What Last Year's Fire Sale (Better Have) Taught the Twins

[RaoulDuke]

7 hours ago, h2oface said:

Abel now out for the year. Got about 20 innings of about 4 ERA this year and 4 “forgettable” outings last year. Tait will become an afterthought with Lackey drafted. The Duran trade becomes more despised as time goes on. 

I am still think Abel has some real potential to be a major piece, the stuff is real if he can stay healthy.  Tait is still very young and catching prospects are a nice trade chip to have if you are deep in them.

[HarmonK03]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

And he brought the FO in to the 21st Century in regard to analysts and scouting.

He cut the staff of pro scouts from 5 to 1 last September to focus on analytics and more video scouting.  Most teams average around 10 pro scouts.  I am not sure how that is bringing the organization into the 21st century.  I am not a fan of analytics when it is not used as a tool but as the driving force of decision making.  There needs to be a balance and with Falvey we tipped way too far to the analytics side.

I agree with most everything else you wrote but that is one point I felt the need to comment on.  I do think Zoll is not the one to lead this organization and Tom P.  needs to be looking now and make a change the day after the season ends.

[MinnInPa]

14 hours ago, weitz41 said:

The poor corpse of the Varland trade..I mean, can we kick that damn horse a few more times? Varland was a borderline set up guy in the 2025 pen. Jax was always the 1st choice to bridge to Duran. Is the Bluejays BP coach on the Twins staff this year and last year to get him to where he is now? There are so many variables to players having success. CAN we please move on. 

Roden has 21 AB in MLB this season. Rojas has pitched a total of 19.1 MLB innings this season. Abel 20.1 innings in MLB. Outman is a part of the fire sale? Stewart has managed what? 20 innings since the trade?

If you can't move on there's a gallon of sour milk in the fridge, help yourself....

agreed ..Varland was very avg when traded... didnt look like much of a loss to me . Jax and Duran hurt though..they cant be replaced..and havent been with the current lot we have . not a single one could be trusted with a 3 run lead

[Linus]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

He cut the staff of pro scouts from 5 to 1 last September to focus on analytics and more video scouting.  Most teams average around 10 pro scouts.  I am not sure how that is bringing the organization into the 21st century.  I am not a fan of analytics when it is not used as a tool but as the driving force of decision making.  There needs to be a balance and with Falvey we tipped way too far to the analytics side.

I agree with most everything else you wrote but that is one point I felt the need to comment on.  I do think Zoll is not the one to lead this organization and Tom P.  needs to be looking now and make a change the day after the season ends.

Brian Cashman was asked what role analytics plays in the Yankees decision making. Im paraphrasing but he said it’s the foundation for forming their team. After that adjustments are made based on what they see is happening on the field. This approach feels different than the Twins, especially under Falvey. 

[HarmonK03]

3 minutes ago, Linus said:

Brian Cashman was asked what role analytics plays in the Yankees decision making. Im paraphrasing but he said it’s the foundation for forming their team. After that adjustments are made based on what they see is happening on the field. This approach feels different than the Twins, especially under Falvey. 

I agree, the only reason I can see that Gray started as much as he did is analytics.  This is where they really lose me on the use.  I get there is a place for them but adjust when the eyes tell you something different.

[bean5302]

1) Bullpens are easy to build. Just have to spend a little money. Guess what the Twins learned for the scenario? Falvey needed to go, now. It was the most important lesson this franchise could have learned as Falvey was the single biggest problem in the organization.

2) "Prospects aren't guaranteed" isn't a new lesson. Everybody in baseball knows this. I feel like the writer should also know this? What was guaranteed is a high degree of likelihood what the Twins got back in their trades made them better this year.

3) Correa's trade savings were 100% reinvested. The budget for 2026 was established before the end of 2025. If Correa was still here, the Twins would still be spending $105MM or whatever it is. Correa would just be eating $32MM or whatever.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

1) Bullpens are easy to build. Just have to spend a little money. Guess what the Twins learned for the scenario? Falvey needed to go, now. It was the most important lesson this franchise could have learned as Falvey was the single biggest problem in the organization.

2) "Prospects aren't guaranteed" isn't a new lesson. Everybody in baseball knows this. I feel like the writer should also know this? What was guaranteed is a high degree of likelihood what the Twins got back in their trades made them better this year.

