Twins Offseason Trade Watch: 3 Players Already Making National Lists

[NYCTK]

I don't know why so many fans are so sure of a significant work stoppage in 2027. There will not be a salary cap, and the owner's won't push too hard for one during negotiations. 

The big lockout in 1994 still saw them playing 113 games in the season, and 144 in the following. I don't see a more dire situation than that today. We all hate the Dodgers, but the fact is that TV viewership was up pretty significantly this season in national broadcasts for both the regular season and post-season. They especially look good in comparison to the NBA. 

 

[GopherJeff]

Understanding the Twins' management logic is a challenge.
In July, the team jettisoned significant talent to cut costs. For the 2nd half of the 2025 season, the on-field product was somewhere between mediocre and terrible and was not fun to watch. No playoffs, not even close.
The Pohlads are baseball team owners to make money. They're not going to be generating a lot of income if the team is non-competitive and fans don't show up. Both seem likely. It seems like a downward spiral to me.
As a Twins fan from the beginning, this is overtly disheartening. I see last place, behind the White Sox, in 2026.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

I don't know why so many fans are so sure of a significant work stoppage in 2027. 

Concur, even if we we can't predict precisely how it all plays out.  If there is a stoppage, it might get settled in July or earlier, leaving time for a brief "spring training" and at least as long a season as was in 2020, leading to a relatively normal post-season which is a great deal of the value assigned to acquiring talent at the trade deadline.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I have no idea - if we think that trading three players with real value to get prospects that are going to lead us to the promised land we must not be watching the same talent evaluators who have led us to this dismal place.  Teams like the Pirates, A's, Angels have been playing the trade game for years and their treadmills are going no where.  Without a real plan and the people in place to implement it we just watch former players in the playoffs for other teams. 

Reality is often harsh. We have, as stated in quote above,  watched these scenarios play out on numerous occasions.

The offseason is my time to imagine, or reimagine if you will, a change in the fortunes of our favorite nine. My plans are severely displaced from reality, even if a trade idea here or there can be viewed as mutually beneficial for the involved clubs.

Many of us as Twins fans grasp for whatever hope we can identify as a possibility, however remote. Thus, a few see Matt Wallner playing right field in an adequate fashion and playing 150 games with an OPS in the high .800's and it could happen. Others feel Royce Lewis will heal and become a superstar, reliving those grand slams type moments as a regular feature of his play. Byron Buxton finally played 126 games and came to the plate a personal record times, 542 PA. Next year, surely Buck will play more than 140 games and be even better. It's what we do as fans. We want the team to play exciting baseball and win half of their games with an opportunity to reach the playoffs and once there to suffer magic like in 1987 and 1991.

The fight is to avoid the darkness. Numerous people have mentioned 2027 as a year when baseball is unlikely to be played or if played to be truncated. Often those comments seem wishful and include cries for a salary cap. The reality doesn't support even a month long lockout. Caps are not in baseball's view yet. Look around the league. The Mets lose money short term but their valuation has doubled in the past few years. The books are closed and a cap requires open books. The odds of open books exist but probably trail the Twins odds of winning back to back World Series titles in 2026 and 2027. In fact only a few teams lose money. There is a near zero chance 16 teams vote to wash away a season or any significant part of a year. The MLBPA won't just fold with a flush hand. Expect more revenue sharing attached to penalties for overspending and underspending increasing as a form of control. The genie cannot be put back in the bottle. The Dodgers total outlay with penalties will exceed $550M while some teams are under $80M. The goal will be to decrease one number and increase the lower figure.

mikelink45 might be correct that the guys who evaluated players and constructed the rosters to reach this point are hopeless but I'm a fool hoping and thinking that people can change and there can be changes to bring some light to the team. 

 

[David Maro]

They will be moving Ryan this off season because you can't have a unhappy player in the dugout. His personality is close to Sonny Gray and wouldn't be good. He is not going to waste another year pitching for a last place team. The money owed to Lopez is a problem,but his personality is not a issue for the team. If you trade Jeffers with no one to be primary catcher that's a bad idea. He's bat is not the only thing that will be missed. With all the young SP who he has worked with would have to see change. 

Again this all comes back to the bad ownership and clueless FO. It will be another unwatchable season of Twins baseball.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I just went through last year’s list. One player moved that had two years of service time remaining and in arbitration. 

