The Silver Lining of Kyle Gibson

[Pius Jefferson]

Help me out. So far not so good for Kyle Gibson. The first year coming of TJ surgery some major league growing pains isn't a surprise. What's disappointing for me is who it's been against.

I'm not throwing in the towel, but give me some positives from his starts that Gibson can be a Top 3 starter on a playoff contending team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Help me out. So far not so good for Kyle Gibson. The first year coming of TJ surgery some major league growing pains isn't a surprise. What's disappointing for me is who it's been against.

I'm not throwing in the towel, but give me some positives from his starts that Gibson can be a Top 3 starter on a playoff contending team.

 

Truth be told, I'm not sure what people expected. These things take time, especially for pitchers. I seem to remember a young Scott Baker who got lit up by everyone, except for some odd reason, the Yankees. He's up now, and I'd imagine that his arm is tiring has he hasn't had a full work load in 2 years. He just has to pitch through it.

[MichiganTwins]

He looks tired to me. There is not the same life in his pitches as earlier this season.

[Badsmerf]

His struggles are why I (and many others) felt he was wasting his time in AAA. He is at about 130 innings, so at this point he is pushing his arm. I would have liked to see him up a month earlier so he could adjust while his arm was still strong. I'd really like to keep seeing him get starts, but I doubt he throws a single pitch in September.

 

Truth be told, I felt he would have some immediate success. I'm not talking Cy Gibson, but felt he could end the year with a 4 ERA. That was a little optimistic. See that, I can be bubbly and sunshiney sometimes.

[E. Andrew]

I could see him being tired, but I imagine he'd like to get a good start or two under his belt before he admits it. I wouldn't want to go into the off-season with a debut like this, that's a lot of negative energy to let simmer for 5+ months.

[StormJH1]

Agree with the posters thus far. I had kind of forgotten about the innings limit, but he's at nearly 130 innings between AAA/MLB now, so the end may be near.

 

I'm not passing any judgment on Gibson's staying power in the majors based on his early returns. There's also the post-Tommy John effect that may be holding him back some.

 

But what worries me the most about him as anything more than a middle-rotation guy is that he just doesn't miss bats all that much. It'd be easy for a Twins fan to miss this fact (Santana and '06 Liriano excepted), but strikeout pitchers who come up and struggle are still usually able to strikeout a good number of guys, even if their overall numbers are hampered by control problems or leaving mistakes over the plate and getting hit.

 

This is a guy that even in Single-A and Double-A as a 22 year old (and pre-TJ surgery), was never really an elite strikeout pitcher. He profiles as more of a Baker/Slowey type, though I'd be thrilled if he ever strikes guys out at the rate Baker did in the majors (mid-to-high 7's in K/9 rate). Fans dump on Baker constantly for being hurt and for his rough stretches, but if you factor in all of Liriano's injuries and inconsistencies, Baker was pretty clearly the best starter for this team going back to 2006.

[nicksaviking]

I hope it is a tired arm issue because the growing pians bit doesn't seem to be affecting many other top prospects. Gibson was a top prospect, but maybe he was never a "top prospect." How many other stud pitchers have recently come up and are now destroying the competition? I sure hope Kohl Stewart is one of those guys because no one else is crusing through the system like Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller or Jose Fernandez.

 

As Storm mentioned, Gibson just doesn't miss enough bats. The youngstes that do seem to have a much eaiser transition.

[Willihammer]

I thought you were going to say, with all these crummy starts the silver lining is he won't be approaching an innings limit any time soon

[Nick Nelson]

Positives regarding Gibson:

 

1) Even with his struggles, his GB rate is above 50 percent, and his swinging strike % is highest of all Twins starters at 7.9.

 

2) He's getting these clunkers out of the way now, so hopefully he can enter the offseason knowing what he needs to do get fixed and enter next season healthy, strong and ready to roll.

[Craig Arko]

If his arm is getting tired, it's likely affecting the movement on his pitches. With more movement, he misses more bats, wouldn't you think?

