What willl it take to make this year a successful year?

[Winston Smith]

Where did the "5 year rebuild" come from? I would really like to see where Ryan said he was on a 5 yr rebuild.

I've always heard Ryan say we should compete this year and be playing meaningful games this fall. However, I guess if meaningful means competing for a higher draft pick he would be correct.

[LaBombo]

I'd actually like to see a cogent argument that specifies how the game has passed Gardy and Andy by. I'm not opposed to letting Anderson go with the setback of so many young pitchers, but the evidence against Gardy seems spurious and cynic-laden.

 

More than that, I'd like to know what in particular a new manager exactly brings, whether it be Molitor* or whomever, there needs to be a better, more exacting argument than change for change's sake.

 

*I could make an argument for Molitor myself, given his history with the organization, his major league success, his general gravitas throughout baseball, and his relationship with the emerging core. But that's mostly based on myth and sheepish somethings-got-to-give logic.

Interesting that you interpreted a picture meant to represent the simple concept of a 'do-over' being what the Twins would need to make the season successful as a "spurious" and "cynic-laden" attack on Gardenhire and Anderson. But since you brought it up...

 

I'm not even going to address the need to replace Anderson, given the three consecutive seasons of failure to help even one young starter out of more than a dozen options achieve sustainable success. It's not all his fault, but failure to hold him accountable will just cause the organization to slide further toward operating more as an entertainment-oriented enterprise rather than a competitive one.

 

As for replacing Gardenhire, well, you couldn't possibly be more wrong about the need for a better argument than change for the sake of change. In fact, there doesn't really need to be much of an argument at all.

 

The Twins are on pace to rack up a third consecutive 90+ loss season. 92 losses on the pythag calculator, but the calculator doesn't know that 17 of the Twins' 21 remaining games are against teams with winning records. Even if they steal a couple of extra wins to finish 74-88, they will have played like a 90-loss team for pretty much the entire season.

 

As I've pointed out before, the only non-expansion manager in the past 30 years to stay employed after 3 90-loss seasons is Tom Kelly, who owns more World Series rings than Gardenhire does playoff series wins.

 

So it's not really up to me to justify firing Gardy. It's actually up to you to defend Gardenhire as a historically great manager whose previous accomplishments merit his retention despite a string of failures that has gotten all but one manager in the past 30 years fired.

 

Or you can argue that the dropoff in talent has been so historically awful that Gardenhire gets a pass for the last three years. At which point I would hope you would include a compelling case that everyone above Gardy up to and including St. Peter should be purged in a complete house-cleaning befitting such a historical debacle.

 

For what it's worth, I agree with your assessment about Molitor, and he would be my choice to replace Gardenhire. Whoever it is, barring a crazy win streak the Twins will either have a new manager next season, or an epically fortunate one.

[LaBombo]

Terry Ryan is 22 months into a 5 year rebuild. At 41 months it will make a lot more sense to everyone. Many on the board can already see it and the national media is picking it up. I think the last words I saw were "massive threat" in 2 or 3 years.

Ryan had a chance to say something rational about the course the franchise is taking to rebuild, but instead he chose to sell hope with the "meaningful games" mantra. Which is fine, marketing is a big part of the business, and he can't very well say 'we'll be bad'.

 

But in the absence of a vocal commitment to rebuilding as a priority over scratching out a few extra meaningless wins, we have to judge Ryan's rebuilding roadmap on his actions alone.

 

And except for the Span and Revere trades, which were smart, it appears that Ryan's idea of rebuilding mostly consists so far of waiting for prospects to mature. That's a big part of the future, but it's hard to see that getting it done without acquiring talent elsewhere as well.

[Pius Jefferson]

With the amount of money coming off the books and possibly moving Doumit and Willingham being active in free agent might be a necessity this off-season. Unless of course the Twins are okay with a 60 something dollar payroll.

