Who Will Be the Highest Ranked Free Agent Signed By the Twins?

[Twins GFP]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

A half measure veteran who costs less than ten million. 

This. None of lip service matters. I will not believe the Twins are going to spend any "real" money until they actually spend it (or are force to by the new CBA).

IMO:
-Unless they can get Ty France for a song, Arraez should be their top FA priority. He realistically checks off the most boxes.
-Assuming Jeffers is off the table, I would only go after a Kelly/Stephenson type Catcher on a cheapish one-year contract. Two years if the Twins believe their prospects are not close.
-Volatility in RP makes spending big money there scary. I am fine with them signing guys that will raise the floor.

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Also, you're not fixing the bullpen by throwing money at it. Anyone who watched the playoffs would see this. You absolutely HAVE to put the time and effort in to develop your own relievers and have a scouting department that can recognize which castoffs *might* fit into your plans.  

Of the final four teams, only Tanner Scott of the Dodgers was a big money free agent reliever. And he was terrible in his first season (2025) under contract. Why? Because relievers are finicky and prone to melting down if faced with any change to their environment.

I think the change from the slider-happy Falvey/Johnson/Maki regime to this new FB-centered ethos Reith has been preaching will help a lot.  MIL was working with guys they found, including former Twin Magill, so a change on our end was due.   

Maybe in his formative years Falvey believed small dollar teams like CLE and MIN could never afford the high velo types, whatever, but the truth today is that there are a hundred guys that can hit 100 MPH and every team needs a bunch of them. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Given Zoll is still here, I see more of the same from ownership, and Zoll looks like Falvey 2.0. I don't know who the Twins will sign.

Both Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes at different times have said that they have heard plenty from reps of other orgs that Zoll acts and talks much more aggressively than Falvey did.

Still need to see results, obviously.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Twins GFP said:

This. None of lip service matters. I will not believe the Twins are going to spend any "real" money until they actually spend it (or are force to by the new CBA).

IMO:
-Unless they can get Ty France for a song, Arraez should be their top FA priority. He realistically checks off the most boxes.
-Assuming Jeffers is off the table, I would only go after a Kelly/Stephenson type Catcher on a cheapish one-year contract. Two years if the Twins believe their prospects are not close.
-Volatility in RP makes spending big money there scary. I am fine with them signing guys that will raise the floor.

I’d take Jake Bauers or trading for a 1b with thump before going after Arraez. I like Arraez, but he wouldn’t be my primary target.

I hope they trade for their next catcher assuming Jeffers isn’t back. The free agent options are fairly underwhelming in my opinion.

Agreed on reliever volatility. Curious how that plays out. It’s certainly possible with Reith in tow they like certain guys more than we would assume coming in

[Cris E]

59 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

This. None of lip service matters. I will not believe the Twins are going to spend any "real" money until they actually spend it (or are force to by the new CBA).

IMO:
-Unless they can get Ty France for a song, Arraez should be their top FA priority. He realistically checks off the most boxes.
-Assuming Jeffers is off the table, I would only go after a Kelly/Stephenson type Catcher on a cheapish one-year contract. Two years if the Twins believe their prospects are not close.
-Volatility in RP makes spending big money there scary. I am fine with them signing guys that will raise the floor.

Arraez  is a poor choice because we already have him in a younger, better, cheaper Keaschall. Bauer makes way more sense to this roster because we don't have anyone like him yet.  Buxton can do it for stretches, but Bell probably won't be back and the big stick that's always there in the middle is important to build around. (And not to bash Jim Bowden again, but I just want to bash Jim Bowden again and point out he thinks Lowe can be had for 3/$45m. He's a great backup if Bauer gets too rich.)

Jeffers should be #1 in their plans, but it's quite likely Boras wants to wait things out and wring all possible dollars from this opportunity. It's why he was chosen after all.  And you're not going to get the second or third catcher in this entire offseason on a cheap one year deal, so Kelly/Stephenson will be at least two. That's fine because odds are Lackey won't be a full time starter in 2028 yet. I mean he could be, but if you're building a roster you need to include contingencies, and rookie catchers taking more than a half season to get established is quite common. 

I don't see a huge need for top dollar relievers. I'd like to see one decent old guy to replace Rogers/Minter, so maybe an Adams, Abreau, Vesia or Blackburn type who won't be The Closer by virtue of his signing but could carry the ball if he earns it. Way more risk of volatility in this crew, but far cheaper too. 

