Looking Back at the 2019 Twins Draft Class

[Bodie]

"....a valuable piece of the Twins lineup."

Well, that's enough of this "review".  Christ Allmighty!

[Hubie29]

11 hours ago, old nurse said:

You did not offer one shred of evidence that Steer is a better player than Wallner. Now for an unfounded claim on trades, you obviously haven’t looked at the Eds outfield problems. They did try to play Steer there but it was worse defense than he had in the infield. 

You have your reasons for liking Wallner i have mine for not. You can cherry pick stats to support your claim and I could do the same. I found 5+where Steer is the better hitter. It's not worth arguing about. Steer is a better fit for this team as i see it. More of a contact hitter and I will take that any day over a chronic strike out hitter. Steer can match the occasional home run Wallner runs into. Enjoy your day!

[Whitey333]

Im always amazed at the amount of money given to unproven high school and college players in signing bonuses.  I realize it is what it is in MLB but the millions given out to these players before they ever play even 1 professional game is astounding.  Im not just talking Twins of course.  It's like that for every MLB team.  Seems like a very poor system.  Kind of a crap shoot.  No I do not have any solutions.  It just seems like such a waste of money and resources.

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

So you’re saying top third in fWAR and third in the number of players to reach the majors?

Based on the narrative on TD, I’m assuming this is faulty data…

I am sure that a geek with the ability to sort out files from fangraphs can come up with accurate data. The data to me really doesn’t say much about who is  good at drafting. To me the order of who is good at drafting would be determined by dividing fwar by number of players as sort of a first way to look at it. The second way would be to look at players who produced multiple years of fwar at a solid level. That is who is good at drafting

[bean5302]

On 10/25/2025 at 12:05 PM, DJL44 said:

Which is about 2x as productive as the league overall.

26 guys on a roster.

6 years of team control.

that's 4.3 new guys a year required.

Some come from free agency, some come from extensions, some come from trades, but they all need to come from somewhere.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

You have your reasons for liking Wallner i have mine for not. You can cherry pick stats to support your claim and I could do the same. I found 5+where Steer is the better hitter. It's not worth arguing about. Steer is a better fit for this team as i see it. More of a contact hitter and I will take that any day over a chronic strike out hitter. Steer can match the occasional home run Wallner runs into. Enjoy your day!

You can have an opinion. You can accuse someone of cherry picking stats when you have no idea what they mean. Neither player has shown that they are a player to build around. One is no better than the other, one is no worse. The Reds number 1 prospect is a 1b/3b  they traded for Hayes and his long term contract this year knowing Sal Stewart would be a major league player in 2026. That tells you what the Reds think of Steer. 

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

26 guys on a roster.

6 years of team control.

that's 4.3 new guys a year required.

Some come from free agency, some come from extensions, some come from trades, but they all need to come from somewhere.

Roughly 1/3 come from international free agency. I agree that they need to find 3 new players a year if they are building solely through acquiring amateurs. The hit rate for that is somewhere between 1 and 2 players a year per team so the Twins need to be about twice as good as the rest of the league if they want to build only through the draft. It's not a reliable way to build a contender, though it is a cheap way to field a team. If you only get 6 years of team control, then you're not going to have any players over 30. Established, veteran players are pretty useful on a winning team.

[Hubie29]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

You can have an opinion. You can accuse someone of cherry picking stats when you have no idea what they mean. Neither player has shown that they are a player to build around. One is no better than the other, one is no worse. The Reds number 1 prospect is a 1b/3b  they traded for Hayes and his long term contract this year knowing Sal Stewart would be a major league player in 2026. That tells you what the Reds think of Steer. 

Thanks for schooling me!  I do appreciate it! And I didn't say build around anyone did I? I just prefer Steer over Wallner. But then almost anyone over Wallner. 

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Thanks for schooling me!  I do appreciate it! And I didn't say build around anyone did I? I just prefer Steer over Wallner. But then almost anyone over Wallner. 

No you didn’t say build. There is also really no point in adding a player that is not adding to your team.  Like Larnach and Clemens, he can cheaply fill a spot until the team can find someone better 

[Hubie29]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

No you didn’t say build. There is also really no point in adding a player that is not adding to your team.  Like Larnach and Clemens, he can cheaply fill a spot until the team can find someone better 

Point taken. But this team finds it very hard to improve through trades. Lateral moves or trades for the "future" seem to be the norm. I would just rather have Steer in the lineup than Wallner. Nothing more nothing less. 

[Trov]

On 10/25/2025 at 9:06 AM, Hubie29 said:

Uffda! Looking at this list pretty much explains the Twins futility, because it's typical of many years of drafts. Wouldn't it be nice to trade one marginal player on this list for one that got away? Wallner for Steer. We would then have our 1st baseman. 

What?  You think Steer is better than Wallner?  Steer has been league average hitter over his short career, but below average last year, with a 94 OPS+.  His defense at first is not bad.  Wallner even in a down year still was above average hitter with OPS+ 110.  

Steer has been fine for Reds, but I would not look to trade him straight up for Wallner.  I would point out Steer is only playing first because he is terrible on defense everywhere else. 

[Hubie29]

9 hours ago, Trov said:

What?  You think Steer is better than Wallner?  Steer has been league average hitter over his short career, but below average last year, with a 94 OPS+.  His defense at first is not bad.  Wallner even in a down year still was above average hitter with OPS+ 110.  

Steer has been fine for Reds, but I would not look to trade him straight up for Wallner.  I would point out Steer is only playing first because he is terrible on defense everywhere else. 

