Twins 10, Guardians 6: Twins Bats Heat Up and Snap Four-Game Losing Streak

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lee will be out of baseball in a couple years. It's nice that he's having his very own Danny Santana one year breakthrough, but eventually, the regression will happen. The Twins certainly need all the help they can get so I'm glad Brooks is rolling a lot of doubles, but only a couple times in a row, and avoiding all the hotels on Boardwalk.

Players can continue to improve.  Lee is one who will outwork anyone.  He has improved a significant amount this year - has a 1.7 WAR and is only 25.   This is one of the easiest ones to know he will get better.  Now his body may tap out his ceiling specifically range,  but everything else he can improve on.   Last year I don't think you thought much of Ryan either -  stating definitely not a #1 type pitcher.   Players can continue to evolve.    He needed to improve 2 specific things -  1 increase his walk rate - he has.   2 - related to the first be more discerning on the pitches to hit - hit your pitch that you can do damage on rather than one out of the zone that you can hit but do little with.   This shows he can adjust.    BA, OBP, and OPS all up.   

I'll take a bet that neither of us will remember.  I bet he has a 10 year career.   

[HarmonK03]

Just now, Colbeh said:

Results can be skewed when its a SSS

His .227 BABIP suggests he's been very unlucky so far. League average is .290-.310 depending on how hard you hit the ball.

At the end of the day we're talking about 25 ABs so his potential is undetermined

He has had almost 200 ab's in the major leagues and his batting average is .193 and OPS of .547.  These numbers don't scream that you take AB's away from more productive players or hold back your #1 prospect.  He has not been able to take advantage of his stints with us or Toronto and he is running out of time to show it.  There are guys coming up behind him that this sample size regardless of how big will not be enough for him to hold them off.  He had regular playing time with Toronto at the beginning of last year and did not grab hold of the opportunity given and then they traded him.  I am not sure where that merits him getting playing time over others.

[Saxophone Joe]

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

He has had almost 200 ab's in the major leagues and his batting average is .193 and OPS of .547.  These numbers don't scream that you take AB's away from more productive players or hold back your #1 prospect.  He has not been able to take advantage of his stints with us or Toronto and he is running out of time to show it.  There are guys coming up behind him that this sample size regardless of how big will not be enough for him to hold them off.  He had regular playing time with Toronto at the beginning of last year and did not grab hold of the opportunity given and then they traded him.  I am not sure where that merits him getting playing time over others.

On that walkoff he was also 2 ft shy of a grandslam.   Alas -  Roden comes down to 1 thing in my opinion - his confidence and can he show he can do it at this level.   Under the hood looks good,  the effort is good, the defense is good.  You can say he got lucky getting on errors or otherwise.  For me I would have him down for 2 hits - 1 BB and got on 2 more times with errors.   He scored 2 runs.  That is a really good night.  

When talking about small sample sizes,  with 1 more hit his batting average is .240- OBP .340 and if he hit the home run - Slugging .360.   Thats a .700 OPS.   He may still be a 4th outfielder,  or he could be a better Larnach.  

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Players can continue to improve.  Lee is one who will outwork anyone.  He has improved a significant amount this year - has a 1.7 WAR and is only 25.   This is one of the easiest ones to know he will get better.  Now his body may tap out his ceiling specifically range,  but everything else he can improve on.   Last year I don't think you thought much of Ryan either -  stating definitely not a #1 type pitcher.   Players can continue to evolve.    He needed to improve 2 specific things -  1 increase his walk rate - he has.   2 - related to the first be more discerning on the pitches to hit - hit your pitch that you can do damage on rather than one out of the zone that you can hit but do little with.   This shows he can adjust.    BA, OBP, and OPS all up.   

I'll take a bet that neither of us will remember.  I bet he has a 10 year career.   

Just an FYI, but his chase rate has actually gotten worse. He's chasing more this year than he did last year. Difference is that he's swinging more in general and making more contact. He hasn't actually adjusted his approach in any meaningful way.

[big dog]

1 hour ago, ryan189 said:

easy to take snap shots his k rate is one of the best on the team since 6/23

7 games 11.2 innings

10ks

1.54 era

1.03 whip

1.58 baa

True, I didn't randomly pick that sample. I was just providing more context to the 8 scoreless innings that started all this.