The Marlins traded Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies. They received Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd. Caba is currently their 5th ranked prospect and an FV45. Boyd was an FV40 at the time of the trade but he has dropped entirely off the Marlin prospect list. Luzardo started 32 games and went 15-7 for the Phillies.

I just don’t see how the Marlins benefitted by trading him with that extra year of service time. The only benefit was the 6.625 million dollar in savings. Teams don’t get value by trading players with two full years of service time. That is why it doesn’t happen very often. It isn’t the Guardians path. It isn’t the Brewers path. It shouldn’t be the Twins path with Ryan.

The Marlins were foolish to identify a slick shortstop with a weak bat as a return for Luzardo and they didn't trust that Luzardo would escape further injuries. The Phillies were the first on the scene because their GM is always in touch with everyone.

Joe Ryan is a more stable pitcher than Luzardo imo. I agree that it is generally not a good plan to trade a guy with multiple years remaining on their contracts/control. In the case of Ryan, I do think the Twins could extract the type of value necessary for their team. The big question remains - Can Falvey identify and require the needed return? If not, the Twins should keep Ryan. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

The team that we have at present is a 55 win team. With some improvement maybe they win over 60. Maybe. The team that won 70 games last season is gone. It doesn't exist. Some deals will be made. Last seasons payroll was 135mil. This team's payroll is already at 95mil. Some deals will be made. The team let out that they lost 40 mil this year. They aren't going to go out and spend 40mil so they can win 75-80 games, maybe. It would be dereliction of duties for the FO not to use the assets on hand not to improve the future of the club. Deals have to be made. I too don't like that Falvey is still in charge. But he is. In the meantime he needs to continue to operate as any FO head would, which is to look at how he can put this organization in the best position moving forward.   I would be very surprised not to see Jeffers and Lopez moved by the end of the upcoming winter meetings. 50-50 Ryan is moved this off season. 

I concur with others, 2027 is not going to be a not season totally. I'm personally fine with taking the hit in 2026 of a bad season. I could care less if we win 55 or we win 70. But play the cards right and in 2028 and 2029 we could actually be relevant again. And though I desire Falvey to be gone I can still see that he has made good trades. Getting Duran, Ryan and Pablo Lopez in trades and signing Santana and Bader too as FA's.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I know if I were Joe Ryan, I would be having my agent suggesting that a trade to a larger market team be worked out. I would want to be somewhere for the next year or two where a logical long-term extension  could be worked out. That isn't a possibility here imo.

[Parfigliano]

42 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The team that we have at present is a 55 win team. With some improvement maybe they win over 60. Maybe. The team that won 70 games last season is gone. It doesn't exist. Some deals will be made. Last seasons payroll was 135mil. This team's payroll is already at 95mil. Some deals will be made. The team let out that they lost 40 mil this year. They aren't going to go out and spend 40mil so they can win 75-80 games, maybe. It would be dereliction of duties for the FO not to use the assets on hand not to improve the future of the club. Deals have to be made. I too don't like that Falvey is still in charge. But he is. In the meantime he needs to continue to operate as any FO head would, which is to look at how he can put this organization in the best position moving forward.   I would be very surprised not to see Jeffers and Lopez moved by the end of the upcoming winter meetings. 50-50 Ryan is moved this off season. 

I concur with others, 2027 is not going to be a not season totally. I'm personally fine with taking the hit in 2026 of a bad season. I could care less if we win 55 or we win 70. But play the cards right and in 2028 and 2029 we could actually be relevant again. And though I desire Falvey to be gone I can still see that he has made good trades. Getting Duran, Ryan and Pablo Lopez in trades and signing Santana and Bader too as FA's.

Who believes the Pohlad's when they say they lost $40 mil this year?

[Cris E]

I think the whole thing comes down to money, not strategy. Without money they will lose in any situation, and with some money they can get back on track within a year or two.

With some spending they could be close to .500 right away. If they trade away these players the resulting short-term bridge team will lose until new talent comes aboard. But if they rely on the system providing a new SS, a new catcher, a bullpen, a new 3b (once Lewis proves he can't be trusted) all at one time they will lose because those parts are not all in their minor leagues today. At some point they will need to spend and the day that starts happening is the day they'll regain fans and make some money. Losing games is losing money, and as bad as the current TV contract is, it's made worse by fielding a bad team. 

