Correia's last day with the Twins...

[ThePuck]

So what you're saying is that their hitters looked legit because two guys posted an OPS over .800 last season? The Royals finished 2012 ranked 12th in the AL in OPS+.

 

And I don't really care what Moore thought... He was obviously wrong. I argued this same point last offseason and from the outside, it didn't take much foresight to see that Moore was stepping out on a very shaky limb with these moves.

 

So, what you're saying is players coming into their prime or just in their prime should have expected dropoffs in OPS points of: 47, 158, 107, 106 and 89 points. That's what Moore should have expected? That's more realistic to EXPECT to happen prior to the start of the season? Expecting an average of 100 point dropoff in OPS for these 5 players is more realistic than to expect these guys in their prime or coming into their prime to do better or at least as well as they did last year?

 

And if you don't care what Moore think,as you said in this post, then why did you write: 'The problem with the Shields trade is that Moore had no reason TO THINK the young hitters in KC were legit.' What he was thinking is at the heart of whether or not this trade should have happened and you put it in your argument as to what he SHOULDN'T have been thinking.

[ThePuck]

The Royals have to pass more teams to win the WC than they do to win the division.

 

yeah, and there's 2/3 of a season left.

[jorgenswest]

A link to an assessment of the trade from long time Royal fan and baseball analyst Rany Jazayerli.

 

Assessing the Myers-Shields trade from the Royals' side. It ain't pretty. - Grantland

[ThePuck]

A link to an assessment of the trade from long time Royal fan and baseball analyst Rany Jazayerli.

 

Assessing the Myers-Shields trade from the Royals' side. It ain't pretty. - Grantland

 

Here's an article from Justice...talking about the team...talking about Shields and his affect on the team...and talking about Moore's reasoning. Specifically how he built this team through a strong farm system and that the farm system sometimes needs to be dipped into to get things they need...like pitching.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130805&content_id=56018042&vkey=news_kc&c_id=kc

[TheLeviathan]

A link to an assessment of the trade from long time Royal fan and baseball analyst Rany Jazayerli.

 

Assessing the Myers-Shields trade from the Royals' side. It ain't pretty. - Grantland

 

That argument I can at least see the perspective: Wil Meyers is just too good to trade. The article mistakenly calls Shields not an "ace" but the man clearly is. He's not one of the top aces, but he's very much an ace. This writer's take is basically that Meyers is untrade-able. He doesn't disagree with the thinking, he disagrees with the value.

 

I can agree to disagree with that. I don't understand the arguments being perpetuated here, however.

[Jham]

Shields is not under control for several years, he's under control for two.

 

And the Royals have wasted 50% of that time already.

 

If you have the goods, you can rent a very good pitcher. He may not be James Shields but he'll be well above average.

 

Your logic regarding tradeability actually support the trade. The Royals dealt a potential star for two years of an ace and a run at the post season. I would hardly call this year a waste. The last 3 decades of Royals baseball have proven that you will indeed wait for a lifetime if you wait for the right time. More to the point, Kansas City ALSO acquired an ace to dangle this off-season or next July who would command a pretty sweet prospect package in return, especially if he continues to lead the team on a pennant chase. If Kevin Correia teaches us anything, it is that bargain pitching isn't much of a bargain when it utterly lacks trade value.

[Thegrin]

I hope they let Correia skip his next turn in the rotation. Maybe switch him with Swarzak. The Twins should be tired of Correia's act.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How many years must a young hitter consecutively post an OPS of .800 before it's worthwhile to augment the team around them?

 

What Moore did was anticipate and trust the talent on his team. Why would any GM act in any other way?

 

They were one of the worst offensive teams in the AL last season. What are they "augmenting"? Most of KC's bats were really bad last season. What gave anyone the impression that they were going to jump to league average, much less above average?

 

This wasn't an 82-80 team looking to push themselves over the top. This was a 72-90 team with one of the worst offenses in the AL. A 72-90 team that traded one of the best prospects in baseball for two years of an ace.

 

First, I don't know if I'd EVER trade a hitter like Myers unless it brought back a similar pitching prospect (a reverse of the Garza/Young deal, for example). Second, I sure as hell wouldn't advocate betting the farm (literally) on a 72-90 team with a pretty bad offense. I think too many Twins fans are so tired of seeing a risk-averse front office that they've started to believe any risk is a good one... Well, that simply isn't the case. Moore forced "contention" upon a Royals team that isn't ready. Sure, they have an outside shot at the playoffs... But it's little more than a Hail Mary at this point. They're 8.5 games out of first right now and have to pass a handful of pretty good teams to cinch a WC berth and we're closing in on mid-August.

