Correia's last day with the Twins...

[big dog]

I just believe that management thinks they CAN win with a low payroll with a roster made up of cheap young assets because they were within shouting distance of doing it last decade.

 

...and because other teams have done it that way as well.

[Kwak]

Wow, that's more cynical than I can manage. Not saying it's not true, I just believe that management thinks they CAN win with a low payroll with a roster made up of cheap young assets because they were within shouting distance of doing it last decade.

 

 

 

I just think it's a long shot and using free agency on upgrades, not fillers increases the odds.

 

I did not imply "not winning"! I'll try simpler words. "Mr. Ryan your assignment is: Clean-up this mess; replace underperforming players with younger, healthier, more motivated, and better players; remember we're not the Yankees!" Is this upbeat enough?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What you call a bloody rush, I think many would call "about damn time". Shields is their very affordable asset for another year - be it as a contributor or a trade chip.

 

Moments available to add elite pitching from outside your organization are not commonplace. They may have mistimed or given up too much, but the notion that in two years the same scenario is still going to be sitting there defies reality about how much affordable signed, cost controlled elite pitching is out on the market.

 

And if the Royals didn't give up the #4 prospect in baseball, a prospect they badly need on their team this season (and beyond), I might agree.

 

I'm not against the idea behind this move. I'm against what it required to get Shields, when it was done, and the current state of the Royals when it happened.

[Major League Ready]

You asked what the rush was, not what it should be.....if you are the GM, what would you do, only worry about the future guy's job, or your own job too...

 

You have to have been in this position to understand it and with all due respect I will point out that a very small percentage of people have been responsible for operations / organizations with a 9-figure operating budget. I can say with absolute certainty that my continued employment was much more securing making decisions that I could defend in terms of being in the long-term best interest of the company.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm currently running a program of staggering size and lenght in one of the biggest companies in the US......with all due respect, I disagree with some of what you typed, I know lots of execs that care about their future employment differently than you are stating. You sound lucky, frankly, given my experience in more than 1 huge company. I think it is naive to believe that Moore is under no pressure for the team to be BETTER this year. And, as someone stated, maybe this was an ownership decision also.....

[ThePuck]

What you call a bloody rush, I think many would call "about damn time". Shields is their very affordable asset for another year - be it as a contributor or a trade chip.

 

Moments available to add elite pitching from outside your organization are not commonplace. They may have mistimed or given up too much, but the notion that in two years the same scenario is still going to be sitting there defies reality about how much affordable signed, cost controlled elite pitching is out on the market.

 

It's only been almost 30 years since they went to the playoffs. These things take time. Don't rush things. :-)

[ThePuck]

...and because other teams have done it that way as well.

 

Usually out of necessity...we're not in that boat. We don't need to avoid FA like the plague and trade off all of our pieces/let them go when we lose team control of them like those teams. We're not the As or Rays.

[Major League Ready]

I'm currently running a program of staggering size and lenght in one of the biggest companies in the US......with all due respect, I disagree with some of what you typed, I know lots of execs that care about their future employment differently than you are stating. You sound lucky, frankly, given my experience in more than 1 huge company. I think it is naive to believe that Moore is under no pressure for the team to be BETTER this year. And, as someone stated, maybe this was an ownership decision also.....

 

You definitely have a point that many executives follow short-term thinking. However, that does not make it advisable to do so. I think there is also a bit of a misconception on how some of us are characterizing the need or pressure on Moore to make the team better every year. I won't speak for others but I am sure there was lots of pressure to be better this year. IMO, this plan presumed the core of the team would improve because it would make no sense had that not been the presumption. Thus, the team wuld have improved w/o Shields. Actually, Shields is 6-8. While he is better than his record, he is not the reason for the Royals improved record.

[ThePuck]

You definitely have a point that many executives follow short-term thinking. However, that does not make it advisable to do so. I think there is also a bit of a misconception on how some of us are characterizing the need or pressure on Moore to make the team better every year. I won't speak for others but I am sure there was lots of pressure to be better this year. IMO, this plan presumed the core of the team would improve because it would make no sense had that not been the presumption. Thus, the team wuld have improved w/o Shields. Actually, Shields is 6-8. While he is better than his record, he is not the reason for the Royals improved record.

 

Shields already has 160 innings pitched with 1/3 of the season left. They've won more than half his starts. His ability to go deeper into games helps the bullpen, which helps the team when the bullpen is needed and on and on. A pitcher'S WIN-LOSS record says nothing about how he's done or how he's helped or hindered his team.

[nicksaviking]

I did not imply "not winning"! I'll try simpler words. "Mr. Ryan your assignment is: Clean-up this mess; replace underperforming players with younger, healthier, more motivated, and better players; remember we're not the Yankees!" Is this upbeat enough?

 

I wasn't dismissing with your assesment of the situation, I just put my view on the issue. Don't worry about being upbeat as far as I'm concerned.

