Off the 40 man.....

[Chris Hove]

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Laweryson has no ability to negotiate his contract.

Yep, understood. I viewed it as the Twins not wanting to pay him north of $820,000 next year if he has a good year this year.

[Danchat]

6 hours ago, Chris Hove said:

I really liked Lawyerson —yes, small sample size and only a 3-pitch mix —but he threw his fastball and changeup at extremely effective rates. For a position of need, it seems mysterious that the Twins didn't keep him. I assume he wanted $20,000 more than the Twins wanted to give him, so they cut him loose.

I don't think it's mysterious, they see him as a AAAA guy and didn't call him up until we were halfway through September. They didn't believe he could offer the team anything even right after the entire bullpen was traded away, 7 good innings wasn't enough to change their minds. They only saw him as a placeholder, and not even above the waiver wire fodder they filled the major league bullpen with.

[Riverbrian]

On 11/7/2025 at 8:44 AM, jorgenswest said:

I think the best staffs are very good at predetermination. Playing time at the majors is limited. I don’t think any organization can afford to give all of their players that reach the 40 the necessary playing sample to determine. Successful small and mid market teams will be good at determining the likelihood of success prior to arrival at the majors

We need the Twins to be very good at projecting as players arrive at the majors. Play Brooks Lee nearly every day. Bet on him and approach 1500 PAs. Maybe then you need to move on. Let them struggle and keep playing them. Everyday day. Have your answer prior to arbitration. Don’t waste too many days on the bench or you still want know when you get to arbitration.

Look at the Astros after they tore it down. After trades and drafts they had a lot of good prospects in the system. They played Altuve virtually every day for 2+ seasons. After 1536 plate appearances he was still a below average hitter (93 OPS+) but they won that bet. He really payed off as he it his arbitration years. They were also probably lucky he arrived a year or so below the prospect bubble. Gonzalez and Villar didn’t arrive until later and Altuve was established playing everyday before their arrival.

Once the prospect bubble hit they missed on a few trying to give playing time to too many. They had a glut of outfielders. All young. All good prospects with success in the minors. Some were prized prospects acquired in trade, They should have bet on JD Martinez. He had just 975 PAs after three years with the Astros and they didn’t tender him as he entered his arb years. With the glut of young outfield prospects they were splitting playing time among Martinez, Jordan Schafer, Chris Johnson, Brian Bogusevic, Fernando Martinez, LJ Hoes, Brandon Barnes and Robbie Grossman. All struggled as prearb players. None were taken to arbitration. They would have better betting on a few. They should have determined that Martinez was the guy. It wasn’t just outfielders. They missed on Jonathan Villar who was splitting time in the infield until he made it to arbitration. The DFA’d him and moved him in a minor trade to Milwaukee after three years. His first year in Milwaukee he stole 62 bases with an OPS+ of 117 playing shortstop everyday for them. Of course they were so bad they could afford to miss. Springer, Correa and Bregman were in the way. No splitting time for them.

No team has more FV45 and better prospects than the Twins. They also have several recent graduates that aren’t at arbitration yet including Wallner, Keaschall, Lee, Martin, Julien, Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa and Bradley. They need to bet on the right guys and they need to be good at it. Bet of Roden or not. Let’s not end the year with plate appearances in the 300s. They can’t waste too many of their prearb days on the bench or they will still be wondering as they hit arbitration. 

Front offices have to use predetermination to determine who gets roster spots. It can't be escaped and you best hope that your front office has some skill here. The limitations of the 40 man and 26 man requires that your front office has talent. I have no choice but to trust them because they do this for living and I do something entirely different. November 18th is the mother of all predeterminations. Not only do they need to determine who gets a 40 man spot but what players do other teams covet enough to draft away.  

I wouldn't worry about your 40 man getting a big enough playing time sample. I would simply worry about getting your 26 man a big enough sample. In that regard... I swear to everything holy that you can provide a big enough sample for all without compromising anyone's development. It's easy math and simple logic after that. 

