A Preliminary Look at the Minnesota Twins' Baseline 2027 Roster and Payroll

[killercarewoliva]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

None of those guys play first. If you bring back Bell one of those guys is sitting. 

Yes that is the great dilemma if you bring back Bell but it's hard to let go of 96 RBIs and you don't want any of those fellas sitting.

[killercarewoliva]

Just now, killercarewoliva said:

Yes that is the great dilemma if you bring back Bell but it's hard to let go of 96 RBIs and you don't want any of those fellas sitting.

I'm just thinking that Rodriguez is going to have some times of slumping trying to learn how to hit Major League pitching with all his strikeouts and such so that leaves some opening for Bell to be the DH. I'm just not sure what the team thinks of bringing Bill back. you know he has an agreement for next year

[killercarewoliva]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This offseason should SHOULD see some transactions. The past habit of sitting out November should give way to several transactions. This thought should drive some change.

It seems hard to believe the club would enter 2027 with four starting pitchers on expiring contracts, especially when one is returning from a lengthy absence due to injury while there are lingering questions about the other three veterans. Only Taj Bradley enters the offseason as a guy to put in ink. Connor Prielipp has shown us enough to earn a spot in the rotation. One of Mick Abel, Kendry Rojas, or Zebby Matthews gets the last slot. I'm guessing Abel with Matthews to the bullpen. 

Royce Lewis would be a reasonable utility player but I think he is gone. Looking over the form, I expect minimum salary to be at $1 miillion. The Twins could support a $140M budget. A few trades might fill in some depth pieces for the position side of the roster and perhaps one bullpen spot. The Twins should have about $40M available to sign three free agents (one position, two bullpen) after subtracting Lewis, Ober, and Ryan. Keeping Ober or Ryan is possible but not both. The Twins need to let Lewis, Larnach, and Wallner continue their careers elsewhere. There should be a fair return from them, not a regular though.

My expectation is that the front office is already sowing the seeds for transactions. Why not soon?

this is as good a place as any to stick this in here. Yes the dodgers buy their championship. the Mets been slightly more and can't even put a winning team on the field. let's look at Milwaukee. I think they are under 100K a year aren't they? then we have the awesome team called the Tampa Bay rays. they have put a winning team on the field consistently for 25 years and right now their team payroll is somewhere around $70 million and look at what they're doing? it can't always be coming down to money but the twins attendance is horrific. let's go back with that. also, the first two years of playoffs, the twins won the division and played the Orioles both years and lost three games to none. whichever year it was the twins lost the first two games in Baltimore. it was not a sellout in Baltimore and they went back to Minnesota in a 3 out of five series and sold out. why is that not done now? Calvin Griffith just didn't want to pay one thin dime to anybody. I think. Bert Blyleven made $9,000 and Jim Kaat made $13,000. so those figures are probably somewhere around $100,000 today. The twins lost the pennant on the last day in 1967 world series in 1965 on very little money. but I must agree in today's world, even with the Mets $400 million team salary and they can't win. you still need to get players on the field, especially for the twins is first base.

[weitz41]

I really like your predictions, Nick.

I think they move one more of the starters listed. That's just too much turnover from 2027-2028 season IMO. Then the #5 spot is rotated between Matthews, Rojas, Abel, Gallagher, Bohorquez and maybe even Morris.

Invest the $ saved into the BP, C, 1B or 2B.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

If they do this, then one of Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins or Rodriguez is sitting to make room for him every time he starts. And what of Roden? Just out of the plans?

I am pretty sure no one is starting 162 games in the OF next year.  Maybe Keaschall but Buxton, Rodriguez and Jenkins already have a history of getting injured.  If Larnarch was a full time player I wouldn't suggest it.  But at 3/4 time it might work and Larnarch could try a few games at 1B too.  I am also not saying they do this.  I am just suggesting it could be an option.  Larnarch was a good hitter last year.  He could also pinch him in 20 games or so off the bench.  

I will say the Twins shouldn't go all rookies in their lineup in a season their rotation will be at their best chance.to win and go to the post season.  Need some veteran hitters to help even things out.  

[Major League Ready]

It's time to shake it up.  Players like Larnach, Lewis and Ober time will not get it done.  They have refused to make the changes others have spoke of and the result is clear.  Let's not continue down the same path to mediocrity.

[mnfireman]

10 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

The team let Rosario go after a similar, albeit shortened, season. The next wave, Rooker, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner, were here, or close, and was supposed to replace him. The next wave, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Mendez, and Gonzalez, are here or close, time to let Larnach go.

[Linus]

9 hours ago, LyleCole said:

Positive thinking is not analytical thinking.   And it is absolutely correct to point out mistakes that have happened in the past.   The mistake they made at the beginning of 2026 was not trading Buxton and Joe Ryan.   If you set their relative trade value to 100 in the offseason of 2026, I would argue that Buxton's trade value is now about 40 and Ryan's 50.  Less than half.   I would argue that Ryan Jeffer's trade value relative to the trade deadline is also 50.  

And the real need to make those trades at max value is that the Twins pitching pipeline is rather barren and we really do not have a lot of other methods of adding to the pitching core.  We have to make smart draft picks for pitching, develop those players and then add smart prospects from trades, such as getting Joe Ryan in the first place, to fill out the staff. 

