Joe Ryan and the Elephant in the Room

[Linus]

My view is the first option should be to trade Ryan at the deadline. And I’m not saying this based on money - I’m saying this because the Twins need a talent injection and trading Ryan is the most powerful way to do it. Here is a list of positions where the Twins don’t need an upgrade: CF. We have some promising prospects but not all are going to make it meaning we will still be short of the talent level required to be a top team. 
I referenced this as the first option because we have a choice. If we don’t get close to mlb talent of high ceiling in return then we simply don’t do it. We wait until the off season or next deadline or enjoy his pitching and give him the qualifying offer (if there is such a thing going forward). Bottom line is the right move could be trading Joe or hanging on to Joe depending on the return. 

[Whitey333]

Yes the Twins should trade Ryan and probably Jeffers too.  I just don't see the Twins paying upwards to $30 million per year to Ryan.  He is g

[Glorybound]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

My view is the first option should be to trade Ryan at the deadline. And I’m not saying this based on money - I’m saying this because the Twins need a talent injection and trading Ryan is the most powerful way to do it. Here is a list of positions where the Twins don’t need an upgrade: CF. We have some promising prospects but not all are going to make it meaning we will still be short of the talent level required to be a top team. 
I referenced this as the first option because we have a choice. If we don’t get close to mlb talent of high ceiling in return then we simply don’t do it. We wait until the off season or next deadline or enjoy his pitching and give him the qualifying offer (if there is such a thing going forward). Bottom line is the right move could be trading Joe or hanging on to Joe depending on the return. 

Joe Ryan’s trade value will only go down the longer you hold him. The bullpen demolition done last year pretty much determines the path forward from this point. If you wanted to extend Joe then that should have been done 2  to 3 years ago. The hands of time don’t turn backwards. If I were a team looking to acquire his services I would be willing to pay more now knowing I have him for two postseason runs as opposed to just a rental for one postseason run providing he stays healthy.

[dcswede]

With the hard cap/floor on the table, and the potential of a prolonged strike, it wouldn't make any sense for the Twins to do more with their roster than tinker around the margins until things are finalized one way or the other ... no matter how long that may take.

[chpettit19]

I don't think they can, or would, extend Ryan. So, trade him. As soon as they get the wonderful trade package that will absolutely come their way. Pablo Lopez is exactly the reason you trade him. Or his 100% rate of fading in the 2nd half of seasons. Trade Joe Ryan. Get a haul. And start preparing for the future. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, dcswede said:

With the hard cap/floor on the table, and the potential of a prolonged strike, it wouldn't make any sense for the Twins to do more with their roster than tinker around the margins until things are finalized one way or the other ... no matter how long that may take.

If you are betting there will be a prolonged strike, why would you sit on your hands, especially given the current team is not a contender.  Move the players set to expire this year and next and position the team for 2028.

[chpettit19]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You are correct in saying we shall see.

Shaw isn't as good as Brooks Lee (imo), so he doesn't work. Most of the Cub prospects are lower down the spectrum. I like Pedro Ramirez the best of the lot.

The Dodgers have a ton of outfielders and mid to back of the rotation starters. None of their guys are that interesting. The highest rated bat is a DH.

Boston likely doesn't trade for Joe Ryan. I would love Franklin Arias and Anthony Eyanson.

Texas has Sebastian Walcott and he is going to be a RF, where we expect Walker Jenkins to play.

It is going to be quite difficult to find a solid trade for Ryan. I wonder if there is any way to convince Sacramento that their team would be better with a package of guys for Leo De Vries. Ryan, Prielipp or Hill, Lewis, and Roden. It would be a gamble for both sides. I guess we shall just wait and see.

Hartman, Caminiti, and 2 other pieces or JR Ritchie from the Braves. Done and done.

I think you're underselling the Dodgers' outfielders, though. I'd certainly prefer a legit fielder, but if De Paula is going to be an Alvarez/Martinez/Ortiz/Cruz type DH, I'd be very happy with him as the centerpiece of a deal. Up to the Twins to decide if he can be that, and get him there if he can. I think Quintero, Sirota, and Hope are all intriguing as well. Not big on Tibbs or River, but as the 3rd or 4th piece in a deal they would be very nice. If you can snag 3 or 4 of those guys you should jump at it.

