Baseball Gods to Tom Pohlad: 'Aight, Bet'

[GNess]

I agree with Matthew Trueblood's view.

The Twins have been to three world series since moving to Minnesota. I would suggest the 87 version that won the world series was not considered to be a serious contender until. they actually won some games in the postseason!

If a team makes it into the postseason it has accomplished something. that the majority of teams failed to do. You have to be in the postseason to. compete for a title. it's an opportunity that doesn't occur most seasons.

60+ years of Minnesota Twins baseball. Two world series titles. Three trips in total to the world series. 14 playoff seasons since 1969 resulting in two world series, 43 seasons since 1969 of no playoffs and no world series appearances.

it's a very difficult challenge unless you are a franchise with deep pockets and a willingness to spend.

Last related point - the weakness of the division in 2026 is not a flaw it is an opportunity.

[HarmonK03]

50 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I think it's a little silly to assume Zoll is philosophically just like Falvey, just because he hired him a few years back. 

For a variety of reasons I find it unlikely that the duo of Tom P and Zoll will act like the previous duo of Joe P and Falvey, but who knows.

We've learned almost nothing about how Zoll will operate, in the last 6 months, since he took over. Not only will we learn about Tom Pohlad this deadline, but also Jeremy Zoll. 

 

Zoll has been with the organization since 2017 and per Falvey a key decision maker in personnel decisions for at least the last 5 years.  He is obviously invested in and agrees with the philosophies that Falvey has implemented or he would not have stayed.

And Falvey was not operating in a vacuum, his staff was advising and assisting in all the moves being made the last 10 years.  None of those people have changed, the only change is Zoll is the now the final decision maker.

Tom P should not be making any personnel decisions other than to approve additional budget or he could potentially say no to a trade for Ryan or Buxton for example for business reasons.  But it is Zoll's show and he has no experience as the top guy and so far he is following the same template as Falvey.

 

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan's tradeability took a complete beating with his arm fatigue diagnosis. It's going to scare the heck out of any suitor.

It's such an unusual trade deadline scenario. How do owners view 2027? How confident are owners that baseball will be played or a new CBA will include a $150MM+ floor and full rev share? What will Arb 3 look like?

Everything staying the same as the current CBA (I think that's kind of the best I can assume), I think Joe Ryan's value is probably $45MM, minus his outstanding salary for 2026 plus his projected Arb 3 salary. He's making $2MM the rest of this year, plus $20MM next year (have to assume that value in Arb3 based on Skubal). Forget about the mutual option. Ryan is not taking $12MM after the Skubal ruling. That'd be absurd.

So surplus around $23MM? The rest is market thirst. Figure the +20% surcharge for market thirst equivalent to Berrios' deal and best case scenario, you're looking at a $30MM surplus and a deal similar to prospect in the 30-60ish range or mayyyybe two fringe top 100s. Exclude any team's top org prospect. Joe Ryan WAS worth more than double what he is now at last years deadline.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, GNess said:

...Last related point - the weakness of the division in 2026 is not a flaw it is an opportunity.

It's a trap. Believing a mediocre team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to make, let alone win, a World Series is a trap. If the organizational goal is "World Series" then lightly chasing a division title with virtually no hope of advancing is a trap which will undermine the future of the franchise.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's a trap. Believing a mediocre team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to make, let alone win, a World Series is a trap. If the organizational goal is "World Series" then lightly chasing a division title with virtually no hope of advancing is a trap which will undermine the future of the franchise.

The 88 win 2021 Atlanta Braves won a WS.

The 88 win 2014 San Francisco Giants won a WS.

The 83 win 2006 St Louis Cardinals won a WS.

A Twins postseason team would be underdogs. But a WS wouldn't be impossible. 

 

Edited Monday at 07:21 PM by USAFChief

[arby58]

Slightly off topic, but the claim that the AL Central is a horrible division is just wrong. The horrible division is the West, with just one team (barely) above .500  and two of the three really bad teams in the AL. Collectively, they are 42 games under .500, while the Central is 17 games under .500.

[GNess]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's a trap. Believing a mediocre team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to make, let alone win, a World Series is a trap. If the organizational goal is "World Series" then lightly chasing a division title with virtually no hope of advancing is a trap which will undermine the future of the franchise.