Where we need to be positive is believing that our core group of prospects that are just pushing to the majors now will have what it takes to become a competitive team over the near far term (2-3 years).  Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Houston, Lee, Diaw, Lackey, Tait, Tinney, Mendez, Gonzales, Roden, Keaschall.   I think there is a lot of data that suggests we should be positive with this group.  

If we brought up that entire group like the Twins did in 1982 with the Hrbek-Gaetti-Brunansky-Viola cohort, took their lumps, found out which of these guys pans out and which does not, then bring in the second wave Gagne-Puckett,  And then make smart moves in trades (Jeff Reardon, Bert Blyleven) and lower end free agents hopefully we can form a truly competitive team.

And while people have made comments that baseball today is not what it was in 1982, one factor that is different is that if we "tank" for a year or two that just adds top level draft picks to our system.  But in that era without signing bonus slot values it was very difficult for the Twins to sign their picks.  In 1983 the Twins failed to sign the #1 player picked in the draft, Tim Belcher and their 2nd round pick, #29 Bill Swift.  That was a major blow and I also believe it made them gun shy from drafting players they feared would not sign.

Buxton has a full no trade clause and has since he signed his extension. 

[LyleCole]

19 minutes ago, Linus said:

Buxton has a full no trade clause and has since he signed his extension. 

Sure.   And again as I said in another post, if he would have been traded to an actual contender this last offseason in which he could become a well known player competing in meaningful games rather than a good player in MLB backwater city: the "I want to stay in Minnesota" claim would have been over.   Byron Buxton playing for the Dodgers is a superstar.  Byron Buxton playing for the Twins is "who is he" except for die hard fans.   

THe probability that Buxton would have rejected a trade to LA, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Red Sox was 0%.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

THe probability that Buxton would have rejected a trade to LA, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Red Sox was 0%.

Byron Buxton has stated that this idea is nonsense. I guess someone can choose not to believe anything he says. There is that.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

If the Twins are looking at building a true open window roster starting in ‘28, they have all the money in the world.

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Kremer, Hofmann and Banda will not be on the ‘28 Twins.  That saves about $57MM.

Throw in Caratini and Lewis and that’s another 12MM.

So that’s nearly $70MM to play with prior to some raises and extensions for ‘28 and beyond.

And with Buxton and Correa basically sunk costs and coming off the books after ‘28, there’s an additional $26MM to play with in ‘28 looking forward to ‘29 - ‘31.

If the “target payroll” is $130MM, that’s over $100MM to play with over the next two off seasons  

If there is a salary cap with a floor of around $170MM (likely to be applied over some period of time), the Twins would have another $40MM to spend at some point.

So, what’s the plan?

Use the ‘27 off season and regular season to build for ‘28-‘31. That means a) anyone signed must be looked at as primary contributors during those years and b) anyone not going to be on that roster either plays out their contract, is traded, or is released.

So specifically what are the moves?

The single biggest priority is re-signing Jeffers to be our starting catcher in ‘27 and ‘28 and then transition to 1B/DH in ‘29-‘30.   Four years at $17.5MM for a total of $70MM.

If we add expensive relief pitching then they must be projectable through ‘28/‘29.

After that, we let the youngsters (including Houston) in the lockout shortened ‘27 season, finesse 1B and the starting rotation (trade Lopez and Ryan at the deadline), and keep the rest of our powered dry to fill in any holes in a more robust free agent market during the ‘28 off season.

Its not rocket science. 

 

 

 

 

I don’t disagree very much here ……. Lewis has the ability to play himself into the ‘28 - ‘30 seasons.

The huge amount of money to spend is available only after losing 3 core rotation pieces, a reliever, & a depth starter/reliever in Ober. ………. your prediction has Caratini & Lewis gone as well …….. IF they could sign Jeffers to the 4 year deal you outline, I would trade Caratini prior to ‘27 season and pay 4 of the $10M he’ll be owed with his buyout.

Lopez & Ryan being gone at the deadline obviously depends upon where they stand in July……..don’t see them trading away a ‘27 playoff run in the interest of having a better 2030.

[LyleCole]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Byron Buxton has stated that this idea is nonsense. I guess someone can choose not to believe anything he says. There is that.

People can SAY anything.  Of course he says he wants to stay in Minnesota.   But, when confronted with a huge upgrade in teams and the chance to play in the World Series, he would forget everything he ever said.  And if he didn't, then you have to wonder about his competitiveness level.

So, in a way, you can believe him and not believe him simultaneously.

"Byron we have a deal to trade you to teh LA Dodgers do you opt out of your no trade?"  

Split second later  "Of course."

But, Byron we have a deal to trade you to the Montreal Expos, do you reject that trade" is a much different proposition.

[Woof Bronzer]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, where else are they spending money?

Signing young guys to extensions.  

[tony&rodney]

49 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

People can SAY anything.  Of course he says he wants to stay in Minnesota.   But, when confronted with a huge upgrade in teams and the chance to play in the World Series, he would forget everything he ever said.  And if he didn't, then you have to wonder about his competitiveness level.

So, in a way, you can believe him and not believe him simultaneously.

"Byron we have a deal to trade you to teh LA Dodgers do you opt out of your no trade?"  

Split second later  "Of course."

But, Byron we have a deal to trade you to the Montreal Expos, do you reject that trade" is a much different proposition.

Those conversations have already taken place and Buck has been firm in his response. Think of him whatever you choose (I will agree it is somewhat abnormal) but Buxton has not wavered - he plans to have only one team on the back of his baseball card.