[howieramone1406390264]

Ryan had a chance to say something rational about the course the franchise is taking to rebuild, but instead he chose to sell hope with the "meaningful games" mantra. Which is fine, marketing is a big part of the business, and he can't very well say 'we'll be bad'.

 

But in the absence of a vocal commitment to rebuilding as a priority over scratching out a few extra meaningless wins, we have to judge Ryan's rebuilding roadmap on his actions alone.

 

And except for the Span and Revere trades, which were smart, it appears that Ryan's idea of rebuilding mostly consists so far of waiting for prospects to mature. That's a big part of the future, but it's hard to see that getting it done without acquiring talent elsewhere as well.

 

The biggest part of any mid-market rebuild is waiting for the top draft choices to mature. The Meyer and May trades helped, and the Butera and Morneau trades will yield small pieces. I'm guessing similar small pieces will be picked up this winter and/or next trade deadline. I still think Ryan will find a top starting pitcher somewhere, but I'm not uncertain he can't wait until the winter of 2014/2015. By then he may have the right pieces to trade.

[Kobs]

The Twins need their bad players to be bad. Trevor Plouffee going off and hitting five homers in a week will set the team back another year at one position.

[John Bonnes]

I don't there's anything that can happen at this point that would make 2013 a success. There are some positive developments, but overall, the failure outweighs the success by a large margin.

 

I've been meaning to write about this, but haven't had a chance. Let's break this down a bit:

 

If the primary purpose of the season was to develop players for future years, let's take a look at the players by their importance and see if they developed or not.

 

Here are the eleven players that I would consider most important for the future of the franchise, meaning these are players with high ceilings who are most important to develop:

 

Arcia

Buxton

Diamond

Hicks

Kyle Gibson

Mauer

May

Meyer

Perkins

Sano

Worley

 

To be honest, I'm not sure if Worley, May and Diamond belong in that list or the list below, but let's keep them in there since the rotation is such an area of weakness. I count:

- 3 that took a clear step forward - Arcia, Buxton, Sano

- 5 that made sufficient progress or stayed on track - Gibson, Meyer, May, Mauer, Perkins

- 3 that didn't - Worley, Diamond, Hicks

 

So that's not a bad for the organization. (And it doesn't include adding another such guy - Kohl Stewart.)

 

If I look at the next group of players - players that have a chance at being a regular contributor, it's not too bad either:

 

- 4 took steps forward - Dozier, Deduno (pending his shoulder), Fien and Rosario

- 2 are still on track - Burton and Florimon (kinda)

- 3 disappointed - Parmelee, Plouffe, Hendriks

 

And that doesn't count several names who I wouldn't have put on the list, but who also took steps forward - Thielbar, Colabello, Tonkin, Herrman and Josmil Pinto.

 

I don't know if anyone, including Terry Ryan, would qualify this year as a success. But I think more progress has been made than is generally acknowledged.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know if anyone, including Terry Ryan, would qualify this year as a success. But I think more progress has been made than is generally acknowledged.

 

The problem with your argument John is that you're talking organizational and most of us are talking about the big league club. The farm is doing nicely for many reasons, but the big league club had a horrific season. Just change a few things here and it looks bleak:

 

- 4 that took a clear step forward - Deduno, Fien, Dozier, Perkins

- 3 that stayed on track - Mauer, Burton, Pelfrey

- 10 that didn't - Worley, Diamond, Hicks, Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Plouffe, Parmelee, Hendricks, Correia

 

Those 10 are all players we had reasonable hopes would take a step forward in their ability to contribute or at least generate some sort of value. It was pretty much a total failure on those fronts.

[howieramone1406390264]

Very good job John! I don't think anyone can call this year a success, but once it's determined a rebuild is necessary, unless you have the financial wherewithal to attempt to spend your way out of it, you can't avoid a year like this, or last year for that matter. I figured out a massive rebuild was needed in April of 2012, and I'm very surprised with where they are right now. No organization ever wants to rebuild, but the alternative is endless mediocrity at best.

