Baseball Gods to Tom Pohlad: 'Aight, Bet'

[GNess]

I agree with Matthew Trueblood's view.

The Twins have been to three world series since moving to Minnesota. I would suggest the 87 version that won the world series was not considered to be a serious contender until. they actually won some games in the postseason!

If a team makes it into the postseason it has accomplished something. that the majority of teams failed to do. You have to be in the postseason to. compete for a title. it's an opportunity that doesn't occur most seasons.

60+ years of Minnesota Twins baseball. Two world series titles. Three trips in total to the world series. 14 playoff seasons since 1969 resulting in two world series, 43 seasons since 1969 of no playoffs and no world series appearances.

it's a very difficult challenge unless you are a franchise with deep pockets and a willingness to spend.

Last related point - the weakness of the division in 2026 is not a flaw it is an opportunity.

[HarmonK03]

50 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I think it's a little silly to assume Zoll is philosophically just like Falvey, just because he hired him a few years back. 

For a variety of reasons I find it unlikely that the duo of Tom P and Zoll will act like the previous duo of Joe P and Falvey, but who knows.

We've learned almost nothing about how Zoll will operate, in the last 6 months, since he took over. Not only will we learn about Tom Pohlad this deadline, but also Jeremy Zoll. 

 

Zoll has been with the organization since 2017 and per Falvey a key decision maker in personnel decisions for at least the last 5 years.  He is obviously invested in and agrees with the philosophies that Falvey has implemented or he would not have stayed.

And Falvey was not operating in a vacuum, his staff was advising and assisting in all the moves being made the last 10 years.  None of those people have changed, the only change is Zoll is the now the final decision maker.

Tom P should not be making any personnel decisions other than to approve additional budget or he could potentially say no to a trade for Ryan or Buxton for example for business reasons.  But it is Zoll's show and he has no experience as the top guy and so far he is following the same template as Falvey.

 

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan's tradeability took a complete beating with his arm fatigue diagnosis. It's going to scare the heck out of any suitor.

It's such an unusual trade deadline scenario. How do owners view 2027? How confident are owners that baseball will be played or a new CBA will include a $150MM+ floor and full rev share? What will Arb 3 look like?

Everything staying the same as the current CBA (I think that's kind of the best I can assume), I think Joe Ryan's value is probably $45MM, minus his outstanding salary for 2026 plus his projected Arb 3 salary. He's making $2MM the rest of this year, plus $20MM next year (have to assume that value in Arb3 based on Skubal). Forget about the mutual option. Ryan is not taking $12MM after the Skubal ruling. That'd be absurd.

So surplus around $23MM? The rest is market thirst. Figure the +20% surcharge for market thirst equivalent to Berrios' deal and best case scenario, you're looking at a $30MM surplus and a deal similar to prospect in the 30-60ish range or mayyyybe two fringe top 100s. Exclude any team's top org prospect. Joe Ryan WAS worth more than double what he is now at last years deadline.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, GNess said:

...Last related point - the weakness of the division in 2026 is not a flaw it is an opportunity.

It's a trap. Believing a mediocre team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to make, let alone win, a World Series is a trap. If the organizational goal is "World Series" then lightly chasing a division title with virtually no hope of advancing is a trap which will undermine the future of the franchise.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's a trap. Believing a mediocre team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to make, let alone win, a World Series is a trap. If the organizational goal is "World Series" then lightly chasing a division title with virtually no hope of advancing is a trap which will undermine the future of the franchise.

The 88 win 2021 Atlanta Braves won a WS.

The 88 win 2014 San Francisco Giants won a WS.

The 83 win 2006 St Louis Cardinals won a WS.

A Twins postseason team would be underdogs. But a WS wouldn't be impossible. 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by USAFChief

[arby58]

Slightly off topic, but the claim that the AL Central is a horrible division is just wrong. The horrible division is the West, with just one team (barely) above .500  and two of the three really bad teams in the AL. Collectively, they are 42 games under .500, while the Central is 17 games under .500.

[GNess]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's a trap. Believing a mediocre team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to make, let alone win, a World Series is a trap. If the organizational goal is "World Series" then lightly chasing a division title with virtually no hope of advancing is a trap which will undermine the future of the franchise.

The Twins do not have to mortgage the future add a piece or two that would make them more competitive in 2026.

All teams that qualify. for the postseason have a shot especially in 3, 5 or even 7 game formats to determine who advances/wins.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The 88 win 2021 Atlanta Braves won a WS.

The 88 win 2014 San Francisco Giants won a WS.

The 83 win 2006 St Louis Cardinals won a WS.

A Twins postseason team would be underdogs. But a WS wouldn't be impossible. 

 

The Twins could win the World Series this year after trading Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton for prospects. It's not "impossible."

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, GNess said:

...All teams that qualify. for the postseason have a shot especially in 3, 5 or even 7 game formats to determine who advances/wins.

Worse chance for a bad team to beat a good team in a longer format, sir.