26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[howieramone1406390264]

Passing on Guerrero because the Twins have Florimon and Santana would be like passing on Tanaka because the Twins have Liam Hendricks and Trevor May. It wouldn't make any sense.

 

And a shortstop drafted in 2014 probably wouldn't reach the majors until a 6 year Guerrero deal would be nearly over. A year or two of overlap would be a tears-of-joy inducing change of pace from the 20 years of wandering in the wilderness the franchise has experienced at that position since the departure of Gagne.

 

Take a look at the SS from North Carolina State. The point is Ryan has a much bigger and clearer picture than we do. Florimon and Santana will both remain at SS, Guerrero it's not as sure. You do realize the highest pro league in Cuba is equivalent to Class A+.

[Mike Sixel]

Take a look at the SS from North Carolina State. The point is Ryan has a much bigger and clearer picture than we do. Florimon and Santana will both remain at SS, Guerrero it's not as sure. You do realize the highest pro league in Cuba is equivalent to Class A+.

 

 

We can never question him and his decisions, that is the crux of your argument. It is called an appeal to authority, and it basically says "no arguing / disagreeing, ever".

[cmb0252]

Please someone, anyone, make an argument for signing Guerrero based on scouting reports and data. In 17 pages of this thread no one has made a solid argument why we should sign him outside of not being cheap. Everyone who thinks he will be a SS even though most experts don't agree make the argument. People who believe he can hit major league pitching even though there are question marks about his ability to hit breaking pitch make an argument. People who think he will be able to immediately adjust to a significantly harder league after taking two years off make the argument.

 

Whining about every player Ryan doesn't sign because"Ryan is cheap" is lazy. Please, explain to us why it was a mistake not to sign this guy because of actual data.

[LaBombo]

Take a look at the SS from North Carolina State. The point is Ryan has a much bigger and clearer picture than we do. Florimon and Santana will both remain at SS, Guerrero it's not as sure. You do realize the highest pro league in Cuba is equivalent to Class A+.

You do realize that Florimon is batting .224/.280/.334, right? He's just there because the Twins need someone to stand there with a glove on until they can find a good shortstop.

 

Given the MLB success rate of Twins position players who've posted nice numbers at AA New Britain, I have no idea why the Twins would avoid signing a free agent shortstop because of anything Danny Santana has done.

 

Whether the Twins might land a shortstop prospect. in a draft that's still almost a year away, even if it's the highly-prized NC State kid who had to be restrained from attacking an ump, shouldn't have anything to do with how they address the next 5-7 years at that position.

 

And yes, Cuban ball isn't the majors. Maybe that's why MLB pitchers have caught up to Puig so easily, sending his OPS plummeting all the way down to .964.

[cmb0252]

Like I said earlier, appeal to authority arguments have no merit with me......I'm assuming from your last sentence you have no opinions on any players, then?

 

EDIT:

In fairness, you may be deferring to the scouts this time because you've never seen him play, and you might have opinions on players you have seen.

 

I have tons of opinions on players. I have been leading the bandwagon for signing Tanaka since I read his scouting reports. Signing Guerrero isn't like signing Willngham, Greinke, or other established big leaguers. International guys are a lot more difficult to peg. Especially ones who haven't player in two years. Is it really that hard for people to think the Twins didn't sign him because they weren't all that impressed?

[MichiganTwins]

You do realize that Florimon is batting .224/.280/.334, right? He's just there because the Twins need someone to stand there with a glove on until they can find a good shortstop.

 

Given the MLB success rate of Twins position players who've posted nice numbers at AA New Britain, I have no idea why the Twins would avoid signing a free agent shortstop because of anything Danny Santana has done.

 

Whether the Twins might land a shortstop prospect. in a draft that's still almost a year away, even if it's the highly-prized NC State kid who had to be restrained from attacking an ump, shouldn't have anything to do with how they address the next 5-7 years at that position.

 

And yes, Cuban ball isn't the majors. Maybe that's why MLB pitchers have caught up to Puig so easily, sending his OPS plummeting all the way down to .964.

 

Yes because every Cuba player has the same success as Puig. You are right good point.

[notoriousgod71]

Well, the Dodgers just signed him. They really broke the bank too.