I'm simply asking this. Do not predetermine that player X is not good enough to play, compete, earn a major league career with his own two hands if you have also predetermined that he gets a 26 man roster spot.

13 players through the filter as opposed to 9 is a bigger needle moving stat than any other stat in the universe and it isn't even close. All the stats that work around the margins. WAR, OBP, SLG, wOBA to make predeterminations. None of them hold a candle to the increased odds of success by simply increasing the number of attempts to 13 from 9.

If you are trying to produce 9 pairs of socks and you have very little consistency... maybe a 50% I don't know 33% failure rate. Why would you produce the bare minimum 9 pairs at a time when a significant percentage finish with holes in the toes. 

Why would you play Brooks Lee everyday at SS for 1500 AB's with no net... if you don't have to... and you don't have to. How would playing 4 out of 6 games hurt Brooks Lee? Ryan Jeffers has played 3 out of 6 games for the past 3 years. We are still talking more playing time than that. 

If the Twins could trade for a decent SS. I'll pick a name... Aiden Miller. They could break camp with Miller, Lewis, Keaschall, Lee. You have increased your odds of someone being successful. Lee is competing with Miller, Lewis and Keaschall. The Twins don't need to be 100% correct. They only need to be 75% correct. 100% to 75% is a big needle moving jump. Much Much bigger than two players comparing a .750 OPS to a .675 OPS. 

You bring up Jose Altuve. Jose Altuve is the poster boy of what I'm talking about. Never a top 30 prospect in the organization. He just happened to be on... the one team... perhaps the only team in baseball that had nobody else to turn to. After Keppinger was traded. They called him up from AA and told him "it was temporary until they found another 2nd baseman". He was 5 foot 6. 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-when-i-got-called-2011-told-temporary-jose-altuve-reflects-astros-journey-following-125-000-000-extension

He started his career with an 11 game hitting streak and he kept his opportunity from there. If Altuve was with any other club. We probably don't know who Altuve is. 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

I watched Altuve play several games in the California League. He really stood out. We had no doubt that he would be a major leaguer. We had no idea he would be a Hall of Famer. I think it helped quite a bit that he played nearly every day instead of 2 of 3. He needed a lot of major league plate appearances to become an average major league hitter much less one with impact. If they gave that same time to JD Martinez I think they make a better decision about him as he enters his fourth year in the majors.

That is where I think we disagree some on the use of the 13 position players on the roster. I would want to give near every day playing time to the players I think will make an impact. That will take some predetermination. I will make mistakes. If I am playing Martinez every day that is going to reduce the opportunity for Grossman or Hoes or Paredes or maybe all. These were all good prospects that were prizes in trades for Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and Lance Berkman respectively. They had too many outfielders and nobody was playing every day. All, including Martinez, were released after three years in the majors. Teams need to know after three years. Beyond three years players run out of options and they get more expensive as they enter the arbitration years.

[nicksaviking]

On 11/7/2025 at 11:26 AM, FlyingFinn said:

I remember a time when many on TD were clamoring for Kiersey and McCusker to get called up from AAA and then for more playing time with the Twins. Now everyone is clamoring for them to get DFA'd.  We get too excited about the new guy and sometimes don't have enough patience with the current guy (though I'm not saying we shouldn't cut these two as I am clamoring for Jenkins................the new guy!).

I'm not sure about the clamoring part. Any impatience about calling them up wasn't, "I can't wait to see these guys!!!", It was "Ugh, NEXT!"

[Riverbrian]

59 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

That is where I think we disagree some on the use of the 13 position players on the roster. I would want to give near every day playing time to the players I think will make an impact. That will take some predetermination. I will make mistakes.

It is where we disagree and I have too much respect for your opinions to say I'm right and you are wrong. 

However... "I will make mistakes" needs to be thought about some more. 

With everything invested in that mistake "that you will make". You are unnecessarily delaying the process of this re-whatever this is. You invested everything into that eventual mistake and now you got to start over. This makes the process longer.  

