26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[Mr. Brooks]

I disagree. Rosario is the real deal. I suppose you could move him back to the outfield. But he's said to be a natural at second. And he's worked hard for two years to learn the position. He's a better hitter than Guerrero. So if you just leave it up for competition, and the better man wins, you've just signed a utility infielder for starting shortstop money.

 

TK said last night during the AA broadcast that Rosario is NOT a natural 2B, but works very hard at it so should be able to stick.

[nfisch22]

 

Here's a video of Guerrero. He looks to have a good arm but his torso and actions seem to be very stiff. His swing is short and quick through the zone but I don't like how much movement he has in his load. He takes a huge step with that front leg

[Guest USAFChief]

I think the K rate gets a little too much hype. Just to make the math easy. If the average start is 6 innings, the difference between starting pitchers with a 6K/9 rate and a 9K/9 rate is two less balls in play.

 

Keeping the math easy, over 30 starts that's 60 balls in play. Assume a .300 BABIP and that's 18 hits, which ignores non-K's might also be HBPs, BBs, or Es.

 

Now multiply that times 5 starters, in the case of the Twins.

 

And as pointed out above, 6 K/9 is generous for the Twins staff.

[cmathewson]

TK said last night during the AA broadcast that Rosario is NOT a natural 2B, but works very hard at it so should be able to stick.

 

Good to know. In TK I trust.

[Mr. Brooks]

Good to know. In TK I trust.

 

Yeah, that was the observation I took from last night's broadcast, that TK was literally born to evaluate and develop baseball talent. I was on the edge of my seat last night at times. The Twins are lucky to have him in even his limited role within the organization.

He is to discussing baseball as Stephen Hawking is to discussing the Universe.

[old nurse]

Keeping the math easy, over 30 starts that's 60 balls in play. Assume a .300 BABIP and that's 18 hits, which ignores non-K's might also be HBPs, BBs, or Es.

 

Now multiply that times 5 starters, in the case of the Twins.

 

And as pointed out above, 6 K/9 is generous for the Twins staff.

 

As you can tell by tonight's game, it is the at bats when you are not striking people out that will kill you. Porcello got the 6 K, the other 15 batters pretty much had fun. Just imagine how much more fun if they had a SS that could hit a HR. Well, a little more often.

[Kobs]

On BYTO, I defended the Nishi move heavily and ultimately was wrong about him. But I absolutely stand by the thinking. We aggressively went after a talent outside our usual M.O. at a position we had been awful at for years. Our execution was poor, but I still praise the thinking behind it.

 

Some people will do what you say here and some will bend their principles to defend the team no matter what on the flip side.....that ain't me.

 

Nishioka was hardly an aggressive move. In fact, his relatively low posting fee was a red flag from the jump. The rest of the league wasn't interested in him.

[TheLeviathan]

Nishioka was hardly an aggressive move. In fact, his relatively low posting fee was a red flag from the jump. The rest of the league wasn't interested in him.

 

We're talking about the Twins here. Relative to that, Nish was very aggressive.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins only risk money in this case. He would not be replacing a Hardy. The Twins would not lose a draft pick.

 

Similar to Nishioka, there isn't a lot of interest. He comes with questions about his defense at SS. However, the Twins still need to outbid the few others. The likelihood, as remote as it is, that Guerrero will be a solid major league SS is greater than Santana or anyone else in the organization.

[diehardtwinsfan]

What if you had to choose between Abreu or Guerrero?

 

I'm not sure that they Twins would have to choose. The money is there to pay these guys during the next wave given that they won't have hardly any big contracts at that point (minus Mauer).

 

That said, if it's a choice, it will come down to a few things. With Guerro, the questions I would have are as follows:

 

1) Can he stick at short defensively?

2) What is a reasonable projection for his bat? .750 OPS? .800? .900?

3) Are Rosario and Dozier the real deal and is moving Dozier back to short an option?

 

For Abreau, I don't see as many questions. I have a tough time believing that the bat isn't for real, and defense at first isn't that big of a deal either. It's looking more and more like Plouffe and Parmelee aren't the answer at 1st long term, and with Justin in decline, it is starting to look like 1B might be a position of need for the next wave. I haven't given up on either of them, but neither have exactly forced the issue.