Look at the whole year if you like. His ERA is 5.16, his WHIP is the same as it was in those 8 innings. His K rate is better for the full year than it was for those 8 innings. My point was, those 8 innings don't tell us much positive except he didn't give up a run. Pick any smaller sample you like to show me he's great, that's fine.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, William K Johnson said:

How about a shoutout for Alex Jackson.   Saw the kid hit a home run at Lakeland earlier this year and have not seen anything yet that indicates that he is overmatched up here.

The "kid" is 30 years old. That said, I'm a pretty big fan. If the pitchers give him a chance, he will throw out a higher percentage of base stealers than Caratini or Jeffers and he appears to be as good a receiver as either of his catching teammates. He has a few bunt hits this season and enough power to reach the seats easily. I'm confortable with Jackson being the backup catcher the remainder of this season and starting 2027, whenever the games actually star.

51 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

And his batting average is .200, he has had one good game with the walk off hit.  This profiles to a good 4th outfielder type, results do matter.

Nothing about Roden jumps out and says "star" to me. He appears to be a competent corner outfielder who'll hit for an above-average OBP, but with so-so power. That the Twins have used Keaschall in center to back up Buxton says something about Roden. 

 

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lee will be out of baseball in a couple years. It's nice that he's having his very own Danny Santana one year breakthrough, but eventually, the regression will happen. The Twins certainly need all the help they can get so I'm glad Brooks is rolling a lot of doubles, but only a couple times in a row, and avoiding all the hotels on Boardwalk.

I don't think Lee will be an All-Star, but I think he'll have a decent career. The best news has been he's been healthy for more than a year now and he has produced in run-scoring situations. 

 

56 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Hopefully Caratini just needs a day or two off. Jackson is showing how valuable he is. Multiple days off and still performs.

If Caratini can't go for two or three days, they should IL him IMHO. They would be okay with Jeffers and Jackson and Vic would be eligible to come off the IL just before the trade deadline.

[big dog]

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I'll take a bet that neither of us will remember.  I bet he has a 10 year career.   

I'm not sure I will go for a 10-year career, but if the bet is "he'll be out of baseball in two years", sign me up for the over. No question.

[HarmonK03]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

On that walkoff he was also 2 ft shy of a grandslam.   Alas -  Roden comes down to 1 thing in my opinion - his confidence and can he show he can do it at this level.   Under the hood looks good,  the effort is good, the defense is good.  You can say he got lucky getting on errors or otherwise.  For me I would have him down for 2 hits - 1 BB and got on 2 more times with errors.   He scored 2 runs.  That is a really good night.  

When talking about small sample sizes,  with 1 more hit his batting average is .240- OBP .340 and if he hit the home run - Slugging .360.   Thats a .700 OPS.   He may still be a 4th outfielder,  or he could be a better Larnach.  

Look at his career numbers, not this year, nothing is saying he is going to be a star.  He has not been able to take advantage of opportunities given to him and I don't think they should force one for him now.  I am not replacing Keaschall or Larnach with Roden.  And quite honestly if Larnach is traded  I would rather have Jenkins up here.  Roden is going to be 27 before next season, his window is starting to close.

[ryan189]

6 minutes ago, big dog said:

True, I didn't randomly pick that sample. I was just providing more context to the 8 scoreless innings that started all this.

Look at the whole year if you like. His ERA is 5.16, his WHIP is the same as it was in those 8 innings. His K rate is better for the full year than it was for those 8 innings. My point was, those 8 innings don't tell us much positive except he didn't give up a run. Pick any smaller sample you like to show me he's great, that's fine.

not saying he is great has basically had 2 bad outings 5 runs in Chicago and 3runs in arizona in not close games other then that has been very solid

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

9 minutes ago, big dog said:

I'm not sure I will go for a 10-year career, but if the bet is "he'll be out of baseball in two years", sign me up for the over. No question.

He is already at 3.  He would need 7 more and play till his age 32 year.  I could see him having a 15-20 WAR career possibly higher- but just being an everyday solid player.   A much more refined Kyle Farmer (He has had a 10 year career).  

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Look at his career numbers, not this year, nothing is saying he is going to be a star.  He has not been able to take advantage of opportunities given to him and I don't think they should force one for him now.  I am not replacing Keaschall or Larnach with Roden.  And quite honestly if Larnach is traded  I would rather have Jenkins up here.  Roden is going to be 27 before next season, his window is starting to close.