So it all comes down to Pohlad fortitude. I am sad, for they are soulless and weak.

That puts Falvey on the spot to decide how to go about saving money. That means a choice to add something rather than a choice to dump something.  The monster return for these guys is a MLB-ready starting catcher and/or shortstop. That 18 year old catcher we got from PHI may be terrific, but he's exactly 42 light years away from relevance. He just won't contribute in 2027.  Maybe we get a SS from BAL or that young catcher from LAD, but it only works as a blockbuster for talent rather than away from payroll. 

And it entails a commitment from ownership to start spending again in the not-too-distant future.  Getting great players is swell, but great means they're more mature, and thus probably close to arb dollars. There aren't enough top rookie players to run a payroll on them not being paid, so the Pohlads will need to spend enough to keep 15-20 of them around long enough to win, whether it be 85 games or a world series (and then be able to sell the team for $8 billion dollars and be free of this tedious nightmare of MLB ownership!)  I'm only kind of laughing, because saying you want to tear it down and build something great sort of implies that you still want to own it when it's great, and that'll cost money.  I guess this is a plea to stave off the destruction and work towards a sale, which is now more possible given the debt pay-down. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

19 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Who believes the Pohlad's when they say they lost $40 mil this year?

Oh I don't believe for a moment that they lost 40mil. But it however is the public stance that they have taken. And that isn't changing.

 

Edit: They may have lost 40mil somewhere, but I don't for a minute believe it was on the Twins.

[Cris E]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I just went through last year’s list. One player moved that had two years of service time remaining and in arbitration. 

The Marlins traded Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies. They received Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd. Caba is currently their 5th ranked prospect and an FV45. Boyd was an FV40 at the time of the trade but he has dropped entirely off the Marlin prospect list. Luzardo started 32 games and went 15-7 for the Phillies.

I just don’t see how the Marlins benefitted by trading him with that extra year of service time. The only benefit was the 6.625 million dollar in savings. Teams don’t get value by trading players with two full years of service time. That is why it doesn’t happen very often. It isn’t the Guardians path. It isn’t the Brewers path. It shouldn’t be the Twins path with Ryan.

I love this point. Teams just don't do these trades because a player with two years left that's worth a ton in trade is probably better than most of the prospects that you'd get back. There are exceptions like Juan Soto, but he returned a ton because he was a guy that never comes along rather than a guy who never comes up in trade talks.  Joe Ryan is a good starting pitcher, but he's no ace. The Twins need a starting SS or C and most teams won't make that trade for a #2 or #3.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, David Maro said:

They will be moving Ryan this off season because you can't have a unhappy player in the dugout. His personality is close to Sonny Gray and wouldn't be good. He is not going to waste another year pitching for a last place team. The money owed to Lopez is a problem,but his personality is not a issue for the team. If you trade Jeffers with no one to be primary catcher that's a bad idea. He's bat is not the only thing that will be missed. With all the young SP who he has worked with would have to see change. 

Again this all comes back to the bad ownership and clueless FO. It will be another unwatchable season of Twins baseball.

Why is it a forgone conclusion that Ryan is some sort of unhappy player who will be a cancer to the team?  He was seriously jerked around on deadline day and expressed his displeasure.  So what?  I know I would have.  Do you really think that Ryan is going to pitch badly just to show somebody he can do that and sabotage the Twins' season?  He's not going to quit and he knows that his best ticket to a big payday is to pitch really well for his team.  He's not stupid. 

Ryan is a weird guy, but not a bad guy.  He's wired a little bit different.  Lot's of star athletes are.  Just because we don't really understand what makes them tick doesn't mean that things are bad.  

[tony&rodney]

Jack Flaherty decided to go back to Detroit (exercised his option) and will make $20M next season. Detroit also has Casey Mize and Reese Olson to fill in as #3,4, 5 starting pitchers behind Tarik Skubal. Detroit will be looking for a #2 starting pitcher and it could be worth a call.

Joe Ryan is a real gem and if the return is not a deal, keep him. I have no idea where people find information to indicate Ryan is an angry elf who will somehow poison the clubhouse. He seems like the type of guy everyone likes to be around and we know he loves to pitch. Selling Joe Ryan low would be a mistake. Receiving a Garret Crochet return makes sense. Crochet is younger and has now had two really good seasons. Ryan has had four solid seasons. His fit on a team working to get to a World Series should be obvious. There will be teams willing to deal. They must pay though.