I am more into contact hitter than a home run every 10 -15 AB.  Steer actually hit only one less HR than Wallner and struck out less. That's all. Neither one is a hall of famer.  Just tired of Wallners ineptness.  Only reason he has a higher OPS is the occasional HR.  Not a Wallner fan.  Sorry.

[David HK]

On 10/26/2025 at 1:04 AM, DJL44 said:

Drafts produce on average MLB 1-1/2 players per team. This 2019 draft is pretty average.

That said, we're doing pretty well drafting guys that make the majors for other teams! 😂

[Riverbrian]

On 10/25/2025 at 12:04 PM, DJL44 said:

Drafts produce on average MLB 1-1/2 players per team. This 2019 draft is pretty average.

I'm not questioning your sources. There are obviously parameters set on the data that produces the number you quote.  

I had to count for myself. I did a rough count... I may have missed a name here or there, I certainly didn't double or triple check for accuracy. I literally tried to count as quickly as possible in order to not spend a lot of time on it. I probably included players who were drafted and didn't sign in 2019. I didn't take note of length of time in the majors... but I counted 196 players from the 2019 draft that have played in the major leagues. Let's say I over shot or under shot by 20 we are still quite aways from the 45 players on average per draft that would represent 1.5 players per team.   

If true. 1.5 players per team per draft will take on average 17.3 Years to staff the 26 man rosters of all 30 teams. There has to be parameters that need to be investigated.

I'd guess that a bell curve probably needs to be implemented to the 1.5 data you are quoting because 2019 would probably be a peak draft year reflective of the peak of a typical ballplayer.

In other words... there are probably more players in the major leagues from the 2019 draft than players in the major league from the 2025 draft or the 2005 draft. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not questioning your sources. There are obviously parameters set on the data that produces the number you quote.  

I had to count for myself. I did a rough count... I may have missed a name here or there, I certainly didn't double or triple check for accuracy. I literally tried to count as quickly as possible in order to not spend a lot of time on it. I probably included players who were drafted and didn't sign in 2019. I didn't take note of length of time in the majors... but I counted 196 players from the 2019 draft that have played in the major leagues. Let's say I over shot or under shot by 20 we are still quite aways from the 45 players on average per draft that would represent 1.5 players per team.   

If true. 1.5 players per team per draft will take on average 17.3 Years to staff the 26 man rosters of all 30 teams. There has to be parameters that need to be investigated.

I'd guess that a bell curve probably needs to be implemented to the 1.5 data you are quoting because 2019 would probably be a peak draft year reflective of the peak of a typical ballplayer.

In other words... there are probably more players in the major leagues from the 2019 draft than players in the major league from the 2025 draft or the 2005 draft. 

There are a lot of players who have played in the major leagues who don't contribute much. Here's a good study covering 15 drafts.

The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study – Society for American Baseball Research

Round / % who play in majors / % who play 3+ seasons

1 / 67% / 47%

2 / 49% / 31%

3 / 40% / 22%

4 / 35% / 18%

5 / 33% / 18%

6 / 24% / 11%

7 / 20% / 9%

8 / 24% / 10%

9 / 18% / 8%

10 / 18% / 8%

11-15 / 13% / 5%

Adding up all the percentages you get

All / 3.92 / 2.07

On average a team will see 4 draftees reach the majors and 2 play 3+ seasons. That's the base rate. If you can get 2 draft picks per draft to play 3+ seasons, you're an average team.

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

On average a team will see 4 draftees reach the majors and 2 play 3+ seasons. That's the base rate. If you can get 2 draft picks per draft to play 3+ seasons, you're an average team.

Now, with the base rate as context, we can judge the Twins 2019 draft

Reached the majors

8 - Wallner, Steer, Gipson-Long, Legumina, Headrick, Laweryson, Varland, Julien

Played 3+ seasons

4 - Wallner, Steer, Varland, Julien

That's a decent draft. Two players with 3+ WAR and one more with a chance to exceed that.

[Riverbrian]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are a lot of players who have played in the major leagues who don't contribute much. Here's a good study covering 15 drafts.

The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study – Society for American Baseball Research

Round / % who play in majors / % who play 3+ seasons

1 / 67% / 47%

2 / 49% / 31%

3 / 40% / 22%

4 / 35% / 18%

5 / 33% / 18%

6 / 24% / 11%

7 / 20% / 9%

8 / 24% / 10%

9 / 18% / 8%

10 / 18% / 8%

11-15 / 13% / 5%

Adding up all the percentages you get

All / 3.92 / 2.07

On average a team will see 4 draftees reach the majors and 2 play 3+ seasons. That's the base rate. If you can get 2 draft picks per draft to play 3+ seasons, you're an average team.

Thanks for the parameters. 

When I get a chance I'll read through it because it looks interesting.

It's from 8 years ago but I'd imagine it's still relevant because there are X amount of players that play in a given season and only X amount of ways that they enter into professional baseball and I assume the overwhelming majority are through the draft with IFA's taking up the majority of the rest. 

 

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Thanks for the parameters. 

When I get a chance I'll read through it because it looks interesting.

It's from 8 years ago but I'd imagine it's still relevant because there are X amount of players that play in a given season and only X amount of ways that they enter into professional baseball and I assume the overwhelming majority are through the draft with IFA's taking up the majority of the rest. 

International signings represent about 1/3 of all players now.

Based on the success rate of recent Japanese players, I'd say there are roughly 60 MLB players on rosters in Japan. I occasionally wonder what would happen if a team decided to bring over an all-Japanese 40-man roster, including the managers and staff but excluding the players already here. Could that team make the playoffs?