Trade Ober now.  Keep Larnach for DH. Keep Lewis with no promised roster spot and trade him the minute anyone wants him; I believe there are a lot of teams that think they can fix him.

[HerbieFan]

Let's hope it's Jeffers

[HerbieFan]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If (as suggested above) the Twins can't afford Arozarena, Lowe, Bichette or Jeffers, than Tom Pohlad's big talk is all hogwash, because this team is more than 50M below where payroll was three years ago; they SHOULD have more money than they possibly could spend on a free agent.

But if they don't, they shouldn't be spending ANY money and need to concentrate on developing their own players into stars because the last thing this franchise needs is to sign a bunch of C tier free agents and tell the fans that these are the big prizes they were promised. 

Well...players still have to want to come here...

[Jacksson]

Who will be the LOWEST Ranked Free Agent signed by the Twins?

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Arraez  is a poor choice because we already have him in a younger, better, cheaper Keaschall.

Arraez hits LH and plays 2B and Keaschall hits RH and is a LF/DH.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

A half measure veteran who costs less than ten million. 

Josh Bell

[Cris E]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Arraez hits LH and plays 2B and Keaschall hits RH and is a LF/DH.

Both are OBP guys with limited power and poor defensive chops leading to a battle to find a defensive position.  Luke has been healthier and shown more power. Luis has only been defensively average once in his career, and since it didn't happen until his age 29 season I'm not confident it's a new baseline that he can be counted on to maintain.  OTOH he seems to have stayed healthy since leaving the Twins, which was a huge knock on him early in his career. But there are far better ways to spend $20m than a slower, weaker Luke Keashall (that also could end up blocking the real Luke Keaschall at 1B or DH.) 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Cris E said:

Both are OBP guys

You’re allowed to have more than one player who gets on base. There are 9 spots in the lineup.

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

Well...players still have to want to come here...

Yup. And the thrifty Brewers and Rays are likely also going to want to spend now, and those spots look more attractive.

So I would rather NOT spend a ton of money in free agency if the team is only going to spend it on whatever random low-level free agents are willing to come here. I'm way more interested in trades. Particularly for another top of the rotation arm.

[shimrod]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Both Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes at different times have said that they have heard plenty from reps of other orgs that Zoll acts and talks much more aggressively than Falvey did.

Talks...ok, I might buy that. Acts? What have the Twins done since Falvey left that would be considered aggressive? 

[saviking]

Maybe you should have started with # 40

[Twins GFP]

34 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Both are OBP guys with limited power and poor defensive chops leading to a battle to find a defensive position.  Luke has been healthier and shown more power. Luis has only been defensively average once in his career, and since it didn't happen until his age 29 season I'm not confident it's a new baseline that he can be counted on to maintain.  OTOH he seems to have stayed healthy since leaving the Twins, which was a huge knock on him early in his career. But there are far better ways to spend $20m than a slower, weaker Luke Keashall (that also could end up blocking the real Luke Keaschall at 1B or DH.) 

They provide some similarities offensively, but Arraez has a much longer track record of success. I also I don't think you are giving enough credence to the defensive role of this signing.

Arraez has worked to become a passable defensive 2B, with an ability to play 1B. Either/or is currently a position of need at the moment (depending on where you want to put Clemens). Signing him to a 2/26 or 3/36 seems reasonable for a locked in #2 guy in the lineup that fills a defensive need.

To other commenters, I am not sold that Bauer's one year of success is worth a flier.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

Arraez has worked to become a passable defensive 2B, with an ability to play 1B. Either/or is currently a position of need at the moment (depending on where you want to put Clemens). Signing him to a 2/26 or 3/36 seems reasonable for a locked in #2 guy in the lineup that fills a defensive need.

To other commenters, I am not sold that Bauer's one year of success is worth a flier.

I think Arraez is more likely to get 4 years, $60M than 2/26.

[MeleMouth]

After watching an ALCS and World Series in which teams who barely ever signing free agents but year after year outperform the Twins, who routinely dip into the mid-tier and sometimes premium market, I can't believe the topic is "which free agents will the Twins sign this year?" instead of "what do the Twins need to do differently?"

You know the old saying about doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?

What more do we need to see to realize that the entire strategy does not work?