I do not have a handle on how much value Pablo Lopez has across baseball. Last year Pablo missed a bunch of innings but he was really good for the six previous years. A clean physical with substantiating physician notes would increase his worth. His contract will not inhibit many teams from having an interest. Lopez may not have the value of Ryan but it shouldn't be too far off. I prefer that the Twins only trade one if they must make a move. 

Ryan Jeffers is in his last year as a Twin. The Twins are unlikely to offer him a qualifying offer and thus he would be gone without any return if kept in 2026. Catchers are rarely traded mid season due to the necessity of working with most of the staff in Spring Training. If an offer is put forth that strengthens the organization, the twins need to trade Jeffers. Place your bets now if you think the Twins are going to be a championship team in 2026, Jeffers final campaign as a Twin. Jeffers should be kept if only embarrassing offers are forwarded.

The Minnesota Twins have a real problem with the sorry state of their ownership group and that is compounded by the poor efforts in the last few years by the front office. People can change and I'm hoping for some good outcomes this winter.

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I just went through last year’s list. One player moved that had two years of service time remaining and in arbitration. 

The Marlins traded Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies. They received Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd. Caba is currently their 5th ranked prospect and an FV45. Boyd was an FV40 at the time of the trade but he has dropped entirely off the Marlin prospect list. Luzardo started 32 games and went 15-7 for the Phillies.

I just don’t see how the Marlins benefitted by trading him with that extra year of service time. The only benefit was the 6.625 million dollar in savings. Teams don’t get value by trading players with two full years of service time. That is why it doesn’t happen very often. It isn’t the Guardians path. It isn’t the Brewers path. It shouldn’t be the Twins path with Ryan.

If you are researching something... You got my attention... I'm reading it.

However... You haven't convinced me yet.

I spent September and October walking around and thinking about that very question.

Would I trade Joe Ryan or not? I could never justify the many hours of all consuming thought I spent on that question. I'm sorry Officer... I didn't notice the stop sign... I wasn't focused because I was thinking about trading Joe Ryan. 

The Twins certainly don't need to trade him. There are many paths a GM can take to get back to respectability. I fixated on the Joe Ryan question in my head because I felt it would a key question path defining decision. 

After all that thought. I've decided that they should trade Joe Ryan this off-season. 

1. He is the only player on the Twins roster who POTENTIALLY brings back a Walter Jenkins type prospect in a trade. I understand that teams are not paying Walter Jenkins type prospects for anyone anymore but Ryan is the only player on the Twins roster that the Twins could rightfully ask for the top prospect from each team. They may not get it... but they can ask with Joe Ryan's value. We moved an entire bullpen with extra years of service and got back volume... of decent next level down talent. Ryan is the guy who can take that level of talent up a notch. Walter Jenkins would be the other player who could get the top prospect from other clubs and that would make no sense. We want to add to Jenkins. 

2. If nobody is parting with their top top prospects. Than Yeah... pull him off the trade block and let him start opening day and then fire Falvey immediately afterwards for not developing top end prospects since acquiring them is impossible because Ryan can't get it done. 

3. His value is sure to go down from where it is right now. He has to be at peak value. His trade value only goes up if he is better next year than he was this year and he would probably have to be Skubal like this year to make up for the loss of a year and the higher arbitration pay in his last year of arb. Speaking of Skubal. Perhaps the best pitcher in baseball. Ryan's current trade value with two years of control is probably similar to Skubal's current trade value with one year left. That's how good Ryan would have to be to maintain his trade value next off season. 

4. He could get hurt in 2026. Pitchers get hurt often. If he needs any kind of surgery... That could crater his trade value to zero.  

5. I want a young slugging stereotypical 1B and I want a young athletic SS. Joe Ryan is the only guy who can legitimately get me one of those two things or both. 

6. Milwaukee and Cleveland are much further along with this sort of thing. The Twins just changed course 3 months of ago and has some catching up to do. We are 3 months removed from Ty France playing every day at 1B. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

mikelink45 might be correct that the guys who evaluated players and constructed the rosters to reach this point are hopeless but I'm a fool hoping and thinking that people can change and there can be changes to bring some light to the team. 