 

The projections that seem to stick in this thread for Gurrero was a .750 OPS with defense that would be nothing special. If that's the case, I think I'd rather roll the dice with a Rosario/Dozier combo up the middle and put all the cash into Abreau (unless I'm wrong about the projected OPS). Abreau's bat is a difference maker and having him and having a lineup of Buxton, Rosario, Mauer, Abreau, Sano, Arcia, Dozier, Hicks, some DH (or something like that) makes me absolutely drool. I'm pretty sure that lineup could make this pitching staff a .500 team.

[Mike Sixel]

I too would rather have Abreu, but they have the money for both.....

[AROG]

 

Here's a video of Guerrero. He looks to have a good arm but his torso and actions seem to be very stiff. His swing is short and quick through the zone but I don't like how much movement he has in his load. He takes a huge step with that front leg

 

I disagree with the negatives you pointed out. His hands are busy until the ball is in flight, at which time they become completely still, they are in a great position to strike from. His leg kick seems large, but his foot hardly moves, it is more of a timing mechanism then anything. He has a smooth easy swing, short and compact through the zone with great extension.

[bird]

Terry Ryan won't spend what it takes to sign a legit Cuban.[/Q

 

He hasn't in the past.

[kab21]

I think I might lose it if one more person says don't sign him because he won't stick at SS and the Twins already have Rosario. I like Rosario a lot but he's not a guaranteed thing and you can't even say that Rosario will hit better than Guerrero (or vice versa).

 

I think most would prefer signing Abreu but I wouldn't be surprised if Abreu got 80M while Guerrero is probably in the 30-40M range.

[Kobs]

Similar to Nishioka, there isn't a lot of interest. He comes with questions about his defense at SS. However, the Twins still need to outbid the few others. The likelihood, as remote as it is, that Guerrero will be a solid major league SS is greater than Santana or anyone else in the organization.

 

I would not make a judgement that there isn't a lot of interest in this guy. Nishioka's posting fee was nothing for a guy with the "gold glove SS/batting champion" pedigree he was carrying. Unlike this Cuban fella, no one was going to be scared off Nishioka at that price point. Nobody wanted him at any price.

[Tpups21]

Just don't see the Twins winning a bidding war for Guerrero. Not sold on him as a shortstop either.

[nfisch22]

I disagree with the negatives you pointed out. His hands are busy until the ball is in flight, at which time they become completely still, they are in a great position to strike from. His leg kick seems large, but his foot hardly moves, it is more of a timing mechanism then anything. He has a smooth easy swing, short and compact through the zone with great extension.

 

I wasn't saying anything bad about his hands. I personally love his swing. He's got serious ability to drive the ball. That big step though still bothers me even though I know it's just for timing. I would just rather see a smaller step for timing

[S.]

No surprise, but currently sounding like we shouldn't be holding our breath for Abreu or Guerrero. Really getting sick of hearing so much about pricetag BS in all facets of our team. If they don't like a player and they have some real reasons, I can at least maybe, somewhat come to terms with that even if I disagree, but the price excuse is beyond old at this point. Oh, need a nice new field to be able to have higher payroll. Oh, cant sign any good FA pitchers cuz they're "overpriced". Oh, wont eat any of Morneau's salary in a trade. Oh, probably going to only loosely monitor potential cuban superstars because they have "lofty price tags". Sick of it. Price should NOT be the reason unless we're talking ridiculous $200M contracts or something.

 

I guess there is still plenty of season and the whole offseason ahead of us, but I'm not really holding my breath for that either. Please prove me wrong, Twins, and take some risks and make some moves that aren't complete dumpster diving.* Please.

 

 

"Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports that Abreu's lofty price tag will likely lead the Twins to "loosely monitor" him rather than become serious players for his services. He adds that the Twins are still in on Guerrero but not as deeply as other suitors (Twitter links)."

 

 

Edit: *I dont even mean that it has to be Abreu or Guerrero, but good lord, do something better than signing some more Correias and Marquis' and praying it somehow works out better than the last 3 years.

[Mike Sixel]

Shocking, shocking I say.

[nicksaviking]

You guys need to lay off. The Twins are saving their money for the zero-risk, can't-miss superstar that becomes available but the other 29 teams aren't going to bid on.

 

That, or a half dozen replacement level players instead.