I'm certainly not going to fight for the idea that Roden is some sort of key piece for the Twins future, but Trevor Larnach hit .213/.311/.415 in his age 26 season. That was his 3rd year in the bigs. Through those first 3 years he was hitting .222/.315/.385. Only real difference between Larnach's bat and Roden's is the slugging. If Roden can't slug the same .385ish that Larnach did, his career is over. But his sample size is way too small to make any final determination on yet. 

Again, not claiming he's any sort of vital piece, and he shouldn't be one to block Jenkins, but writing a player off after 183 PAs is a good way to lose a lot of good players. He's likely just a 4th OFer, but 4th OFers are also important. Because at some point during the season they're going to become a top 3 OFer. The Twins need to give him more runway to see if he can get settled and get his numbers up as they settle in over a larger sample size.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Just an FYI, but his chase rate has actually gotten worse. He's chasing more this year than he did last year. Difference is that he's swinging more in general and making more contact. He hasn't actually adjusted his approach in any meaningful way.

Even still his walk rate is increasing.  His stats with RISP are incredibly good.  

[stringer bell]

Span indicated tha the official scoring in Cleveland has been suspect. I certainly agree. In order to protect ERAs, of Cleveland pitchers, a couple of scratch hits have been ruled errors and on the flip side, some pretty obvious errors have been ruled hits for Guards hitters. In a different setting Roden might have had three hits yesterday. Lewis certainly and Clemens possibly could have been charged with errors in the past couple of days. 

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

He has had almost 200 ab's in the major leagues and his batting average is .193 and OPS of .547.  These numbers don't scream that you take AB's away from more productive players or hold back your #1 prospect.  He has not been able to take advantage of his stints with us or Toronto and he is running out of time to show it.  There are guys coming up behind him that this sample size regardless of how big will not be enough for him to hold them off.  He had regular playing time with Toronto at the beginning of last year and did not grab hold of the opportunity given and then they traded him.  I am not sure where that merits him getting playing time over others.

Check his statcast page. His strikeout rate is down, walk rate is up, hard hit and barrel rates are up, exit velocity is up. He has made clear improvements at the plate.

[HarmonK03]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm certainly not going to fight for the idea that Roden is some sort of key piece for the Twins future, but Trevor Larnach hit .213/.311/.415 in his age 26 season. That was his 3rd year in the bigs. Through those first 3 years he was hitting .222/.315/.385. Only real difference between Larnach's bat and Roden's is the slugging. If Roden can't slug the same .385ish that Larnach did, his career is over. But his sample size is way too small to make any final determination on yet. 

Again, not claiming he's any sort of vital piece, and he shouldn't be one to block Jenkins, but writing a player off after 183 PAs is a good way to lose a lot of good players. He's likely just a 4th OFer, but 4th OFers are also important. Because at some point during the season they're going to become a top 3 OFer. The Twins need to give him more runway to see if he can get settled and get his numbers up as they settle in over a larger sample size.

That is a fair comp with Larnach but the one difference is there was no one coming up behind Larnach to push him.  They could have easily taken ERod or Roden out of spring training as they both outplayed Outman. 

The point is how do you give him the runway currently, trade Larnach to play him, that to me is even more shortsighted.  Are you going to take AB's from Keaschall who has been hitting over .300 in the last month.  Trade  Bell and move Larnach to DH, not a fan of Bell but if they truly they are contenders then that is not a good move.  Don't forget he was given a month to establish himself and he didn't.  Again this trade didn't make sense with all the other similar players that are younger.  It feels like we are forcing him into the lineup because we traded for him.

Now if you trade both Larnach and Bell, I could see giving him some runway, but personally it would only be for the month of August.

[Colbeh]

39 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

He has had almost 200 ab's in the major leagues and his batting average is .193 and OPS of .547.  These numbers don't scream that you take AB's away from more productive players or hold back your #1 prospect.  He has not been able to take advantage of his stints with us or Toronto and he is running out of time to show it.  There are guys coming up behind him that this sample size regardless of how big will not be enough for him to hold them off.  He had regular playing time with Toronto at the beginning of last year and did not grab hold of the opportunity given and then they traded him.  I am not sure where that merits him getting playing time over others.