 

Dodgers sign Alexander Guerrero - MLB Daily Dish

[OldTwinky]

NO! We will simply complain about Ryan being cheap until he isn't! Then and only then will we change our complaining. Then, we'll complain endlessly about how irresponsibly he spends money and how out of date his methods are for choosing who to spend the money on. It will never end because Terry Ryan is a schill put there to take this heat, and he's paid handsomely for it, so that little weeny Pohlad can sit there and pretend this wasn't the plan all along, so he can pretend he didn't intentionally defraud the Minnesota tax payers. Yup, it's all Terry Ryan's choice to field a terrible team and look incompetent in the public's eye. We all like being perceived as failures.

[LaBombo]

Yes because every Cuba player has the same success as Puig. You are right good point.

The same Dodgers scouting department that wanted Puig liked his fellow Cuban Guerrero, and the Dodgers gave him a similar deal.

 

But I guess that if you had some sort of actual point about why Puig isn't relevant when someone claims that there's some sort of huge risk in using Cuban ball as a gauge of prospects, I guess you would have made it instead of going with the sarcasm.

[LaBombo]

Please someone, anyone, make an argument for signing Guerrero based on scouting reports and data. In 17 pages of this thread no one has made a solid argument why we should sign him outside of not being cheap. Everyone who thinks he will be a SS even though most experts don't agree make the argument. People who believe he can hit major league pitching even though there are question marks about his ability to hit breaking pitch make an argument. People who think he will be able to immediately adjust to a significantly harder league after taking two years off make the argument.

 

Whining about every player Ryan doesn't sign because"Ryan is cheap" is lazy.

I'm pretty sure that if you go back and re-read the thread, someone probably argued that it would be nice to add a very good middle infield prospect to an organization that's been dreadful at developing them for quite a while.

 

Yes, Guerrero's a prospect. Hence the term. There are no guarantees.

 

Well, there's at least one guarantee. However Guerrero develops as a player, he won't be doing it as a Twin.

[cmb0252]

The same Dodgers scouting department that wanted Puig liked his fellow Cuban Guerrero, and the Dodgers gave him a similar deal.

 

But I guess that if you had some sort of actual point about why Puig isn't relevant when someone claims that there's some sort of huge risk in using Cuban ball as a gauge of prospects, I guess you would have made it instead of going with the sarcasm.

 

Puig isn't relevant. Puig was highly touted 21 year old Cuban prospect who was considered raw but had a super star ceiling. Guerrero is a 26 year old 2B who hasnt played baseball in two years and most likely will start next year in AAA or possibly AA. None one has suggested he is anything more than an above average regular with some reports suggesting he is a utility player. Outside of being Cuban and signing with the Dodgers I don't see reason to compare the two.

[LaBombo]

Well, the Dodgers just signed him. They really broke the bank too.

 

Dodgers sign Alexander Guerrero - MLB Daily Dish

 

Yup... about $5 million a year for about 6 years. It's borderline Pujolesque.

 

Almost as much over the life of the deal as the Twins would've payed Blackburn and Nishi not to play for the Twins, had Nishi not generously given back the money.

[darin617]

How much would you have to over pay any player to want to play in Minnesota? No pitching staff and the hope of the future tied to the success of some top prospects (I prefer to call them lottery tickets since many never pan out like you hope).

 

At least the Pohlad boys are raking in the money and we are suckers for putting up with such a poor product they put on the field.

[cmb0252]

And trotting out that tired counter-attack every time he doesn't isn't just lazy, it's comatose.

 

And I'm pretty sure that if you go back and re-read the thread, someone probably argued that it would be nice to add a very good middle infield prospect to an organization that's been dreadful at developing them for quite a while.

 

Yes, Guerrero's a prospect. Hence the term. There are no guarantees.

 

Well, there's at least one guarantee. However Guerrero develops as a player, he won't be doing it as a Twin.

 

Counterattack? Is it so crazy to want the people who are complaining about not signing a guy to use factual information to why they want the Twins to sign a player a counterattack? I just want to hear from someone who actually likes Guerrero. I just don't see what there is to be upset about.

[howieramone1406390264]

You do realize that Florimon is batting .224/.280/.334, right? He's just there because the Twins need someone to stand there with a glove on until they can find a good shortstop.

 

Given the MLB success rate of Twins position players who've posted nice numbers at AA New Britain, I have no idea why the Twins would avoid signing a free agent shortstop because of anything Danny Santana has done.

 

Whether the Twins might land a shortstop prospect. in a draft that's still almost a year away, even if it's the highly-prized NC State kid who had to be restrained from attacking an ump, shouldn't have anything to do with how they address the next 5-7 years at that position.

