The '27 Twins are gonna need hitters! But who?

[TNtwins85]

The 2026 Minnesota Twins were fun( from my perspective anyway). We got to see a "competitive" team (albeit with a down league overall leading to their contention) heading into the trade deadline. They bought instead of selling giving the fans some hope for a day or two until they came back down to earth. This set up a terrible August ultimately putting them in the position they are in. Not out of it technically but out of it. 6 games out of the division after tripping over their own feet in between second and third base and  4.5 games back slipping on the grass coming around third. 

As I've watched this team one big thing comes to mind. The thing that drove them in May/June/July that has abandoned them in later July/August and now September. Hitting. As seen too often this season the Twins winning or losing has come down to one thing. Did they score enough runs realistically to win the game? More often than not the answer has been no other than the random 1-2 games a week when the offense just seems to not be able to stop hitting. More often than not the starter will give up a few runs early in the game, the offense will answer back, then they make the opposing pitcher look like Cy Young the rest of the game. Byron Buxton is the one superstar player on this roster but as we've come to learn the past decade he cannot carry a team like a Jose Ramirez or a Vlad Guerrero. Not because he doesn't have the ability but because he simply cannot stay healthy and be expected to play more than 100 games a season. They are losing some key hitters to free agency this winter so they will need to replace these bats somehow. Some of the next wave of hitters can supplant that but the Twins need to infill the ups and downs of the future young guys with some veteran guys as well. If Tom Pohlads words speak true they need to spend money in free agency, make a bold trade or both.

First lets look at the free agency route. The Twins will have money to spend if they choose to spend it. The hitter FA class is down this year. I think there are a few fits and none better than Randy Arrozarena. He's not an upper echelon star but he does possess a few qualities that the Twins could use. He's a perennial candidate as a 20-20 guy and he plays. Since exploding on the scene in 2020 he's played 141 games or more in every season. The Twins need that. He doesn't possess elite batspeed but his squared up %, LA sweet spot % and average exit velocity have and still are elite. When he hits it he hits it hard as can be seen in his elite hard hit percentage which has come down this year but still above average as he's upped his batting average this year putting more balls in play yet getting on base more as well. He brought his K% down to an average level this year. He has always walked a fair amount and improved on that a bit this year. I think he pairs well with the current Twins OF/DH projection. a rotation of Arrozarena/ Buxton/ Jenkins/ Rodriguez/ Keaschall provides a perfect mix where you still have 3 capable CFers in Buxton/Rodriguez/ Jenkins while shuffling guys with days off and Arrozarena occupying a mostly DH role with the occasional days in LF. I believe its the perfect mix without blowing up the young core that has emerged. That ultimately means you get rid of the dead weight that is Martin/ Roden/ Wallner/ Larnach. How I don't but that's not the point of this. As far as terms I believe that if the Twins jump on this out of the gate and simply overbid with a a high AAV contract for less years its a win-win. He's projected for roughly a 3-4 year deal in the $60-85 million range. I say offer a 4 year deal for $100 million. Go above and beyond because you want this guy. don't play around the edges to save a million or two. Just go get what you want.

Another option would be Seiya Suzuki. He's a year older but offers better fielding value and pairs well with the younger OF's as well. He has an elite BB%, doesn't chase and still barrels the ball up at an above average/top tier rate. He's going to command about the same type of contract as Arrozarena with a 3-4 year deal in the $60-85 million range. I just believe being one year older gives you one less year of above average production. I like Randy better for that reason.

I believe the Twins need to spend on someone and yes they probably need another BP guy but I'm not as worried about that as how to hand leads to those guys. As far as trades I would love for them to go out and get a catcher to bridge the gap as its one area they need to improve on and its an area they can improve. Milwaukee is known to flip guys before FA so maybe a package for Contreras is possible. Maybe a package led by one of Rodriguez/Keaschall with Tait in there gets something done? 1B could be an area to find a guy for but there's not really anyone in FA that gets me excited that could legitimately replace Lewis. He's been up and down but we've rode with him this long what's one more year. Especially when he goes into the year knowing he's gonna be the 1B. He's athletic so he can only get better defensively I hope and I just don't see an obvious upgrade without a trade. What do you guys think? Who must they go out and get without blowing it up and looking to improve on this year and be more " competitive."

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I really like both of your free agent ideas. I don't know that I want to trade either Rodriguez or Keaschall, but they could use a bridge catcher to pair with Caratini until Lackey is ready. 