[Mike Sixel]

And, nick, that player has to be availalbe 3 or 4 years from now, when every prospect has worked out, and they have only 1 hole to fill.....

[PseudoSABR]

And to appease the negative nancys, Wolfson also tweeted this:

 

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson 5h @enge0280 They may. I just don't get the feel it'll be Abreu. They're still in on SS Guerrero. Bet they'll be in on Japan P Masahiro Tanaka.

[S.]

I'm a realistic nancy. Unfortunately, reality in Twins Town is depressing at the moment.

 

I bet they'll be "in" on Tanaka until they realize so are a ton of other teams and he's gonna cost real money to sign. I'll be happy to eat a giant pile of crow if they go out and make some splashes and prove me wrong, but we're still talking the same FO that was gonna get some pretty darn good pitchers last offseason, in their words.

 

On the Tanaka side, reports on him keep sounding real good.

"In a subscription-only piece, Badler also profiles Tanaka's most recent start in Japan, during which he whiffed eight hitters over seven scoreless innings to improve to 18-0 and drop his ERA to 1.15. Badler notes that Tanaka has "arguably the best splitter in the world," and reached 97 mph with his heater on his 108th pitch of the night."

[Mike Sixel]

And to appease the negative nancys, Wolfson also tweeted this:

 

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson 5h @enge0280 They may. I just don't get the feel it'll be Abreu. They're still in on SS Guerrero. Bet they'll be in on Japan P Masahiro Tanaka.

 

Would love them to try.....and be successful.

[Siehbiscuit]

First of all, to eat a PILE of crow is ridiculous. It's serioulsy nasty sh*#!

 

Secondly, the article on Tanaka makes me willing to eat a pile of crow to sign him.

[Winston Smith]

Saturday Mackey talked to Jim Pohlad and he said again money isn't an issue. There is money to spend. But it seems like all these deals come down to lack money. Somebody, me thinks, is not being fully honest.

http://brightlightsfilm.com/30/30_images/crusoe_magoo.jpg

[nicksaviking]

I want to have high hopes for these MLB ready or near MLB ready international free agents but it's difficult considering how gunshy Ryan is. He has never proven to be willing to make a move anywhere close to resembling the boldness of one of these players.

 

I'm not trying to start another war but I just don't think he has the constitution to pay the money or the years for one of these guys. I hope I'm wrong but his personality always seems to portray a man who stubbornly refuses to go beyond his comfort zone because he fears making a mistake more than he craves to make a good deal.

 

Maybe he'll get lucky and every other team will view Guerrero as a 2B instead of a SS and leave Ryan able to offer a less ulcer-inducing deal for around $5 million per year. Of course if Ryan sticks him at 2B he'll be rippable for once again neglecting positions of need.

[howieramone1406390264]

Saturday Mackey talked to Jim Pohlad and he said again money isn't an issue. There is money to spend. But it seems like all these deals come down to lack money. Somebody, me thinks, is not being fully honest.

http://brightlightsfilm.com/30/30_images/crusoe_magoo.jpg

 

Ryan has said on numerous occasions he will not spend money for the sake of spending money. He has never once blamed the Pohlads for not providing the money he needs to help the ball club. How much more honest can you be?

 

Terry Ryan is rebuilding the Twins as quickly as possible with the full and complete support of the Pohlads. I've seen numerous articles in the national media acknowledging the fine work Ryan has done and predicting an early turnaround for the team.

 

You don't have to like or agree with it, but that's what's happening, and the Twins are not the type of organization to panic and abruptly change course.

[jokin]

Ryan has said on numerous occasions he will not spend money for the sake of spending money. He has never once blamed the Pohlads for not providing the money he needs to help the ball club. How much more honest can you be?

 

Terry Ryan is rebuilding the Twins as quickly as possible with the full and complete support of the Pohlads. I've seen numerous articles in the national media acknowledging the fine work Ryan has done and predicting an early turnaround for the team.

 

You don't have to like or agree with it, but that's what's happening, and the Twins are not the type of organization to panic and abruptly change course.

 

Again I humbly ask, could you please provide some of the links to these articles?

[messier]

I guess I don't know anything really about Tanaka. I've looked at his stats and he's not a strikeout pitcher so what's the point. They need guys like Detroits guys. Starters that are capable of getting 10 K's every night.