieces, trading off the guys who could be future pieces for some help now is kind of silly. It's a guaranteed way to have lots more 90 loss seasons.

 

Unfortunately, the Twins are in a position right now where the only thing they can do is wait for the guys coming up and perhaps go out and get a few pieces that they know they will need.

[spideyo]

I think it greatly depends on what position you are looking at.

 

At this point, no pitching prospects should be traded. In fact, I would say we should be trading any pitching prospects until we have a minimum of 7-8 A level pitchers in the big leagues (which may not happen for years). You never know when you will get a TJ case, or a late bloomer, or a guy who does better in the pen then starting (see Perkins, Swarzak)

 

Any 1B only guys should be dangled. We certainly don't have a sure thing in Parmelee or Collabello, but the future could hold Mauer, Plouffe, or Sano at 1B. Plus there are always old guys who can still hit but can't field much beyond 1B on the FA market.

 

If you believe that Dozier can play like he did in the second half for years to come, and that Rosario is destined for 2B only, we might as well float his name out there and see what we can get.

 

3B/SS are still too unsettled to send off anybody.

 

The OF has a lot of good prospects in Hicks, Pressly, Arcia, Buxton, Walker, Keppler, and probably a bunch of guys I don't know. Don't trade Buxton and don't trade anyone you think will be a MLB starter in 2014, but beyond that, if the deal is right we could afford to lose one or two.

 

Catchers of course, totally depends on if/when Mauer stops catching completely. Of all our prospects, Pinto might be the most likely to get a MLB ready arm (Buxton and Sano are still too far away), but would also be the riskiest. If Mauer is the primary catcher for the rest of his contract, and you send Pinto as part of a deal to get an Ace, you look like a genius. Then again, you could have a repeat of the Ramos trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm well aware not all of these guys will turn out, but I dont trust Ryan to trade the right ones.

 

Because if there's one thing Ryan has done in his career, it's trading prospects who flourish in another organization.

 

Oh, wait.

[twinsfan34]

How is our 2014 salary already 68M?

 

You're right. It's not $68M yet.

 

It's $46M for 6 players so far. We will have to 34 players to fill out the 40-Man roster and other subsequent minor league contracts purchased who might exceed that 40 man roster.

 

The major league minimum salary for 2014 is $500,000. So 34 players will cost an additional $17M at a minimum. Puts us at $63M.

 

Sorry, I'm not sure why I said $68M. But if we sign anybody over the minimum, it'll add to that $63M number.

[twinsfan34]

Actual obligations are lower, at 46 million. If the Twins only made move within the organization this offseason the payroll would be in that ballpark(68 is 2-3 million or so high imo).

 

Thanks for explaining that iastfan112 - sorry I wasn't more clear earlier.

[mnfireman]

He might have been talking about Randy Rosario who pitched very well for Elizabethton this season. Though if he was then he probably should also have tossed Yorman Landa and Felix Jorge onto his list as well. Perhaps Lewis Thorpe too.

 

Gonsalves was not going to be a top 100 prospect because he wasn't a 1st round draft pick. It is still entirely possible he could end up there in future seasons.

 

Yes, those were all names that I saw and included as "a few others". I didn't want to sound argumentative with Mr. Brooks (I saw the movie, he's a scary dude:)), so I hoped somebody else might help me out.

While its true that most or all of these prospects may not pan out, I am getting tired of 27-30 year old soft tossers continually being trotted out there and we are just supposed to take this because its the Twins Way. Look at all the other teams with 25 year old and younger starters having success. I understand the importance of not advancing these kids too fast, but if the better coaches are at the higher levels, then these kids shouldn't beheld back for the sake of holding them back. I sometimes think this organization hinders there own prospects development by advancing them too slowly (i.e. making them do a whole season at each level unless they are a "super" prospect).

And if our better coaches are not at the higher levels than this organization is in a bigger mess than I, or most of us, would think.

[IdahoPilgrim]

You're right. It's not $68M yet.

 

It's $46M for 6 players so far. We will have to 34 players to fill out the 40-Man roster and other subsequent minor league contracts purchased who might exceed that 40 man roster.

 

The major league minimum salary for 2014 is $500,000. So 34 players will cost an additional $17M at a minimum. Puts us at $63M.

 

Sorry, I'm not sure why I said $68M. But if we sign anybody over the minimum, it'll add to that $63M number.

 

Except that most players on the 40-man but not on the 25-man won't get major minimum, since they won't be in the major leagues. I think they are guaranteed about $70K/year if they have any MLB experience and about half that if they don't.

[Marta Shearing]

Because if there's one thing Ryan has done in his career, it's trading prospects who flourish in another organization.

 

Oh, wait.

How is it that you reserve the right to be so antagonistic?

[Marta Shearing]

This isn't the time to trade prospects. There is a time for that, when you know what you have and you are a piece or two short, but when you need to acquire 10 to 15 pieces, trading off the guys who could be future pieces for some help now is kind of silly. It's a guaranteed way to have lots more 90 loss seasons.

 

Unfortunately, the Twins are in a position right now where the only thing they can do is wait for the guys coming up and perhaps go out and get a few pieces that they know they will need.

Couldnt agree more. I would not part with any prospects at this point, because you dont know who's gonna turn out and who wont. Hoard them all while rebuilding, but dont be afraid to do a hicks/ramos for Cliff Lee when the time is right.

[old nurse]

Francisco Rodriguez.

 

The prospect received was nothing great.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How is it that you reserve the right to be so antagonistic?

 

It wasn't antagonistic. It was poking fun of not trusting Ryan to trade away the right prospects, the one thing that he has a nearly unimpeachable track record of doing right.

[gunnarthor]

How is it that you reserve the right to be so antagonistic?

 

He's a mod. Just ignore him.

[TheLeviathan]

It wasn't antagonistic. It was poking fun of not trusting Ryan to trade away the right prospects, the one thing that he has a nearly unimpeachable track record of doing right.

 

You know we go way back and I respect you Brock, but this line is becoming increasingly unclear. A lot less than that has been grounds for private messages.

 

As to this issue, I'm not so sure what the angst is about. Ryan has no track record of dealing significant prospects at all. So there is no past success or failure that anyone should be worried about because, if history has taught us anything, this is a problem we won't have to worry about.

[ThePuck]

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