But yeah, I have Keaschall and Rodriguez and Culpepper and Lee and Jenkins all for sure in the lineup. I also have Buxton there IF his hip is ok, and I'm fairly certain Clemens is either your 2B or your super utility. That leaves a starting catcher and a 1B to be figured out, unless you believe in Royce. I also think upgrading the bench so you have legit options behind the starters would go a long way too.

 

[S Bart]

[TNtwins85]

9 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I really like both of your free agent ideas. I don't know that I want to trade either Rodriguez or Keaschall, but they could use a bridge catcher to pair with Caratini until Lackey is ready. 

But yeah, I have Keaschall and Rodriguez and Culpepper and Lee and Jenkins all for sure in the lineup. I also have Buxton there IF his hip is ok, and I'm fairly certain Clemens is either your 2B or your super utility. That leaves a starting catcher and a 1B to be figured out, unless you believe in Royce. I also think upgrading the bench so you have legit options behind the starters would go a long way too.

 

I wouldn’t really be keen on trading Keaschall or Rodriguez either but it’s their only position of over abundance. Unless Jeffers accepts the QO which I don’t see happening it’s a weak spot and I see Contreras as a bridge to Lackey. There may be other options for that but he’s the most obvious with how Milwaukee handles impending free agents. I would be good with upgrading 1B but there’s no obvious FA upgrade and you’re having to trade to get a legit upgrade. It’s a tough FA class to be looking for impact bats.

[MGX]

The Twins should be focusing on improving the pitching staff. The offense was above average this season (9th in runs/game 4.58 -  & 10th in OPS .723). The continued development of younger players already in the organization could improve further.

The pitching on the other hand was near the bottom of the league (26th in runs/game 5.00). There is potential for improvement here too, with Lopez back, Ryan (if he isn't traded) being healthy & the bullpen having some existing leverage arms going into next season. With that said there are more questions on this side.

If they can find a good FA or trade partner for either a hitter or pitcher to improve the team that's great, but improving the pitching results needs to be a focus.

Regarding the specific FA moves/trade mentioned, I wouldn't do any of them. Arozarena & Suzuki are productive hitters, but for me OF/DH is bottom of the list for areas of need. Trading Keaschall or Rodriguez with Tait for 1 season of Contreras isn't at all interesting to me.

 

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 hours ago, MGX said:

The Twins should be focusing on improving the pitching staff. The offense was above average this season (9th in runs/game 4.58 -  & 10th in OPS .723). The continued development of younger players already in the organization could improve further.

The pitching on the other hand was near the bottom of the league (26th in runs/game 5.00). There is potential for improvement here too, with Lopez back, Ryan (if he isn't traded) being healthy & the bullpen having some existing leverage arms going into next season. With that said there are more questions on this side.

If they can find a good FA or trade partner for either a hitter or pitcher to improve the team that's great, but improving the pitching results needs to be a focus.

Regarding the specific FA moves/trade mentioned, I wouldn't do any of them. Arozarena & Suzuki are productive hitters, but for me OF/DH is bottom of the list for areas of need. Trading Keaschall or Rodriguez with Tait for 1 season of Contreras isn't at all interesting to me.

 

 

 

They can and should do both, upgrading the lineup and pitching

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If I am paying for a hitter its Arraez.  

Otherwise - we are counting on development of Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins.  Add in Keaschall, Lee, Clemens and and improved Lewis.;  The issue in adding Arraez is he would probably be blocking Buxton from DH'ing.   Arraez wants a significant long term contract and I don't see it occurring with us.  

[TNtwins85]

8 hours ago, MGX said:

The Twins should be focusing on improving the pitching staff. The offense was above average this season (9th in runs/game 4.58 -  & 10th in OPS .723). The continued development of younger players already in the organization could improve further.

The pitching on the other hand was near the bottom of the league (26th in runs/game 5.00). There is potential for improvement here too, with Lopez back, Ryan (if he isn't traded) being healthy & the bullpen having some existing leverage arms going into next season. With that said there are more questions on this side.

If they can find a good FA or trade partner for either a hitter or pitcher to improve the team that's great, but improving the pitching results needs to be a focus.

Regarding the specific FA moves/trade mentioned, I wouldn't do any of them. Arozarena & Suzuki are productive hitters, but for me OF/DH is bottom of the list for areas of need. Trading Keaschall or Rodriguez with Tait for 1 season of Contreras isn't at all interesting to me.