Tbf we're still talking about SSS, over 200 ABs he has about a 235ish BABIP and pretty much all of the analytic sites peg him for a .250 BA. Doesn't scream elite OFer but he walks a decent bit and strikeout % has historically been around 15%

I'd agree on getting more PAs for the younger guys since theres a little bit of a jam of guys with some form of potential.

OF : Buxton, Keaschall, Martin, Roden, and then Jenkins/Emma when theyre ready/healthy.

This is after trading Larnach, which like another person said is basically what Roden should become.

[HarmonK03]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Check his statcast page. His strikeout rate is down, walk rate is up, hard hit and barrel rates are up, exit velocity is up. He has made clear improvements at the plate.

Again we have 12 outfielders that need AB's between here and St. Paul.  Who becomes the priority, the one that is almost 27 and has yet to make the most of his opportunities in the major leagues or do you give AB's to the younger players with more potential upside.

[wornsmooth]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Hopefully Caratini just needs a day or two off. Jackson is showing how valuable he is. Multiple days off and still performs. 
 

That win was necessary if the Twins do go into buyers mode. We will see if they can go on a hot streak.

Lee has had some wierd anomalies in his splits the last couple of years. He continued to get better. I really think he will be the Twins super utility player down the road. 

My humble opinion.

Lee is a solid starter and second only to Bell as the teams best run producer.

Jefferson would be up there too if he hadn't been injured. 

Personal opinion.

The twins need to stop "developing" players and start concentrating on keeping their budding stars. Every effort should be made to keep Larnach and Jeffers. The complaint of money would diminish if they keep these guys so that MLB TV would strart featuring the Twins because they have players people want to watch.

This develop a player and then trade him stuff is a major part of them being a mediocre team.

 

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, Colbeh said:

Tbf we're still talking about SSS, over 200 ABs he has about a 235ish BABIP and pretty much all of the analytic sites peg him for a .250 BA. Doesn't scream elite OFer but he walks a decent bit and strikeout % has historically been around 15%

I'd agree on getting more PAs for the younger guys since theres a little bit of a jam of guys with some form of potential.

OF : Buxton, Keaschall, Martin, Roden, and then Jenkins/Emma when theyre ready/healthy.

This is after trading Larnach, which like another person said is basically what Roden should become.

Analytic sites can peg whatever number they want, the reality is where they are at.  Jenkins should be up here now and Emma probably will be either September or next year.  Trading Larnach and replacing him with Roden is foolish if they are trying to contend, which I don't think should think that.  But you still have a glut of outfielders and I am not in favor or prioritizing Roden any more than 6th or 7th on the list.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, HarmonK03 said:

Analytic sites can peg whatever number they want, the reality is where they are at.  Jenkins should be up here now and Emma probably will be either September or next year.  Trading Larnach and replacing him with Roden is foolish if they are trying to contend, which I don't think should think that.  But you still have a glut of outfielders and I am not in favor or prioritizing Roden any more than 6th or 7th on the list.

Jenkins is less than 2 weeks back from an injury.  Rodriguez is still injured.   The collective bargaining issue will likely  keep all the Twins prospects down the remainder of the year.    It is just what it is.   If they are brought up and there is a work stoppage they can't play in the minors next year.   This is prospect suicide for young players.   

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Jenkins is less than 2 weeks back from an injury.

FYI he has been back for a month and has been producing in that month.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, HarmonK03 said:

FYI he has been back for a month and has been producing in that month.

Fair enough -  I was off 2 weeks,  still doesn't negate the issues of the potential work stoppage.  Funny how you ignored that part.   I will give you credit that you are invested,  but beyond that you really don't look at the big picture.  

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Fair enough -  I was off 2 weeks,  still doesn't negate the issues of the potential work stoppage.  Funny how you ignored that part.   I will give you credit that you are invested,  but beyond that you really don't look at the big picture.  

I am looking at the big picture, and starting his development in the big leagues is better than waiting until later next year or 2028.  Assuming the whole year is cancelled is not where I am at.  There may be games cancelled but there is too much money at stake that there will be a season even if it is shortened.  And then everyone will say why bring him up for a shortened season.  Sitting for two months I think is negated by him being up here and starting his development to know what he needs to work on.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Lee will be out of baseball in a couple years. It's nice that he's having his very own Danny Santana one year breakthrough, but eventually, the regression will happen. The Twins certainly need all the help they can get so I'm glad Brooks is rolling a lot of doubles, but only a couple times in a row, and avoiding all the hotels on Boardwalk.