 

And yes, Cuban ball isn't the majors. Maybe that's why MLB pitchers have caught up to Puig so easily, sending his OPS plummeting all the way down to .964.

 

I don't give up on great field/no hit SS with 502 PA. A team could contend with Florimon and who knows Santana maybe better. The NC State kid think 2 years, not 5-7.

[LaBombo]

Puig isn't relevant. Puig was highly touted 21 year old Cuban prospect who was considered raw but had a super star ceiling. Guerrero is a 26 year old 2B who hasnt played baseball in two years and most likely will start next year in AAA or possibly AA. None one has suggested he is anything more than an above average regular with some reports suggesting he is a utility player. Outside of being Cuban and signing with the Dodgers I don't see reason to compare the two.

Which is why I didn't, any more than you meant to compare him to Nishi in your first post on the thread.

 

Someone felt that Guerrero is this huge risk because Cuban ball 'isn't the majors', making it impossibly difficult to judge his value. That seemed like a weak argument not to consider Guerrero.

 

And it appears you agree with me, since you refer to Puig as "highly touted". How can he possibly be highly touted unless there is strong scouting value in how players perform in Cuban baseball?

 

He'll make about 5 million a year, is probably signed through his age 31 season, and as you say, is potentially an above average middle infielder. How on earth is that anything less than a worthwhile asset for the Twins?

[big dog]

Almost as much over the life of the deal as the Twins would've payed Blackburn and Nishi not to play for the Twins, had Nishi not generously given back the money.

 

To be fair, Nishi had to give back the money so he could be a star in Japan instead of a AA player...

 

I think Ryan is far from infallible, but I'm not worried about losing this guy. We're already wondering what to do with Dozier/Rosario, and this prospect is going to be a 2B. If Ryan doesn't spend the money on pitching, I'm going to be extremely upset. So he's got that to worry about, which probably won't keep him up at night.

[LaBombo]

I just want to hear from someone who actually likes Guerrero.

The Twins did, since it was reported that they were one of only 4 seriously interested teams in the running as recently as 3 weeks ago.

 

Several posters on the first few pages expressed interest based on the scouting reports, most of which look pretty positive, before the discussion eventually devolved into money.

 

It even appears you like him as a player, though not as a signing, since you summarized his perceived ceiling as 'above average regular'.

[snepp]

Wow, I'm tired of people hating on Dozier. What is wrong with you? Dozier has turned into one of the Twins strengths and he is still improving. Second base is not where the problems lay people. Do you even follow the Twins?

I'd like to see him have a long career here.

 

 

Leave out the snooty "what's wrong with you" and "do you even follow the Twins" type of remarks in the future.

 

 

Thanks.

[Guest USAFChief]

Everyone take a deep breath, calm down, and consider the tone of your next post. Seriously.

[LaBombo]

Wow, I'm tired of people hating on Dozier. What is wrong with you? Dozier has turned into one of the Twins strengths and he is still improving. Second base is not where the problems lay people. Do you even follow the Twins?

I'd like to see him have a long career here.

Dozier's defense has been strong, his overall improvement has been a pleasant surprise, and he's the most valuable infielder on the roster.

 

That being said, he still can't hit right handed pitching. He's Kirby Puckett against lefties, but Steve Lombardozzi Sr. against right-handers. Nothing against him, but he's just not the kind of player yet who makes the franchise so strong at second base that you forget about improving the position. Hope he can still be that player, even though he'll already be 27 next season.

[dgwills]

Wow, I'm tired of people hating on Dozier. What is wrong with you? Dozier has turned into one of the Twins strengths and he is still improving. Second base is not where the problems lay people. Do you even follow the Twins?

I'd like to see him have a long career here.

To be fair, that was written a while ago. I do agree with you though. Between Dozier and Rosario the twins should be good at second base. I wonder it Doziers improvement caused the Twins not to sign Guerrero. It would make sense to me.

[nicksaviking]

Please someone, anyone, make an argument for signing Guerrero based on scouting reports and data. In 17 pages of this thread no one has made a solid argument why we should sign him outside of not being cheap.

 

Whining about every player Ryan doesn't sign because"Ryan is cheap" is lazy. Please, explain to us why it was a mistake not to sign this guy because of actual data.

 

FYI, defending Ryan by calling his detractors "whiners" and "lazy" itself sounds like lazy whining to our ears.