3) Correa's trade savings were 100% reinvested. The budget for 2026 was established before the end of 2025. If Correa was still here, the Twins would still be spending $105MM or whatever it is. Correa would just be eating $32MM or whatever.

 

Bean - You know what the biggest lesson is?  That the Twins were needing to do a full rebuild rather than continuing the mediocrity.   If we can string together multiple years of good draft picks,  get some good talent in from trades,   it will open up the next window for the Twins to really compete.   

I could argue the Twins are showing you can rebuild a bullpen on the fly from scratch.   The bullpen is trending toward solid.  It still needs some work but if the pitching and hitting can hold on the bullpen only needs 1-2 more legit arms to be above average.   For a small market team that you sold something that could be in all reality rebuilt fairly cheaply its a win.  There is no other position you can do that with.  Starting pitching - no,  Catcher no,  Shortstop - no.   They have to know an area they can excel in to get outperformance for minimal investment.   I think this stays with the Twins long term.  

[amjgt]

18 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Savings on Correa: $21.5M

Free agent signings:
Bell: $7M
Caratini: $10M
Rogers: $2M

I guess I'm not following the logic that says they didn't redeploy the savings from the Correa trade. True, they didn't explicitly link the Correa savings when announcing any of these signings (they never do), but that's $19M in free agent spending that seems unlikely to have happened if they still had Correa's full salary on the books.

That also doesn't count signing Larnach for $4.475M when he was strongly considered to be a non-tender candidate. Add that and they more than redeployed the Correa savings.

Imagine how different this year's club would look without those four available. 

EDIT to add: I note that elsewhere you have a post pleading for an extension on Bradley. Depending on terms, I would potentially support that. Having moved $21.5M of Correa's salary for future years makes that a much more viable option.  

 

This is all meaningful and I would add that if they were not able to move Correa's $21M off the books, they might have attempted to move different money off the books in the offseason (Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, etc). Correa's $21M staying on the books doesn't magically make ownership OK with a payroll that is $21M higher. 

[JADBP]

22 hours ago, h2oface said:

Abel now out for the year. Got about 20 innings of about 4 ERA this year and 4 “forgettable” outings last year. Tait will become an afterthought with Lackey drafted. The Duran trade becomes more despised as time goes on. 

While I agree that moving Duran for such light talent is egregious, nothing compares to the Varland Trade for absolute idiocy!  Someone had a total brain collapse when they accept that trade!  Imagine if we had Varland today.....instead of Roden and Rojas?  No wonder Falvey got fired!

[IndianaTwin]

7 hours ago, amjgt said:

This is all meaningful and I would add that if they were not able to move Correa's $21M off the books, they might have attempted to move different money off the books in the offseason (Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, etc). Correa's $21M staying on the books doesn't magically make ownership OK with a payroll that is $21M higher. 

I wasn’t making any statement on whether I thought this was the best way to spend it (though it might appear that way with my attempt to parrot the OP with my “Imagine how…” sentence). 

And I wasn’t saying they shouldn’t have done more. Rather, I was trying to rebut the notion that the FO did nothing with the money saved on Correa. 

[TheLeviathan]

On 7/21/2026 at 6:49 PM, Sjoski said:

I keep hearing the Twins have a "log-jam" of outfielders.

A true "logjam" is when two guys are hitting .290 with 20 homers and someone gets squeezed onto the bench.

In reality,  outside of Buxton,  all the Twins actually have right now is just a rotation of unproven MLB players and or mediocre ones at that. 

You're confusing the problem.  It absolutely is a logjam.  You seem to be taking issue with framing it as a "surplus".  That's fine, but there is undoubtedly a logjam.  The 40 man roster simply isn't balanced proportionally at that position.

Which is all the more reason to free up LF and DH so that we can continue to find out if the logjam can actually become a surplus.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Last year's trade deadline was mostly understandable up until Louis Varland. Hated the trade when it happened and hate it ever more now. 

Jax trade. Love it. So glad hes no longer on the team. 

Duran trade. Not a fan of the return, bit I understand why the trade was made. 

Correa was a cancer. He needed to go. 

Outman for an injured reliever. Terrible return but no longer our problem. 

Paddack trade. Im surprised we got anything. Kudos

This deadline should hopefully be better. We have prospects that can be traded to strengthen our team. Tait comes to mind after drafting Lackey. Tons of AAA OFers. It can be done.