I'm with you. 

I think it's more likely that the Twins front office chose a different path that fell apart on them after the RSN money went away. It produced a 4 playoff berths but it fell apart and now they are going to take a different path. Perhaps this new path is the path they should have been on all along. However, I refuse to assume that Falvey and his staff are idiots. 

You can't be an idiot and get one of these 30 jobs. You just can't. Can you be worse than your 29 other peers... Yes but you can't be an idiot.   

[jorgenswest]

@Riverbrian

1) I don’t think they can get that elite prospect and I don’t think they got enough for Duran or Varland.

If they can get that elite prospect I am in. Those players are moved much less frequently in the last 10 years. I don’t want them to settle for the FV50 group. The Fangraphs curve of future value shapes like this.

• FV65: 2
• FV60: 5
• FV55: 16
• FV50: 72
• FV45: 184 (49 have 45+)

I think they can get the next tier in a year or at least at the deadline this year if they are not competing. 

For Duran they received a 45+ and a 45. I really think they could have received something similar at this deadline.

2) Ryan’s peak is also valuable to them and I believe it is these first two years of arbitration while his salary is very manageable. I really respect the Guardians and Brewers. They keep their players at that peak. Burnes was traded with one year left. Williams was traded with one year left. Hader was 1+ but they traded him in a season they didn’t make the playoffs and Williams was ready for the closer job. The Guardians traded Lindor in his final year of arbitration. They aren’t trading players at their peak. Why should the Twins?

Factoring in surplus value Ryan has more than twice as much now as a year from now. They need to retain players at their peak value as the Brewers and Guardians do. In 2023 Ryan wasn’t ready to be that impact playoff pitcher yet. He was last year and is now. They shouldn’t trade that away unless they are blown away with an offer. Let’s not trade it away for some FV50s. The odds are a player at that future value will not be impactful. Even FV55s are questionable. Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis are recent Twins FV55s on the major league roster.

Counting playoff impact Duran probably had at least three times as much excess value when he was traded as opposed to being traded after the 2026. Did they get that value?

Note: I use Fangraphs for the ease of their data. I also appreciate that they are conservative in their player valuations. It should look like a curve. The number 100 player in the MLB pipeline is an overall 55. I don’t know how deep their FV55s go but it is past 100. That is a future of an above average regular. Those players are in the league and regulars well into their 30s. It isn’t possible we have over 100 of those above average regulars in the pipeline right now. I think MLB has motivation to overhype the prospects. Teams like the Twins need to sell that overhyped prospect to their fan base when they trade away their few valuable assets.

[Riverbrian]

I totally understand that many here will not be comfortable with my punt the catcher position idea. I see  our catching depth chart and cry at night. 

However... Ryan Jeffers. His trade value probably went up with Perez remaining with the Royals. I don't know how much catching Perez has left in his body but he did catch 92 games last year. 

With Perez off the market. Realmuto is probably the only big name catcher in free agency. If Realmuto is it... Jeffers trade value due to scarcity... in theory... is bound to go up. 

Go get Rortvedt cheaply when the Dodgers DFA him. Give Parada a roster spot and cash in Jeffers before we lose him for nothing. 

I know it's scary... but I think we should do it. 

[Cagycat]

Go ahead and gut the rest of the team👹 This is what this organization has done for the last couple of years. Build around your remaining starters and some of what you have left . Try to use what is left of what gray matter you have available. Stay the course and rebuild within.

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

@Riverbrian

1) I don’t think they can get that elite prospect and I don’t think they got enough for Duran or Varland.

If they can get that elite prospect I am in. Those players are moved much less frequently in the last 10 years. I don’t want them to settle for the FV50 group. The Fangraphs curve of future value shapes like this.

• FV65: 2
• FV60: 5
• FV55: 16
• FV50: 72
• FV45: 184 (49 have 45+)

I think they can get the next tier in a year or at least at the deadline this year if they are not competing. 

For Duran they received a 45+ and a 45. I really think they could have received something similar at this deadline.

2) Ryan’s peak is also valuable to them and I believe it is these first two years of arbitration while his salary is very manageable. I really respect the Guardians and Brewers. They keep their players at that peak. Burnes was traded with one year left. Williams was traded with one year left. Hader was 1+ but they traded him in a season they didn’t make the playoffs and Williams was ready for the closer job. The Guardians traded Lindor in his final year of arbitration. They aren’t trading players at their peak. Why should the Twins?