 

And after this season, they lose Ervin Santana, which will make contention in 2014 even more difficult than it was this season. I cannot fathom how anyone think it was a good idea to trade the #4 prospect away from a 72-90, 12th ranked OPS+ offense for two years of James Shields.

[Major League Ready]

No, the drop off is a little surprising but you continue to ignore that KC had one of the worst lineups in baseball last season. They would have needed to make huge strides to even be league average.

 

Duplicate post. Sorry.

[TheLeviathan]

All I know is that if Ryan sees Sano, Rosario, and Buxton are up and had typical early career struggles and anticipates their talent pogressing them as hitters and pounces on an available ace....I won't shae your current quibbles.

[Brock Beauchamp]

All I know is that if Ryan sees Sano, Rosario, and Buxton are up and had typical early career struggles and anticipates their talent pogressing them as hitters and pounces on an available ace....I won't shae your current quibbles.

 

Except that the scenario played out by the Royals involves trading Buxton after Sano, Rosario, Arcia, and Hicks all scuffle. Would you really want to see that after a 72-90 finish to a season?

 

And this is purely anecdotal but I found it mildly amusing.

 

2013 FG WAR:

 

Shields: 2.4

Myers: 1.7 after being called up mid-season to extend service time

[Major League Ready]

I would have to agree with the logic that you wait until a developing team has demonstrated they have arrived, not anticipate they are going to arrive, before you trade away an elite prospect like Meyers for a 2-year asset. There we those who were adamanent about Hick's starting the season with the big club. We would have had some angry fans had Masto not gotten hurt and been given the job out of camp. We have people talking about rushing Sano and Buxton too even after witnessing the result of rushing Hicks and Arcia. Everyone is in a hurry and some things just should not be rushed.

 

We should also ask, how likely was the acquisition of James Shields to propel KC past Detroit. Not very likely IMO. Detroit has twopitchers not named Verlander who have a considerably better ERA and another .16 ERA points higher. If Verlander were not having a somewhat down year, Shields would be the #4 guy in Detroit's rotation. I would have liked their chances alot better two years from now with Will Meyers and an aging Detroit team. Had KC been a little more patient, they would have been in considerably better position to win the division. Now, unless they can somehow make-up 8 games on a red hot Detroit team, they have squandered a really valuable asset and deminished their chances to be a contender for a longer period of time. I am glad they made this move because 2015 and beyond they would have been quite a bit better with Meyers.

[Seth Stohs]

I never had a big problem with signing Kevin Correia, though I never understood the need for the second year. That said, he's on a bad run now, and he was on a good run early, and it'll all even itself out to something like a 4.50-4.90 ERA. On a horrible team, whose bullpen is used so much, the fact that he is on pace to hit 180-190 innings this year makes him worth that $5 million. Again, don't get the second year, but for one year, the deal is fine.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would have to agree with the logic that you wait until a developing team has demonstrated they have arrived, not anticipate they are going to arrive, before you trade away an elite prospect like Meyers for a 2-year asset. There we those who were adamanent about Hick's starting the season with the big club. We would have had some angry fans had Masto not gotten hurt and been given the job out of camp. We have people talking about rushing Sano and Buxton too even after witnessing the result of rushing Hicks and Arcia. Everyone is in a hurry and some things just should not be rushed.

 

We should also ask, how likely was the acquisition of James Shields to propel KC past Detroit. Not very likely IMO. Detroit has twopitchers not named Verlander who have a considerably better ERA and another .16 ERA points higher. If Verlander were not having a somewhat down year, Shields would be the #4 guy in Detroit's rotation. I would have liked their chances alot better two years from now with Will Meyers and an aging Detroit team. Had KC been a little more patient, they would have been in considerably better position to win the division. Now, unless they can somehow make-up 8 games on a red hot Detroit team, they have squandered a really valuable asset and deminished their chances to be a contender for a longer period of time. I am glad they made this move because 2015 and beyond they would have been quite a bit better with Meyers.

 

This pretty much sums up my point. There was no need to force things now and I only expect this division to weaken, not improve. KC's window looked perfect in 2014-2016... Detroit should begin to falter, Minnesota won't quite be there, Chicago is hopeless... That leaves Cleveland to worry about and they're not exactly the most imposing team in the league.