 

I'm guessing maybe a couple more starts, and then he gets shut down.

[Kwak]

I think a comparision to Pelfrey is in order. Pelfrey is only 1 year removed from surgery compared to two for Gibson. So much for the "slow as you go theory". Pelfrey appears to have regained whatever he had lost. Pelfrey's results too tepid for your tastes?--Maybe he wasn't as good as advertised. But to me, the biggest difference I se between them is that Pelfrey fights--every pitch, AB, inning. He loses several of these scrapes, but doesn't stop. Gibson emits an odor of arrogance. He believes he's just that good that he will prevail [somehow]. But he sure doesn't display that he is a budding dominant pitcher. Maybe an off-season will change his attitude. I sure hope so because there is a lot riding on Gibson being one of the cornerstones of a "new" Twins.

[powrwrap]

give me some positives from his starts that Gibson can be a Top 3 starter on a playoff contending team.

 

He had a good sinker in his first couple of starts.

 

That's all I've got for positives.

 

Honestly, I don't see what all the hullabaloo is about. He throws 92 mph (mostly) and sometimes hits 93-94. Looks a lot like Nick Blackburn to me. I doubt he'd make a top 3 starter on most teams.

[PseudoSABR]

His struggles are why I (and many others) felt he was wasting his time in AAA.

Right, but if he was doing well, you could argue it was also a mistake to leave him in AAA. You can't have it both ways. The fact that he's tired or struggling, doesn't at all mean he would have found success sooner, if anything, his current struggles give some legitimacy to the notion that he wasn't ready.

 

The 130 innings was always an arbitrary marker for the Twins, given how cautious they've been in handling pitchers coming off of injury--I think they would be quick to shut Gibson down if he it was clear he was substantially wearing down.

[Halsey Hall]

Help me out. So far not so good for Kyle Gibson. The first year coming of TJ surgery some major league growing pains isn't a surprise. What's disappointing for me is who it's been against.

I'm not throwing in the towel, but give me some positives from his starts that Gibson can be a Top 3 starter on a playoff contending team.

 

There aren't any to give.

[nicksaviking]

There aren't any to give.

 

His left arm is showing no ill effects of the TJ surgery.

[kab21]

His struggles are why I (and many others) felt he was wasting his time in AAA. He is at about 130 innings, so at this point he is pushing his arm. I would have liked to see him up a month earlier so he could adjust while his arm was still strong. I'd really like to keep seeing him get starts, but I doubt he throws a single pitch in September.

 

 

He routinely got lit up in AAA early in the season. Overall his numbers were okay but things could have been ugly in the majors. Or we could have had more of this 6+ERA that he is currently putting up.

 

I think Gibson starting in the minors and staying down for as long as he did had to with him not looking great even though he threw some nice games.

[Mike Sixel]

He's getting his first taste of the majors, and struggles, in a year that does not matter.

[ThePuck]

He's getting his first taste of the majors, and struggles, in a year that does not matter.

 

You talking about Hicks, Arcia or Gibson with that statement? :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

He profiles as more of a Baker/Slowey type

 

I think this fact is overlooked by a lot of fans. Gibson was selected a little earlier in the draft, and had a bit better draft pedigree, but even accounting for his surgery, nothing about his pro career thus far suggests he will be any better than Baker or Slowey, probably around a ~100 ERA+ guy overall (although Baker worked in a couple 120+ years). With good health, that can be valuable, but probably only an "ace" on a weaker starting staff.

[Boone]

Silver lining #1: His fastball is averaging slightly over 92 mph, which would place him in the top 35 amongst qualified starters.

 

Silver lining #2: His GB rate is 51.9%, which would place him 13th amongst qualified starters.

 

Silver lining #3: His GB/FB rate is 1.97, which would place him 10th among qualified starter.

 

Silver lining #4: Only 3 qualified pitchers have as high a GB%, GB/FB ratio, and average FB velocity as Gibson.

 

Silver lining #5: Gibson gets hitters to swing at 32.8% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone, good for the top 25 in all of baseball.