I wish Baltimore had a little more in the minors as they've been my destination for Ryan for a while. Was hoping for a Ryan for Basallo deal last year. That ship has sailed (unless Baltimore is getting real crazy). Ike Irish is interesting as a possible long-term 1B solution, but I don't think I'd be real happy with him as the centerpiece. Him and George is a solid 1-2 punch in a deal, but I don't think I'd love any realistic deal with them.

Walcott is certainly incredibly intriguing, but he's going to miss essentially this entire season so I'd want another top 50ish guy with him and I don't think Texas has one which would make a deal with them pretty tough.

Milwaukee would be the ideal situation as they have premium up the middle players coming out of their ears, but they'd be putting themselves in the same situation as the Twins with Ryan under short control so I'm not sure you're talking them into Made or Pena.

I think there's deals to be done, though. Teams will throw a bunch at the Twins if he keeps rolling like he is now. 

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If you are betting there will be a prolonged strike, why would you sit on your hands, especially given the current team is not a contender.  Move the players set to expire this year and next and position the team for 2028.

Agreed.  Also, whatever money you think you may have to sign him for would then become an asset in space below the floor you could leverage to sign players or take on bad contracts for prospects.

Love Joe, but moving him is the right move.  Buck probably too, sad as it is to say.

[laloesch]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If you are betting there will be a prolonged strike, why would you sit on your hands, especially given the current team is not a contender.  Move the players set to expire this year and next and position the team for 2028.

This.

[laloesch]

23 hours ago, Glorybound said:

One has to ask if you were Joe Ryan would you sign an extension with the twins? 

He won't.  I'm fairly certain he would go out west to one of the California teams if he hit free agency and that doesn't help the Twins in negotiating a trade.  All the Dodgers have to do is wait it out if they want.  They don't need him right away.

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If you are betting there will be a prolonged strike, why would you sit on your hands, especially given the current team is not a contender.  Move the players set to expire this year and next and position the team for 2028.

I said multiple times during the off-season that I would have traded Joe Ryan at peak value. I thought it was incredibly risky to wait. 

However... I have a new thought that just occurred to me after I read the TD article from Sam Caulder about slow playing their prospects. 

Here's the new thought. Perhaps Joe Ryan wasn't at Peak Value this off-season or at peak value now. 

Is it possible that the value of his two years of service time remaining was compromised by concern over a lengthy lockout?

If front offices are taking that into consideration it would stand to reason that the price is going to be much lower. If they are just going to get this year out of him.

Theoretically... it makes sense... what I don't know is... do front offices think there will be a work stoppage and are front offices acting accordingly. 

[laloesch]

On 5/28/2026 at 4:32 PM, NYCTK said:

Well, the Twins are one of the few that are regularly spending significantly under what their market size would suggest is feasible. So they're pretty unique in their cheapness. 

They are horribly mismanaged too.  The Pohlad's rolled over 400 million in their commercial debt holdings onto the team from that motor company they owned which torpedoed that first sale attempt late last season with the new minority owner of the White Sox.  They also were supposedly operating at a yearly loss of 25+ million before they dumped payroll last season.  So needless to say, they appear to be nearly tapped out around 125-150 million a year. Not good.  Now how much of that is self-imposed with the defunct TV deals and streaming issues I'm not sure, but they haven't helped their own cause.  It seems like they just have coasted and milked the cow since the new stadium was built.   

[jorgenswest]

Doesn’t “elephant in the room” mean that everyone is aware but no one wants to discuss?

The framework for a Joe Ryan trade is the deal Derek Falvey made with Jose Berrios. Get two top 100 FV50 prospects (entering the season Fangraphs had Martin 40 and SWR at 76] and then reinvest the money that Ryan would have earned back into the roster. The Twins traded 1+ seasons of Berrios and a good prospect in Chase Petty for 2 useful seasons of Sonny Gray, two good prospects and a then a comp pick for Gray.

 

[jorgenswest]

The demand for a top player traded in season is always the current season. That won’t change. The excess value contract wise is always in those earlier arb years. That last year arb award for any top player is pretty expensive cutting his excess value. As long as there is demand in this season I think teams will be aggressive for the few top starters that are available.

[Mike Sixel]

Perusing playoff team lists of prospects, and oddly many of them are actually fielding rookies, not Josh Bell, Outman, et. al...... Many of the top prospects are in the majors.... Not in Minnesota! Zero, zero, rookie hitters and only one last year.....