[Shane Wahl]

I would cut Thomas, Roeincke, Ramirez, Bernier right now and bring in three guys like Beresford, Biigley and even Aaron Thompson to see what they can bring to the team. I would also promote Santana, Hermsen and DeVries. I want to see guys who might contribute in 2014 or beyond. I know some don't deserve to be added until November, but the Twins should take any advance looks at the fringe guys who can replace fringe guys. Have to decide if they are worth keeping around. If you don't think they belong, then make the moves now and add guys that will belong. If you need to cut Hermsen or DeVries, do it and let us see the Deans or Logans.

 

 

And if you aren't going to play Willingham and Doumit, who need all the help they can get to get to tradeable status, maybe you should've just dumped one or both when you had the opportunity. Never makes sense to let big money sit on the bench.

 

I wonder if a change of scenery would be good for Gardy, yet I'd also like to see him continue to manage and retire as an advisor similar to Tom Kelly, being Mr. Twin for life. But he has this partnership with Anderson that needs to be broken.

 

I also want to see some plans by management to promote baseball as baseball. We don't need to go to a Twins game because Target Field is outside and beautiful.We don;t need to go to a Twins game because it is the greenest stadium in baseball. We don't need to have the food advertised bigger than the players. We don't need to buy tickets so we can get preferential treatment for the overpriced All-Star Game, which is great, but can't wait to see the mess it creates in downtown Minneapolis. Maybe MLB will spend tons of money and help the Pohlads develop that parking lot into a mall outside the stadium.

 

I want players to cheer.

 

Maybe Diamond will be a gem for four games at season's end here.

 

I want major league baseball back.

 

As usual, I like how you think, even if some of the details I disagree with. I basically agree with cutting those players straight up (save for probably Wilkin if he can just be DFAd eventually). What you basically call for is an actual evaluation of the bottom 1/8 or so of the 40-man and a working through of the filler filling the top of the organization.

 

And I am not going to listen to "Rochester needs to be competitive . . . "--guess what they were finally this year and much of that has to do not with filler, but with prospects who happened to be playing there. Evan Bigley has to be looking at the likes of Clete Thomas and Alex Presley (who is already turning into a pumpkin, by the way) with shock. I don't think that highly of Bigley, even, but the continued filler brought in . . .

 

Speaking of . . . Doug Bernier instead of Deibinson Romero . . . ??? Like, wha? With Escobar on the roster, there is no reason to not bring up another bat like Romero to get a taste.

 

I don't worry too much about Beresford and Santana--they should just be manning the infield with Rosario and Sano in Rochester to begin 2014 and be ready to take the next step (each of them has one more step, I think, before being ready to contribute to the Twins) and it just seems clear that BJ Hermsen is about done--he certainly could be removed from the 40-man without any worries. He is a poor man's RH Andrew Albers . . .

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Dakota Watts up in order to see how deep the bullpen could potentially be and how many guys the Twins could swap in trades (Burton, Swarzak, and Fien at some point into next season).

 

Martis and Fryer crack me up. I guess with Doumit not catching it makes some sense for an emergency catcher.

[Shane Wahl]

John's point is worth noting even if limiting it to the Twins, but I worry about the Twins keeping oldsters like Willingham and Doumit around well into next year instead of turning the roster over (OR the whole year??). Same for this OF filler in Presley and Thomas. Arcia, Pinto, Herrmann, and Parmelee are four guys I would absolutely rather have on the roster than those first four.

 

I think WE are starting to see who can be the pieces around the Buxton-Mauer-Sano trio. I just hope the Twins see it and act on it.

[Top Gun]

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire acknowledged that the team won't promote Aaron Hicks this month.