[Mike Sixel]

Yup, a MLB team should just keep punting contention until every star is aligned perfectly, then sign legit FAs or make trades. And, they should keep charging MLB prices while doing so. That's the argument, right?

 

Dayton Moore might not have a job in 2 years......Did I love the trade? No. Do I understand the trade, and not think it is the worst idea ever? Yes.

 

Seth, no way KC has an ERA around 4.5 at the end of the year. We'll be lucky if he sees that number at any time in the next 15 months.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yup, a MLB team should just keep punting contention until every star is aligned perfectly, then sign legit FAs or make trades. And, they should keep charging MLB prices while doing so. That's the argument, right?

 

No, the argument is that you don't try to hammer a 72-90 team into contention because you're impatient.

 

That's a 20 game swing to contention. That's a bloody difficult feat. You don't have to wait until the stars align perfectly but you should wait until you have a solid core, not hopes and prayers.

 

The Twins might finish with a 72-90 record this season. How would you feel about Ryan offloading Buxton for a two year rental of a pitcher? Seems a bit premature, doesn't it?

[Mike Sixel]

Come on, they don't have Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Hicks up here.....it's not even close to the same situation Brock. We've been over this in the thread already.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Come on, they don't have Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Hicks up here.....it's not even close to the same situation Brock. We've been over this in the thread already.

 

On the other hand, they have a legit MLB superstar on the roster... Something Kansas City hasn't had since George Brett.

 

It's not the exact same situation, but they're comparable. The point is that if you can't even clear

 

Kansas City has sucked for almost 30 years. What's the rush? Why not wait one more season if it gives you a window of 4-5 years instead of 1-2?

[Mike Sixel]

Because Moore might not have a job after this year if they are not at least competitive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Because Moore might not have a job after this year if they are not at least competitive.

 

Is that the way you want a GM to run a franchise? With retaining his job as a priority over the longterm health of the team?

 

I consider it a massive failure on everyone's part if it wasn't made clear by both parties (ownership and front office) that Moore was going to be given a long enough leash to see this through to completion without fear of losing his job. It took him years to get to this point and he should have been assured that he'd be given a little leash to see it through to the end.

[Major League Ready]

Is that the way you want a GM to run a franchise? With retaining his job as a priority over the longterm health of the team?

 

I consider it a massive failure on everyone's part if it wasn't made clear by both parties (ownership and front office) that Moore was going to be given a long enough leash to see this through to completion without fear of losing his job. It took him years to get to this point and he should have been assured that he'd be given a little leash to see it through to the end.

 

We have an instant gratification culture today. The GMs job is no maximize assets and manage for sustainability as much as possible. That's what my mentor told me the first time I had that type of role.

 

This decision did not consider the relative positions of each club that you just described. KC is in a position to contend in the coming years but this trade deminished that position beyond 2015. KC took a largeleap of faith for the sake of expediency. There is no question IMO that this manuever would have had a better chance of success a couple years from now when their core is entering their prime and Detroit's key players are getting past their prime.

 

In theory, if they wait a year or two ...

 

* They trade their next top prospect(s)

* That adds Meyers to their core. The cast supporting this move is therefore stronger

* KCs players have two more years of development and are in or entering their prime

* Detroit is likely to have declined and will have very large contract prohibiting FA moves

[drjim]

Is that the way you want a GM to run a franchise? With retaining his job as a priority over the longterm health of the team?

 

I consider it a massive failure on everyone's part if it wasn't made clear by both parties (ownership and front office) that Moore was going to be given a long enough leash to see this through to completion without fear of losing his job. It took him years to get to this point and he should have been assured that he'd be given a little leash to see it through to the end.

 

It's also possible ownership pushed it as hard as Moore if not moreso.

[TheLeviathan]

Except that the scenario played out by the Royals involves trading Buxton after Sano, Rosario, Arcia, and Hicks all scuffle. Would you really want to see that?

 

Probably not but that hasn't been your point. this has been more about timing than about value.

 

Play that out though and we will go back to your original point I didn't like: what if, after Buxton, you have no other significant trade chips...leaving you with no pitching to help that young offense. which is again why having elite pitching available and the assets to get it are not such bountiful opportunities. ITs beyond poly-annish to think these scenarios are regular and commonplace.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Probably not but that hasn't been your point. this has been more about timing than about value.

 

Play that out though and we will go back to your original point I didn't like: what if, after Buxton, you have no other significant trade chips...leaving you with no pitching to help that young offense. which is again why having elite pitching available and the assets to get it are not such bountiful opportunities. ITs beyond poly-annish to think these scenarios are regular and commonplace.