Factoring in surplus value Ryan has more than twice as much now as a year from now. They need to retain players at their peak value as the Brewers and Guardians do. In 2023 Ryan wasn’t ready to be that impact playoff pitcher yet. He was last year and is now. They shouldn’t trade that away unless they are blown away with an offer. Let’s not trade it away for some FV50s. The odds are a player at that future value will not be impactful. Even FV55s are questionable. Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis are recent Twins FV55s on the major league roster.

Counting playoff impact Duran probably had at least three times as much excess value when he was traded as opposed to being traded after the 2026. Did they get that value?

Note: I use Fangraphs for the ease of their data. I also appreciate that they are conservative in their player valuations. It should look like a curve. The number 100 player in the MLB pipeline is an overall 55. I don’t know how deep their FV55s go but it is past 100. That is a future of an above average regular. Those players are in the league and regulars well into their 30s. It isn’t possible we have over 100 of those above average regulars in the pipeline right now. I think MLB has motivation to overhype the prospects. Teams like the Twins need to sell that overhyped prospect to their fan base when they trade away their few valuable assets.

When it comes to ratings. I look at them... I find them interesting... I even accept them as more knowledgeable than my knowledge on prospects which isn't a high bar to clear... However... I tend to be a little more guarded because it's one opinion. Other sources may have a different rating and that's OK. Diego Cartaya was a 55. Mick Abel was once a 55... now he's a 45. Kelenic was a 60. Pache was a 60. Kiriloff was a 60.  William Contreras was a 45. PCA was a 45. 

Did we get enough for Duran. I don't know. Did he have to be traded at the deadline. I don't know. I'm sure the Twins made their phone calls and decided that Tait and Abel was the best deal. 

Trey Yesavage has a future value of 50. He sure looks like one of the best young arms to come around in a while. If Yesavage is a true 50... Chandler with the Pirates at 60 is going to be amazing. Skenes was a 60... He looks like an 80. Franco was once an 80 so I know the ratings can reach FV80. I've heard rumor... Don't know if it's true but a rumor from wherever that the Twins turned down Duran to the Yankees for the Martian. He was a FV50. Is one 50 better than two 45's. I don't know. 

Speaking of Rumors... Don't know if they are true but rumors suggest that Kwan is on the block and rumors are that he was on the block at the trade deadline so I don't think Cleveland is operating with a formula... I think it's case by case... current team context driven. Do they think they are in contention context and if so... do they have an acceptable replacement for Kwan if they trade him. 

I don't know but the only think that I can rationalize in that regard is this. Cleveland and Milwaukee are much further along in their process. Cleveland has the Manzardo's, DeLauters, Williams, Cecconi's in place. Milwaukee has the Chourios, Turangs, Frelicks, in place. The Twins are just getting started in the process and have some catching up to do. Cleveland and Milwaukee can probably comfortably believe they will be in contention in 2026 and act accordingly just sticking with the process that has carried them thus far. 

The Twins... The just did a 180 at the end of July and are still trying to accumulate Manzardos, Turangs and Frelicks to catch up. The front office may think this team could contend... Even I will say that they are probably closer than most on Twinsdaily feel they are but can the Twins really act like 2026 contenders when constructing their 2026 roster. 

Keeping Ryan for 2026... it's risky. If he blows a ligament. His value is gone. 

[jorgenswest]

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

When it comes to ratings. I look at them... I find them interesting... I even accept them as more knowledgeable than my knowledge on prospects which isn't a high bar to clear... However... I tend to be a little more guarded because it's one opinion. Other sources may have a different rating and that's OK. Diego Cartaya was a 55. Mick Abel was once a 55... now he's a 45. Kelenic was a 60. Pache was a 60. Kiriloff was a 60.  William Contreras was a 45. PCA was a 45. 

Did we get enough for Duran. I don't know. Did he have to be traded at the deadline. I don't know. I'm sure the Twins made their phone calls and decided that Tait and Abel was the best deal. 