The Twins do not have to mortgage the future add a piece or two that would make them more competitive in 2026.

All teams that qualify. for the postseason have a shot especially in 3, 5 or even 7 game formats to determine who advances/wins.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The 88 win 2021 Atlanta Braves won a WS.

The 88 win 2014 San Francisco Giants won a WS.

The 83 win 2006 St Louis Cardinals won a WS.

A Twins postseason team would be underdogs. But a WS wouldn't be impossible. 

 

The Twins could win the World Series this year after trading Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton for prospects. It's not "impossible."

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, GNess said:

...All teams that qualify. for the postseason have a shot especially in 3, 5 or even 7 game formats to determine who advances/wins.

Worse chance for a bad team to beat a good team in a longer format, sir.

[Rufus]

8 hours ago, mark allen said:

Louis Varland, and someone else from Toronto Blue Jays for Joe Ryan 

 

An ace level starter for a bull pen arm?   I sure am glad you are not the GM

[Matthew Trueblood]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

Slightly off topic, but the claim that the AL Central is a horrible division is just wrong. The horrible division is the West, with just one team (barely) above .500  and two of the three really bad teams in the AL. Collectively, they are 42 games under .500, while the Central is 17 games under .500.

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 hours ago, Rufus said:

The time to make major trade deadline deals is when your team has a legitimate shot at a winning it all.  Not when your team might sneak into the playoffs.  At this point the Twins should look at their strengths and trade from them to fill weaknesses (catching for pitching).  They should not be trading any top prospects for expiring contracts.  

I know it doesn't happen often in Minnesota it seems, but if your team DOES make the playoffs, then your team DOES have a chance of winning it all. 

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, GNess said:

I agree with Matthew Trueblood's view.

The Twins have been to three world series since moving to Minnesota. I would suggest the 87 version that won the world series was not considered to be a serious contender until. they actually won some games in the postseason!

If a team makes it into the postseason it has accomplished something. that the majority of teams failed to do. You have to be in the postseason to. compete for a title. it's an opportunity that doesn't occur most seasons.

60+ years of Minnesota Twins baseball. Two world series titles. Three trips in total to the world series. 14 playoff seasons since 1969 resulting in two world series, 43 seasons since 1969 of no playoffs and no world series appearances.

it's a very difficult challenge unless you are a franchise with deep pockets and a willingness to spend.

Last related point - the weakness of the division in 2026 is not a flaw it is an opportunity.

I'm being tongue-in-cheek in this thread, but we really have to be careful comparing the playoffs from 1987 to now.  The gauntlet is not anywhere close to the same thing.  

We all want a winner, but we also want the team to make wise decisions.  Let's say you're some kid playing for Nicollet.  You DOMINATE the football field.  You're so confident you have a chance at the NFL you take "an opportunity" to put yourself in debt to buy a brand new car.  Dumping assets in it because you feel so good and want so badly to be an NFL player.  What you have refused to look at is the quality of your competition and the way it is lulling you into a false sense of security.  That shiny new car feels good now...but the bill will come due.  A wise person should ask if the path to the reward is really paved the way you believe before taking such a risk.

It's been called a "trap" in this thread.  That's the right word.  Especially since you are part of that weakness.

[HarmonK03]

4 hours ago, amjgt said:

I know. But it's my personal belief that he was still below Falvey on the decision tree and that a Falvey philosophy would win out over a Zoll philosophy (if there were differences)

Yes it is a fact he reported to Falvey.  But Falvey didn't make the moves by himself, Zoll was his top assistant and advised him.  How many times do you think Falvey said to him, get out of my office that was a dumb idea.  Falvey was at the top laying out the vision and Zoll implemented that vision because he believed in it.  He worked for Falvey for almost 10 years, he believed in what his vision was.

How many times have you worked in a job and didn't believe in the way your boss wanted things done and stuck around anyway.  And my guess at Zoll's level salary is not an issue like it might be for others.

[amjgt]

14 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

How many times have you worked in a job and didn't believe in the way your boss wanted things done and stuck around anyway.  

Well, my boss is a Yankees fan, so it’s a daily internal battle. 

[HarmonK03]

3 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Well, my boss is a Yankees fan, so it’s a daily internal battle. 

