The Twins Need to Trade Joe Ryan at the Deadline

[TheLeviathan]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But it's hard for me to be mad at the deals they made anymore. They're mostly looking pretty darn solid.

I mostly like the deals too.  The one I like least is the Varland one which I think is a fairly non-controversial stance.  (I hope Rojas works out well.  I have some doubts)

Roden should've been given the 1B job though, that's where I start scratching my head.

[The Great Hambino]

15 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Honestly, this forgone conclusion that the Twins should trade Joe is kind of silly. The AL is SO bad this year that 5 games under .500 and your still in it for a wild card. Now throw in the central being even worse than expected. At this point of the season with WHAT 50% of the BP waiver wire pick-ups and 3 of tonight's starting 9 from the same place. Just ride it out. A little buy and a little sell. Fill in with AAA guys and ride it out.

Save that big trade for the winter meetings.

There aren't even going to be winter meetings this season due to the lockout.  I'm not yet convinced there will be missed games next season, but there 100% will be a lockout that halts all offseason business.  Because of this, I don't think we see very much trade activity leading up to the official lockout date given all the uncertainty there will be at that time.

But this year's postseason isn't uncertain.  And the idea that being sorta within shouting distance of the last wild card is not real contention.  Were the Reds contenders last year?  To me, they were not even though they happened to fill the playoff bracket.  And if teams in this position do think of themselves as contenders, then that means the pool of buyers (demand) will be big and the pool of sellers (supply) will be low.  That is a very good environment in which to be a seller.

It will suck, but Ryan will and should be traded at the deadline.

[twinstalker]

Not only do you need to trade Ryan, you need to do it asap.  Injury risk is high, and if you can get a good package now, it's time.  I'm not sure what people wanting to hold onto Ryan expect will happen with him, but the answer is that he'll be playing with some other team two years from now no matter what.

[TJSweens]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

As it turns out, Joe Ryan has a say in whether or not the Twins extend him. And if you listened to his public comments after the trade deadline, you may not be inclined to believe he'd sign an extension here. They could overpay him to get him to sign, but that would then have the opposite effect on his trade value.

And I'd say they can get pretty much the same now as the could've last year. We're not talking an extra top 100 prospect or anything. It'd be a slight improvement on the 3rd or 4th prospect in the deal. There isn't some massive swing in value going from 2.5 to 1.5 in controlled years.

I think you underestimate the impact of that additional year of team control and Joe being a year older. The impact is at the top of the deal, not the bottom. Last year potential deals revolved around a minimum of two top 100 prospects with one being elite or even a good young major leaguer. Now they are talking about a deal built around a single top 100.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

I think you underestimate the impact of that additional year of team control and Joe being a year older. The impact is at the top of the deal, not the bottom. Last year potential deals revolved around a minimum of two top 100 prospects with one being elite or even a good young major leaguer. Now they are talking about a deal built around a single top 100.

I'm happy to be proven wrong if you can show me some examples of significantly larger returns for guys traded with 2.5 years of control compared to similar guys traded with 1.5 years of control.

Who's "they?" I'm certainly not talking about it being built around a single top 100 prospect. The value should absolutely still be 2 big time prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

I think you underestimate the impact of that additional year of team control and Joe being a year older. The impact is at the top of the deal, not the bottom. Last year potential deals revolved around a minimum of two top 100 prospects with one being elite or even a good young major leaguer. Now they are talking about a deal built around a single top 100.

No way it's only one top 100 guy unless that guy is in the top ten or so. No way. They aren't getting less than a top thirty guy and two more guys, or two guys in the fifty to seventy range. 

[killercarewoliva]

21 hours ago, karcherd said:

Why do we need more prospects, we either don't develop or play the ones we have now.  So let's just load up on some more to sit behind the AAAA types and aging vets.

I don't want Zoll anywhere near making this type of decision for this organization.  We need someone leading baseball operations who knows what they are doing.

in a word YES

[Mike Sixel]

Man, looking at the prospect lists, I'm not in love with several lists from contenders. Hopefully they find a great package...

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Man, looking at the prospect lists, I'm not in love with several lists from contenders. Hopefully they find a great package...

Caminiti and Hartman from Atlanta is my #1 hope right now.

[Linus]

The Twins are in a great spot. They can hold out for excellent value. If nobody offers up appropriate value don’t trade him. 

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, Glorybound said:

Because even as an arbitration player Joe is going to cost more than our cheap owners want to spend.

I think they'll spend to keep him.

[jkcarew]

One, it’s too late to extend him. He’s going to test the market. And even a hard cap (as unlikely as that is) wouldn’t suppress the top end of the market. This is proven in Football, and something he and his agent are betting on.

Two, the Twins won’t outbid everyone when he hits the market.

Yes, you have to trade him.