Trey Yesavage has a future value of 50. He sure looks like one of the best young arms to come around in a while. If Yesavage is a true 50... Chandler with the Pirates at 60 is going to be amazing. Skenes was a 60... He looks like an 80. Franco was once an 80 so I know the ratings can reach FV80. I've heard rumor... Don't know if it's true but a rumor from wherever that the Twins turned down Duran to the Yankees for the Martian. He was a FV50. Is one 50 better than two 45's. I don't know. 

Speaking of Rumors... Don't know if they are true but rumors suggest that Kwan is on the block and rumors are that he was on the block at the trade deadline so I don't think Cleveland is operating with a formula... I think it's case by case... current team context driven. Do they think they are in contention context and if so... do they have an acceptable replacement for Kwan if they trade him. 

I don't know but the only think that I can rationalize in that regard is this. Cleveland and Milwaukee are much further along in their process. Cleveland has the Manzardo's, DeLauters, Williams, Cecconi's in place. Milwaukee has the Chourios, Turangs, Frelicks, in place. The Twins are just getting started in the process and have some catching up to do. Cleveland and Milwaukee can probably comfortably believe they will be in contention in 2026 and act accordingly just sticking with the process that has carried them thus far. 

The Twins... The just did a 180 at the end of July and are still trying to accumulate Manzardos, Turangs and Frelicks to catch up. The front office may think this team could contend... Even I will say that they are probably closer than most on Twinsdaily feel they are but can the Twins really act like 2026 contenders when constructing their 2026 roster. 

Keeping Ryan for 2026... it's risky. If he blows a ligament. His value is gone. 

My point is that they can wait and still get the 50s for Ryan and should wait.

This is also a Twins surplus. No one has more FV45 or better players than the Twins. That doesn’t include guys that were FV50 or better in Roden, Festa, Matthews or Bradley. At some point they are going to need to invest major league time into the guys they have and no team has more. Roden has played 1B. He crushed the ball in the minors. Let’s start with him.

They need to develop what they have and Ryan and Lopez are going to helpful to the development of the pitchers this year. Trade them next offseason or even at the deadline of their last year of control.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

My point is that they can wait and still get the 50s for Ryan and should wait.

This is also a Twins surplus. No one has more FV45 or better players than the Twins. That doesn’t include guys that were FV50 or better in Roden, Festa, Matthews or Bradley. At some point they are going to need to invest major league time into the guys they have and no team has more. Roden has played 1B. He crushed the ball in the minors. Let’s start with him.

They need to develop what they have and Ryan and Lopez are going to helpful to the development of the pitchers this year. Trade them next offseason or even at the deadline of their last year of control.

There is more than one path to get where you are going. 

I like the looks of the path I'm standing in front of at the moment but your path may work out better. 

Whatever path is chosen by the front office... they will have to marshal their resources and make it work. 

Who knows... I might shift directions when more clues come in... Like after the 40 man roster is released and I see who was added, who was offered arbitration. 

 

[LyleCole]

I want to reiterate why I think they should trade Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton:

Their trade value will almost certainly never be greater.

Buxton had a MVP level season and played what is for him a Lou Gehrig number of games.  What is even more valuable to a contending team is that his salary of $15.412 million is locked in through 2028.  Even if he hits all of his potential incentives (plate appearances and MVP voting) for almost every team in MLB that is a bargain basement price for a player of that caliber. 

You also have to factor in putting him near the top of a more potent lineup. You don't trade him away for nothing, obviously but I think every contending team would bid against each other to get him for the next three seasons at that price.  For the Twins, $15-20 million is a hefty contract, but to the teams that Buxton would be extremely valuable to, he is the difference maker who could move them past their rivals.

The same issue is with Joe Ryan.  While you can argue all you want if he is a top of the rotation starter or a #2 or 3 starter, for a contending team his $6 million estimated arbitration contract for 2026 is an accounting error.  Ryan has two more years under team control making him huge get for a contending team even if he is SP2 or 3.   Even if Ryan pitches with similar results, or even slightly better, the contract control premium value is ticking away.  If they wait too long, and have to dump him for pure contract reasons his value will plummet, all the while incurring injury risk that could make his value go to zero, or near zero (lets say Bailey Ober's trade value).

For the Twins, the other element to factor in is each of Buxton and Ryan will be over 30 next season.  They simply have to understand that the timeline of the remaining years of their careers and the timeline of the Twins being contenders of any sort do not line up.