Are we to declare Martin is our everyday LF in 2026 and make Rodon watch him through hell and high water... if there is hell and high water? Especially when we don't have to do that. Especially when the margins are razor thin.       

Why would you try to predetermine the next wave right now purposely limiting opportunity to a select few knowing that only thing that is close to a guaranteed lock is that someone or someone's is going to fail. Especially when you don't have to. Limiting your choices to the minimum will get you less than the minimum nearly every single time.   

Royce Lewis has gotten every chance in the world including being allowed a year long slump. I'm not saying Royce should be tossed, I'm not saying that he should get no more opportunity but I am saying that he needs competition. Bets need to be hedged. The addition of a decent young SS, Allows Lee to compete with Lewis and the decent young SS and with Keaschall. I love Keaschall... He is a spark plug. I'm 100% in Camp Keaschall but there is no guarantee that he won't Julien or Outman in his 2nd season after a strong 1st year. 

Altuve? I'd imagine he'd look very impressive with the numbers he produced in the low minors. Lots of players produce in the minors and don't get a sniff of the majors. Altuve's are seen as rarities... of course they are rarities because teams don't provide the circumstances for rarities to be more common place. 

Just imagine... Altuve is signed by another team out of Venezuela. Let's say the White Sox... And the White Sox are busy providing every single opportunity to Gordon Beckham. 1st round Pick...8th Overall.

Beckham... Predetermined to be the next Brooks Lee.

We wouldn't know who Jose Altuve is. We wouldn't know that the White Sox made a huge mistake. We just know that they made a mistake with Beckham.     

 

 

[jorgenswest]

If they share the opportunity between Beckham and Altuve do they find either?  Altuve is an 93 OPS+ after three years and 1536 PAs. If don’t think he makes the same progress if he is on the bench twice a week.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

If they share the opportunity between Beckham and Altuve do they find either?  Altuve is an 93 OPS+ after three years and 1536 PAs. If don’t think he makes the same progress if he is on the bench twice a week.

In that scenerio... The only thing that kills Altuve is pre-determination.

Well... Lookie here... he has an OPS of .678. Told ya so. The dude is 5 foot 6. AAAA guy at best. He just can't catch up to major league pitching.   

Beckham has a .694... he gets all of the playing time and you've set yourself in stone with below average.    

It's really simple. Players who play everyday need to perform like players who should play everyday. If you are not Bryce Harper... you don't get the same amount of playing time that Bryce Harper gets. 

Otherwise you are committing everyday playing time to .678 OPS. 

4 out of 6 won't hinder progress because if the player starts to show what he can do. It will no longer be 4 out of 6. His playing time will go up accordingly.  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I watched Altuve play several games in the California League. He really stood out. We had no doubt that he would be a major leaguer. We had no idea he would be a Hall of Famer. I think it helped quite a bit that he played nearly every day instead of 2 of 3. He needed a lot of major league plate appearances to become an average major league hitter much less one with impact. If they gave that same time to JD Martinez I think they make a better decision about him as he enters his fourth year in the majors.

That is where I think we disagree some on the use of the 13 position players on the roster. I would want to give near every day playing time to the players I think will make an impact. That will take some predetermination. I will make mistakes. If I am playing Martinez every day that is going to reduce the opportunity for Grossman or Hoes or Paredes or maybe all. These were all good prospects that were prizes in trades for Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and Lance Berkman respectively. They had too many outfielders and nobody was playing every day. All, including Martinez, were released after three years in the majors. Teams need to know after three years. Beyond three years players run out of options and they get more expensive as they enter the arbitration years.

JD had an 88 OPS+ after 3 years. What's the difference between him and Altuve? I can't imagine that Altuve being 5 points higher was the determining factor. They had 2 guys performing below league average after 2.5 years. They were right on Altuve getting better and wrong on JD. JD was playing every day in 2012, like Altuve, but had a .681 OPS after August 9th and got demoted, then missed a month with an injury his 3rd year and was actually dropped before he hit arbitration. His first year with Detroit he was still on a league min deal as a pre-arb player because his first year in the majors was only half a year.