 

Gibson has done a few things really well this year: throw his fastball hard, generate tons of groundballs, and get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone.

[kab21]

I think this fact is overlooked by a lot of fans. Gibson was selected a little earlier in the draft, and had a bit better draft pedigree, but even accounting for his surgery, nothing about his pro career thus far suggests he will be any better than Baker or Slowey, probably around a ~100 ERA+ guy overall (although Baker worked in a couple 120+ years). With good health, that can be valuable, but probably only an "ace" on a weaker starting staff.

 

Nobody should have expected Gibson to be an ace ever.

[nicksaviking]

He's getting his first taste of the majors, and struggles, in a year that does not matter.

 

Very true, this is the silver lining. Had the Twins been competitive (yuk, yuk) Gibson's struggles would have made it difficult to keep him at the MLB level.

[powrwrap]

Silver lining #1: His fastball is averaging slightly over 92 mph, which would place him in the top 35 amongst qualified starters.

 

A starter that throws 92 mph is nothing to be proud of. I would call it a copper lining.

 

Silver lining #2: His GB rate is 51.9%, which would place him 13th amongst qualified starters.

 

Well, since he's not a qualified starter, how many other starters have this high of a GB rate, but don't have the qualifying innings?

 

 

Silver lining #3: His GB/FB rate is 1.97, which would place him 10th among qualified starter.

 

OK, that's pretty impressive.

 

Silver lining #4: Only 3 qualified pitchers have as high a GB%, GB/FB ratio, and average FB velocity as Gibson.

 

That's nice.

 

Silver lining #5: Gibson gets hitters to swing at 32.8% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone, good for the top 25 in all of baseball.

 

And how many of them are hitting these pitches? Because his SO rate is nothing special and his WHIP of 1.68 is pathetic. "His WHIP of 1.68 would place him 91st among qualified starters (out of 92.)"

 

Gibson has done a few things really well this year: throw his fastball hard

 

Sorry, a 92 mph fastball is not being thrown "hard".

 

generate tons of groundballs,

 

Which isn't doing him or his team any good , as witnessed by the 1.68 WHIP and .325 BA against.

 

and get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone.

 

Yet he's not a strikeout pitcher. Hmm...

[powrwrap]

Nobody should have expected Gibson to be an ace ever.

 

Not even Sid Hartman?

[Mave]

Gibson emits an odor of arrogance. He believes he's just that good that he will prevail [somehow]. But he sure doesn't display that he is a budding dominant pitcher. Maybe an off-season will change his attitude. I sure hope so because there is a lot riding on Gibson being one of the cornerstones of a "new" Twins.

 

Everything I have read about Gibson is that he is noted for being a hard worker, a smart pitcher, a class act (as per much of Seth's writing on here, twitter...), and very active in the community. When a guy is noted for these attributes on team with a track record for being partial to these types of players, I believe it says a lot about one's character--the kind of guy I wouldn't mind seeing as a clubhouse leader for these "new Twins" for years to come.

 

I think an off-season will change him, but in the sense that he can keep on rehabilitating and getting himself physically ready for a full season at Target Field in 2014.

[drjim]

I think a comparision to Pelfrey is in order. Pelfrey is only 1 year removed from surgery compared to two for Gibson. So much for the "slow as you go theory". Pelfrey appears to have regained whatever he had lost. Pelfrey's results too tepid for your tastes?--Maybe he wasn't as good as advertised. But to me, the biggest difference I se between them is that Pelfrey fights--every pitch, AB, inning. He loses several of these scrapes, but doesn't stop. Gibson emits an odor of arrogance. He believes he's just that good that he will prevail [somehow]. But he sure doesn't display that he is a budding dominant pitcher. Maybe an off-season will change his attitude. I sure hope so because there is a lot riding on Gibson being one of the cornerstones of a "new" Twins.

 

I prefer confidence to arrogance. That should be a good thing going forward.

 

If he can get his k rate to 7-8 per 9 he will be a solid 2-3 starter. I am hesitant to make any conclusions until the beginning of next season.