[nicksaviking]

Usually out of necessity...we're not in that boat. We don't need to avoid FA like the plague and trade off all of our pieces/let them go when we lose team control of them like those teams. We're not the As or Rays.

 

And as discussed, this team opperates nothing like the A's or Rays. Having a low payroll can't be the only common denominator if you are looking to mimic their success.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's only been almost 30 years since they went to the playoffs. These things take time. Don't rush things. :-)

 

Yes, because past failure should absolutely weigh into whether a front office should stick with what looks to be a solid gameplan for longterm viability in favor of being impatient and "winning right now", even if they forget to accomplish the "winning" part of that statement.

[ThePuck]

Yes, because past failure should absolutely weigh into whether a front office should stick with what looks to be a solid gameplan for longterm viability in favor of being impatient and "winning right now", even if they forget to accomplish the "winning" part of that statement.

 

My post was a joke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And as discussed, this team opperates nothing like the A's or Rays. Having a low payroll can't be the only common denominator if you are looking to mimic their success.

 

No, the Twins aren't much like the Rays or A's but during the 2000s, the teams shared similar success stories. There is more than one way to skin a cat and Ryan proved he can compile a winning team on the cheap.

 

Now the trick is to find someone to beat him over the head until he understands that the Twins no longer need to be cheap.

[Oxtung]

One thing that is getting over looked in this discussion is payroll. It is entirely possible that the owners and management looked at the long term financial outlook and decided this was their opportunity, before their hopefully soon to be big names start getting expensive.

 

Two years from now they have some big increases coming. Here are the salary increases:

 

Player - 2015/2016

Butler - $4M/FA

Gordon - $3.5M/$3.5M

Guthrie - $4M/FA

Davis - $4M/$5M

Perez - $.75M/$1M

 

They also have 13 players that will be entering their arbitration years. They are also going to have to replace, like every team, many of their aging players and that is only going to get more expensive, as we've seen. That's $16M in contracts and according to baseball-reference.com, around $48M in arbitration players. By 2016 that figure balloons to $79M in arbitration money alone.

 

This is the same problem I see with the Twins, if you wait two or three years until all of your prospects are established and ready to go you can no longer afford that top tier free agent and sign your young studs to long term contracts. I think it's entirely possible KC saw this coming and made a conscious decision to go for it, hoping their young guys improve, before the money crunch comes because they knew it wouldn't be possible in two years.

[jorgenswest]

So I guess we are arguing that when the Twins get to KC's position in three years, this is the kind of move they should consider. By that time, some of the key prospects will be 22-25 and hopefully have a few seasons under their belts as Gordon, Hosmer, Moustakis and Perez do. Let's look for that trade in 2016.

 

Meanwhile, what do the Twins do with Correia? Stay with him or try to go with a young guy that may struggle more but be part of the future solution?

[Oxtung]

So I guess we are arguing that when the Twins get to KC's position in three years, this is the kind of move they should consider. By that time, some of the key prospects will be 22-25 and hopefully have a few seasons under their belts as Gordon, Hosmer, Moustakis and Perez do. Let's look for that trade in 2016.

 

Meanwhile, what do the Twins do with Correia? Stay with him or try to go with a young guy that may struggle more but be part of the future solution?

 

Correia will be with the Twins at least through May of 2014 because he's owed $5.5M dollars. Management isn't just going to throw that money away and nobody is going to trade for him.

[TheLeviathan]

Meanwhile, what do the Twins do with Correia? Stay with him or try to go with a young guy that may struggle more but be part of the future solution?

 

Invest in time travel technology and try to undo the mistake in the first place?

[Major League Ready]

One thing that is getting over looked in this discussion is payroll. It is entirely possible that the owners and management looked at the long term financial outlook and decided this was their opportunity, before their hopefully soon to be big names start getting expensive.

 

Two years from now they have some big increases coming. Here are the salary increases:

 

Player - 2015/2016

Butler - $4M/FA

Gordon - $3.5M/$3.5M

Guthrie - $4M/FA

Davis - $4M/$5M

Perez - $.75M/$1M

 

They also have 13 players that will be entering their arbitration years. They are also going to have to replace, like every team, many of their aging players and that is only going to get more expensive, as we've seen. That's $16M in contracts and according to baseball-reference.com, around $48M in arbitration players. By 2016 that figure balloons to $79M in arbitration money alone.

 

This is the same problem I see with the Twins, if you wait two or three years until all of your prospects are established and ready to go you can no longer afford that top tier free agent and sign your young studs to long term contracts. I think it's entirely possible KC saw this coming and made a conscious decision to go for it, hoping their young guys improve, before the money crunch comes because they knew it wouldn't be possible in two years.

 

You are right. The financial realities might have dictated the timing. They are right at the bottom of the leauge in terms of revenue with approximately $50M less than the Twins. I would have to spend more time looking at the specifics than I am willing to invest in order to determine their options. Off the top of my head, they could trade Gordon, replacing him with Meyers, in the process adding more good prospects to their system. Between moving Gordon and the addition TV revenue, KC would have roughly $36M to cover payroll and arbitration increases.

