The Twins don't use advanced metrics

[ThePuck]

Do you realize how much research it would take to confirm or refute these arguments ? My gut tells me that Terry Ryan is an excellent GM. Your gut tells you the opposite. Can it be proved by statistics ? Could you even agree on what makes a good GM ?

Currently people are arguing that because the Twins won-loss record has been so terrible that the GM and manager should be fired. But isn't this like a pitchers won-loss record? Most people no longer consider a pitchers won-loss record as the main way to judge a pitchers effectiveness, (Otherwise King Felix would never have won the Cy Young award) and the same could be said for a teams won-loss record as a method to judge the effectiveness of a manager or a front office.

Probably, but it would take would take a team of statisticians to compile a database that would rate Managers and General Managers. And the haters would still hate, because their gut tells them something different or they wouldn't agree on the criterion of what makes a good GM.

 

So we argue endlessly and when one poster uses an example of success or failure, the other side dismisses it due to the small sample size.

 

Here is one area where Sabermetrics could provide insight to the fans.

 

Actually, my gut didn't tell me anything of the sort in regards to this...in fact, my original point wasn't to discredit his post, but to ask for more info so we could see where Ryan stood compared to other teams, whether that is front of the line, back of the line , or somewhere in the middle. I had no idea, which is why I ask.

 

My gut told me that if one is going to say he's done a good job at something one should at least compare it to what others have done in the same amount of time before just stating he's done a very good job at it. I don't think it's out of bounds to ask for the info. We compare players stats all the time, why not GM moves...especially when certain moves are brought up as a way to say someone was good or bad? When he turned around and said he hadn't even looked, well, how do we know how Ryan has done compared to other teams in this regard, then?

 

For me, there are things he does well, there are things he doesn't. I don't have a blanket opinion.

[ThePuck]

Most people no longer consider a pitchers won-loss record as the main way to judge a pitchers effectiveness, (Otherwise King Felix would never have won the Cy Young award) and the same could be said for a teams won-loss record as a method to judge the effectiveness of a manager or a front office.

 

I'm not sure how those two compare. Many don't like the win-loss stats for pitchers because it doesn't take into account the defense or offense of that pitcher's team. It takes a whole team to win or lose, not just the pitcher. In the case of TEAM win-losses, the GM creates the TEAM. The manager manages what the GM gives him. So the win-loss record reflects the GM's abilities much more directly...cause he created the TEAM that is winning or losing.

[nicksaviking]

Currently people are arguing that because the Twins won-loss record has been so terrible that the GM and manager should be fired. But isn't this like a pitchers won-loss record? Most people no longer consider a pitchers won-loss record as the main way to judge a pitchers effectiveness,

 

So we argue endlessly and when one poster uses an example of success or failure, the other side dismisses it due to the small sample size.

 

I haven't seen a posts that argue to get rid of the GM and manager based on any win/loss record, though considering the goal is to win games it likely would be fair to do so. The win/loss record for a pitcher is often immaterial because the pitcher may be on a bad team with little run support. The win/loss record for a GM shows that he has fielded a poor team. I've also yet to see a no-decision show up on a teams win/loss record. I don't think anyone would argue that a 90 loss team is a success.

[jay]

For me, there are things he does well, there are things he doesn't. I don't have a blanket opinion.

 

I can understand the desire for more info. If I have to call it opinion with some examples instead of statistically proven truth, so be it.

 

Personally, I think TR is an excellent evaluator (specfically low minors), a strong negotiator, and, for some reason, knows how to build a cheap but effective bullpen. I think he's weak in embracing statistical evaluation, identifying/acquiring top-end pitching talent, and free agent acquisition. I could probably sum up those three weaknesses as risk-averse.

 

What are some of the things you speak of that he does well and not well?

[ThePuck]

I can understand the desire for more info. If I have to call it opinion with some examples instead of statistically proven truth, so be it.

 

Personally, I think TR is an excellent evaluator (specfically low minors), a strong negotiator, and, for some reason, knows how to build a cheap but effective bullpen. I think he's weak in embracing statistical evaluation, identifying/acquiring top-end pitching talent, and free agent acquisition. I could probably sum up those three weaknesses as risk-averse.

 

What are some of the things you speak of that he does well and not well?