 

I've stated in every one of my posts today that I wasn't neccisarily advocating to sign Guerrero; if he can't play SS, I'm not interested, though I imagine the reports about the absolute impossibility of him playing there are way overblown. I've simply been refuting the rediculous notion that he is too expensive for the Twins and they shouldn't dare bid against the dreaded Dodgers.

 

It's this kind of signing (if SS is a possibility) that makes sense though. I don't understand your thinking on these international players. It seems to me Ryan and his supporters are waiting on free agency until a reasonably priced, can't-miss player comes available that the other 29 teams mysteriously pass on.

 

How can you argue the Twins can't compete against the Dodgers on a low per year deal for Guerrero and also state you think Ryan will be able to get the safer and more valued Tanaka? He'll have to compete against a ton of teams for Tanaka and pay a posting fee, good luck. If the conservative Twins are going to make a splash in the international market, they're going to have to go after a guy with question marks, they're not going to get the sure bet top of the rotation arm and I'm not sure how your convincing yourself otherwise.

 

Additionally, at this point I'd much rather trust the Dodgers scouts regarding international players. They've figured out Asia and Cuba better than the Twins have.

[nicksaviking]

I don't give up on great field/no hit SS with 502 PA. A team could contend with Florimon and who knows Santana maybe better. The NC State kid think 2 years, not 5-7.

 

But why would you even want to try?! This is insane. A team that could contend with Florimon also likley has plus hitters at the other positions. And they'd still look to upgrade at the trade deadline.

 

Also, what does the draft have to do with international free agents? Only one team is getting Turner, what if he goes number three and the Twins are picking 5th? Any GM that passes on free agents based on an assumed draft pick nine months before the draft needs to be fired and banned from baseball for clearly screwing with the integrity of the game.

[jorgenswest]

I was hopeful the Twins would sign him. However, he only helps if he is at least an average defender at SS. If he has to play 2B as some reports suggest, he is not a good fit at the reported contract. The Twins have two low cost solutions at 2B.

 

The Dodgers are in a better spot. They need a 2B. They have enough resources to risk millions on a players that may not be very good.

[TheLeviathan]

At this point, it should just be expected we won't make significant, somewhat risky additions to the team until proven otherwise.

 

Every other excuse just doesn't fly when there is absolutely nothing to counteract the tendency of avoiding such deals.

[PseudoSABR]

Honestly, it's hard for me to get worked up about not spending money on a position where we have two players for the future (Dozier, Rosario). There's no credible reason to doubt the scouting reports on his ability to play shortstop. And his bat doesn't seem quite good enough to pay for, if he's not playing in the middle infield. He would have been nice asset, but it's hard for me to impugn the Twins on this.

[Oxtung]

Wow, I'm tired of people hating on Dozier. What is wrong with you? Dozier has turned into one of the Twins strengths and he is still improving. Second base is not where the problems lay people. Do you even follow the Twins?

I'd like to see him have a long career here.

 

Does anyone else think it's funny when a poster comes on strong, tosses a few insults in for good measure, but totally whiffs on an obvious point, for instance, that I wrote that post a month ago when Dozier was OPS'ing .695 and was anything but a "strength"?

[Oxtung]

I still don't understand why people think we shouldn't sign him. Did signing Nishi hurt the Twins (other than the fact they let Hardy go)?

 

1) If he works out at SS, awesome.

2) If he works out a 2B, awesome now you've got a trade piece.

3) If he fails the Twins are out a few million dollars they won't be spending anyways.

 

Where is the downside here?

[maxisagod]

Honestly, it's hard for me to get worked up about not spending money on a position where we have two players for the future (Dozier, Rosario). There's no credible reason to doubt the scouting reports on his ability to play shortstop. And his bat doesn't seem quite good enough to pay for, if he's not playing in the middle infield. He would have been nice asset, but it's hard for me to impugn the Twins on this.

 

I think it the general concern that the Twins aren't making a play in a market, that's becoming a pipeline for other teams. The Twins were late to the party in the DR, and there late getting back into Cuba. It's nice their dipping their toes in the pool, but they haven't taken a legit dive yet, and when many Cuban prospect are considered more advanced they line up nicely with the core prospects coming up. I understand protecting draft picks, playing under a budget, and not trading under distress, but this is an area they need to take a chance on a put a legit bid in, rather then simply window shop.