 

"This is a good breather for him," Gardenhire said. "Hopefully he'll come back with a little attitude." Hicks had a nightmare season, but it's interesting that Gardenhire and the front office continue to feed the media platitudes that imply this situation is the center fielder's fault. Quite simply, that's intellectually dishonest. Minnesota rushed Hicks into the Opening Day roster as a 23-year-old who'd never taken a Triple-A at-bat. He predictably struggled, though nobody knew he'd manage to hit only .192/.259/.338. Hicks' attitude doesn't need adjusting, in all likelihood. Baseball America's No. 72 prospect coming into the year just needs more experience. The attitude of Twins' management on this subject, however, is another story.

 

Source: Mike Berardino on Twitter

[jimbo92107]

I'd like to see Florimon go on a tear at the plate. His batting stance is quite nice, but he doesn't seem to have the best plan when he steps up to the plate. Maybe he should flip a coin whether he's going to swing at the first pitch.

[big dog]

My goal for the rest of the year is to play the AAA/AAAA guys as much as possible and figure out who stays and who goes. Clear spots on the 40-man for who needs promoting. Shine up Willy and Doom so you can put them in the display window at the winter meetings, and get whatever you can. Start preparing your glossy marketing brochures to send to every FA pitcher in the world. And think carefully about the coaching staff. I'm not a "change for change's sake" guy, but I'm not sure Gardy is the same manager he was 5 years ago and an upgrade is definitely possible. I think losing 90 3 yrs in a row can take it out of a manager just like it does a team and a fan base.

[Shane Wahl]

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire acknowledged that the team won't promote Aaron Hicks this month.

 

"This is a good breather for him," Gardenhire said. "Hopefully he'll come back with a little attitude." Hicks had a nightmare season, but it's interesting that Gardenhire and the front office continue to feed the media platitudes that imply this situation is the center fielder's fault. Quite simply, that's intellectually dishonest. Minnesota rushed Hicks into the Opening Day roster as a 23-year-old who'd never taken a Triple-A at-bat. He predictably struggled, though nobody knew he'd manage to hit only .192/.259/.338. Hicks' attitude doesn't need adjusting, in all likelihood. Baseball America's No. 72 prospect coming into the year just needs more experience. The attitude of Twins' management on this subject, however, is another story.

 

Source: Mike Berardino on Twitter

 

"A little attitude"--what does this even mean? Most of Hicks' struggles were easily predictable (and I don't think he needs a breather, by the way, but should be playing instead of Alex Presley).

[Mike Sixel]

At least a member of the media finally questioned the leadership of this team....

[big dog]

At least a member of the media finally questioned the leadership of this team....

 

I think that was Top Gun questioning the leadership, not Berardino. That was way too long to be a Twitter post. It would be nice to get his and LaVelle's take on some of these issues- not every beat reporter plays nice all the time.

[Mike Sixel]

I think that was Top Gun questioning the leadership, not Berardino. That was way too long to be a Twitter post. It would be nice to get his and LaVelle's take on some of these issues- not every beat reporter plays nice all the time.

 

Ah, dangit, yes....you are correct. I take back my compliment.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess I'm getting my wish on Pelfrey....are there still people that want to sign him?

[Halsey Hall]

I really thought Pelfrey would be the best pitcher the 2nd half of the season. Was I ever wrong on that!

[Shane Wahl]

I guess I'm getting my wish on Pelfrey....are there still people that want to sign him?

 

HAHAHAHA! Given it another 6 inning, 3 earned run start . . . you know a quality start . . .

[70charger]

HAHAHAHA! Given it another 6 inning, 3 earned run start . . . you know a quality start . . .

 

I wouldn't gloat so much after one bad start if I were you.

 

Hey, by the way, how's Joe Benson doing these days?

[S.]

His 5.31 ERA and 1.53 WHIP would beg to differ with the "one bad start" hypothesis.

[Marta Shearing]

The stability of 6

division wins in 8 years? The stability of 1000 career wins? The stability of a respected manager who would get hired in about 45 minutes if we let him go? There's several reasons. Pick whichever you like.

 

Because the division was such a juggernaut all those years, right? Because his teams have been so competitive in the playoffs, right?