They simply got JD wrong. He changed his swing and approach when he went to Detroit and blew up. But the Astros had another year of control on him before arbitration and simply had determined he wasn't going to cut it.

[Riverbrian]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

simply had determined he wasn't going to cut it.

Predetermination

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

JD had an 88 OPS+ after 3 years. What's the difference between him and Altuve?

 561 plate appearances or 58% more.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

If they share the opportunity between Beckham and Altuve do they find either?  Altuve is an 93 OPS+ after three years and 1536 PAs. If don’t think he makes the same progress if he is on the bench twice a week.

This.  They stuck with altuve and let him play. They didn't block him with a mediocre veteran. They didn't lose patience and bench him. They did the opposite of what the Twins do. 

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

 561 plate appearances or 58% more.

561 PAs of extra confirmation that he was below average. They didn't foresee the swing and approach changes JD could/would make. He wasn't going to do that during 2013. That's not even up for debate because he played every day for them from April through September other than the month+ he was hurt. The extra PAs in 2012 when he was sent down wasn't going to change their minds.

Your other argument was "I don't think he makes the same progress if he is on the bench twice a week" when it comes to Altuve going from an 89 OPS+ in 2013 to a 135 OPS+ in 2014. Well JD went from a 79 OPS+ in 2013 to a 154 OPS+ in 2014. How does that equal the extra playing time being key to development? Altuve got an extra season's worth of PAs and JD still out hit him by 82 points of OPS in 2014.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

This.  They stuck with altuve and let him play. They didn't block him with a mediocre veteran. They didn't lose patience and bench him. They did the opposite of what the Twins do. 

Mike,

I can only speak for myself but I don't think anybody is talking mediocre veteran in this portion of the discussion. At least... I know for sure that I'm not. There is no way I want an IKF type mucking up the process.

Let me ask you this question. 

Let's say the Twins don't make any stunning moves. Let's say they stand pat with this roster. Let's say that Culpepper is just rocking during spring training and the Twins decide to send Culpepper North for opening day instead of Fitzgerald. 

With Culpepper, Lewis, Keaschall, Lee all on the 26 man roster to open the season.

1. Do you choose Culpepper or Lee to get all of the SS playing time?

2. Does the player you don't select between the two than become primarily a bench player or traded? 

3. Do you figure out how to work both players into the lineup? 

 

[MGX]

How does a player get blocked by a mediocre veteran. Either your good enough to take the playing time or your not. When players are presented with an opportunity it is on them to take advantage of it. 

I would tend to agree with the point on roster utilization - if you have 13 position players on the roster make sure they're all getting playing time so you know what you have.

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, MGX said:

How does a player get blocked by a mediocre veteran. Either your good enough to take the playing time or your not. When players are presented with an opportunity it is on them to take advantage of it. 

I would tend to agree with the point on roster utilization - if you have 13 position players on the roster make sure they're all getting playing time so you know what you have.

Because teams play veterans that aren't good all the time. They have to get rid of the veteran to even get playing time. 

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Mike,

I can only speak for myself but I don't think anybody is talking mediocre veteran in this portion of the discussion. At least... I know for sure that I'm not. There is no way I want an IKF type mucking up the process.

Let me ask you this question. 

Let's say the Twins don't make any stunning moves. Let's say they stand pat with this roster. Let's say that Culpepper is just rocking during spring training and the Twins decide to send Culpepper North for opening day instead of Fitzgerald. 

With Culpepper, Lewis, Keaschall, Lee all on the 26 man roster to open the season.

1. Do you choose Culpepper or Lee to get all of the SS playing time?

2. Does the player you don't select between the two than become primarily a bench player or traded? 

3. Do you figure out how to work both players into the lineup? 

 

I didn't have the information they do.... But given what I have, I put Lewis at first, Culpeper short, Lee third. And just roll with it all year. 

But I don't think that's your actual question. I think defense matters. Moving Lee and Culpeper around won't help that at all. I see no good path to a good shortstop by moving Culpeper to second or third two days a week. 