 

I think his scouting skills are top notch. I think he did a very good job of building a competitive team on a budget during a time he needed to (his first stint as GM). I think he trades pretty well for the most part, though every GM has his hits and misses.

 

I don't think he does well on getting free agents. I think he sticks too tightly to the idea that X player is worth X amount and X years and I'm not going to pay more or give more years. I also don't think he's very honest to the fans, which I have a problem with but I've been told it's not important.

 

That's just to start and those are just my opinions. Whether or not they are true, I have no clue.

[terencemann]

From a coaching standpoint they very well might emphasize it. From a player acquisition standpoint? I dunno. They traded Garza for Young. They traded Santana for Gomez. They seem to be under the impression that Florimon can turn into a useful hitter. Rarely do you see them go after a guy who might be undervalued because his strike zone control exceeds his other skills. Although I feel less strongly about this point than the two that preceded it.

 

The thing is, those trades came down to other factors. The Rays probably didn't trade Young because of stats; they traded him because he had terrible make-up issues (insert pun here) and they got the chance to acquire several mid-tier prospects for him to fill out some of the many holes they had in their lineup going forward. The Santana trade is a well chronicled failure of the Twins to acquire the high-end pieces they wanted. You can ding them for poor negotiating but those are trades that come down to a combination of scouting and judgement and not stats.

 

The issue isn't so much about having an analytic department or not having one. You can have 10 people in that department or none (as the Rangers claim) but if your front office doesn't listen to those people enough or those people can't communicate what they're finding well enough or if the decision makers don't have the acumen to make use of that data then it doesn't matter.

[Thegrin]

Here are some random thoughts while reading through the posts.

- Who's to say which Twins scouts use Sabermetrics to assist them when analyzing prospects?

- I'd be happier to know how much the Twins invest in mental training. Visualization. The sort of things that can help a player be tougher mentally?

-

In fact, I'd argue advanced metrics don't apply to drafting anyway. (Or at least, significantly less so) I'd say their most useful application would be on minor league players. The data from high schools and some colleges just isn't all that reliable.

- Lets suppose that you have a data base that tracks every college baseball program.

 

Think of the effort it would take to create a database of every high-school baseball program. American Legion program. Think of the effort and skill it would take to rank the different leagues so you could give a value to the stats that players accrue during their seasons.

 

Is there a database of all the HS Baseball teams in Minnesota ?

 

- If you want to read a good book on how the Tampa Bay Rays have used stats read:

The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First

by Jonah Keri (Author) , Mark Cuban (Foreword)

 

- Much more statistical analysis needs to be done in the minor leagues and used in the minor leagues as a teaching tool. As an example: If plate discipline can be taught, then use stats to show players that they are deficient and that they can improve and use the stats will support this.

[Mike Sixel]

If win loss records aren't how you judge a GM, I have no idea how to do so......

 

Now, the team was a mess when he inherited it, but a lot of that is from when he was GM. The minors have not produced players for some time......not enough legit MLB players, and not enough elite ones. The people that should be 2-4 year vets right now would have been acquired during his first tenure. So, unlike others, I hold his first term more accountable right now than Bill Smith's tenure.

 

But that's not the point.....the point is, if you can't judge a GM based on how well his team wins and loses, then there is no way to do so.

[JB_Iowa]

Just because I don't think anyone has posted a link to this:

 

Twins Daily - Where are the Twins at with statistical analysis?

 

and this one:

 

Twins Daily - Twins prepare for trade deadline

 

 

I thought both of these articles were excellent pieces by Parker Hageman and that Jack Goin gave some insight about the Twins and statistical analysis.

[jokin]

If win loss records aren't how you judge a GM, I have no idea how to do so......

 

Now, the team was a mess when he inherited it, but a lot of that is from when he was GM. The minors have not produced players for some time......not enough legit MLB players, and not enough elite ones. The people that should be 2-4 year vets right now would have been acquired during his first tenure. So, unlike others, I hold his first term more accountable right now than Bill Smith's tenure.

 

But that's not the point.....the point is, if you can't judge a GM based on how well his team wins and loses, then there is no way to do so.

 

You can measure a GMs performance by the year-end balance sheet. And this year, it seems that cutting payroll for 2 consecutive years is going to result in 2013 being one of the Twins most profitable years, ever.