 

The financial perspective put in context does change my opinion somewhat. The window is pretty narrow when you are at the bottom of the leauge in terms of revenue.

[Kwak]

One thing that is getting over looked in this discussion is payroll. It is entirely possible that the owners and management looked at the long term financial outlook and decided this was their opportunity, before their hopefully soon to be big names start getting expensive.

 

Two years from now they have some big increases coming. Here are the salary increases:

 

Player - 2015/2016

Butler - $4M/FA

Gordon - $3.5M/$3.5M

Guthrie - $4M/FA

Davis - $4M/$5M

Perez - $.75M/$1M

 

They also have 13 players that will be entering their arbitration years. They are also going to have to replace, like every team, many of their aging players and that is only going to get more expensive, as we've seen. That's $16M in contracts and according to baseball-reference.com, around $48M in arbitration players. By 2016 that figure balloons to $79M in arbitration money alone.

 

This is the same problem I see with the Twins, if you wait two or three years until all of your prospects are established and ready to go you can no longer afford that top tier free agent and sign your young studs to long term contracts. I think it's entirely possible KC saw this coming and made a conscious decision to go for it, hoping their young guys improve, before the money crunch comes because they knew it wouldn't be possible in two years.

 

I also agree with your analysis. If I may add: window of opportunity. During the off-season I didn't think Boston would be viable for the playoffs this year. It was known that some of the Yankees would miss considerable time due to injury. The Yankees are also "old" and thus the Yankees are "vulnerable". However, given two years, both Boston and NYY could/would acquire several top free agents propelling them back to the top. Combine that with the talent out West, and there would be near zero chance for a wild card. It would be "win the division or watch the post-season". Did they gamble? Absolutely! But this just might be last, best time to go "all-in".

[LaBombo]

Invest in time travel technology and try to undo the mistake in the first place?

Best suggestion so far...

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5f2kof1em1qcv5upo1_500.gif

[jorgenswest]

Yup, a MLB team should just keep punting contention until every star is aligned perfectly, then sign legit FAs or make trades. And, they should keep charging MLB prices while doing so. That's the argument, right?

 

Dayton Moore might not have a job in 2 years......Did I love the trade? No. Do I understand the trade, and not think it is the worst idea ever? Yes.

 

Seth, no way KC has an ERA around 4.5 at the end of the year. We'll be lucky if he sees that number at any time in the next 15 months.

 

I didn't expect this start today. I guess we were lucky.

[jokin]

I didn't expect this start today. I guess we were lucky.

 

As long as he pitches against the White Sox (ranked last in the AL in hitting) on a getaway day, this type of " lucky" performance is totally expected.

[jorgenswest]

As long as he pitches against the White Sox (ranked last in the AL in hitting) on a getaway day, this type of " lucky" performance is totally expected.

 

If the performance had been from Gibson, would you be so quick to dismiss it?

[stringer bell]

No, the Twins aren't much like the Rays or A's but during the 2000s, the teams shared similar success stories. There is more than one way to skin a cat and Ryan proved he can compile a winning team on the cheap.

 

Now the trick is to find someone to beat him over the head until he understands that the Twins no longer need to be cheap.

I agree with you on this. Besides this, the other question that troubles me is whether the team really understands the need for power arms, particularly among the starting pitchers. While they did well with the Rick Reeds, Carl Pavanos and so forth in the past, they need to bolster their pitching staff with guys who get swings and misses.

[Thegrin]

Today's (Sunday) outting was a good one. If Correia continues to pitch this way, we will all love him. But that is a mighty big IF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As long as he pitches against the White Sox (ranked last in the AL in hitting) on a getaway day, this type of " lucky" performance is totally expected.

 

It's bad form to gloat over a bad performance and then dismiss a good one. This is how mediocre pitchers achieve mediocre stat lines. They occasionally shut down a bad team, pitch a bunch of "meh" games, and occasionally disintegrate on the mound.

[jokin]

It's bad form to gloat over a bad performance and then dismiss a good one. This is how mediocre pitchers achieve mediocre stat lines. They occasionally shut down a bad team, pitch a bunch of "meh" games, and occasionally disintegrate on the mound.

 

No gloating on my part or dismissive tone. I merely made a factual observation and I think you just agreed with me with your own summation. Correia was indeed excellent today. He did what mediocre pitchers are capable of doing when given multiple opportunites, and as in year's past, this has been the key to whatever success Correia has had this year. As I've documented repeatedly, his numbers have come about largely due to facing an over-representation of weak W-L record teams and the bottom quartile hitting teams.

[Mike Sixel]

Great start, good thing Seth did not bet me.....

[diehardtwinsfan]

One thing that is getting over looked in this discussion is payroll.

 

The only reason for that is because that horse was beaten to death so badly that it never made it to this thread before it died.