That  is reason enough for giving notice. LOL

[GNess]

25 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

t's been called a "trap" in this thread.  That's the right word.  Especially since you are part of that weakness.

 

I get you prefaced your post by noting it was tongue in cheek.

Your analogy comparing playing at Nicolett and playing in the NFL falls short as if that reflects in any meaningful way the differences between any MLB teams particularly those that qualify for the playoffs.

Yes, 87 was a shorter postseason, but the Twins were underdogs vs Detroit and St Louis. (4-1 vs Detroit in the ALCS and 4-3 in the World Series)

As far as being part of the weakness simply because my view differs from yours is nonsense. I am just sharing my opinion on TD. I can't imagine how my or your words here would have any bearing whatsoever on the course of action the Twins will take at the trade deadline.

[Rufus]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I know it doesn't happen often in Minnesota it seems, but if your team DOES make the playoffs, then your team DOES have a chance of winning it all. 

If I buy lottery tickets,  I have a chance to win.  But I am not going to sell the farm to buy tickets. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, Rufus said:

If I buy lottery tickets,  I have a chance to win.  But I am not going to sell the farm to buy tickets. 

And you shouldn't. 

But still, winning the powerball has the same odds as getting struck by lightning twice in your lifetime. One of 12 teams that make the playoffs win it every year. Of course some teams have more experience or more talent or are built more for playoff success. But it's still getting there that gives you a chance, and that's certainly higher odds than any lottery.

Plus, there is nothing saying the Twins will sell the farm to get to the playoffs. They have a very deep prospect pool by comparison, and frankly a LOT of left handed hitting outfielders to hopefully add some pitching talent here in the next week or so.

[TheLeviathan]

31 minutes ago, GNess said:

I get you prefaced your post by noting it was tongue in cheek.

Your analogy comparing playing at Nicolett and playing in the NFL falls short as if that reflects in any meaningful way the differences between any MLB teams particularly those that qualify for the playoffs.

Yes, 87 was a shorter postseason, but the Twins were underdogs vs Detroit and St Louis. (4-1 vs Detroit in the ALCS and 4-3 in the World Series)

As far as being part of the weakness simply because my view differs from yours is nonsense. I am just sharing my opinion on TD. I can't imagine how my or your words here would have any bearing whatsoever on the course of action the Twins will take at the trade deadline.

My jokes about wishing for a losing streak and being forsaken are tongue in cheek.  My analogy absolutely fits - you're taking big risks with a false sense of security premised on a refusal to look at your "success" or "opportunity" with context.  

I didn't mean to imply you personally were a weakness.  The "you" in that case was the Twins.  The Twins are part of the "weakness" of the AL.  They suck just as much as the rest.  Being slightly less weak than the rest of the weaklings IS the context you should be considering.  Slightly less weak isn't the same as strong.

One of my biggest issues is people keep saying "The AL is weak, let's pounce".  Yeah....it is weak.  We're part of that problem!  We're not good.  I get investing in a "good" team.  We're not good!!!

[JD-TWINS]

Crazy thought for Tom P. to act on……….trade for Sandy Alcantara. Make a strong playoff push!

Wallner - Emma - Raya & an A Ball arm……& maybe a AA arm……...maybe Ober…… any of the prospects other than Houston - Culpepper - Jenkins - & this year’s #1 & 2 picks.

Marlins have lost 12 straight & he costs $21M next year. If Tom wants to spend to be competitive, he could be the guy!

Trade Bell & Caratini or Jeffers. Any two of those guys pay for Alcantara, plus, for this year’s cost.

Lopez - Alcantara - Ryan would cost $56M  next year …… if there is a spending floor, these guys are $$ well spent against that total. Those 3 with Bradley & Abel (or whoever) would be the best rotation in baseball!

Prielipp or Rojas & Matthews to the PEN in ‘27.

 

OR

 

Put a package together for Luis Arraez! He goes to 2B and hits 3rd every day. He protects Buxton and plays solid 2B now. Clemens & Keaschall settle in playing LF & RF every day. Larnach moves to DH and Keaschall is DH v. lefties w/Martin in corner OF.

Bell/Wallner/one of the Catchers with a pitching prospect or two - somehow, they need to bring back a reliever.

Take a BIG SWING Tom!!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

And you shouldn't. 