I pick the guys I believe in, and play them most every day. 

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I didn't have the information they do.... But given what I have, I put Lewis at first, Culpeper short, Lee third. And just roll with it all year. 

But I don't think that's your actual question. I think defense matters. Moving Lee and Culpeper around won't help that at all. I see no good path to a good shortstop by moving Culpeper to second or third two days a week. 

I pick the guys I believe in, and play them most every day. 

That was my actual question. 

May you stay healthy and productive. 

 

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because teams play veterans that aren't good all the time. They have to get rid of the veteran to even get playing time. 

Which player was blocked by a veteran? I do not think the answer should be a player the team could have found out that they were worse than mediocre except for the veteran player 

[MGX]

To me a plyer being "blocked" by another involves two good players & with good players there is usually a good solution.

A recent example is a player that's been talked about as someone the Twins should trade for - Tyler Soderstrom. He came up as a Catcher, but the A's already had Langeliers so I guess you could say he was blocked. In reality Soderstrom didn't produce in his rookie season. He earned another chance the following season & was moved to 1B. This time he produced so he stayed in MLB. Then the A's drafted Nick Kurtz & he also produced & was promoted. Initially he didn't get a lot of PT, but still played & when he produced they found a way to get both him & Soderstrom in the lineup by moving Soderstrom to LF.

The point of all of that, is if you produce teams will find a way for you to play. 

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, MGX said:

To me a plyer being "blocked" by another involves two good players & with good players there is usually a good solution.

A recent example is a player that's been talked about as someone the Twins should trade for - Tyler Soderstrom. He came up as a Catcher, but the A's already had Langeliers so I guess you could say he was blocked. In reality Soderstrom didn't produce in his rookie season. He earned another chance the following season & was moved to 1B. This time he produced so he stayed in MLB. Then the A's drafted Nick Kurtz & he also produced & was promoted. Initially he didn't get a lot of PT, but still played & when he produced they found a way to get both him & Soderstrom in the lineup by moving Soderstrom to LF.

The point of all of that, is if you produce teams will find a way for you to play. 

I agree with you completely. 

The only counter that I have is the roster spot itself.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

On 11/10/2025 at 1:29 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I didn't have the information they do.... But given what I have, I put Lewis at first, Culpeper short, Lee third. And just roll with it all year. 

But I don't think that's your actual question. I think defense matters. Moving Lee and Culpeper around won't help that at all. I see no good path to a good shortstop by moving Culpeper to second or third two days a week. 

I pick the guys I believe in, and play them most every day. 

Just coming in here; why Lewis at 1b and not Lee in this scenario?

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just coming in here; why Lewis at 1b and not Lee in this scenario?

I like Lee on defense at third, and he needs, imo, less change to concentrate on hitting. But I'd be ok either way 

My guess is that by the time this team is good, Lewis is traded anyway.... So I'm not sure it matters. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

43 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I like Lee on defense at third, and he needs, imo, less change to concentrate on hitting. But I'd be ok either way 

My guess is that by the time this team is good, Lewis is traded anyway.... So I'm not sure it matters. 

If Lewis is traded I can’t see it this offseason. And he was really pretty good defensively at 3b. 
I guess this is me kind of talking myself into giving Lee a 1b mitt. I’m hopeful he can also take a step forward with his bat

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

If Lewis is traded I can’t see it this offseason. And he was really pretty good defensively at 3b. 
I guess this is me kind of talking myself into giving Lee a 1b mitt. I’m hopeful he can also take a step forward with his bat

100 percent Lewis is not traded this year, agreed. But they are at least two years from being a good team.... And I don't see Lewis in Minnesota in three years. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

100 percent Lewis is not traded this year, agreed. But they are at least two years from being a good team.... And I don't see Lewis in Minnesota in three years. 

I do think they have a chance in the al central if the moves they make are smart: I am an optimist, but I do think there is enough talent that can get on the right track to be more competitive than that.

No one is competing with the Dodgers again in 2026. Or even about 5 teams in the nl along with how Toronto looked. 
 