[jokin]

The thing is, those trades came down to other factors. The Rays probably didn't trade Young because of stats; they traded him because he had terrible make-up issues (insert pun here) and they got the chance to acquire several mid-tier prospects for him to fill out some of the many holes they had in their lineup going forward. The Santana trade is a well chronicled failure of the Twins to acquire the high-end pieces they wanted. You can ding them for poor negotiating but those are trades that come down to a combination of scouting and judgement and not stats.

 

The issue isn't so much about having an analytic department or not having one. You can have 10 people in that department or none (as the Rangers claim) but if your front office doesn't listen to those people enough or those people can't communicate what they're finding well enough or if the decision makers don't have the acumen to make use of that data then it doesn't matter.

 

Wait a minute, I thought Terry Ryan's strength was identifying and making judgements on undiscovered and underappreciated prospects and also buy-low major league turn-arounds? He certainly must have compiled the list of "acceptable" players in a Santana trade for Bill Smith to chew on shortly before he took his 4-year sabbatical leave. Without looking it up, I would wager that the minor league stats for the Yankees and Red Sox prospects were more intriguing that the one's from the Mets, including Carlos Gomez.

 

It certainly wasn't for a still-vigorous and energetic Terry Ryan negotiating acumen. Here's his own epitaphic assessment and rationale explaining his 2007 departure:

 

“I look like I’m 75 but I’m 53, and I’d probably be better served out in the field and out there on the diamond instead of behind that desk,” (Terry Ryan) said at his retirement news conference. He added: “The game has changed since I’ve entered. It’s for bright, energetic negotiators, more so than anything I possess.”

 

Terry Ryan was directly involved in choosing his own successor, can anyone argue that he got that one wrong in a big, big way? Kind of ironic that Bill Smith gets credit in his tenure only for some successful draft picks and a complete FAIL when it came to "bright and energetic negotiating ability."

[Otto von Ballpark]

Without wading too deep into this debate, I just want to clarify that analytics and advanced stats doesn't just have to mean WAR, FIP, etc. There was a recent ESPN piece about TrackMan, a radar system used to analyze pitchers - basically every detail about their motion and how the ball leaves their hand. 17 MLB teams are using it, would be curious if the Twins are, or at least using something similar.

[drjim]

That is the area I would like to see TR grow. He seems to still believe that we are a small market team, not a medium market team.

 

I would disagree a little with this. I would argue that whatever he may say in public Terry Ryan is acting like a GM of a rebuilding club instead of a GM of a club that is on the cusp of competing.

[drjim]

If win loss records aren't how you judge a GM, I have no idea how to do so......

 

Now, the team was a mess when he inherited it, but a lot of that is from when he was GM. The minors have not produced players for some time......not enough legit MLB players, and not enough elite ones. The people that should be 2-4 year vets right now would have been acquired during his first tenure. So, unlike others, I hold his first term more accountable right now than Bill Smith's tenure.

 

But that's not the point.....the point is, if you can't judge a GM based on how ,well his team wins and loses, then there is no way to do so.

 

One thing you don't mention here is that the two best prospect/young player Ryan left Smith (Garza and Ramos) were traded and there is virtually nothing in the organization to show for it.

 

While it is true the farm systems was weak when Smith took over, there was still significant talent on the major league roster including two mvp caliber players, young startering pitching, other fringe all star caliber players (Nathan and Cuddyer), other mlb quality players like Kubel and Bartlett, etc. The cupboard of talent was hardly bare.

 

Smith did some things well but his bungling of the big trades caused significant harm to the franchise and that is the mess Ryan is trying to clean up. Perhaps you should give the man more than two years.

[Alex]

Ryan of course did re-sign Capps instead of taking the supplemental pick.

 

But the trade was still part of an organizational philosophy, one that Nick pointed out, and I think less about an individual GM than that overall approach.

[Jim H]

Part of the problem for me in this debate is that I suspect different people are using similar words but talking about entirely different things. If people are accusing the Twins of not using the "advanced metrics" commonly available to the general public, well I not so sure that is a bad thing. When you look closely at the "hot" metrics like WAR, FIP, UZR well, there are a lot of reasons to be more than a bit sceptical about their value.