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

I think the change from the slider-happy Falvey/Johnson/Maki regime to this new FB-centered ethos Reith has been preaching will help a lot.  MIL was working with guys they found, including former Twin Magill, so a change on our end was due.   

Maybe in his formative years Falvey believed small dollar teams like CLE and MIN could never afford the high velo types, whatever, but the truth today is that there are a hundred guys that can hit 100 MPH and every team needs a bunch of them. 

Well the Falvey bullpen was fantastic until they traded it away. And they were high velocity arms. I think they can, and I think they are in position to get back to that, but converting starters to relievers doesn't work overnight; they needed some time for it to work.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Arraez hits LH and plays 2B and Keaschall hits RH and is a LF/DH.

Why spend your money here when Culpepper looks promising? Arraez hits at the top of the order, not the middle and the Twins need a middle of the order bat. Keaschall and Buxton have the top two spots covered.

I don't think this team has any business sniffing around free agent bats that can't hope to touch an .800 OPS, minimum.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Why spend your money here when Culpepper looks promising? Arraez hits at the top of the order, not the middle and the Twins need a middle of the order bat. Keaschall and Buxton have the top two spots covered.

Culpepper is the shortstop. Maybe he’s the middle of the order bat.

The Rays were batting Chandler Simpson in the middle of the order and they made the World Series.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, DJL44 said:

Culpepper is the shortstop. Maybe he’s the middle of the order bat

Nobody seems to think he's the shortstop when Houston is called up.

Which should be opening day if his glove is as good as advertised.

[MeleMouth]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well the Falvey bullpen was fantastic until they traded it away. And they were high velocity arms. I think they can, and I think they are in position to get back to that, but converting starters to relievers doesn't work overnight; they needed some time for it to work.

Of the fifty relievers who had the highest fWAR in 2026, ten were former Twins. 

Of those, two were traded in the fire sale - Duran, Varland.

Seven were basically given away for free or nearly free - Megill, Headrick, Hoffman, Wells, Okert, Faucher, and Cano.

One was drafted, but not signed - Smith.

Multiple error paths were taken to arrive at 2026's bad bullpen.

Of these ten relievers, five for sure were converted starters - Duran, Varland, Headrick, Hoffman, and Wells. There's not one good path to becoming a good reliever, but recognizing and valuing who can do it well is a management skill the Twins haven't demonstrated. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Nobody seems to think he's the shortstop when Houston is called up.

Which should be opening day if his glove is as good as advertised.

If they want to go with all rookies, then they need to sell everyone over 30 this offseason.

[nicksaviking]

31 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Of these ten relievers, five for sure were converted starters - Duran, Varland, Headrick, Hoffman, and Wells. There's not one good path to becoming a good reliever, but recognizing and valuing who can do it well is a management skill the Twins haven't demonstrated. 

Agree that finding the right cast-offs pays off frequently, under Terry Ryan in particular. But for this organization, turning the fringy starters to relievers has had an extremely high success rate since about the time they did it with Perkins.

But the one path that does not appear to have much success, is going big on multiple free agents. It's just hard to predict how even a good reliever will fare on a new team with a new manager in a new ballpark and a new clubhouse. And then when you tie a big contract to him, the team is loathe to remove him from a high leverage role if he underperforms. I'd be Ok with perhaps one. With the understanding that if necessary, the team will pull the plug before too much damage is done.

[Mike Sixel]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they want to go with all rookies, then they need to sell everyone over 30 this offseason.

Here is a list of anyone that said all rookies: 

[Twins GFP]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I think Arraez is more likely to get 4 years, $60M than 2/26.

Maybe, but $12M last year, $14M the year before... 4/$60 feels like a stretch.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

Maybe, but $12M last year, $14M the year before... 4/$60 feels like a stretch.

He boosted his defense and improved his overall value.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If they want to go with all rookies, then they need to sell everyone over 30 this offseason.

They already barely have any guys over 30. There's room for the ones that are good. It's the guys in the 26-30 age range that ARN'T any good they need to be shown the door.

This organization's best teams are almost always built with a majority of home-grown talented youthful players with a smattering of veterans from the previous generation of Twins and a couple of key free agents.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, MeleMouth said:

You know the old saying about doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?

What more do we need to see to realize that the entire strategy does not work?

Cannot say this enough.  The Twins need to do things differently.