But still, winning the powerball has the same odds as getting struck by lightning twice in your lifetime. One of 12 teams that make the playoffs win it every year. Of course some teams have more experience or more talent or are built more for playoff success. But it's still getting there that gives you a chance, and that's certainly higher odds than any lottery.

Plus, there is nothing saying the Twins will sell the farm to get to the playoffs. They have a very deep prospect pool by comparison, and frankly a LOT of left handed hitting outfielders to hopefully add some pitching talent here in the next week or so.

Can’t trade Jenkins. Everyone agrees.

Emma is continually hurt so his value sucks……he’s averaged around 54 games/year for last 4 years. Can’t imagine any team being excited about him.

Mendez? Wallner? Roden? ……..other than this group, I don’t know who else is interesting and hits left handed? Bell & Caratini & Jeffers are all possibilities to obtain a shot in the arm.

I too hope some reliever - even one, can be brought back in a trade.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm being tongue-in-cheek in this thread, but we really have to be careful comparing the playoffs from 1987 to now.  The gauntlet is not anywhere close to the same thing.  

We all want a winner, but we also want the team to make wise decisions.  Let's say you're some kid playing for Nicollet.  You DOMINATE the football field.  You're so confident you have a chance at the NFL you take "an opportunity" to put yourself in debt to buy a brand new car.  Dumping assets in it because you feel so good and want so badly to be an NFL player.  What you have refused to look at is the quality of your competition and the way it is lulling you into a false sense of security.  That shiny new car feels good now...but the bill will come due.  A wise person should ask if the path to the reward is really paved the way you believe before taking such a risk.

It's been called a "trap" in this thread.  That's the right word.  Especially since you are part of that weakness.

"Calling it a trap was tongue in cheek.

 

But I'm gonna repeat it."

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Crazy thought for Tom P. to act on……….trade for Sandy Alcantara. Make a strong playoff push!

Wallner - Emma - Raya & an A Ball arm……& maybe a AA arm……...maybe Ober…… any of the prospects other than Houston - Culpepper - Jenkins - & this year’s #1 & 2 picks.

Marlins have lost 12 straight & he costs $21M next year. If Tom wants to spend to be competitive, he could be the guy!

Trade Bell & Caratini or Jeffers. Any two of those guys pay for Alcantara, plus, for this year’s cost.

Lopez - Alcantara - Ryan would cost $56M  next year …… if there is a spending floor, these guys are $$ well spent against that total. Those 3 with Bradley & Abel (or whoever) would be the best rotation in baseball!

Prielipp or Rojas & Matthews to the PEN in ‘27.

 

OR

 

Put a package together for Luis Arraez! He goes to 2B and hits 3rd every day. He protects Buxton and plays solid 2B now. Clemens & Keaschall settle in playing LF & RF every day. Larnach moves to DH and Keaschall is DH v. lefties w/Martin in corner OF.

Bell/Wallner/one of the Catchers with a pitching prospect or two - somehow, they need to bring back a reliever.

Take a BIG SWING Tom!!

Lewis and a mid tier guy  for Arraez. Put Clemens at first. Add in a prospect of you want to expand the deal. 

[HarmonK03]

45 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Crazy thought for Tom P. to act on…

Do you mean Zoll, he should be the one proposing the trades.  Tom P. can say yes or no to adding payroll but I am guessing he would be willing if it is reasonable based on his words.

[Old Twins Hat]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The 88 win 2021 Atlanta Braves won a WS.

The 88 win 2014 San Francisco Giants won a WS.

The 83 win 2006 St Louis Cardinals won a WS.

A Twins postseason team would be underdogs. But a WS wouldn't be impossible. 

 

You do realize that they would have win against the equivalent of the Dodgers?

Right?

 

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

You do realize that they would have win against the equivalent of the Dodgers?

Right?

 

And there is another round of playoffs. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Old Twins Hat said:

You do realize that they would have win against the equivalent of the Dodgers?

Right?

 

Well yes, the AL representative to the WS might have to play the Dodgers.

As I understand it, the AL representative plays a National League team every year in the WS.

 

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Well yes, the AL representative to the WS might have to play the Dodgers.

As I understand it, the AL representative plays a National League team every year in the WS.

What if it rains?

[USAFChief]

Just now, ashbury said:

What if it rains?

"It never rains in California."

They wrote a song about it and everything.