 

Now if the Twins are not using some of the customized analytical analysis that should be available to major league teams, that is a different issue. I don't know what they might doing in this area. There is some evidence that they are carefully scripting innings and pitch counts for the very young pitchers in the organization. Now, how they are determining this, that is what they are basing this on, I don't know. Again, when preparing for the trade deadline they were consulting with Goin on this, exactly what information he was giving them, well that was kind of vague.

 

Ryan and the Twins organization can be rather closed mouth and rather vague about how they come to various decisions. That doesn't mean that they are using a lot of analytical research to help making their decisions. On the other hand, they could be using it in certain areas. It is almost certain that scouting will be more important for evaluation of talent then "advanced metrics". In other areas, well I don't really know.

[The Wise One]

I have no idea what the Twins use for advanced metrics. I would safely bet the do not involve the "wins" categories of metrics but those that speak to skill levels. Since Ryan runs thins past Goins they at least use him as a red flag sort of thing. I know they done have a person with a degree in statistics. I really doubt that any organization does. I believe they hire a lot of geeks with a love for baseball that want to work in baseball. I doubt there is a shortage of them out there. It doesn't take a whole lot to understand statistics. Any degree that has any sort of research component should give you the knowledge needed. There is no degree program for understanding baseball other than the school of hard knocks.

Can anyone tell me how Epstien gets credit for building the Red Sox when he took over a team that had 92 wins? It but needed a tweak.

[Mike Sixel]

One thing you don't mention here is that the two best prospect/young player Ryan left Smith (Garza and Ramos) were traded and there is virtually nothing in the organization to show for it.

 

While it is true the farm systems was weak when Smith took over, there was still significant talent on the major league roster including two mvp caliber players, young startering pitching, other fringe all star caliber players (Nathan and Cuddyer), other mlb quality players like Kubel and Bartlett, etc. The cupboard of talent was hardly bare.

 

Smith did some things well but his bungling of the big trades caused significant harm to the franchise and that is the mess Ryan is trying to clean up. Perhaps you should give the man more than two years.

 

Name the young players on this roster, that come in while Ryan was GM........The minors are/were barren at the AA and AAA level when Smith took over. That's why this team is bad, there are zero players in their peak years right now, none (maybe Dozier, but I need more than 2-3 months to think a guy is good with any confidence). It boggles the mind how much people think this is on Smith.

 

And, when Sano, Arcia, and Rosario are 1/3 of the lineup next year, Ryan will get all the credit for making the team better....

[drjim]

Name the young players on this roster, that come in while Ryan was GM........The minors are/were barren at the AA and AAA level when Smith took over. That's why this team is bad, there are zero players in their peak years right now, none (maybe Dozier, but I need more than 2-3 months to think a guy is good with any confidence). It boggles the mind how much people think this is on Smith.

 

And, when Sano, Arcia, and Rosario are 1/3 of the lineup next year, Ryan will get all the credit for making the team better....

 

Certainly true that the farm system was down, a decade of drafting in the bottom half can cause that.

 

But, savvy management of mlb assets can overcome that. Disastrous management leads to the collapse we have seen. Had Smith been bequeathed a top 5 system that would have mitigated the disaster somewhat but no guarantee.

[Mike Sixel]

Or had Ryan signed Hunter when he warranted an extension.....that might have helped some too. Or had Ryan been willing to trade some of the prospects that did not work out, for legit MLB players, that might have helped. Or, if Ryan had traded vets for good, elite prospects that might have helped. Not really sure how you can hold a GM accountable for an old team, that has no assets in AA or AAA, and with an owner that wants to not spend a lot of money (well, that's how they act) and that was only there for a couple of years.

[Mike Sixel]

But I've beaten that horse to a pulp, but it bugs me when people rip Smith for what he inherited.

[drjim]

But I've beaten that horse to a pulp, but it bugs me when people rip Smith for what he inherited.

 

I don't think Smith had it easy by any means, not sure I ever said that. But he did have some assets and he made a mess of them that has directly led to the current disaster.

[Boom Boom]

I don't think Smith had it easy by any means, not sure I ever said that. But he did have some assets and he made a mess of them that has directly led to the current disaster.

 

He DID trade Ramos for Capps, and Hardy for nothing.