[Shane Wahl]

I wouldn't gloat so much after one bad start if I were you.

 

Hey, by the way, how's Joe Benson doing these days?

 

Good call. He went south after being injured once again. Way south. Stopped hitting.

 

But Pelfrey has been full of bad starts this year.

[Alex]

I've been meaning to write about this, but haven't had a chance. Let's break this down a bit:

 

If the primary purpose of the season was to develop players for future years, let's take a look at the players by their importance and see if they developed or not.

 

.....

 

I don't know if anyone, including Terry Ryan, would qualify this year as a success. But I think more progress has been made than is generally acknowledged.

 

First, was that the primary purpose of the season -- especially as the front office was concerned?

 

Second, developing players and being competitive are not mutually exclusive. The Twins could have fielded a more competitive team AND still had these players develop because -- as someone else mentioned -- most of them have nothing to do with the major league team.

 

Most of those players would have had a chance to develop exactly the same way, especially the important ones (Sano, Buxton, Meyer), whether or not the Twins had brought in more talent at almost any position that merited an upgrade with the exception of 2B. Dozier had a rough season and looked replaceable but sticking with him has paid off and surprised many of us.

 

Also, I don't think anyone has complained about the Twins minor league system. But, it would certainly have been nice to see both a more competitive team and/or a more active approach to make the team better.

[Guest USAFChief]

First, was that the primary purpose of the season -- especially as the front office was concerned?

 

Second, developing players and being competitive are not mutually exclusive. The Twins could have fielded a more competitive team AND still had these players develop because -- as someone else mentioned -- most of them have nothing to do with the major league team.

 

Most of those players would have had a chance to develop exactly the same way, especially the important ones (Sano, Buxton, Meyer), whether or not the Twins had brought in more talent at almost any position that merited an upgrade with the exception of 2B. Dozier had a rough season and looked replaceable but sticking with him has paid off and surprised many of us.

 

Also, I don't think anyone has complained about the Twins minor league system. But, it would certainly have been nice to see both a more competitive team and/or a more active approach to make the team better.

Nice post.

 

i would add that IMO, the best way to build a good major league team is by assembling as much good major league talent as you can, and hope your minor leagues can fill in the missing parts, not the other way around.

 

Im of the opinion you add proven talent whenever/however you can. There's no such thing as too early.

[70charger]

Good call. He went south after being injured once again. Way south. Stopped hitting.

 

But Pelfrey has been full of bad starts this year.

 

True and true. On the other hand, how many of those starts are due to his quick return from Tommy John and how many are him not being very good? I agree with many posters here that we should have had an option year tacked onto the back of his contract, but what's done is done. If he can be reasonably good next year, we should at least consider him.

[Shane Wahl]

True and true. On the other hand, how many of those starts are due to his quick return from Tommy John and how many are him not being very good? I agree with many posters here that we should have had an option year tacked onto the back of his contract, but what's done is done. If he can be reasonably good next year, we should at least consider him.

 

Mike Pelfrey has been "good" for 2/7 of his entire career. Why ON EARTH should the Twins bother throwing more millions at replacement level pitching (at best)?

 

Answer: they should not. It's dumb as hell to do so. It make me sick to see a team not spend money on talent and yet spend money on nonsense like Pelfrey. It wasn't a bad idea for 2013, but it is a sickeningly terrible idea for 2014.

 

WHAT IS GOING ON AROUND HERE? AM I taking crazy pills? There is *still* this much support for resigning Mike Pelfrey for millions of dollars and like a couple years?

[Shane Wahl]

Nice post.

 

i would add that IMO, the best way to build a good major league team is by assembling as much good major league talent as you can, and hope your minor leagues can fill in the missing parts, not the other way around.

 

Im of the opinion you add proven talent whenever/however you can. There's no such thing as too early.

 

Yes that is right. It would be nice for this team to actually see how is MLB worthy from within as opposed to giving really any time to bad baseball players like Clete Thomas and Alex Presley.