But if a few things do break right (Lewis gets back to early 2024 form, Wallner isn’t Joey Gallo, a few other players take a step forward and Jenkins is the real deal to a certain extent) then I think they can be ok.

I keep coming back to, their record when they scored at least 4 runs in a game the last 3-4 years has been really good. I’m hopeful the offense will be able to pull its weight 

[old nurse]

24 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do think they have a chance in the al central if the moves they make are smart: I am an optimist, but I do think there is enough talent that can get on the right track to be more competitive than that.

No one is competing with the Dodgers again in 2026. Or even about 5 teams in the nl along with how Toronto looked. 
 

But if a few things do break right (Lewis gets back to early 2024 form, Wallner isn’t Joey Gallo, a few other players take a step forward and Jenkins is the real deal to a certain extent) then I think they can be ok.

I keep coming back to, their record when they scored at least 4 runs in a game the last 3-4 years has been really good. I’m hopeful the offense will be able to pull its weight 

There is nothing in their history that says Detroit abd Cleveland will return to the top of the division.  Cleveland blows through pitchers arms. Detroit got career years out of several players. If enough of the ifs go the Twins way they can be competitive in the division   They also could go the other direction   A case can be made for each.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, old nurse said:

There is nothing in their history that says Detroit abd Cleveland will return to the top of the division.  Cleveland blows through pitchers arms. Detroit got career years out of several players. If enough of the ifs go the Twins way they can be competitive in the division   They also could go the other direction   A case can be made for each.  

Agreed. I’d prefer to be optimistic too. I think the optimistic 2026 is in the realm of possibility, and that’s even if they get a good return for Joe Ryan. 
For example, let’s say they get James Rowson in as bench coach. That’s possible. I think getting the young hitters on track is truly the best path forward for this team regardless. I also think their rotation can be good enough IF the lineup does their job. At least good enough to make noise in the central and be interesting in August/september

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

Detroit got career years out of several players.

We can say that, but we must also say that Detroit had more injuries last season than the Twins had in the last 2-3 years. 

Hey, I'm hopeful but the what ifs are daunting. Line up the players and pick position by position. The Twins come out poorly unless the what ifs are 100% and that doesn't work very well because we can say that about other teams as well. For example, Cleveland can say that Buxton goes back to the IL and Keirsey Jr. or Outman do their normal stuff at the same time as DeLauter tears up MLB.  

The front office needs to make some moves or the current roster will be picked by most pundits for a battle with the White Sox.

I'm still hopeful of change and a decent team.

[old nurse]

On 11/11/2025 at 10:19 PM, tony&rodney said:

We can say that, but we must also say that Detroit had more injuries last season than the Twins had in the last 2-3 years. 

Hey, I'm hopeful but the what ifs are daunting. Line up the players and pick position by position. The Twins come out poorly unless the what ifs are 100% and that doesn't work very well because we can say that about other teams as well. For example, Cleveland can say that Buxton goes back to the IL and Keirsey Jr. or Outman do their normal stuff at the same time as DeLauter tears up MLB.  

The front office needs to make some moves or the current roster will be picked by most pundits for a battle with the White Sox.

I'm still hopeful of change and a decent team.

Time number four for attempting to post this as this site continues to have a problem with my server 

Briefly. Regression exists. Feel free to show me it doesn’t.  You responded about injuries this year when the conversation was about next season. You are correct. The injuries could well affect the team next year and cause decline. That wasn’t the intent of your comment, but it is accurate for the situation. 

The Guardians’ pitching injuries are there as a problem. All it takes is a look. If they have a problem, they don’t have a backup. That is what happened to both Detroit and the Twins.

The Twins had Michael Taylor, Manuel Margot (who was decent in Tampa) and Bader as backups for Buxton. Pretty disingenuous to use Outman and Keirsey as an argument. The FO has made efforts to have a decent backup.  If Martin’s post deadline play is an accurate reflection of his talent, neither Keirsey nor Outman would be the backup plans. Why did you forget that Martin plays center field?