 

Smith did make some good moves, though. He traded Pino for Pavano, Gomez for Hardy, and Mulvey for Rauch. He also signed Miguel Sano. Smith was not a good GM, but he takes way too much of the blame for the current state of affairs IMO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Certainly true that the farm system was down, a decade of drafting in the bottom half can cause that.

 

But, savvy management of mlb assets can overcome that. Disastrous management leads to the collapse we have seen. Had Smith been bequeathed a top 5 system that would have mitigated the disaster somewhat but no guarantee.

 

 

I honestly fear he would have traded away more guys had he had a top 5 system. That man didn't say no to trades. What he did right was opening the checkbook to go after guys like Sano. But if he had a top 5 system, he'd have traded our version of Dylan Bundy for a trio of relief pitchers.

[Willihammer]

Certainly true that the farm system was down, a decade of drafting in the bottom half can cause that.

 

But, savvy management of mlb assets can overcome that.

 

Savvy management can also find some talents in rounds 2-40 to ensure you have a steady stream of assets to work with.

 

Ryan gets a lot of credit around here for restocking the farm system and possessing a great scouting acumen but I'm not sure its all well-deserved. Its a bit early to look at the 2012 draft but so far it looks like more of the same - clunkers in rounds 2-40, with a few possible exceptions. Certainly Bard looks like a bust.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but the general idea with that draft was to get low-risk, college pitching talents who would move through the system quickly. Instead a lot of guys seem to be stagnating, or downright struggling, in Elizabethton and CR.

[drjim]

He DID trade Ramos for Capps, and Hardy for nothing.

 

Smith did make some good moves, though. He traded Pino for Pavano, Gomez for Hardy, and Mulvey for Rauch. He also signed Miguel Sano. Smith was not a good GM, but he takes way too much of the blame for the current state of affairs IMO.

 

My thought is that the Twins were going to hit somewhat of a down cycle but the movea of Smith made it worse and deeper than a competent GM would have. He made some solid moves in lesser trades/acquisitions but those are far outweighed by getting the big moves disastrously wrong.

 

This is not all on Smith by any means, but it is worse than it has to be.

 

Ryan made mistakes, especially towards the end, but they were errors of omission which are often less costly than errors of commission.

[Oxtung]

...Certainly Bard looks like a bust.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but the general idea with that draft was to get low-risk, college pitching talents who would move through the system quickly. Instead a lot of guys seem to be stagnating, or downright struggling, in Elizabethton and CR.

 

I'm not a draft expert but taking a bunch of college relief pitchers and trying to turn them into starters seems anything but low-risk or quick to majors.

 

Last year there was not much college starting pitching talent after the top guys so the Twins tried a novel approach to acquire high upside arms. At least that is how I remember the discussions, FWIW.

 

I'm also not sure how one can tell what Bard is since he has hardly pitched. Presumably his talent is still there even if it is delayed.

[howieramone1406390264]

Savvy management can also find some talents in rounds 2-40 to ensure you have a steady stream of assets to work with.

 

Ryan gets a lot of credit around here for restocking the farm system and possessing a great scouting acumen but I'm not sure its all well-deserved. Its a bit early to look at the 2012 draft but so far it looks like more of the same - clunkers in rounds 2-40, with a few possible exceptions. Certainly Bard looks like a bust.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but the general idea with that draft was to get low-risk, college pitching talents who would move through the system quickly. Instead a lot of guys seem to be stagnating, or downright struggling, in Elizabethton and CR.

 

The Twins do the have #1 rated farm system. What were you hoping for?

[Alex]

The Twins do the have #1 rated farm system. What were you hoping for?

 

And they should maintain that with another high pick next year (Last I saw after picks were signed, they were #2 behind the Astros, but not a big difference). I won't argue that Ryan has been bad, but a lot of that is because of inherited players (Sano, obv, and Rosario) and inherited situation, ie being bad multiple years and getting multiple high picks. To his credit, he did add May and Meyer, but at some point, he needs to make the big league club better, and that doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon.

[Willihammer]

The Twins do the have #1 rated farm system. What were you hoping for?

 

Crediting Ryan for the overall state of the farm makes about as much sense as blaming him for the overall state of the TWins. It seems to me that Bill Smith was a significant factor in both.

 

It seems like there's a little groupthink around here about Ryan's ability to rebuild a farm but if you take the top picks out of the equation I'm not sure he's done any better than Smith would have.