Santana fell apart after his rookie season but stuck around in baseball for 7 more seasons, including a very nice season as a utility guy in 2021 for Texas. Even if Brooks follows the Santana path, he'll be around for more than a couple of seasons.

It's a weird comp anyways: Lee has steadily improved over 3 seasons in MLB, whereas Santana had a great rookie season and then it went to hell on him. Santana is more like James Outman than Brooks Lee. Who Lee is like is a much more interesting question.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

I am looking at the big picture, and starting his development in the big leagues is better than waiting until later next year or 2028.  Assuming the whole year is cancelled is not where I am at.  There may be games cancelled but there is too much money at stake that there will be a season even if it is shortened.  And then everyone will say why bring him up for a shortened season.  Sitting for two months I think is negated by him being up here and starting his development to know what he needs to work on.

1 month in the big leagues is not better than not getting any coaching from November to potentially June of 2027 or maybe 2028.    Once it hits December 1st there is no more coaching for major league players.   Period.   

[TheLeviathan]

33 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

That is a fair comp with Larnach but the one difference is there was no one coming up behind Larnach to push him.  They could have easily taken ERod or Roden out of spring training as they both outplayed Outman. 

The point is how do you give him the runway currently, trade Larnach to play him, that to me is even more shortsighted.  Are you going to take AB's from Keaschall who has been hitting over .300 in the last month.  Trade  Bell and move Larnach to DH, not a fan of Bell but if they truly they are contenders then that is not a good move.  Don't forget he was given a month to establish himself and he didn't.  Again this trade didn't make sense with all the other similar players that are younger.  It feels like we are forcing him into the lineup because we traded for him.

Now if you trade both Larnach and Bell, I could see giving him some runway, but personally it would only be for the month of August.

Why would trading a 29 year old with basically no team control to open up playing time for a 26 year old with lots of team control be short-sighted? 

We're not truly contenders and Larnach is not a good fielder.  (Roden likely isn't either)  Bell is a butcher in the field.  We should be using this deadline to realign our roster to better pave the way for young players.  Not clutch to them while we piddle around with a lame wildcard spot we backed into.

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

Why would trading a 29 year old with basically no team control to open up playing time for a 26 year old with lots of team control be short-sighted? 

We're not truly contenders and Larnach is not a good fielder.  (Roden likely isn't either)  Bell is a butcher in the field.  We should be using this deadline to realign our roster to better pave the way for young players.  Not clutch to them while we piddle around with a lame wildcard spot we backed into.

I don't disagree, but Roden is not a young player anymore either.  Depending on who he is blocking, I would not 100% commit playing time to him.  I don't think they are contenders either, I said if they think they are.  But I think there are other players that should get time before Roden.

[Colbeh]

12 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Analytic sites can peg whatever number they want, the reality is where they are at.  Jenkins should be up here now and Emma probably will be either September or next year.  Trading Larnach and replacing him with Roden is foolish if they are trying to contend, which I don't think should think that.  But you still have a glut of outfielders and I am not in favor or prioritizing Roden any more than 6th or 7th on the list.

I understand where you're coming from and you're not wrong. Theres maybe 7 or 8 guys that need some ML at bats in the OF and Roden probably falls towards the bottom of that rankings.

Im not in favor of holding or buying at the deadline, more of a buy/sell approach and see how it plays out.

But if they want ABs for all these guys then they need to consider trading guys with some value and thats Larnach. Martin, Keaschall, and Roden can all have some real value for the future Twins.

Jenkins will be up soon, Emma is talented but that guy has never been healthy, Gabby is interesting but probably more like a RH Roden. 

 

[chpettit19]

53 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Even still his walk rate is increasing.  His stats with RISP are incredibly good.  

Yeah, I'm not saying he's having a bad year, but the question being discussed was essentially where his career goes from here. Your argument was that he's shown he can make adjustments. I'm just saying he hasn't actually made those adjustments. I won't claim he'll be out of baseball in a couple years (top 10 picks aren't tossed aside easily), but I also don't think he's really shown anything sustainable. RISP are incredibly volatile.