 

 

 

I would agree but if the Twins are gonna spend money on a FA I’d prefer a hitter. Especially with the guys they’ve got coming back on the pitching side. With that said they’re losing Jeffers, and Bell from an offense that hasn’t looked stellar of late despite the amazing numbers with RISP they put up earlier in the year. Also, Buxton is another year older and absolutely not a guy to be counted on for 100 games. Yes hopefully the young guys take a step but we’re now losing the guys we were waiting on to take the next step and they never did. This all rests on if they’re gonna spend money to upgrade and actually compete. 

[TNtwins85]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If I am paying for a hitter its Arraez.  

Otherwise - we are counting on development of Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins.  Add in Keaschall, Lee, Clemens and and improved Lewis.;  The issue in adding Arraez is he would probably be blocking Buxton from DH'ing.   Arraez wants a significant long term contract and I don't see it occurring with us.  

I used to like Arraez but he provides no pop to the offense, is a bad defensive player and he’s left handed. If I wanted that production as far as WAR I’d just run back the Larnach/Martin platoon and resign Josh Bell. 

[TNtwins85]

7 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They can and should do both, upgrading the lineup and pitching

They should do both, but as I said in the write up they need to replace some hitters. Who are guys they can go out and sign that are better and improve the offense? If Tom Pohlads goal is to make a splash, go big and spend money who do they spend it on in a down hitters market? 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

13 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

I used to like Arraez but he provides no pop to the offense, is a bad defensive player and he’s left handed. If I wanted that production as far as WAR I’d just run back the Larnach/Martin platoon and resign Josh Bell. 

Ok so no power- but 3 other big positives

1. Low strikeouts 

2. puts ball in play - moves runners 

3. Sees lots of pitches

He is a professional batter that improves the hitters around him. I think you could get him for 3 for $45 million and he will likely outplay the contract. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

They should do both, but as I said in the write up they need to replace some hitters. Who are guys they can go out and sign that are better and improve the offense? If Tom Pohlads goal is to make a splash, go big and spend money who do they spend it on in a down hitters market? 

Trade or sign. I’d love to trade for either Yandy Diaz or Isaac Paredes. Both have a year left on their contracts and could be a middle of the order type bat. Just spitballing, but I’d prefer that over some of the free agent options.

[ashbury]

38 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Ok so no power- but 3 other big positives

1. Low strikeouts 

2. puts ball in play - moves runners 

3. Sees lots of pitches

This season the MLB average number of pitches per plate appearance is 3.88.  Arraez is at 3.72.

There's no disputing his fabulous, low strikeout rate.  I don't know of stats for moving runners, but driving in runners has never been his forte.

You don't mention run scoring.  This season Twins leadoff batters have scored 98 runs so far.  #2, #3, #4 batters have scored 86, 87, and 86 respectively.  Arraez this season has blended his time in these four spots, and is on a pace to score about 72 runs.  He's never scored more than 88 in his career, and his 162-game projection for his career is 83 runs.  Where is the improvement supposed to come from?

[Mike Sixel]

It's hard to see anyone I'd sign as a free agent hitter. I'm not trading a legit prospect for one year of any available player. I have no idea how they fix this.... Though if Rodriguez and Culpeper are average for their position, that's a big improvement for a full season. Need Jenkins to be the star he could be. 

Lewis and a second baseman are about all you can really add.... Given the players they have. Catcher too, but good luck. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

This season the MLB average number of pitches per plate appearance is 3.88.  Arraez is at 3.72.

There's no disputing his fabulous, low strikeout rate.  I don't know of stats for moving runners, but driving in runners has never been his forte.

You don't mention run scoring.  This season Twins leadoff batters have scored 98 runs so far.  #2, #3, #4 batters have scored 86, 87, and 86 respectively.  Arraez this season has blended his time in these four spots, and is on a pace to score about 72 runs.  He's never scored more than 88 in his career, and his 162-game projection for his career is 83 runs.  Where is the improvement supposed to come from?

I like him as a #5 hitter. Even still he wants to be a 2nd baseman not a DH and we won’t pay enough. 

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I like him as a #5 hitter. 

None of his managers have so far.  😄

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

11 minutes ago, ashbury said:

None of his managers have so far.  😄

Doesn’t matter it’s where he has value. He is not an OBP machine and he doesn’t have great speed. Even without power I think he is best as high quality rbi producer.  

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I like him as a #5 hitter. Even still he wants to be a 2nd baseman not a DH and we won’t pay enough. 

He was great at second this year.... And while I wanted them to trade for him if they were buyers, I'm not signing him in FA. He's missing something. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He was great at second this year.... And while I wanted them to trade for him if they were buyers, I'm not signing him in FA. He's missing something. 