 

I had issues with this trade from day one and those issues were for a myriad of reasons, not only based around timing.

 

1. The Royals offense wasn't very good in 2012 and Myers was the #4 prospect in baseball, ready to help the MLB club

2. The Royals were 72-90 last season and required a 20 game swing to compete

3. The Royals play in a division that looks to weaken, not strengthen in the next 2-3 seasons

4. The Royals are a small market franchise with limited ability to compete on an open market, making prospects even more valuable to them than most other teams

 

My argument has never been limited to one point, though timing is certainly a consideration. There are a host of reasons why I was against this trade the moment it happened and the season has played out pretty much how I envisioned it happening, albeit with a few twists. Santana has over-performed while the Royals offense has managed to be even worse than they were last season... But the end result is pretty much the same. The Royals are a fringe contender and without a small miracle, will probably be worse in 2014 because they won't be able to afford Santana (who has been as good, if not better, than Shields). And then they lose Shields next season.

 

Arguing "what if the Royals have no prospects to trade in two years" is a moot point. If they have no prospects to trade, they're not going to be any good no matter what Moore does or doesn't do but that doesn't validate walking out on a very shaky limb to accelerate the process in 2013. Blindly firing bullets into the trees won't make you a good hunter, even if you get lucky and occasionally hit something. Moore spent over half a decade prepping the Royals to be a contender. What was the bloody rush to make it happen in 2013?

[Willihammer]

What was the bloody rush to make it happen in 2013?

 

We're comin

[Kwak]

Is that the way you want a GM to run a franchise? With retaining his job as a priority over the longterm health of the team?

 

I consider it a massive failure on everyone's part if it wasn't made clear by both parties (ownership and front office) that Moore was going to be given a long enough leash to see this through to completion without fear of losing his job. It took him years to get to this point and he should have been assured that he'd be given a little leash to see it through to the end.

 

That strategy was used by many a company--to its woe! Management played it safe, built an insulating bureaucracy and acted as if they were the actual owners. Something like government. Examine the Twins. Built-up to be just good enough to convince the public to fund a stadium--but never extending themselves to seriously threaten baseball royalty. Sounds a lot like what you advocate. In fact, I believe that the actual Twins policy is as you describe. Ryan (in corporate speak) is a turnaround specialist. Eliminate unproductive assets and wasteful spending and build a profitable team. I wouldn't at all be surprised that there is a "Five year Plan" complete with full ownership backing.

[nicksaviking]

That strategy was used by many a company--to its woe! Management played it safe, built an insulating bureaucracy and acted as if they were the actual owners. Something like government. Examine the Twins. Built-up to be just good enough to convince the public to fund a stadium--but never extending themselves to seriously threaten baseball royalty. Sounds a lot like what you advocate. In fact, I believe that the actual Twins policy is as you describe. Ryan (in corporate speak) is a turnaround specialist. Eliminate unproductive assets and wasteful spending and build a profitable team. I wouldn't at all be surprised that there is a "Five year Plan" complete with full ownership backing.

 

Wow, that's more cynical than I can manage. Not saying it's not true, I just believe that management thinks they CAN win with a low payroll with a roster made up of cheap young assets because they were within shouting distance of doing it last decade.

 

I just think it's a long shot and using free agency on upgrades, not fillers increases the odds.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That strategy was used by many a company--to its woe! Management played it safe, built an insulating bureaucracy and acted as if they were the actual owners. Something like government. Examine the Twins. Built-up to be just good enough to convince the public to fund a stadium--but never extending themselves to seriously threaten baseball royalty. Sounds a lot like what you advocate. In fact, I believe that the actual Twins policy is as you describe. Ryan (in corporate speak) is a turnaround specialist. Eliminate unproductive assets and wasteful spending and build a profitable team. I wouldn't at all be surprised that there is a "Five year Plan" complete with full ownership backing.

 

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see how this response has anything to do with my post.

[TheLeviathan]

What you call a bloody rush, I think many would call "about damn time". Shields is their very affordable asset for another year - be it as a contributor or a trade chip.

 

Moments available to add elite pitching from outside your organization are not commonplace. They may have mistimed or given up too much, but the notion that in two years the same scenario is still going to be sitting there defies reality about how much affordable signed, cost controlled elite pitching is out on the market.

[Mike Sixel]

You asked what the rush was, not what it should be.....if you are the GM, what would you do, only worry about the future guy's job, or your own job too...