Every batter is missing something.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's hard to see anyone I'd sign as a free agent hitter. I'm not trading a legit prospect for one year of any available player. I have no idea how they fix this.... Though if Rodriguez and Culpeper are average for their position, that's a big improvement for a full season. Need Jenkins to be the star he could be. 

Lewis and a second baseman are about all you can really add.... Given the players they have. Catcher too, but good luck. 

I do think they have enough depth in the system to trade for someone they like. Probably have to be creative.

I also wonder how quickly they'll move either of Houston and Lackey. I hope not too fast, but defensively Houston would help.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Ok so no power- but 3 other big positives

1. Low strikeouts 

2. puts ball in play - moves runners 

3. Sees lots of pitches

He is a professional batter that improves the hitters around him. I think you could get him for 3 for $45 million and he will likely outplay the contract. 

I'd guess Arraez gets well over 20M per year. The big spending clubs are going to spend ugly before the CBA expires to milk the system one more time, and then after the CBA is renegotiated, all the small market teams will be forced to up their payroll and spend ugly on the whatever free agents remain.

[TNtwins85]

10 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Trade or sign. I’d love to trade for either Yandy Diaz or Isaac Paredes. Both have a year left on their contracts and could be a middle of the order type bat. Just spitballing, but I’d prefer that over some of the free agent options.

I looked into Yandy Diaz. He already hit his vesting option so a trade would have to be the way to get him. Tampa is always willing to talk in the offseason. Not sure what they would target in a trade though. The Twins don’t really have the arms to spare in the minors but maybe a few position players get him.

[TNtwins85]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

This season the MLB average number of pitches per plate appearance is 3.88.  Arraez is at 3.72.

There's no disputing his fabulous, low strikeout rate.  I don't know of stats for moving runners, but driving in runners has never been his forte.

You don't mention run scoring.  This season Twins leadoff batters have scored 98 runs so far.  #2, #3, #4 batters have scored 86, 87, and 86 respectively.  Arraez this season has blended his time in these four spots, and is on a pace to score about 72 runs.  He's never scored more than 88 in his career, and his 162-game projection for his career is 83 runs.  Where is the improvement supposed to come from?

Exactly. The allure of Arraez around here has always puzzled me. In my mind I still don’t get why Miami traded Lopez for him. Even before taking into account that Pablo wasn’t Pablo yet. 

[TNtwins85]

9 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I like him as a #5 hitter. Even still he wants to be a 2nd baseman not a DH and we won’t pay enough. 

I’d take a 2-3 WAR Kody Clemens at minimum salary than an expensive singles hitter at 2B. At this point Clemens is penciled in at 2B I believe and he’s earned it. 

[TNtwins85]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He was great at second this year.... And while I wanted them to trade for him if they were buyers, I'm not signing him in FA. He's missing something. 

Power. 

[big dog]

15 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Power. 

and speed, 

You can say that Boggs and Gwyn were at least "not fast", but they both had about 40 points more slugging percentage and long runs as good fielders.

No thank you to Luis. He's been on 5 teams in 5 years. He plays a limited role really well, but teams need someone with more skills.

[TNtwins85]

34 minutes ago, big dog said:

and speed, 

You can say that Boggs and Gwyn were at least "not fast", but they both had about 40 points more slugging percentage and long runs as good fielders.

No thank you to Luis. He's been on 5 teams in 5 years. He plays a limited role really well, but teams need someone with more skills.

That too! He’s just too one dimensional and if you’re going out and paying for a hitter he better have the ability to hit 20 bombs and do something else well. 

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Trade or sign. I’d love to trade for either Yandy Diaz or Isaac Paredes. Both have a year left on their contracts and could be a middle of the order type bat. Just spitballing, but I’d prefer that over some of the free agent options.

The Rays JUST got their new stadium approved, and the new CBA has a good chance of compelling the Rays to spend money. I don't think there's a very high likelihood that Diaz is ever made available.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Rays JUST got their new stadium approved, and the new CBA has a good chance of compelling the Rays to spend money. I don't think there's a very high likelihood that Diaz is ever made available.

You are probably right. I also used to like their prospect Tre Morgan back to his LSU days, but he looks like he has had a rough year.

Back to the drawing board

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

I’d take a 2-3 WAR Kody Clemens at minimum salary than an expensive singles hitter at 2B. At this point Clemens is penciled in at 2B I believe and he’s earned it. 

The free agent market has depth at 2B and not at other positions. Based on supply and demand, that’s the best thing to purchase. The Twins have very little middle infield depth so it is a good fit for team needs. Clemens can move to several other positions and contribute. I would add a second baseman to the team.